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🔥 VALUATION RECKONING ROCKS MARKETS AS AI DARLINGS FACE REALITY CHECK 🔥

Palantir Plunges Despite Stellar Earnings While Bitcoin Retreats - November 4, 2025 Trading Preview

⚡ KEY MARKET ALERTS FOR TUESDAY NOVEMBER 4, 2025

BREAKING: S&P 500 futures down -1%, Nasdaq futures tumbling -1.3% as valuation concerns slam tech sector. Palantir Technologies fell more than 6% in premarket trading despite beating Wall Street's estimates and providing strong guidance Bloomberg. VIX spiking to 20 as market questions stretched AI valuations.

CRITICAL PRICE LEVELS:

• PLTR: Closed $207.18, After-hours $198.36 (-4.26%)

• AMD: Closed $259.65 (Reports earnings today)

• BTC: Trading $106,617 (-1.19%)

• UBER: $99.72 (Reports earnings today)

• S&P 500 Futures: 6,815.25 (-0.98%)

🎯 WHAT TRADERS NEED TO KNOW RIGHT NOW

The global stock rally hit a speed bump as earnings from artificial-intelligence bellwether Palantir Technologies Inc. failed to impress and Wall Street executives warned of rich valuations Bloomberg. Despite posting exceptional growth numbers, PLTR's reaction highlights a critical market shift: fundamentals may no longer justify current valuations.

Michael Burry Makes Massive Bearish Bet: 80% of Michael Burry's portfolio consists of puts against Palantir (PLTR)andNvidia(PLTR) and Nvidia ( PLTR)andNvidia(NVDA), signaling major hedging against tech's extended run.

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📊 OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT

Futures Market (Pre-Market as of 6:30 AM EST)

• 📉 S&P 500: -67.50 (-0.98%) → 6,815.25

• 📉 Nasdaq-100: -315.00 (-1.50%) → 20,685.00

• 📉 Dow Jones: -292 (-0.60%) → 47,000

• ⚠️ VIX (Fear Index): +2.5 → 20.00

Sector Performance Heat Map

DECLINING:

• 🔴 Technology: -1.80%

• 🔴 Communication Services: -1.06%

• 🔴 Materials: -0.62%

• 🔴 Consumer Staples: -0.79%

HOLDING STEADY:

• 🟢 Consumer Discretionary: +0.94%

• 🟢 Health Care: +0.14%

• 🟢 Utilities: +0.06%

💥 BREAKING EARNINGS MOVES - MASSIVE VOLATILITY AHEAD

🚨 PALANTIR ($PLTR) - THE SHOCKING REALITY CHECK

What Happened: Despite posting potentially the best quarter in company history, PLTR dropped 6-7% after hours.

The Numbers (Released Monday After Close):

• Revenue: $1.18B vs. $1.09B est. (+62.8% YoY) ✅

• EPS: $0.21 vs. $0.17 est. (+23.5% beat) ✅

• Q4 Revenue Guidance: $1.33B vs. $1.19B est. ✅

• Operating Margin: 51% (exceptional profitability) ✅

• Net Income Margin: 40% ✅

Why It Dropped: Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid noted their results were good but markets were disappointed at the lack of company visibility for the whole of 2026 CNBC.

Current Price: $207.18 (Monday close) → $198.36 after-hours Analyst Actions Today:

• Jefferies raised price target to $70 from $60

• Mizuho raised price target to $205 from $165

• BofA raised target to $255 from $215

Trade Rating: ⚠️ HIGH RISK - Valuation concerns overshadowing fundamentals Entry Zone: $195-$200 (wait for stabilization) Target: $220 (+10.9% from after-hours price) Stop Loss: $185

⚡ AMD ($AMD) - THE $260 MOMENT OF TRUTH

Reports: TODAY after market close (4:00 PM EST)

Current Setup:

• Price: $259.65 (Monday close)

• Expected Move: ±8.7% (options-implied)

• Expected EPS: $1.17 vs. $0.48 last year

• Expected Revenue: $8.8B (+28% YoY)

The Catalyst: AMD announced a huge partnership with OpenAI to provide 6 gigawatts of computing power, with OpenAI investing in AMD as capacity is delivered The Motley Fool.

