War Risk Recedes, Markets Ignite:Tuesday's High-Probability Battle Plan

Leadership Can’t Be Automated

AI can help you move faster, but real leadership still requires human judgment.

The free resource 5 Traits AI Can’t Replace explains the traits leaders must protect in an AI-driven world and why BELAY Executive Assistants are built to support them.

Download BELAY’s Guide!

DCG Command Center  |  Market Intelligence Daily

War Risk Recedes, Markets Ignite:
Tuesday's High-Probability Battle Plan

Trump Waives Iran Oil Sanctions • VIX Crashes 35 → 24 • Bitcoin Holds $70K • Europe Surges 2%+

LIVE Tuesday, March 10, 2026  •  Pre-Market Edition  •  U.S. Open Focus

⚠ BREAKING OVERNIGHT: Trump waives key Iran oil-related sanctions — says U.S. is "ahead of initial Iran war timeline by a lot" and conflict is "getting close to finishing." Oil prices pulling back sharply. Risk-on assets surging globally. VIX has collapsed from 35 to under 24. This changes the playbook for Tuesday open.

► 5 KEY THINGS TO KNOW GOING INTO TUESDAY, MARCH 10

1. OIL SANCTIONS WAIVED: Trump signaled Iran conflict is nearing conclusion + waived certain oil-related sanctions. WTI/Brent pulled back hard overnight. Energy sector faces headwinds; travel, airlines, consumer discretionary get a tailwind.

2. VIX COLLAPSE: VIX dropped from 35 at Friday/Monday peak to under 24 this morning. Fear has materially receded. Market is repricing war risk premium out of equities.

3. BITCOIN HOLDS $70K: BTC trading ~$70,741 (+4.5% 24h) despite macro chaos. Crypto total market cap up 3.62%. BlackRock moved $153M into crypto ETFs. IBIT +3% pre-market.

4. TSMC REVENUE +30% YoY: TSMC Jan-Feb revenue surged 30% on strong AI chip demand. Semiconductor sector getting a major catalyst boost. SMH +1% pre-market.

5. CPI WEDNESDAY IS KEY: Goldman Sachs forecasts below-consensus CPI: Core CPI +0.17% MoM vs. 0.2% consensus. A soft print Wednesday = dovish re-pricing. Position accordingly before Wednesday.

► FUTURES & PRE-MARKET SNAPSHOT — March 10, 2026 ~5:38 AM CT

ES (S&P 500)

6,806.50

+5.50 / +0.08%

H5 LB Target: 6,960 | L4 Break: 6,584

SPY (Pre-Mkt)

$678.62

+0.05% pre-mkt

Mar 09 Close: $678.27

QQQ (Pre-Mkt)

$608.80

+0.17% pre-mkt

Mar 09 Close: $607.76

IWM (Pre-Mkt)

$253.20

-0.17% pre-mkt

Mar 09 Close: $253.62

Bitcoin (BTC)

$70,741

+4.50% 24h

Holds above $70K — BULLISH

VIX

~23.8

From 35 ↓ 24

Fear receding rapidly

WTI Crude

Pulling Back

Off $100 highs

Trump sanctions waiver = bearish oil

NVDA (Pre-Mkt)

$182.69

+0.03% pre-mkt

Mar 09 Close: $182.65

► $ES S&P 500 FUTURES — KEY LEVELS (DCG Chart Analysis)

H5 LB TARGET (MAJOR RESISTANCE)6,960.00

H4 LONG BREAKOUT (Resistance)6,860.00

▷ CURRENT / PRE-MKT6,806.50

H3 SHORT ZONE6,780.00

L3 LONG SUPPORT6,660.00

L4 SHORT BREAKOUT (Key Support)6,620.00

WEEKLY LOW (Bear scenario target)6,584.00

BULL SCENARIO: Hold above 6,806 → push toward 6,860 H4 breakout, then 6,960 H5 target. BEAR SCENARIO: Fail at 6,820 → retest 6,780 H3 SHORT zone. Break of 6,760 opens 6,660-6,620 range.

