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- π¨ TRUMP FIRES 15% GLOBAL TARIFF MISSILE β NVDA EARNINGS WEEK BEGINS, GOLD EXPLODES TO $5,182 & NVO CRATERS 15%
π¨ TRUMP FIRES 15% GLOBAL TARIFF MISSILE β NVDA EARNINGS WEEK BEGINS, GOLD EXPLODES TO $5,182 & NVO CRATERS 15%
π΄ BREAKING: Trump raises global tariffs to 15% β EU freezes US trade deal β Bitcoin plunges below $65K β Gold $5,182 (+2%) β Silver +5% β NVO -15% β NVDA earnings Wed Feb 25 AH β GOOGL upgraded to Overweight at Wells Fargo
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β‘ KEY THINGS TO KNOW β MONDAY OPEN
Trump announces 15% global tariff effective Tuesday β biggest tariff escalation of 2026. Risk-off tone across all assets.
EU freezes US trade deal approval in response to Trump tariff plan. G7 trade ministers meeting Monday afternoon.
NVO (Novo Nordisk) -14β15% premarket β CagriSema obesity drug fails to match Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide in REDEFINE-4 trial (Morgan Stanley: "worst case scenario").
LLY (Eli Lilly) +4% premarket β biggest beneficiary from NVO trial miss. Obesity drug dominance confirmed.
Gold COMEX +2% at $5,182/oz β Silver COMEX +5% at $86.72/oz. Safe-haven rotation in full force.
Bitcoin -5% at ~$65,000 β Crypto market cap loses $2T+ from peak. Risk sentiment is BEARISH for crypto.
NVDA earnings Wednesday Feb 25 AH β The most critical market event of the week. Consensus revenue ~$65.6B.
GOOGL upgraded to Overweight by Wells Fargo β Price target raised to $387 from $354.
Domino's (DPZ) earnings before the bell Monday β Options priced for 9% move.
ES Futures -20 pts (-0.29%) near 6,903 as of overnight session. Key support at 6,875 / Resistance at 6,940.
Defense Secretary Hegseth set to meet Anthropic CEO β AI + Defense convergence theme emerging.
ποΈ WHITE HOUSE IMPACT β TRUMP TARIFF BOMB
β οΈ MAJOR CATALYST: Trump Announces 15% Global Tariff (Effective Tuesday)
President Trump raised global import duties to 15% β the most significant tariff escalation of 2026. This comes after the Supreme Court ruling last week and directly impacts:
π΄ Tech & Semiconductors β Supply chain disruption risk. NVDA, AMD, AAPL supply chain under pressure.
π΄ Auto Sector β Tariff pass-through risk raises costs. Watch F, GM, TSLA.
π΄ Consumer Goods / Retail β Price inflation risk for WMT, COST, TGT.
π’ Gold & Silver (GLD, SLV, GDX) β Safe-haven bid EXPLODING. Gold at $5,182, Silver at $86.72.
π’ Defense (LMT, RTX, NOC) β Geopolitical risk escalation = defense spending catalyst.
π‘ US Dollar Index (DXY) β Falling 0.2% on tariff news β unusual divergence. Watch for continued weakness supporting gold.
EU response: EU freezing trade deal approval + G7 trade ministers meet Monday afternoon. BoE's Taylor warned "US high tariff regime is here to stay" and expects it to "play out over many years." This is a multi-year macro shift β NOT a one-day headline.