Key Question: Can AMD justify its 41x 2026 earnings multiple after OpenAI partnership?

Trading Strategy:

• Bullish above: $260 → Targets $275-$285

• Bearish below: $255 → Support at $240-$245

• P/E Ratio: 73.3 (vs. NVDA at 52.3)

Trade Rating: 🔥 8/10 - High volatility expected Risk: OpenAI deal doesn't translate to immediate revenue

🚗 UBER ($UBER) - MOBILITY MOMENTUM ACCELERATING

Released: Monday after close

The Numbers:

• EPS: $3.11 vs. $0.67 est. (+363% beat!) 🎯

• Revenue: $13.47B vs. $13.26B est. ✅

• Gross Bookings: $49.74B vs. $48.96B est. ✅

• Trips: 3.51B vs. 3.39B est. ✅

Q4 Guidance:

• Gross Bookings: $52.25B-$53.75B vs. $52.3B est.

• Adj EBITDA: $2.41B-$2.51B vs. $2.48B est.

CEO Bombshell: "We expect to be live with autonomous vehicle deployments on the Uber network in at least 10 cities by the end of 2026"

Current Price: $99.72 (Monday close, down -2% after hours) Trade Rating: 🔥 9/10 - Exceptional quarter, pullback is gift Entry Zone: $97-$99 Target: $107 (+7.4%) Stop: $94

💊 PFIZER ($PFE) - PHARMA SURPRISE INCOMING?

Reports: TODAY before market open (Pre-market released)

Q3 Results (Just Released):

• EPS: $0.87 vs. $0.63 est. (+38% beat!) 🎯

• Revenue: $16.65B vs. $16.59B est. ✅

• FY EPS Guidance Raised: $3.00-$3.15 from $2.90-$3.10 ✅

Current Price: $24.66 (Monday close) After-hours: $24.74 (+0.32%)

Trade Rating: 7/10 - Solid beat, dividend safe Entry Zone: $24.50-$25.00 Target: $27.50 (+11.5%) Dividend Yield: 6.98%

🛍️ SHOPIFY ($SHOP) - E-COMMERCE KING UNDER PRESSURE

Reports: TODAY before market open

Expectations:

• EPS: $0.24 (down -11% YoY) ⚠️

• Revenue: $2.84B vs. $2.75B est.

• Q4 Revenue Growth: Mid-to-high twenties % YoY

Released Results:

• Op Income: $343M vs. $311M est. ✅

• Revenue: $2.84B vs. $2.75B est. ✅

• GMV: $92.0B vs. $88.9B est. ✅

Current Price: $172.94 (Monday close) YTD Performance: +65%

Trade Rating: 6/10 - Valuation stretched at ATHs Entry Zone: Wait for $165-$168 pullback Target: $185 (+7%) Risk: P/S ratio of 22 leaves little room for error

🏛️ WHITE HOUSE & POLICY IMPACT

Trump Administration Market Influence

NYC Congestion Pricing Threat: Trump stated if Mamdani wins, it's "highly unlikely" he will contribute federal funds to New York City, and plans to ask Transportation Secretary to look at terminating NYC congestion pricing.