► WHITE HOUSE IMPACT — TRUMP STATEMENTS MARCH 10, 2026

TRUMP IRAN/OIL STATEMENTS — MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS

Between 4:22 AM and 4:54 AM CT, President Trump made a series of critical market-moving statements via press/social channels:

MAJOR BULL Oil Sanctions Waived: "WE'RE WAIVING CERTAIN OIL-RELATED SANCTIONS TO CUT PRICE." Direct downward pressure on crude oil; removes inflation risk premium from energy. BULLISH for: Airlines (DAL, AAL, UAL), Consumer Discretionary, Transports. BEARISH for: XOM, CVX, OXY, energy sector broadly.

MAJOR War Timeline Comment: "AHEAD OF INITIAL IRAN WAR TIMELINE BY A LOT" + "GETTING CLOSE TO FINISHING IT." This is the single biggest overnight catalyst. War risk premium in equities is being priced OUT. Risk-on rotation accelerating.

MODERATE BULL Nuclear Stance: "THINK IRAN SHOULD PUT IN HEAD THAT WILL BE PEACEFUL" — signals diplomatic off-ramp available. De-escalation play is live.

MODERATE Strait of Hormuz: "YOU HAVE TO KEEP THE STRAITS FLOWING" + "WILL TAKE SOME SANCTIONS OFF UNTIL THIS STRAIGHTENS OUT." Gulf energy official confirmed stopping the war is the only solution. Near-term: oil supply fears ease = energy bearish, everything else bullish.

► SECTOR LEADERSHIP & MONEY ROTATION

ADVANCING SECTORS

● Technology +1.80%
● Semiconductors (SMH +1%)
● Health Care +1.02%
● Industrials +0.59%
● Materials +0.26%
● Travel / Airlines (FTSE)
● Consumer Discretionary +0.13%
● Nuclear / SMR (EU catalyst)

DECLINING / CAUTION

● Energy -0.44% (oil selling off)
● Financials -0.47%
● Natural Gas (EU below 50 EUR)
● Live Cattle (fresh YTD low)
● Hedge Funds (multi-strat pain)
● Polyolefins (force majeure declared)
● Airlines mid-east routes (Iraq airspace)
● Traditional energy exporters

► HOT TRADES — HIGH CONVICTION FOR TUESDAY

CRWD

CrowdStrike Holdings

A-RATED • HIGH CONVICTION

Catalyst

Morgan Stanley Upgrade OW

Direction

LONG

Sector

Cybersecurity

MAJOR Morgan Stanley upgraded CRWD to Overweight from Equal Weight (pre-mkt 4:30 AM). War backdrop + VIX collapse = cybersecurity demand surging. Iran conflict creates government cyber defense spend. Defense-adjacent catalyst. This is the #1 stock catalyst for Tuesday.

OPTIONS PLAY: Consider March/April ATM calls or call spreads on open. Verify current price at market open before entry. Target: +8-12% swing from upgrade momentum.

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor

A-RATED • HIGH CONVICTION

Verified Price

$348.70

Pre-Mkt Move

+1.0%

Revenue Beat

+30% YoY

MAJOR TSMC January-February 2026 revenue jumped 30% year-over-year to $10B, driven by surging AI chip demand. This is a direct confirmation AI infrastructure spend is accelerating regardless of geopolitical noise. Sympathy plays: NVDA, AVGO, AMD, SMH ETF.

ENTRY ZONE: $345-$352. TARGET: $365-$375 (+5-7%). STOP: Below $338. OPTIONS: April $360 calls on any morning dip to $345-347.

NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

B-RATED • SWING

Verified Close

$182.65

Pre-Mkt

$182.69

Market Cap

4.44T

MODERATE TSMC +30% revenue is a direct NVDA sympathy catalyst. BofA notes Mag7/Hyperscalers are overweight vs. S&P. AI infrastructure spend intact. VIX collapse removes the headwind. 60% of S&P stocks beating the index — breadth supportive. NVDA is in the Technology leading sector (+1.80%).

ENTRY ZONE: $180-$184. TARGET: $192-$198 (+5-8%). STOP: Below $177. OPTIONS: Weekly/April $185-$190 call spreads.

