🚨 YEAR-END MARKET ALERT: Jobless Claims CRUSH Estimates As Futures Wobble Into 2026 - NVDA China Demand Explodes 📈

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COMPARE PLANS

🎯 KEY THINGS TO KNOW - TRADING SESSION AHEAD

✅ MAJOR BEAT: Jobless claims plunge to 199K vs 220K est. - Strongest labor market reading heading into 2026
✅ NVIDIA CATALYST: China demand surge - 2M+ H200 chip orders worth $54B, production ramping Q2 2026
✅ CRYPTO MINERS EXPLODE: WULF upgraded to $24 PT (Outperform) on HPC transition
✅ FUTURES FLAT: ES trading 6,939 (-0.08%), light volume expected in half-day session
✅ WARREN BUFFETT'S LAST DAY: BRK.A CEO transition after 60-year run, 5.5M% returns
✅ TRUMP IRAN TALKS: Netanyahu discussing potential 2026 strikes with incoming admin

MARKETS CLOSE EARLY: 1:00 PM ET equity close | Bond markets 2:00 PM ET

📊 OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT

S&P 500 E-Mini Futures ($ES)

• Current: 6,939.00 (-5.25, -0.08%)

• Key Resistance: 6,970 (H4 Long Breakout)

• Critical Support: 6,922 (L3 Long Support)

• Downside Trigger: 6,913 breakdown

Technical Setup: Consolidation pattern continues in thin holiday trading. Bulls need reclaim of 6,942 to target 6,948 → 6,952 → 6,956+. Bears activate on break below 6,925 with 6,913 downside target.

Index Futures Overview

• Dow Futures: -35 points (-0.1%)

• Nasdaq 100 Futures: -0.1%

• 2025 YTD Performance (as of Dec 30 close):

  • S&P 500: +17% (heading for 3rd straight double-digit year)

  • Nasdaq Comp: +21% (AI rally dominates)

  • Dow Jones: +13% (hindered by lack of tech)

🔥 BREAKING: JOBLESS CLAIMS DEMOLISH ESTIMATES

Economic Data - 8:30 AM ET Release

Initial Claims: 199K (Est: 220K, Prev: 214K)
Continuing Claims: 1.866M (Prev: 1.923M)

MARKET IMPACT: 🟢 BULLISH

This is a 21,000-claim beat vs expectations - one of the strongest labor readings of 2025. The 4-week moving average now sits lower YoY, signaling:

✅ Labor market remains resilient entering 2026
✅ "No hire, no fire" environment continues
✅ Fed rate cut expectations remain intact for 2026
✅ Consumer spending power sustained

Trading Implication: Supports risk-on positioning into year-end, validates soft-landing narrative that has fueled equity gains.

💎 HOT CATALYST TRADES FOR DECEMBER 31

🔥 TRADE #1: NVIDIA ($NVDA) - China Demand Explosion

Price: $187.54 (Dec 30 close)
Catalyst: Reuters exclusive reveals NVDA has 2M+ H200 chip orders from China worth ~$54B, with Taiwan Semiconductor ramping production in Q2 2026
Trump Deal: U.S. government gets 25% of China revenue

Setup:

• Entry Zone: $186-$189

• Targets: $195 (+4%), $205 (+9%), $215 (+15%)

• Stop: $182 (below recent consolidation)

• Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 5/5

Why It's Hot: Initial shipments of 40K-80K H200 chips expected to generate $1.28B-$2.56B in Q1 fiscal 2027. This reopens the massive Chinese market that was frozen in April 2025. Analysts expect earnings estimates to increase once this additional revenue is factored in.