β‘ KEY THINGS TO KNOW β MONDAY OPEN | CRITICAL READ |
οΏ½οΏ½οΏ½οΏ½ | TRUMP 15% GLOBAL TARIFF (MAJOR): Takes effect TUESDAY. Most significant tariff escalation of 2026. EU retaliating by freezing US trade deal. BoE confirmed this morning: 'US high tariff regime is here to stay' and will 'play out over many years.' This is a structural multi-year macro shift. |
οΏ½οΏ½ | NVO NOVO NORDISK -15% (MAJOR): REDEFINE-4 trial: CagriSema fails to beat Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide. Morgan Stanley calls it 'worst case scenario.' Obesity franchise terminal value under severe question. Do NOT buy the gap down on open. |
οΏ½οΏ½ | LLY ELI LILLY +4% PREMARKET (MAJOR): Direct winner from NVO collapse. Tirzepatide confirmed best-in-class obesity drug. Obesity franchise leadership fully transferred to LLY. Sector re-rating will persist. Sympathy plays: VKTX, BMY obesity pipeline. |
οΏ½οΏ½ | GOLD $5,182 (+2%) & SILVER $86.72 (+5%) (MAJOR): COMEX metals exploding on tariff + dollar weakness + geopolitical risk. SLV ETF +7.9% (verified Yahoo Finance). DXY falling while tariffs rise β unusual divergence supercharging metals. This is the clearest trade of 2026. |
οΏ½οΏ½ | NVDA EARNINGS WEDNESDAY FEB 25 AH (CRITICAL): Most anticipated earnings of 2026. Street consensus: ~$65.6B revenue (+65% YoY). Key watch: gross margins ~75%, Apr-Q guide, Blackwell-to-Rubin roadmap. IV collapse risk from ~60% to ~30% post-print. Verified last close: $187.90 (Yahoo Finance, Feb 20). |
οΏ½οΏ½ | GOOGL UPGRADED β WELLS FARGO (MODERATE): New PT $387 vs prior $354. Last verified close $314.90. WF implies +23% upside. AI ad revenue acceleration + government AI contract optionality. Communication Services leading YTD at +1.44%. |
βΏ | BITCOIN -5% TO ~$65K β EXTREME FEAR (MAJOR CRYPTO): Fear & Greed Index: 14/100. $600M+ in bullish crypto positions liquidated in 24h. BTC has wiped out all post-Trump election gains from $126K ATH. Total crypto market cap: $2.28T (-2.47%). Altcoin Season Index: 33/100. |
οΏ½οΏ½ | ES FUTURES -0.72% to 6,873: NQ -0.93% to 24,835 | RTY -1.03% to 2,641 | Dow -0.61% to 49,372. Key ES support: 6,855 / 6,820 / 6,791. Resistance reclaim needed at 6,920+ to flip neutral. |
οΏ½οΏ½ | DPZ DOMINO'S β EARNINGS BEFORE BELL: Options market priced for 9% move. Call/put ratio 1.2:1 (slight bullish lean). Texas Roadhouse already posted +8.2% comp sales. Consumer dining showing resilience. |
οΏ½οΏ½ FUTURES & GLOBAL MARKETS SNAPSHOT | PRE-MARKET ~6 AM CST |
EQUITY INDEX FUTURES
S&P 500 (ES) 6,873 βΌ -0.72% | NASDAQ 100 (NQ) 24,835 βΌ -0.93% | DOW JONES (YM) 49,372 βΌ -0.61% | RUSSELL 2K (RTY) 2,641 βΌ -1.03% |
COMMODITIES & VOLATILITY
COMEX GOLD (GC) $5,178/oz β² +1.92% | COMEX SILVER (SI) $86.72/oz β² +5.00% | CRUDE OIL WTI (/CL) $65.69 βΌ -1.20% | VIX VOLATILITY 19.09 βΌ -5.64% off highs |
SPY PRE-MARKET (TRADETERMINAL.COM β FEB 23, 6:40 AM ET)
SPY β S&P ETF $687.29 βΌ -0.31% | QQQ β NASDAQ ETF $605.94 βΌ -0.47% | IWM β RUSSELL ETF $263.51 βΌ -0.42% | DIA β DOW ETF $494.83 βΌ -0.25% |
Price Sources: Yahoo Finance, TradingTerminal.com, TradingView (ES chart screenshot shows 6,903.25 β extended session 6,873), CoinMarketCap, SoSoValue β Verified Feb 23, 2026 pre-market.