BTC / IBIT

Bitcoin + iShares Bitcoin ETF

A-RATED • MOMENTUM

BTC Price

$70,741

24H Change

+4.50%

IBIT Pre-Mkt

+3.0%

MAJOR Bitcoin held above $70K through peak war panic. BlackRock moved $153M into crypto ETFs (CoinMarketCap headline). Crypto market cap +3.62% to $2.41T. Fear & Greed at 27 (FEAR) = contrarian opportunity. VIX collapse + war risk fading = risk-on inflows into crypto. Mike Zaccardi confirmed "Bitcoin survived another shaky macro stretch."

BTC TRADE: $70K-$71.5K entry. TARGET: $76K-$78K (+8-10%). STOP: Below $67K.
IBIT STOCK: Buy dips toward $50-51. TARGET: $56-58. OPTIONS: April ATM calls.

INKT

iNKT Therapeutics

B-RATED • BIOTECH

Reported Price

$15.04

Move

+43.92% PM

Catalyst

Oncology Collab

MAJOR INKT announced strategic collaboration with C-Further international pediatric oncology consortium (Cancer Research Horizons, LifeArc, Great Ormond Street Hospital Charity) to develop PRAME-targeted TCR-engineered iNKT cell therapy for pediatric cancers. Pre-market up 43.92%. HIGH RISK / HIGH REWARD biotech momentum play. Sympathy: FATE, CELC, cell therapy names.

CAUTION: 43% PM mover. Wait for confirmation candle at open. If holds $14-15 after gap stabilization, momentum continuation possible. Tight stop required. Position size accordingly.

PL

Planet Labs PBC

C-RATED • WATCH

MODERATE Planet Labs extended Middle East satellite imagery delay on Iran risks (Bloomberg, 4:38 AM). Unique strategic position for military intelligence. JaguarAnalytics highlighted as a key defense-adjacent play. As war winds down, PL becomes critical intelligence infrastructure. Small cap / speculative but thematic.

WATCH: Confirm price at open. Defense/intelligence theme play for swing traders. Potential sympathy with any resolution news on Iran.

► TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES & POLITICAL EDGE

TRUMP TRADE PLAYBOOK — MARCH 10, 2026

LONG (Beneficiaries of Trump Iran/Oil Policy):
• Airlines & Travel: Lower oil = direct margin expansion. DAL, UAL, AAL, JETS ETF
• Consumer Discretionary: Lower gas prices = more consumer spending
• Nuclear/SMR: EU SMR announcement aligns with Trump energy independence narrative; NuScale Power (SMR), Oklo (OKLO)
• Cybersecurity: CRWD, PANW, ZS — Iran conflict = elevated cyber threat mandates defense spending
• Defense Contractors: RTX, LMT — conflict is winding down but legacy spend locked in

SHORT / AVOID (Victims of Trump Iran Policy):
• Energy majors: XOM, CVX, OXY — sanctions waiver + war winding down = oil supply returns
• Oil Services: HAL, SLB — lower oil prices pressure upstream activity
• European Gas plays: Nat gas below 50 EUR/MWh; headwind for LNG exporters
• Polyolefin/Petrochemical: Force majeure declared; supply chain disruption ongoing

► ECONOMIC CALENDAR — WEEK OF MARCH 9-14, 2026

GS CPI PREVIEW: Goldman Sachs forecasts Core CPI +0.17% MoM (below 0.2% consensus). Key trends: Autos deflating (used cars -0.5%), Airfares flat after Jan spike, Shelter moderating. A soft CPI print Wednesday = dovish repricing, rate cut expectations rise, equity rally extension.

► BITCOIN & CRYPTO SENTIMENT BREAKDOWN

CoinPrice24H%7D%

Bitcoin

BTC • #1

$70,741

+4.50%

+6.36%

Ethereum

ETH • #2

$2,057

+2.89%

+5.44%

Solana

SOL • #7

$87.07

+3.78%

+3.69%

XRP

XRP • #5

$1.40

+4.16%

+4.81%

HYPE (Hyperliquid)

HYPE • #15

$34.61

+11.17%

+6.70%

Dogecoin

DOGE • #9

$0.0949

+4.84%

-19.24%

BNB

BNB • #4

$646.48

+2.95%

+3.76%

CRYPTO SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

Market Cap: $2.41T (+3.62%) • Fear & Greed: 27 (FEAR) — Contrarian buy signal zone
BTC Dominance: 58.9% • Altcoin Season Index: 36/100

Key Themes: BlackRock moving $153M into crypto ETFs confirms institutional accumulation. Saylor reportedly buying $1.3B (per CoinMarketCap ticker). War & $6B down headline suggests dip-buying underway. BTC held $70K through peak panic — this is constructive structure. ETH lagging BTC = DeFi/altcoin rotation hasn't started yet.

