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- Trade War - Trade it! π Market Frenzy: Stocks & Crypto Ignite Volatility β π₯ π‘ Trade War Shockwaves, Our DCG Mastermind Intraday Playbook!
Trade War - Trade it! π Market Frenzy: Stocks & Crypto Ignite Volatility β π₯ π‘ Trade War Shockwaves, Our DCG Mastermind Intraday Playbook!
π Market Status β Tuesday, March 4, 2025π Trade War Hits Hard: Fresh 25% tariffs spark market sell-offs, with automakers and semiconductors feeling the pain.πΎ AI & Tech Surge: OKTA, ONON, and GTLB rally post-earnings, capitalizing on AI-driven market momentum.π‘οΈ Defense & Energy Shifts: Lockheed Martin (LMT) unveils new missile tech, while OXY and crude oil plunge on OPEC+ production boost.
Stock Market Overview & Trading Sentiment
The global equity markets opened lower as trade war concerns escalated with new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China, Canada, and Mexico, leading to retaliatory tariffs. The USD weakened, while gold and silver gained due to increased risk-off sentiment. The VIX spiked above 20, signaling a shift toward higher market volatility.
Key Market Drivers Today:
Trade War Escalation
20% tariff on China and 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico led to immediate retaliation.
Automakers like Volkswagen, Renault, BMW, and Stellantis saw losses of 2-5%.
Oil declined further, weighing on energy stocks.
Economic Data & Key Reports
Fedβs Williams speaks today, influencing rate outlook.
Earnings Reports:
Beats: Okta (OKTA), GitLab (GTLB), On Holdings (ONON), Target (TGT)
Misses: Sea Limited (SE)
ISM Services, Factory Orders, Crude Oil Inventories, and Beige Book reports tomorrow.
Sector Trends & Key Movers
Defensive Plays Rising: Utilities & Healthcare outperformed.
Big Tech Weakness: TSMC (-2.25%) after announcing a $100B U.S. investment.
Consumer Spending Trends Mixed: Target reported strong Valentineβs Day sales but softened in late February.
Retail Discretionary Weakness: Reports suggest weak Q1 guidance for most consumer stocks.
China Stimulus Expectations: Supportive for Chinese tech stocks.
Momentum Stocks Today
Gainers: OKTA (+16%), SE (+10.7%), WBA (+5.7%), ONON (+9.6%)
Losers: GCT (-13.8%), DSP (-11%), ATEC (-9.5%), EBS (-8.5%), SMCI (-4.8%)
Trade War Analysis: Market Impact and Moving Forward
The Anticipated Trade War
The market and many investors expected that Trump's return to office would bring renewed trade tensions. This recent escalation of tariffs, while significant, was largely priced into market expectations following the election results.
What Just Happened
A massive trade policy shift occurred overnight:
The largest U.S. tariff increase since 1930 went into effect at 12:01 AM ET
25% tariffs placed on goods from Canada and Mexico
Increased tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 20%
Retaliatory measures followed quickly:
Canada imposed 25% tariffs on $155 billion of U.S. goods ($30 billion immediately, $125 billion over 21 days)
China announced retaliatory tariffs up to 15% primarily targeting U.S. agricultural products
Market Impact
Massive Value Decline: $2 trillion wiped from S&P 500 and crypto markets over two days
Cryptocurrency Losses: $420 billion market cap reduction in ~36 hours (from $3.11T to $2.69T)
Gold Outperforming: While Bitcoin dropped 12%, gold prices increased by over 1%
Supply Chain Disruption: 40% of all U.S. imports come from the affected countries
Key Industry Exposure:
Auto industry: $80 billion in annual imports from Canada and Mexico
Energy sector: $97 billion in crude oil from Canada annually
Technology: $55 billion in phones imported from China
Current Tariff Structure
25% tariffs on Mexican goods to U.S.
25% tariffs on non-energy Canadian goods to U.S.
