Stocks, Options and Crypto Trading Plan - April Ignites: Your Ultimate Trading Blueprint for March 31 – April 5, 2025"

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WEEKLY TRADING PLAN & MARKET MASTERMIND FOR : March 31 - April 5, 2025
( This week we have open enrollment in DCG Mastermind, schedule your call or use the link below to join) April 1st 2025 we are rolling out a special program in April for those new to DCG Mastermind)

🔢 OVERVIEW:

• Market Regime: High volatility, shifting macro tone (tariffs, inflation, Q1 data dump)

• SPX Watch: Key level at 5565 (JPM collar), support zones at 5500 and 5425

• Volatility Spike Expected: April 2 (Tariff Implementation), April 4 (Jobs Report & Powell)

• Seasonality: Bullish first week of April, statistically strongest two days are Tues/Wed (April 1–2), with average weekly gain of +2.6% for Nasdaq in post-election years. April has been the best month for Nasdaq since 1971 and second best for S&P.

  • 4/1: S&P up 71.4% of the time

  • 4/2: S&P up 81% of the time

  • 4/4: S&P up 61.9%

  • Weekly Avg: 61%

🗓️ DAILY TRADING PLAN – MARCH 31 TO APRIL 5, 2025

🔹 Monday, March 31

• Earnings: PVH (after close)

• Economic Events: Chicago PMI (9:45 AM), Dallas Fed Manufacturing (10:30 AM)

• Strategy: Scalp PVH pre-earnings. Watch initial reaction to PMI for ES/NQ chop inside 5601–5625 zone.

🔹 Tuesday, April 1

• Earnings: NCNO, SPWH (after close)

• Economic Events: ECB Speech (8:30 AM), ISM Manufacturing (10:00 AM), JOLTs (10:00 AM)

• Seasonality: Very bullish (S&P up 71.4% of time)

• Strategy: Breakout plays above ES 5628, NQ 19413. Fade autos on tariff chatter.

🔹 Wednesday, April 2

• Earnings: RH, BB (after close)

• Economic Events: ADP Employment (8:15 AM), Factory Orders (10:00 AM)

• Seasonality: Highest bullish day (S&P up 81%)

• Strategy: Bullish bias into afternoon. Crypto scalps on ETH/BTC rotation. Watch volume breakout on RNDR/SOL.

🔹 Thursday, April 3

• Earnings: CAG, MSM (before open); GES (after close)

• Economic Events: Jobless Claims (8:30 AM), ISM Services (10:00 AM)

• Strategy: Short weak retail names. Look for rejection at ES 5650. Watch ARB support near $0.32.

🔹 Friday, April 4

• Earnings: None major

• Economic Events: NFP (8:30 AM), Powell Speech (11:25 AM)

• Seasonality: Neutral-bullish

• Strategy: Straddle NFP, fade reaction spike. Watch BTC for breakout/failure at $84K. ETH leading into weekend.

🔹 Saturday, April 5

• Market Closed – Position management, weekend altcoin scans

• Strategy: Watch momentum leaders. Focus on SOL, RNDR, ETH/BTC follow-through. Prepare for CPI/FOMC next week.

📊 ES/NQ KEY LEVELS – MARCH 31, 2025

E-mini S&P 500 (ES) Key Levels:

• Buy Zones: 5628, 5662 | Alt: 5585, 5545, 5508

• Sell Zones: 5600, 5581 | Alt: 5650, 5714

• Targets: 5650, 5688, 5700+

• CHOP ZONE: 5601–5625 (High liquidity zone, stop runs expected)

• Microstructure Game Plan: Buy reclaim of 5628 or defend 5601 → Target 5650–5688. Short failure at 5600 or fade 5650 → Target 5585, 5545.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ) Key Levels:

• Buy Zones: 19413, 19490

• Sell Zones: 19290

• Targets: 19780, 20020 | Lower: 19100, 18940

• CHOP ZONE: 19290–19490

⚖️ TRADE SETUPS & IDEAS

Bullish Plays:

• $PGR calls above 279.85

• $O calls above 56.75

• $XOM calls above 118.47

• $CAG April 28C on whisper beat

• $CMCSA June 35C breakout from value zone

• $CVS April 68C breakout above 67.50 trigger

• $LW July 55 / April 60 Call Diagonal for activist momentum

Bearish Plays:

• $TGT puts below 102.35

• $CCL puts below 19.65

• $QCOM puts below 151.55

• $PVH April 60P (miss + short buildup)

• $LPRO April 2.5P (guidance weakness)

• Autos: Short CARZ ETF post-tariff

LEAP Watchlist (6–9 months):

• AAPL 260C

• NVDA 150C

Seasonality Edge:

• April 1–2 = highest win rate days

• Historically strong post-election April

• Rally potential post-tariff/Powell clarity

₿ CRYPTO TRADING OUTLOOK

• BTC: $82,710.99

• ETH: $1,821.86

COT Sentiment Highlights:

• BTC: Net short -6,327 contracts | Bias: 6/10 Neutral-Bearish

• ETH: Net long +42,843 contracts | Bias: 8/10 Bullish

ETH/BTC Ratio Play:

• Long ETH vs BTC while BTC near $84K resistance, ETH holds $1,780

Top Altcoin Trades Ahead of Token2049 (April 16–17):

• SOL ($125.56): Breakout above $130 → Target $145–150

• RNDR ($3.49): Breakout above $3.70 → Target $4.20

• LDO ($0.866): Hold above $0.85 → Target $0.95

• ARB ($0.334): Base near $0.32 → Target $0.38

Crypto Market Positioning Summary:

• BTC: Balanced with bearish tilt; fade rallies

• ETH: Bullish with strong positioning

• ETH/BTC: ETH likely to outperform near term

Execution Notes:

• BTC short setup near $84.5K–$86K

• ETH long setup near $1,780–$1,820

• ETH/NASDAQ tech correlation strong: long both on dip

📈 INDICES COT REPORT SNAPSHOT – WEEK OF MARCH 31, 2025

S&P 500 E-mini: 6/10 – Cautiously Bullish

• Net long +127,843 contracts

• Slight bullish lean, reduced conviction

NASDAQ-100 E-mini: 7/10 – Moderately Bullish

• Net long +156,247 contracts

• Tech sector resilience, relative strength

Russell 2000 E-mini: 9/10 – Bearish

• Net short -78,342 contracts

• Institutions unloading small caps

VIX Futures: 9/10 – Bullish (Expect Volatility Spike)

• Net long +41,932 contracts

• Volatility positioning rising sharply

Execution Plan:

• Pair trade: Long Nasdaq / Short Russell

• VIX long hedge on dips <15

• Caution on S&P: cautious bull but fading strength

Correlation Highlights:

• ETH ↔ Nasdaq: +0.52 (Growth tech alignment)

• BTC ↔ Gold: +0.35 (Gold outperforming)

• BTC, ETH ↔ USD: Inversely correlated

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