Top Performing Sectors (SoSoValue): PerpDEX +8.78%, Solana Ecosystem +3.50%, Tokenized Stocks +5.03%, Grayscale 2025 Top20 +4.04%, Sui Ecosystem +6.86%

Watch: HYPE/Hyperliquid +11.17% — DeFi derivatives momentum. If BTC holds $70K through Tuesday open, expect altcoin catch-up rally with SOL, ETH, XRP leading.

► EARNINGS & CATALYST WEEK HIGHLIGHTS

SYMPATHY PLAYS FROM RECENT EARNINGS

TSM +30% Revenue Beat
Sympathy longs: NVDA, AVGO, AMD, AMAT, LRCX, SMH ETF

INKT Pediatric Oncology Deal
Sympathy biotech: Cell therapy names, FATE, CELC, AGEN

Spirax Group +4% (LON)
Industrial steam/flow control. US sympathy: ROP, ITW, EMR

Persimmon +10% (UK Homebuilder)
US sympathy: DHI, LEN, TOL, ITB ETF on housing recovery

UPCOMING WEEK WATCH

CPI Report — Wednesday, Mar 11
MOST IMPORTANT EVENT THIS WEEK. GS below-consensus forecast = bullish.

API Crude Oil Data — Tuesday PM
Watch for build = confirms oil weakness play

3-Year Note Auction — Tuesday 1 PM
Strong demand = bond bullish, equity neutral-positive

NFIB Business Optimism 98.8
Slight miss vs 99.1 est. Minor headwind, not a market mover.

► MARKET RECAP & OVERNIGHT SUMMARY

WHAT HAPPENED & WHERE WE STAND

Last Week (March 6): Iran conflict erupted, sending WTI crude toward $100/bbl, VIX spiked to 35, and major hedge funds suffered significant losses: Millennium -$1.5B (-1.7%), Balyasny -3.5%, Point72 -1.1%. Markets were pricing a prolonged Middle East conflict with Strait of Hormuz disruption risk.

Monday March 9: Markets digested war impact. SPY closed $678.27. Extreme volatility as traders navigated geopolitical uncertainty. War premium elevated across energy and volatility instruments.

Overnight Mar 9-10: DRAMATIC PIVOT. Trump announced Iran conflict is "ahead of schedule" and "close to finishing." Sanctions waived on oil. VIX collapsed from 35 to under 24. European markets opened with massive risk-on: FTSE100 +1.5%, DAX +2.1%, CAC40 +1.7%, Euro STOXX 600 best day since May. Oil pulled back from $100 highs. Bitcoin surged back above $70K. TSMC reported +30% revenue. CRWD upgraded by Morgan Stanley. The entire macro backdrop shifted overnight.

KEY SHIFT: We are moving from WAR PREMIUM PRICING to POST-WAR RECOVERY PRICING. This is a significant regime change for Tuesday. Risk-on rotation is live. Sectors that suffered most from war fear (Tech, Consumer, Travel) are set to recover. Energy faces headwinds as supply risk premium deflates.

► MASTERMIND & SOCIAL INSIGHTS

Mike Zaccardi, CFA CMT • 4:42-5:24 AM

Key overnight data points: SPY +0.4%, IWM +0.4%, SMH +1%, VEU +1%, IBIT +3%, USO flat. Bitcoin survived macro shakeout above $71K. VIX collapsed 35 → under 24. GS forecasting below-consensus CPI Wednesday — Core +0.17% vs 0.2% est. BofA: "Brent spike near $120 was classic PEAK PANIC." 60% of SPX stocks beating the index — most since 2002 (breadth is extremely healthy).