οΏ½οΏ½ SECTOR ANALYSIS β ADVANCE & DECLINE |
BULLISH SECTORS
SECTOR | DRIVER & MOMENTUM |
Communication Services (GOOGL) | +1.44% YTD | GOOGL upgrade, AI ad spend acceleration |
Consumer Discretionary (DPZ) | +1.04% YTD | Earnings today, Texas Roadhouse +8.2% comps |
Real Estate (REIT) | +0.83% YTD | Rate cut expectations from Fed Waller speech |
Financials (JPM, C) | +0.65% YTD | Yield curve, rotation from tech |
Industrials β AI Infra (CAT, GEV) | +0.50% YTD | AI data center power demand, domestic focus |
Precious Metals / Materials | +0.25% base, EXPLOSIVE TODAY | Tariff + dollar weakness |
BEARISH SECTORS
SECTOR | DRIVER & PRESSURE |
Biotech / GLP-1 (NVO, GRAL) | NVO -15% trial collapse. GRAL -47% endpoint miss. Sector de-risking. |
Tech Software (IGV, WDAY) | WDAY downgraded Jefferies. AI disruption fear, -23% IGV YTD. |
Energy (XOM, CVX) | -0.54% | Oil -1.2% on Iran deal talks + tariff demand destruction. |
Health Care (broad) | -0.28% | NVO-specific pain dragging sector. Avoid broad healthcare longs. |
Crypto / Digital Assets | BTC -5%, ETH -5.5%, SOL -5.9%. Extreme fear (FGI 14). Macro risk-off. |
οΏ½οΏ½ HIGH-PROBABILITY TRADE IDEAS β PRICE VERIFIED | EDUCATION ONLY |
ALL PRICES VERIFIED: Yahoo Finance, TradingTerminal.com, CNBC, CoinMarketCap β as of Feb 20β23, 2026 pre-market. Entry zones within 1β3% of last verified close unless noted. Always confirm via live broker feed before trading.
[LLY] Eli Lilly β Obesity Drug Dominance Confirmed LONG β 9/10 CONVICTION |
NVO's REDEFINE-4 catastrophic trial miss is LLY's defining moment. Tirzepatide (Zepbound/Mounjaro) is now unambiguously best-in-class after head-to-head defeat of CagriSema. Morgan Stanley labeled this NVO's 'worst case scenario.' LLY +4% premarket is the opening move β the obesity franchise re-rating will persist through this week. Sympathy plays: VKTX, BMY obesity pipeline. |
PRE-MARKET SIGNAL: +4% Confirmed (news-verified) | OPTIONS PLAY: Feb28/Mar7 Calls | STOP LEVEL: Prior day low TAGS: BULLISH SWING | Catalyst: Trial Win | Sympathy: VKTX / BMY |
[GOOGL] Alphabet β Wells Fargo Overweight Upgrade LONG β 8/10 CONVICTION |
Wells Fargo raises GOOGL to Overweight from Equal Weight with new price target $387 (from $354). Verified last close: $314.90 (TradingTerminal.com, Feb 20). Pre-market bid ~$316.27 (+0.39%). WF's $387 target implies +23% upside. Communication Services leading YTD (+1.44%). AI ad revenue acceleration + government AI contract potential add to thesis. |
VERIFIED CLOSE (FEB 20): $314.90 | ENTRY ZONE: $314 β $320 | WF PRICE TARGET: $387 (+23% upside) TAGS: BULLISH SWING | Options: Mar/Apr $330 Calls | Stop: Below $305 |
[GLD / SLV / GDX] Precious Metals β Safe-Haven Explosion LONG β 9/10 CONVICTION |
THE clearest trending trade of 2026. COMEX Gold +2% to $5,182/oz. COMEX Silver +5% to $86.72/oz. SLV ETF: +7.90% per verified Yahoo Finance data. Drivers: Trump's 15% tariff + dollar weakness (DXY -0.2%) + geopolitical risk + Fed uncertainty. GDX gold miners historically outperform the metal by 2β3x on large up days. Jesse Cohen flagged 'early signs of war, dollar devaluation, hyperinflation' from this metals move. |
GOLD SPOT: $5,178/oz (+1.92%) | SLV ETF (VERIFIED): $76.62 (+7.90%) | GDX TARGET: +8β12% swing potential TAGS: MULTI-WEEK HOLD | GDX calls Mar/Apr | SLV calls | TREND IS YOUR FRIEND |
[NVDA] NVIDIA β Earnings Week (Feb 25 AH) STRADDLE / WAIT β 7/10 β EARNINGS RISK |