Options Flow: Look for Feb/March $200 calls - high conviction bullish positioning
Risk: Tariff escalation, China regulatory pushback

🔥 TRADE #2: TERAWULF ($WULF) - Crypto Miner to AI Powerhouse

Price: $11.34 (Dec 30 close)
Catalyst: Keefe Bruyette upgraded to Outperform with $24 PT (up from $9.50) on high-performance compute transition
Price Target Upside: +112% from current

Setup:

• Entry Zone: $11.00-$11.50

• Short-term Target: $15 (+32%)

• Medium-term Target: $18 (+59%)

• Analyst PT: $24 (+112%)

• Stop: $10.25

• Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 4/5

Why It's Hot: Company pivoting from Bitcoin mining to AI/HPC infrastructure with Google partnership. $9.5B, 25-year HPC deal with Fluidstack provides predictable multi-year revenue streams. This is a structural transformation play, not just crypto beta.

Technical: Bounced 43% in two weeks while BTC declined - showing exceptional relative strength
Volume: Monitor for expansion above 30M shares (confirms institutional accumulation)

🔥 TRADE #3: NIKE ($NKE) - Insider Buying Signal

Price: $61.19 (+1.20 pre-market)
Catalyst: CEO Elliot Hill purchased 16,388 shares at $61.10 per share for $1M
Setup Type: Turnaround + Insider Confidence

Setup:

• Entry Zone: $60.50-$62.00

• Targets: $65 (+6%), $70 (+14%), $75 (+23%)

• Stop: $58

• Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐ 3/5

Why It's Relevant: Insider buys at this magnitude signal management's conviction the bottom is in. NKE has been beaten down significantly in 2025. Hill spent $1M of personal capital - not a token gesture.

Risks: Brand perception issues, competitive pressure from On, Hoka
Timeframe: 3-6 month swing trade, not day trade

🔥 TRADE #4: Alphabet ($GOOGL) - Price Target Surge

Catalyst: Citizens raised PT to $385 from $340, implying 22.7% upside from Dec 30 close
2025 Performance: +65.8% YTD - Best performer in Magnificent 7

Current Price: ~$314 (closing basis Dec 30)
Entry Zone: $310-$318
Target: $385 (+23%)
Stop: $300
Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 4/5

Narrative: Momentum likely to continue into 2026 on AI search strength, cloud growth, and YouTube dominance

🌐 BITCOIN & CRYPTO MARKET BREAKDOWN

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Price: $88,206 (+1.02% overnight)

• Range: $87,121 - $89,201 (24hr)

• Monthly Performance: Bitcoin on track to end December down about 22%, worst month since December 2018

Analysis: Failed "Santa Rally" shows crypto market fragility when liquidity thins. Q4 2025 performance turned sharply negative at -22%, signaling risk-off positioning heading into new year.

Key Levels:

• Support: $87K (critical hold for bulls)

• Resistance: $90K (caps upward movement)

• Bullish Trigger: Reclaim $92K with volume

2026 Outlook: Experts predict potential move beyond $126K in 2026 despite current weakness. Institutional accumulation continues despite retail panic.

Ethereum (ETH)

• Price: $2,964.73 (+1.11%)

• Quarterly Performance: Ether on track to end Q4 2025 down 28.07%

• Technical: Struggling below 50-day MA since September - needs breakout confirmation

Alt Sector Breakdown

Crypto Miner Plays: WULF leading sector on HPC pivot. Monitor MARA, RIOT, CIFR for sympathy moves.

📈 SECTOR ANALYSIS & MONEY ROTATION

BULLISH SECTORS 🟢

1. Technology - AI Infrastructure (+0.65% sector)

Leaders: NVDA, GOOGL, TSM
Catalyst: AI capex acceleration, China market reopening for chips
Top Pick: NVDA on H200 China demand

2. Crypto Miners / HPC Transition (+15% 2-week avg)

Leaders: WULF, MARA, RIOT
Catalyst: Bitcoin stabilization + AI pivot narrative
Top Pick: WULF on upgrade to $24 PT

3. Energy (+0.76% sector)

Catalyst: Oil prices climbing, geopolitical tensions
Note: Benefits from Middle East uncertainty (Iran discussions)

BEARISH SECTORS 🔴

1. Precious Metals (-8% silver, -4% gold)

Pressure: CME hiked margins on gold, silver, platinum, palladium for 2nd time in 3 days - profit-taking accelerates
Silver: Plunged 8% despite being best commodity YTD
Avoid: Physical commodity exposure until margin hikes stabilize