20% tariffs on many Chinese goods to U.S.
10% tariffs on Canadian energy to U.S.
25% retaliatory tariffs on $155B of U.S. goods to Canada
10-15% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods to China
Strategic Position
The U.S. holds a stronger negotiating position as:
Trade represents less than 30% of U.S. GDP
By comparison, trade accounts for 85% of Germany's GDP and 65% of UK's GDP
This asymmetry gives the U.S. significant leverage in trade negotiations
Moving Forward
For investors and businesses looking to navigate this new landscape:
Volatility creates trading opportunities, as seen during Trump's first term
Domestic supply chains and manufacturers may benefit from reduced foreign competition
Industries heavily dependent on imports will face increased costs
Geographic diversification of supply chains may accelerate
Companies with pricing power can pass costs to consumers, those without will face margin pressure
This aggressive trade stance appears to be a negotiating tactic aimed at securing more favorable trade terms. While disruptive in the short term, markets will likely adapt as new trade equilibriums are established.
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Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Sentiment Analysis for Intraday Trading
Current Market State
Overall Market Trend: Strongly bearish, with most major cryptocurrencies showing significant losses
Bitcoin: Trading at $82,700 (-8.01% 24h), "VERY BEARISH" sentiment indicator reading of 18.1
Total Market Cap: Declined to approximately $2.77T (-6.93% in 24h)
24h Trading Volume: $180-207B, indicating heightened activity during sell-off
Fear & Greed Index: Reading of 24 ("Fear"), reflecting extreme market anxiety
Key Technical Indicators for Bitcoin
BTC has experienced a sharp decline from recent highs near $95,000
Price is currently testing support around $82,000-$82,500
Chart shows multiple large red candles indicating strong selling pressure
Trading below all major moving averages on hourly timeframe
ATR (Average True Range) showing elevated volatility at 5738.39, suggesting continued turbulence
Altcoin Performance
Ethereum: Down 9.71% to $2,064, "VERY BEARISH" sentiment reading of 13.2
XRP: Down 10.21% to $2.33, "SLIGHTLY BEARISH" at 33.5
BNB: Down 4.23% to $567, "SLIGHTLY BEARISH" at 20.4
SOL: Significant decline of 13.95% to $134.68
ADA: Down 14.66% to $0.8153
DOGE: Down 11.08% to $0.19
Intraday Trading Opportunities
Short-Term Trades
Potential Bounces: Watch for short-term relief rallies at key support levels:
Bitcoin: $82,000 and $80,500
Ethereum: $2,000 and $1,950
Outlier Assets: Some smaller cryptocurrencies showing strength amid the sell-off:
SFM: +26.48% (potential momentum play)
PNUT: +5.44% (showing relative strength)
REQ: +4.59% (outperforming market)
Risk Management Guidelines
Set tight stop losses (2-3% below entry)
Reduce position sizes by 50% until volatility subsides
Consider using limit orders rather than market orders to avoid slippage
Keep cash reserves for potential better entry points if further downside occurs
Catalysts To Watch Today
Trade War Developments: Any statements about easing or escalating tariffs will cause immediate market reactions
Exchange Outflows: Monitor for any significant BTC movements to/from exchanges
Stablecoin Flows: Watch USDT inflows to exchanges as potential sign of buying interest
Derivative Markets: Funding rates and open interest changes will signal market sentiment shifts
Technical Levels to Monitor
BTC Support Levels: $82,000, $80,500, $78,000
BTC Resistance Levels: $85,000, $87,500, $90,000
Volume Profile: Watch for increasing volume at support levels as potential sign of accumulation
Final Sentiment Assessment
The crypto market is experiencing significant fear-driven selling pressure following the trade war escalation. While short-term sentiment remains strongly bearish, extreme fear readings historically present contrarian buying opportunities for aggressive traders. Conservative traders should wait for signs of volume-supported price stabilization before establishing new positions.

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