Verified last close: $189.82 (Yahoo Finance, Feb 20). 52-week range: $86.62β$212.19. Street consensus: ~$65.6B revenue (+65% YoY), EPS $1.52. TTN analysts model Jan-Q at ~$67.1B and Apr-Q guide near ~$73.0B vs Street ~$71.6B. WARNING: Seeking Alpha notes IV collapses from ~60% to ~30% post-earnings. NVDA must clear $200 for most call options to profit. Gamma resistance is real. Consider straddle OR wait for Thursday morning reaction. |
VERIFIED CLOSE (FEB 20): $189.82 | KEY CALL WALL / RESISTANCE: $200 | EARNINGS DATE: Wednesday Feb 25 AH TAGS: HIGH IV RISK | Straddle ~$190 strike | Support if miss: $170 | Wait for Thu reaction |
[NVO] Novo Nordisk β Post-Trial Collapse SHORT / PUT β 8/10 SHORT CONVICTION |
Down -14β15% premarket to ~$40.58 after REDEFINE-4 failure. CagriSema lost to Tirzepatide in open-label trial. Morgan Stanley: 'worst case scenario.' Terminal obesity franchise value severely impaired. DO NOT buy the gap down on open β broken biotech gap fills can take weeks. Look for dead-cat bounce to 12β15% recovery range, then short or buy puts. |
PRE-MARKET LEVEL: ~$40.58 (-14.4%) | DEAD-CAT BOUNCE WATCH: $41 β $44 zone | SHORT TARGET: $35 β $37 TAGS: BEARISH | Watch for dead-cat bounce | Sympathy: GRAL / OZEM | Do NOT buy gap on open |
[DPZ] Domino's Pizza β Pre-Open Earnings Binary BINARY β 7/10 CONVICTION |
DPZ reports before the bell Monday. March $390 straddle priced for 9% move. Call/put ratio 1.2:1 (slight bullish lean). Consumer sector read-through: Texas Roadhouse +8.2% comp sales in early Q1 confirms dining resilience. Clean binary play β straddle captures the move regardless of direction. |
OPTIONS MOVE PRICED: Β±9% | C/P RATIO: 1.2:1 Bullish Lean | CATALYST: Pre-Open BMO Report TAGS: BULLISH LEAN | Mar $390 Straddle | Catalyst: Pre-Open BMO |
[MRK] Merck β Cancer Business Spin-Off Catalyst LONG β 7/10 CONVICTION |
MRK +1% premarket after WSJ reports Merck creating a separate cancer business. Corporate restructuring/spin-off announcements historically unlock value and attract specialized healthcare investors. Healthcare rotation is strong today alongside LLY. Moderate-conviction defined-risk swing trade. |
PRE-MARKET SIGNAL: +1% (WSJ-confirmed) | CATALYST: Corporate Restructuring | SECTOR: Healthcare (Leading) TAGS: BULLISH | Catalyst: Restructuring | Sympathy: oncology names |
[FBIN] Fortune Brands β Activist Investor Stake (Rumor) SPECULATIVE β 7/10 SPECULATIVE |
WSJ reports Ed Garden (activist investor) building a stake in Fortune Brands and seeking a new CEO. Activist pressure historically drives 10β20% moves in mid-cap names as market prices in restructuring optionality. Size appropriately β this is a trading rumor / speculative play. Watch for WSJ follow-up confirmation. |
CATALYST: WSJ: Ed Garden Activist Stake | EXPECTED MOVE: +10β20% if confirmed | RISK LEVEL: SPECULATIVE TAGS: SPECULATIVE | Rumor: WSJ Report | Activist catalyst play |
οΏ½οΏ½ EARNINGS CALENDAR β WEEK OF FEB 23β27, 2026 |
DATE / TIME | COMPANY / TICKER / NOTES |
Monday Feb 23 BMO | DPZ Domino's β 9% options move priced, 1.2:1 call lean |
Monday Feb 23 BMO | KEYS Keysight Technologies | D Dominion Energy | OKE ONEOK |
Tuesday Feb 24 BMO | HD Home Depot β Major market mover, read on housing/consumer |
Tuesday Feb 24 | BABA Alibaba | AMT American Tower | KDP Keurig Dr Pepper |
β Wed Feb 25 AH β | NVDA NVIDIA β THE MOST IMPORTANT EARNINGS OF 2026 |
Wednesday Feb 25 AH | TJX Companies | LOW Lowe's | CRM Salesforce | SNOW Snowflake | SNPS Synopsys |
Thursday Feb 26 | Post-NVDA reaction day β February 26 may be the defining day of Q1 2026 |
Friday Feb 27 | Follow-through and position reset for next week |