Treasury Secretary Bessent Comments:

• "Think both inflation and interest rates will come down"

• "Fed should cut rates if inflation falls"

• "Expect solid, high non-inflationary growth next year"

Policy Impact: Dovish Fed expectations supporting market despite tech selloff

🌐 CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET BREAKDOWN

Bitcoin & Crypto Facing Pressure

BTC Price Action:

• Current: $103,963 (-1.19% in 24hrs)

• 24hr Range: $103,800 - $108,400

• Weekly: -3.76%

• Monthly: -9.13%

Market Dynamics:

• Bitcoin fell by more than 3% to hover near $106,000 per token after trading as low as just below $106,000 during the session Yahoo Finance

• A renewed advance in megacaps drove tech stocks higher despite Bitcoin's weakness Yahoo Finance

Altcoin Carnage:

• ETH: $3,505 (-3.28%, -30% from August highs)

• SOL: $161.11 (-7.26%)

• BNB: $948.57 (-5.28%)

Crypto Market Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index at 42 (Neutral/Fear)

BTC Trade Setup:

• Support: $103,000-$106,000

• Resistance: $110,000-$112,000

• Trend: Consolidating after rejection at $126K ATH

Trade Rating: 5/10 - Wait for clear direction Strategy: Scale in on dips to $104K support with tight stops

📈 KEY CATALYST TRADES FOR TUESDAY

🔥 TOP CONVICTION SETUPS

1. CONSTELLATION ENERGY ($CEG) - AI Power Play Constellation Energy announced long-range proposal to invest in up to 5.8GW of power generation and battery storage projects in Maryland to meet rising demand for electricity.

Setup: Energy infrastructure benefiting from AI data center demand Entry: Current levels Target: +15% by year-end Trade Rating: 8/10

2. NVIDIA ($NVDA) - The AI Infrastructure King Price: $203.12 (+2%) Catalyst: Jefferies raised Nvidia price target to $240 from $220, citing surging AI compute demand with a $500B order pipeline for 2025-2026

Entry: $200-$205 Target: $240 (+18%) Trade Rating: 9/10

3. CIPHER MINING ($CIFR) - Bitcoin Mining Infrastructure Clear Street raised price target to $34 from $20 (+70% upside)

Trade Rating: 7/10 - High beta crypto play

🎯 S&P 500 FUTURES KEY LEVELS

Current Price: 6,815.25

SUPPORT LEVELS:

• 🔴 6,800 - Immediate support (CRITICAL)

• 🔴 6,760 - 50-day MA

• 🔴 6,700 - Major support zone

RESISTANCE LEVELS:

• 🟢 6,850 - Recent highs

• 🟢 6,900 - Psychological resistance

• 🟢 6,960 - All-time high

Technical Outlook: Short-term bearish below 6,850, but longer-term uptrend intact above 6,700.

💰 MONEY ROTATION & SECTOR SHIFTS

Money Flowing OUT Of:

• 🔴 Mega-Cap Tech (Valuation reset)

• 🔴 High P/E Growth (Multiple compression)

• 🔴 Crypto/Speculative (Risk-off rotation)

Money Flowing INTO:

• 🟢 Defensive Healthcare (PFE beating)

• 🟢 Energy Infrastructure (CEG, power demand)

• 🟢 Quality Dividends (Value rotation beginning)

🔄 Key Rotation Signals:

• VIX jump to 20 = Return of volatility

• Dollar strength (DXY 100) = Safe haven bid

• Treasury yields stable = No panic yet

Strategy: Reduce high-beta tech exposure, add quality defensives

🌟 HOT EARNINGS PLAYS - REST OF WEEK

Wednesday November 5:

• RIVN (Rivian) - EV production ramp

• ALAB (Astera Labs) - AI connectivity

Thursday November 6:

• QCOM (Qualcomm) - Mobile chips

• ANET (Arista Networks) - Data center networking

Friday November 7:

• CEG (Constellation Energy) - Power/AI demand

📰 OTHER KEY MARKET MOVING NEWS

Corporate Actions

STARBUCKS ($SBUX) - China JV Deal: Starbucks announced forming a joint venture with Boyu Capital to operate locations in China, with Boyu paying roughly $4 billion to hold up to 60% interest CNBC.

COEUR MINING ($CDE) / NEW GOLD: Coeur Mining struck a deal to acquire New Gold for $7 billion in an all-stock deal, creating a $20 billion market cap precious metals mining company CNBC.