BofA Paul Ciana • Pre-Market Note

$120 Brent = "peak panic." Expects continued headline-driven volatility but LESS INTENSE than Mar 6-9. Mag7/Hyperscalers overweight vs S&P. AI infrastructure spend overweight position continues.

Goldman Sachs Scenarios • Pre-Market

GS Oil Scenarios: Risk case $76/72 (30 days, 15mb/d exports cut). Extended risk $93/89 (60 days). With Trump saying "ahead of timeline," the risk scenario is fading toward base case. BULLISH for risk assets. Supply shocks: "Unlike 2022, labor market, inflation, fiscal support are all significantly cooler." Less stagflation risk this cycle.

Ryan Detrick CMT • Historical Context

S&P 500 bull market average: 8 years, +288% gains. This bull is only in its 4th year. Ryan cites "good reason to think the run isn't done." Dips are buying opportunities in multi-year bull context.

Anthropic CFO • Court Filing 5:07 AM

Anthropic CFO warned U.S. government actions could cut 2026 revenue by "multiple billions." This is a headwind for private AI company valuations but does not directly impact publicly traded AI names. Watch for sentiment spillover into MSFT (OpenAI), GOOG (Gemini), META AI.

► OVERALL MARKET STRATEGY — MARCH 10 OPEN

BULLISH MARKET SENTIMENT

● War risk premium exiting equities
● VIX collapse = vol sellers active
● Europe surging 2%+ = global risk-on
● TSMC AI demand confirmed +30%
● Bitcoin holding $70K+ level
● GS CPI below-consensus forecast
● Bull market only year 4 of avg 8yr
● 60% SPX stocks beating index (breadth)
● CRWD MS upgrade — cyber demand
● BlackRock $153M crypto inflows

BEARISH / RISK FACTORS

● Iraq airspace closed 72 hours
● Israel continues strikes on Tehran
● Hezbollah shells near Damascus
● Turkish airspace violation by Iran
● Hedge fund losses create forced selling
● NFIB slight miss (98.8 vs 99.1)
● Polyolefin force majeure declared
● South Korea KOSPI "meme stock" vol
● VW warning: China auto pressure on EU
● Anthropic revenue risk (AI sector sentiment)

DCG RECOMMENDATION: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH WITH DISCIPLINE

The overnight macro shift is SIGNIFICANT and BULLISH. The probability of a gap-up open Tuesday is elevated. However: (1) War is NOT over — Israeli strikes ongoing; (2) Volatility can return instantly on escalation news; (3) CPI Wednesday is the TRUE catalyst for sustained rally. Strategy: Trade the gap carefully. Prefer quality tech and semiconductor longs. Avoid chasing energy. Position 50-70% bullish with tight stops. Scale into CPI pre-positioning. Bitcoin is a strong swing play above $70K.

LEVEL UP YOUR TRADING GAME

Join a real community of traders who analyze markets every day. AI-powered tools, live alerts, and professional guidance to help you trade smarter.

JOIN AITRADINGSKOOL.COM TODAY

► TRADE HIGHLIGHTS BY MARKET

STOCKS

LONG: CRWD (upgrade), TSM (rev +30%), NVDA (AI demand), SMH (semis), IBIT (BTC ETF), INKT (oncology)
AVOID/SHORT: XOM, CVX, OXY (oil sanctions headwind), HAL, SLB

OPTIONS

CALLS: CRWD Apr ATM calls post-upgrade. TSM Apr $360C. NVDA Apr $190C.
SPY/QQQ: CPI pre-position: SPY Mar11/12 expiry. Consider straddles on CPI day.
VIX: Sell vol if VIX spikes back to 28+

FUTURES

ES LONG: Above 6,806 → target 6,860 (H4 breakout), then 6,960 (H5 target)
ES SHORT: Below 6,780 H3 zone → target 6,660
OIL SHORT: WTI — sanctions waiver = supply return

CRYPTO

BTC: $70K-$71.5K entry → $76-78K target
ETH: $2,050-$2,100 range; $2,350 target
SOL: $86-$88 entry; $95-$100 target
HYPE: DeFi momentum +11% — pullback entry

► SEASONALITY & MARKET PATTERNS

MARCH 2026 CONTEXT

Bull Market Context: Ryan Detrick notes the average U.S. bull market runs 8 years (+288%). This bull is only in year 4. Historically, war-related corrections in bull markets have been buying opportunities.