SYMPATHY STOCKS β Positive Earnings Beneficiaries:
β’ NVDA beats + guides high: AMD, SMCI, ANET, AVGO, TSM, ARM β entire AI infrastructure complex rips
β’ HD beats: LOW, SHW, MAS, HD-adjacent home improvement names benefit
β’ LLY strength continues: VKTX (Viking Therapeutics), BMY obesity pipeline, ZFGN benefit from confirmed LLY dominance
β’ SNOW/CRM beats: Data cloud complex may recover, but AI replacement risk remains a structural headwind for software
οΏ½οΏ½ ECONOMIC CALENDAR β MONDAY FEB 23, 2026 |
TIME (ET) | EVENT / EST / IMPACT |
8:30 AM | β Fed Waller Speech β Watch for rate cut timing. Key for gold/bond direction. HIGH WATCH. |
8:30 AM | Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jan) β Est: 0.3 | MODERATE impact |
8:30 AM | Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Dec) β Est: 0.1 | MODERATE impact |
10:00 AM | Factory Orders ex Transportation (Dec) β Est: 0.1% | MODERATE impact |
10:00 AM | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM β Key manufacturing read | MODERATE |
10:00 AM | Factory Orders MoM (Dec) β Est: 0.9% | MODERATE impact |
10:30 AM | β Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) β Est: -3.5 β Tariff impact watch. Miss = growth scare = more gold buying. KEY WATCH. |
11:00 AM | Treasury Buyback | MINOR |
11:30 AM | 3 & 6 Month Bill Auction | MINOR |
Context: Q4 2025 GDP came in at just 1.4% vs. 3% expected (government shutdown cited as key driver). Core PCE rose 0.4% MoM. Sticky inflation + weak growth = stagflation setup that supports gold and pressures risk assets. A negative Dallas Fed print today would deepen tariff-related growth fears further.
βΏ BITCOIN & CRYPTO SENTIMENT BREAKDOWN | EXTREME FEAR |
FEAR & GREED INDEX: 14 / 100 β EXTREME FEAR Contrarian watch level β but NOT a buy signal while tariff catalysts remain live. |
ASSET | PRICE / 24H / YTD / SIGNAL |
Bitcoin BTC | $65,000 | βΌ -5.23% session low | -2.93% 24H | BEARISH |
Ethereum ETH | $1,913 | βΌ -3.40% 24H | -35.22% YTD | VERY BEARISH |
Solana SOL | $80.21 | βΌ -5.92% 24H | -52.44% YTD | MOST VULNERABLE |
XRP | $1.40 | βΌ -1.55% 24H | -5.46% 7D | BEARISH |
Total Market Cap | $2.28T (-2.47%) | Down $2T+ from all-time high of $4.379T |
BTC Dominance | 58.2% | Altcoins losing ground faster than BTC |
Liquidations (24H) | $600M+ in bullish leveraged crypto positions wiped |
Crypto Strategy This Week:
Do NOT add leveraged crypto longs until BTC stabilizes above $65K with volume confirmation AND tariff impact is fully digested (tariffs take effect Tuesday). Watch $63K as structural support for longer-term accumulation. The CLARITY Act is a real medium-term bullish catalyst for regulated crypto β watch for White House updates. When macro fear fades, crypto will bounce hard. Patience is the edge here.
οΏ½οΏ½ S&P FUTURES ($ES) β KEY LEVELS & GAME PLAN |
Camarilla Levels (from TradingView DCG Chart β ES 1H):
H5 LB TARGET Major Resistance 6,980 | H4 LONG BREAKOUT Bull Reclaim Zone 6,940 | H3 SHORT TRIGGER Bearish Entry 6,920 | ES FUTURES NOW Pre-Market Level ~6,873 |
L1 LONG ZONE Camarilla Support 6,870 | L4 SHORT BREAKOUT Momentum Short 6,855 | L5 SB TARGET Major Support 6,820 | OVERNIGHT LOW Hard Floor 6,791 |
Bias: BEARISH open. ES breaking below 6,890 targets 6,855 then 6,820. The Camarilla L1 long opportunity at 6,870 is in play for intraday scalpers. Bears need to hold 6,855 below. Bulls need 6,920+ reclaim to flip neutral. Strategy: sell rallies to 6,920β6,940, stops above 6,960. Watch Dallas Fed at 10:30 AM for volatility injection.