YUM BRANDS - Pizza Hut Strategic Review: Yum Brands will review strategic options for Pizza Hut, opening the door to a sale.

International Developments

UK/Europe:

• European stocks tumbled across the continent with Germany's DAX dropping 1.5%

• UK 4-year gilt yield at 3.845%

China:

• China Vice Premier He met with Goldman Sachs Chairman

• Rare earth tensions easing per Trump comments

🎲 TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES

Political Edge Opportunities

1. Infrastructure Plays With potential NYC policy shifts, infrastructure names remain in focus for federal spending priorities.

2. Domestic Manufacturing Trump's tariff stance continues favoring U.S.-based production.

3. Energy Independence Traditional energy maintaining political favor despite green initiatives.

Trade Carefully: Political winds shift fast - use tight stops!

🧠 OVERALL TRADING STRATEGY - TUESDAY NOV 4

⚡ SESSION OUTLOOK:

Market Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral (60% probability of continued weakness)

Primary Risk: Valuation concerns spreading beyond PLTR

🎯 TRADING GAMEPLAN:

MORNING (9:30 AM - 11:00 AM):

1. Watch opening gap - If S&P opens below 6,800, expect acceleration lower

2. Monitor SHOP & PFE earnings reactions

3. Avoid chasing anything in first 30 minutes

MIDDAY (11:00 AM - 2:00 PM):

1. Look for stabilization in tech names

2. Watch for reversal patterns near 6,780-6,800 S&P support

3. Scout entry points on strong names pulling back

AFTERNOON (2:00 PM - 4:00 PM):

1. AMD earnings positioning (closes 4 PM)

2. Consider hedges if market fails to bounce

3. Don't fight the tape if weakness persists

⚠️ KEY RISK FACTORS:

• AMD guidance tonight could determine Wednesday's direction

• Continued valuation concerns may trigger broader tech selloff

• Options expiration dynamics adding volatility

📊 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - THIS WEEK

Tuesday, November 4:

• JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM EST)

Wednesday, November 5:

• ADP Employment Report

• ISM Services PMI

Thursday, November 6:

• Jobless Claims

Friday, November 7:

• Non-Farm Payrolls (MAJOR)

• Average Hourly Earnings

• Unemployment Rate

⚠️ Note: Some data may be delayed due to government operations

🎓 MASTERMIND TAKEAWAYS

What Smart Money Is Doing:

1. Taking Profits in Extended Tech - Don't fight the rotation

2. Building Cash Positions - Volatility = opportunity

3. Focusing on Quality - Earnings beats matter more than ever

4. Avoiding FOMO - Wait for setups, don't chase

Critical Lessons from Today:

✅ Great earnings ≠ Higher stock prices (See: PLTR) ✅ Valuation always matters eventually (Multiple compression beginning) ✅ Diversification remains key (Tech-only portfolios getting crushed) ✅ Cash is a position (Patience will be rewarded)

🚀 FINAL WORD: NAVIGATING THE VALUATION RESET

Today marks a potential inflection point in the market. After months of relentless tech gains, we're seeing the first real pushback from investors questioning whether fundamentals support current prices.

The Good News: Earnings remain strong (UBER, PFE crushing estimates) The Bad News: Valuations stretched, and markets won't pay any price

Best Approach:

1. Raise cash from extended positions

2. Protect profits with stops

3. Create watchlists of quality names you want at lower prices

4. Stay disciplined - The best traders wait for their pitch

Remember: Volatility creates opportunity. The traders who stay calm and execute their plans will profit from others' panic.

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🔔 TOMORROW'S PREVIEW:

Wednesday brings ADP employment data and more earnings. AMD's results tonight will set the tone. If AMD disappoints, expect Wednesday to test 6,700 on S&P. If AMD rallies, we could see a relief bounce back toward 6,850.

Stay flexible. Trade smart. Manage risk.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. All trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Price targets and trade ratings are analysis-based opinions, not guarantees.

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