2. Real Estate (+0.5% YTD - worst S&P sector)

Laggards: Alexandria Real Estate (-50%), Iron Mountain (-21%)
Issue: High rates, commercial pressure

🎯 TRUMP MOMENTUM & POLITICAL EDGE

Iran Strike Discussions - Geopolitical Trade Setup

Netanyahu brought up topic of possibly hitting Iran again in 2026 with President Trump, according to Axios. This creates several trading opportunities:

Bullish Plays:

• Defense contractors: LMT, RTX, NOC

• Energy sector: XLE, XOP

• Safe-haven gold (despite recent pullback)

Bearish Pressure:

• Airlines, travel sector

• Emerging markets with Iran exposure

Timeline: Discussions suggest Q1 2026 escalation possible - monitor closely in January

Trump's Crypto Stance

President Trump's decision to allow Nvidia H200 sales to China with 25% government revenue share shows pragmatic approach to tech policy. Bullish for:

• AI semiconductor supply chain

• U.S. tech companies with China exposure

• Broader risk-on sentiment

📅 KEY EVENTS & CATALYSTS

Today's Economic Calendar (Dec 31)

• ✅ 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims (BEAT - 199K vs 220K est)

• 10:00 AM ET: 4-Week Bill Auction

• 10:00 AM ET: 8-Week Bill Auction

• 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report

• 11:00 AM ET: 3&6-Month Bill Announcement

• 11:30 AM ET: 4-Month Bill Auction

• 12:00 PM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report

• 1:00 PM ET: EQUITY MARKETS CLOSE EARLY

Earnings After Hours (Light calendar)

No major S&P 500 earnings today - focus shifts to next week's CES 2026 in Las Vegas

Next Week Preview (Jan 2-3, 2026)

• Markets reopen Friday Jan 2 (normal hours)

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan 3)

• Jobs Report Friday (Jan 3) - Critical for Fed path

💰 OVERALL MARKET STRATEGY

For Today (Dec 31)

Morning Session (9:30 AM - 12:00 PM):

• Expect: Thin volume, choppy price action

• Opportunity: Scalp tight ranges in mega-cap tech

• Avoid: Forcing trades in illiquid names

Final Hour (12:00 PM - 1:00 PM):

• Watch For: Year-end positioning flows

• Potential: Window dressing (institutions buying winners)

• Key Level: ES 6,942 reclaim triggers rally into close

Into 2026

Bullish Case: ✅ Labor market strong (claims at lows)
✅ AI spending cycle accelerating
✅ Corporate profits hit records in Q3
✅ Fed still in easing mode (2 cuts expected 2026)

Bearish Risks: ⚠️ Valuations elevated (S&P P/E ~21x)
⚠️ Geopolitical uncertainty (Iran, tariffs)
⚠️ Morgan Stanley warns inflation and valuation risks could cap gains, sees S&P 7,500 (+10%) but most upside priced in

Recommended Allocation:

• 60%: Core tech (NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN)

• 20%: High-conviction catalyst trades (WULF, growth rotation)

• 10%: Defensive hedges (VIX calls, put spreads)

• 10%: Cash (opportunity fund)

🎪 MASTERMIND SOCIAL INSIGHTS

From Trading Community Chatter:

Adam Mancini: "Very important note: We remain in no volatility holiday chop until Monday. Do not overtrade this - it is total random noise"
Action: Respect low-volatility environment, don't force trades

Palmer: Multiple stocks on radar with volume/news:

• VNDA +1.60 on FDA approval

• INTC made it to $38 (continue monitoring)

• WBD expected to reject Paramount offer

Ryan Detrick: If lower tomorrow, S&P will end year with 4-day losing streak - only happened twice in history (1966, 2024). Following years saw +20% and +17% respectively
Implication: Short-term weakness often precedes strong new year rallies

🔮 NEWS CATALYST WRAP-UP

Stock Market News:

• NVDA: China H200 orders explode, $54B pipeline confirmed

• WULF: Upgrade to $24 PT on HPC transformation

• NKE: CEO insider buy at $61 signals confidence

• GOOGL: Citizens raises PT to $385 (+22% upside)

• BRK.A: Warren Buffett's final day as CEO after 60-year run

Crypto News:

• Bitcoin struggles at $88K, worst December since 2018

• ETH below 50-day MA since September, needs breakout

• Crypto miners pivoting to AI/HPC (bullish structural shift)

• Silver plunges 8% on CME margin hikes

Macro News:

• Jobless claims demolish estimates (199K vs 220K)

• Continuing claims drop to 1.866M

• China Q3 current account surplus $198.7B

• Trump-Netanyahu discussing Iran strikes for 2026

⚡ DCG COMMAND CENTER FINAL GUIDANCE

Today's Trade Plan:

DO: ✅ Focus on quality over quantity in thin tape
✅ Use tight stops - volatility can spike unexpectedly
✅ Take profits early - don't overstay welcome
✅ Monitor NVDA for breakout above $190 on China news momentum
✅ Watch WULF for continuation after upgrade

DON'T: ❌ Overtrade in low-volume environment
❌ Chase extended moves without pullback entry
❌ Hold risky overnight positions into long weekend
❌ Ignore the 1:00 PM ET early close

Year-End Positioning:

If Bullish 📈:

• Add tech on any dip toward ES 6,920-6,925

• Scale into NVDA weakness below $185

• WULF $11-$11.25 zone for HPC transition play

If Bearish 📉:

• Wait for break below ES 6,913 to short

• Buy VIX calls for Jan 10 expiry (CES event risk)

• Reduce exposure ahead of Jan 3 jobs report

2026 Setup:

The market has printed three consecutive years of double-digit S&P 500 gains. Historical patterns suggest either:

1. Continued bull market with moderated returns (+7-10%)

2. Correction to reset valuations before next leg higher

Our Lean: Cautiously bullish with tactical hedges. AI capex cycle still early innings, labor market supporting consumer, Fed still friendly. Play the strongest names with discipline.

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📝 TRADE HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS MARKETS

Stocks:

• Winner: WULF +112% to PT, NVDA China surge

• Loser: Precious metals on margin pressure

• Watch: NKE insider buy, GOOGL upgrade

Options:

• Hot Flow: NVDA Feb $200 calls accumulation

• Hedge Interest: VIX Jan calls uptick

• Earnings: Light calendar, focus on Jan 6-10 week

Futures:

• ES: Consolidation 6,922-6,970 range

• NQ: Tech-heavy, following NVDA lead

• Crude: Climbing on Middle East tensions

Crypto:

• BTC: $88K holding, watching $87K support

• ETH: Below 50-MA, needs $3,100 reclaim

• Miners: WULF leading sector transformation

🔔 MARKET SENTIMENT SUMMARY

S&P 500 Futures: NEUTRAL → Consolidation mode, thin volume
Bitcoin/Crypto: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH → Stabilizing after Dec selloff
Tech/AI: BULLISH → NVDA China catalyst, strong fundamentals
Precious Metals: BEARISH → Margin pressure, profit-taking
Overall Risk Appetite: NEUTRAL-TO-BULLISH → Strong labor data supportive, awaiting 2026 catalysts

Volatility: VIX 14.33 (+0.92%) - Complacent but not extreme

⏰ REMEMBER: MARKETS CLOSE 1:00 PM ET TODAY

Plan accordingly. Don't get caught in illiquid late-session moves.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management and position sizing.

🙏 From the DCG Command Center Team

Thank you for an incredible 2025. We've navigated tariff scares, AI breakouts, crypto volatility, and macro uncertainty together. Here's to a profitable and disciplined 2026.

Happy New Year! 🎊

Let's make 2026 our best trading year yet.

DCG COMMAND CENTER
Where Momentum Meets Precision

Newsletter Date: December 31, 2025
Market Hours: 9:30 AM - 1:00 PM ET (Half Day)

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