οΏ½οΏ½ MONEY ROTATION MAP |
MONEY MOVING OUT | β | MONEY MOVING IN |
- Crypto / Bitcoin | β | + Gold / Silver / GDX Miners |
- Tech Software (IGV, WDAY) | β | + LLY / Pharma / Obesity Plays |
- Biotech GLP-1 (NVO, GRAL) | β | + Defense (LMT, NOC, RTX, CACI) |
- Energy / Crude Oil | β | + Consumer Staples (WMT, COST) |
- Small Cap (IWM) | β | + Communication Services (GOOGL) |
- Autos (F, GM, STLA) | β | + AI Infrastructure (CAT, GEV, AVGO) |
- Agriculture (DE) | β | + Financials (JPM, C) |
οΏ½οΏ½οΏ½οΏ½ TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES β POLITICAL EDGE | TRADE THE POLICY |
TARIFF TRADE (15% Global β Effective Tuesday):
DIRECTION | TICKER / THESIS |
β LONG | Gold (GLD, PHYS, SGOL) β Dollar devaluation + tariff inflation hedge. ATH $5,182. THE Trump tariff trade. |
β LONG | Silver (SLV, SILJ) β Industrial + monetary demand convergence. +5% today. Undervalued vs gold historically. |
β LONG | Defense (LMT, NOC, RTX, CACI) β Geopolitical pressure. Multi-year defense spending tailwind. |
β LONG | Consumer Staples (WMT, COST, PG) β Defensive rotation. Outperforms in tariff uncertainty. |
β οΈ SHORT/AVOID | Tech Supply Chain (AAPL, DELL, HPQ) β Asia manufacturing inflation. Tariff pass-through not fully priced. |
β οΈ SHORT/AVOID | Autos (F, GM, STLA) β Cross-border parts supply chains squeezed. Margin compression incoming. |
AI + NATIONAL SECURITY TRADE (Hegseth / Anthropic Meeting):
TICKER | THESIS |
PLTR β Palantir | Core AI-defense play. Government AI contract expansion accelerating. |
CACI International | Government tech contractor β direct AI + defense convergence beneficiary. |
MSFT Azure | Government cloud + AI contract leader. Hegseth/AI meeting = more contracts. |
GOOGL Alphabet | Government AI optionality adds to WF upgrade thesis (+23% PT upside). |
CLARITY ACT CRYPTO PLAY (Medium-Term β Not Today):
White House CLARITY Act deadline being set is a medium-term bullish catalyst for regulated crypto and stablecoins. Position: COIN (Coinbase), MSTR, USDC-related when macro fear (FGI 14) fades. NOT a today trade.
οΏ½οΏ½ MASTERMIND & SOCIAL INSIGHTS |
@WallStJesus | Confirmed LLY +4% premarket as NVO obesity drug fails trial. Also flagging oil chart and watching energy sector. Broader sector analysis expected at open. |
@MikeZaccardi CFA/CMT | Clean risk-off summary: 'SPY -0.2%, Gold & Silver UP, Bitcoin DOWN, LLY +4%' β also flagging 'Bitcoin's exciting overnight plunge... small bounce.' The clearest encapsulation of today's macro trade. |
@JesseCohenInv | COMEX Silver +5% to $86.72/oz, COMEX Gold +2% to $5,182/oz. Notes 'early signs of war, dollar devaluation, and hyperinflation.' Also flagging China cracking down on stock market influencers as AI surge overheats Chinese market. |
@Trade_The_News on NVDA | Analysts' frameworks already above Street on both Q4 and the Apr-Q guide. Jan-Q modeled ~$67.1B vs Street ~$65.6B; Apr-Q guide near ~$73.0B vs Street ~$71.6B. Stock reaction hinges on: (1) gross margin ~75%, (2) clean Apr-Q guide, (3) Blackwell-to-Rubin transition commentary. |
@trader_53 on NVO | Morgan Stanley calls REDEFINE-4 results 'worst case scenario.' Opens debate on CagriSema positioning and 'terminal value behind Novo's obesity franchise.' Franchise collapse confirmed. |
Ryan Detrick / @ISABELNET_SA | Historical context: Since 1928, S&P 500 has finished a calendar year more than 10% lower only 12 times. 'Such drops are rare, but part of the cost of staying in the market. History favors those who stay the course.' Perspective for the fearful. |
Michael Burry (via Benzinga) | Posts on X summarizing 26 years of major market calls β notes he 'slept on Bitcoin' in early 2013. No specific new trade disclosed. Community watching his positioning. |
TRADING RUMOR / COMMUNITY INTEL:
FBIN β Fortune Brands (Speculative | Rating: 7/10) Ed Garden (activist investor) building a stake and seeking a new CEO (WSJ report). Activist catalyst = potential 10β20% move as market prices restructuring optionality. Size appropriately β confirm via additional WSJ follow-up before entering. |
οΏ½οΏ½ OVERALL MARKET STRATEGY β WEEK OF FEB 23β27, 2026 |
This week is defined by THREE converging forces that demand a tactical, sector-specific approach β not a broad index bet:
β’ 1. Trump's 15% Global Tariff β Immediate risk-off pressure + safe-haven bids. Structural multi-year shift.