March Seasonality: Mid-March CPI + FOMC (later in month) historically creates volatility pockets. The pattern of VIX spike → VIX collapse is a classic "buy the dip" setup when macro fundamentals remain intact.

60% SPX Breadth: BofA data showing 60% of S&P stocks beating the index — highest since 2002 — signals extremely healthy market internals. This is NOT a broken bull market.

► HOTTEST SECTOR SENTIMENT NOW

SEMICONDUCTORS / AI TECHNOLOGY is the hottest sector heading into Tuesday. TSMC +30% revenue, NVDA pre-market stable, SMH +1%, BofA overweight Mag7/Hyperscalers, VIX collapse removing tech headwind. This is the #1 sector for Tuesday with the most confirmed catalysts. TSM, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, SMH are the primary vehicles.

► MASTERMIND FINAL GUIDANCE — TUESDAY FOCUS

1. LEAD WITH QUALITY: Semiconductors (TSM, NVDA, SMH) and Cybersecurity (CRWD) are confirmed catalyst plays with analyst backing and revenue data. These are your highest-conviction long ideas.

2. BITCOIN IS A SWING PLAY: BTC held $70K through maximum fear. BlackRock buying. Fear & Greed at 27. This is historically a strong contrarian setup. IBIT is the cleanest expression for stock traders.

3. FADE ENERGY ON BOUNCES: Trump sanctions waiver + war de-escalation = oil supply returning. Any bounce in XOM, CVX, OXY is a fade opportunity, not a chase.

4. CPI IS WEDNESDAY'S CATALYST: GS expects below-consensus print. Position BEFORE Wednesday. Don't be caught flat into a potentially massive tech/growth rally if CPI comes in soft.

5. WATCH GEOPOLITICAL NEWS FLOW: Israeli strikes are ongoing in Tehran. Any escalation headline can reverse overnight gains instantly. Keep stops tight and don't over-leverage. The VIX fell fast — it can spike fast too.

6. ES KEY LEVEL: 6,806 is current. Bulls need to hold this and push through 6,860 (H4 breakout) for Tuesday momentum. Failure below 6,780 signals caution zone. Bears need below 6,760 for conviction.

PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT: 65% BULLISH OPEN • 35% CAUTIOUS
Based on: War de-escalation signals, VIX collapse, European market surge, TSMC beat, Bitcoin strength
Risk: Active Israeli strikes, hedge fund deleveraging, technical resistance at 6,820-6,860

Stop guessing. Start knowing.

We've mapped out the ENTIRE year — every month, every sentiment shift, every high-probability window

— so you can trade with confidence while others trade with hope.

Inside the 2026 Oracle Trading Forecast, you'll see:

✅ Month-by-month market sentiment

✅ When to be aggressive vs. when to protect capital

This is how professionals plan their year. Now it's yours.

�� ACCESS YOUR 2026 FORECAST HERE

The traders who win in 2026 will be the ones who saw the map before the journey started.

You can login and get access here.

https://dcgoracleoutlook.com/get-started

PRICE VERIFICATION NOTE: All prices cited are sourced from TradingView screenshots (ES: 6,806.50), TradingTerminal.com pre-market data (SPY $678.62, QQQ $608.80, NVDA $182.69, TSM $348.70), SoSoValue crypto data (BTC $70,729-$70,741, ETH $2,057, SOL $86.85-$87.07), and CoinMarketCap (BTC $70,741). Data timestamped approximately 5:38 AM CT, March 10, 2026. All trade ideas are for informational and educational purposes only. This is NOT financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always trade with a risk management plan. Verify all prices at your broker before entering trades.

DCG COMMAND CENTER

Market Intelligence • Daily Trading Newsletter • Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Trade smarter. Stay disciplined. Protect your capital. • aitradingskool.com

This newsletter is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.

Subscribe to our live trading room and take the trades with us.