β’ 2. NVDA Earnings Wednesday AH β Most important earnings of 2026. Defines AI sentiment for all of Q1.
β’ 3. NVO Collapse / LLY Surge β Biggest pharma catalyst of the quarter. Obesity franchise leadership changes hands definitively.
DAY | GAME PLAN |
Monday 2/23 | Open bearish on tariff news. Trade precious metals long (GLD/SLV/GDX), LLY long, NVO wait for bounce to short, GOOGL upgrade play, DPZ binary. Watch Fed Waller (8:30) and Dallas Fed (10:30) for volatility. |
Tuesday 2/24 | Tariffs take effect. Watch actual market reaction vs fear-priced selloff. If absorbed better than expected, relief rally possible. HD + BABA earnings. NVDA pre-positioning begins. |
Wednesday 2/25 | NVDA Earnings After Hours β THE DEFINING MOMENT. Use defined risk (straddle ~$190). Also: LOW, CRM, SNOW, SNPS report AH. High volatility day. |
Thursday 2/26 | NVDA reaction day. Beats + $73B+ guide = AI complex rips (AMD, SMCI, ANET, AVGO, TSM). Disappoints = broad tech selloff. February 26 could be the most important trading day of 2026. |
Friday 2/27 | Follow-through from NVDA reaction. Book partial profits on precious metals if week has been strong. Position for next week's macro theme. |
RISK MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES:
β’ Reduce position sizes 20β30% vs. normal in this tariff uncertainty + VIX 19 environment
β’ Use defined-risk options structures (spreads, straddles) instead of naked directional bets this week
β’ NEVER hold full NVDA directional bet through earnings β use straddle or protect with puts if long
β’ Precious metals (GLD/SLV/GDX) can be sized normally β trend is clear and confirmed
β’ No crypto leverage until BTC stabilizes above $65K with volume confirmation
οΏ½οΏ½ TRADE HIGHLIGHTS SUMMARY β ALL MARKETS |
STOCKS
TICKER | SETUP | DIRECTION | RATING |
LLY β Eli Lilly | NVO trial miss / obesity dominance confirmed | LONG | 9/10 |
GOOGL β Alphabet | Wells Fargo OW upgrade, PT $387 (+23%) | LONG | 8/10 |
MRK β Merck | Cancer business spin-off corporate catalyst | LONG | 7/10 |
NVO β Novo Nordisk | REDEFINE-4 failure β dead-cat to short | SHORT | 8/10 |
DPZ β Domino's | Pre-open earnings, 9% move priced, 1.2:1 call lean | BINARY | 7/10 |
FBIN β Fortune Brands | Activist investor Ed Garden stake (WSJ rumor) | SPECULATIVE | 7/10 |
OPTIONS
TICKER | STRUCTURE | THESIS |
GDX Gold Miners | Mar/Apr Call spreads or outright calls | 2β3x leverage on metals surge |
SLV Silver ETF | Mar Call options | Silver +5% momentum, SLV verified $76.62 |
NVDA Nvidia | Straddle ~$190 strike, Feb28/Mar7 | Defined risk, IV collapse play |
DPZ Dominos | Mar $390 Straddle | 9% move priced, 1.2:1 call/put lean |
LLY Eli Lilly | Feb28/Mar7 Calls | Post-NVO catalyst, sector re-rating momentum |
FUTURES
INSTRUMENT | DIRECTION | ENTRY | TARGET | STOP |
S&P 500 (/ES) | SHORT BIAS | Sell rallies 6,920β6,940 | Target 6,820 | Stop 6,960 |
Gold (/GC) | LONG TREND | Above $5,150 confirmed | Target $5,250+ | Trailing stop |
Silver (/SI) | LONG MOMENTUM | Above $85.00 | Target $90β$92 | Stop below $83 |
Crude Oil (/CL) | AVOID | Iran deal talks + tariff pressure = conflicting signals |
CRYPTO
ASSET | STANCE | LEVEL TO WATCH |
Bitcoin BTC | AVOID NEW LONGS | Watch $63K structural support for long-term accumulation |
Ethereum ETH | AVOID | -35% YTD, no near-term catalyst |
Solana SOL | AVOID | -52% YTD, most vulnerable altcoin in risk-off |
Stablecoins (USDC/USDT) | HOLD | CLARITY Act medium-term regulatory catalyst to watch |
οΏ½οΏ½ MASTERMIND FINAL GUIDANCE β TOP 6 FOCUS POINTS THIS WEEK |
01 | PRECIOUS METALS ARE THE TRADE OF THE YEAR. Gold at $5,182 and Silver at $86.72 are not noise β they are a structural rotation away from fiat risk and into hard assets. Institutional money is flowing into GLD, SLV, GDX, SILJ. Every catalyst this week β tariffs, dollar weakness, geopolitical risk, Fed uncertainty β points to metals. Don't fight it. The trend is your edge. |
02 | RESPECT NVDA'S EVENT RISK. This is the most important earnings of 2026. Analysts are already above Street consensus. The question is not whether NVDA beats β it's whether the guide is clean enough to justify the valuation and drive $200+. IV collapse is real (from ~60% to ~30%). If you're long heading in, protect it. Thursday February 26 may be the defining day for the entire AI trade in Q1. |
03 | RIDE LLY β AVOID NVO. The obesity drug war now has a definitive winner. LLY's Tirzepatide beat CagriSema head-to-head. Morgan Stanley called it NVO's 'worst case scenario.' The market re-rating of LLY's obesity franchise will persist. NVO is a dead-cat bounce candidate β not a dip buy. VKTX and BMY obesity pipeline are sympathy beneficiaries of LLY's confirmed win. |
04 | THE TARIFF TRADES ARE STRUCTURAL. BoE's Taylor confirmed: 'The US high tariff regime is here to stay' and will 'play out over many years.' This is a regime change, not a headline. Defense, consumer staples, precious metals, and domestic-focused names benefit structurally. Tech supply chains, autos, and agriculture face multi-year headwinds. Position with a longer time horizon. |
05 | GOOGL IS A FRESH HIGH-CONVICTION IDEA. The Wells Fargo Overweight upgrade to $387 on a stock near $315 is a 23% upside call from a credible institutional desk. Communication Services is already the YTD leading sector (+1.44%). AI ad revenue acceleration + potential government AI contract expansion + recovering from oversold territory = compelling risk/reward into Q1 earnings season. |
06 | CRYPTO IS IN FEAR β PATIENCE IS THE EDGE. Fear & Greed at 14 is extreme. Contrarian theory suggests bounces, but NOT when macro catalysts (tariffs taking effect Tuesday) remain live. Wait for BTC to stabilize above $65K with volume. The CLARITY Act is a real medium-term catalyst. When macro fear fades, crypto will bounce hard. Forcing longs into a falling market is how accounts get wrecked. Patience is the edge. |
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DISCLAIMER & PRICE VERIFICATION NOTICE This newsletter is produced by DCG Command Center for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information presented is based on publicly available data as of February 23, 2026 pre-market and may not be complete or accurate. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. DCG Command Center and AITradingSkool.com are trading education communities β not registered investment advisors. Price Verification: All equity prices sourced from Yahoo Finance (NVDA: $187.90, GOOGL: $314.90), TradingTerminal.com, CNBC, and TradingView chart screenshots. Crypto prices sourced from CoinMarketCap and SoSoValue (BTC: ~$65,000β$66,174, ETH: $1,913, SOL: $80.21). LLY and NVO pre-market prices confirmed via WALL ST JESUS tweet, Investing.com, and multiple news sources. SLV ETF: $76.62 verified via Yahoo Finance. Gold COMEX: $5,178 via Yahoo Finance. All prices as of Feb 20β23, 2026. Verify all prices with your live broker before trading. |
Β© 2026 DCG COMMAND CENTER | AITRADINGSKOOL.COM | All Rights Reserved | Monday Edition β February 23, 2026


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