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Market Performance:
The S&P 500 (SPX) experienced significant weakness, logging what social media users described as the "worst day in the stock market in 2025." Ryan Detrick noted that the S&P 500 is down an annualized 86.1% on Fridays in 2025, with only 1937 being worse historically. The index saw a -2.1% decline from its recent all-time highs, marking a failed breakout similar to mid-January, which led to a -3.2% drop then (Caleb Franzen).

• Futures indicated a flat open but closed the week with notable downside pressure, driven by options expiration dynamics and macro concerns (OptionsHawk). The SPX implied range for the current week was +/- 72 points, with a lower bound of 6043 and an upper bound of 6187.
  

• The VIX (volatility index) spiked, with Cheddar Flow noting abnormal $VIX call premium activity for three consecutive days, indicating heightened fear. Mike Zaccardi mentioned a "Sunday night thing" happening early, suggesting pre-weekend panic selling.

1. Sector and Stock Movements:
   

   • Gainers: Notable performers included CELH (up 232% due to the Alani Nutrition acquisition), GDYN (18%), IGRAL (13%), MELI (11%), and BJRI (10%) (OptionsHawk). Other stocks like BKNG (2%) and NVO (3%) also saw gains.

   • Losers: Significant decliners included AXTI (-15%), IAKK (-13%), GKOS (-13%), CARG (-11%), GLOB (-11%), and HIMS (-25.79%, per MIGHTYMO’s portfolio update). Tesla (TSLA) dropped -29.7%, and other "Magnificent Seven" stocks like MSFT (-12.7%), AMZN (-10.6%), and NVDA (-10.0%) saw substantial drawdowns (Mike Zaccardi).
     

   • Defensive Sectors: There was a "flight to quality" into big pharma, stable telecoms, household staples, regulated utilities, and China tech, as noted by Mike Zaccardi, reflecting a defensive tone amid market turbulence.
     

2. Macro and News Drivers:
   

   • Eurozone PMIs showed tepid growth, UK retail sales rebounded strongly (1.7% m/m), but France’s private sector contracted sharply. Japan’s CPI and manufacturing data pointed to a hawkish Bank of Japan outlook, while German manufacturing improved but services weakened.
     

   • Tariff concerns and Trump’s trade deal comments with China added headline risk, potentially impacting markets in March.

   • A DOJ investigation into UnitedHealth Group (UNH) billing practices and Tesla’s (TSLA) recall of nearly 380,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to power steering issues contributed to negative sentiment.

   • The market saw increased volatility due to options expiration (OPEX) and gamma squeeze dynamics, as Jason from 3PeaksTrading suggested, with bears getting squeezed into new highs earlier in the week but selling off heavily today.

     
     

3. Earnings and Corporate Actions:
   

   • Earnings season is 80% complete, with next week featuring reports from NVDA, HD, CRM, INTU, LOW, TJX, BUD, AMT, DELL, and others (OptionsHawk). Today’s earnings review showed mixed results: AKAM beat EPS estimates ($1.66 vs. $1.52), CELH met expectations, but XYZ (Block) missed EPS ($0.71 vs. $0.88).

   • Corporate actions included CELH’s $1.8B acquisition of Alani Nutrition, TXRH’s $500M buyback, EXEL’s $500M buyback, and LOAR’s bolt-on deal for LMB Fans & Motors.
     

4. Technical and Sentiment:
   

   • The NAAIM Exposure Index hit a 2025 high of 91.5, raising concerns about where incremental buyers will come from (OptionsHawk). Technical scans showed bullish reversals in stocks like TM, MCD, and CB, but the broader market showed bearish momentum with MACD bear crosses and oversold conditions in some names.

1. Crypto Currency Market Performance:
   

   • Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant volatility, peaking above $99,000 earlier today but dropping to $95,080 by the afternoon, marking its lowest daily close since January 13, 2025 (Caleb Franzen, Bitcoin Archive). The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index stood at 55 (Greed), despite the sell-off (Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index).
     

   • Ethereum (ETH) faced a massive blow due to the Bybit hack, with over $1.46B in ETH and stETH stolen, marking the largest crypto hack in history (Cult of Blockchain, Ash Crypto, borovik). This event caused panic but didn’t drag the broader crypto market down as much as expected, with some suggesting potential bullish resilience (borovik).
     

2. Bybit Hack:
   

   • At approximately 12:30 PM UTC, Bybit detected unauthorized activity in its ETH Multisig Cold Wallet during a routine transfer, resulting in the loss of over $1.5B in ETH and stETH (Cult of Blockchain, Wu Blockchain). The Lazarus Group, a North Korea-backed hacker group, was identified as responsible by on-chain analyst ZachXBT, confirmed by Arkham (WIZZ🥷, Kyle Chassé).
     

   • Bybit stated that withdrawals are operating as usual, with 70% of pending requests processed, and the exchange has sufficient reserves ($20B AUM) to cover losses, potentially using a bridge loan if needed (Cult of Blockchain). Binance and Bitget deposited over 50,000 ETH into Bybit’s cold wallets to help maintain liquidity (Ash Crypto, Wu Blockchain).

   • Social media reactions ranged from panic (e.g., WIZZ🥷’s “The $ETH is gone”) to bullish opportunism (e.g., PONKE calling $COIN a “screaming buy” after the sell-off).
     

3. Other Crypto News:
   

   • Franklin Templeton filed an S-1 for a spot Solana (SOL) ETF with the SEC, adding bullish momentum for SOL (Kyle Chassé, Ash Crypto, Wu Blockchain).
     

   • Whale movements included $800M USDC transferred from the USDC Treasury to Coinbase, sparking speculation of institutional buying or market stabilization efforts (Whale Alert, Kyle Chassé, Ash Crypto).
     

   • Speculation about a Solana ETF and North Korea’s potential involvement in crypto hacks (e.g., bridging ETH to SOL) fueled discussions (borovik, Seraphim).
     

4. Sentiment and Technicals:
   

   • Bitcoin showed oversold conditions on the 1-hour RSI (below 25), suggesting a potential bounce (Caleb Franzen). ProblemSniper called Bitcoin’s move a “fake out,” while PONKE saw $COIN as undervalued post-sell-off, targeting $270 by March.
     

   • Ethereum’s reliability and neutrality were questioned due to the hack, with debates about a potential chain rollback (borovik, Bitcoin News). However, Bitcoin holders in cold storage were touted as insulated from such events (Bitcoin Archive).

     
     Possible Trades with Positive Sentiment Moving Forward This Week

Stock Market Trades (Bullish Opportunities)

Cardinal Health (CAH):

Why: The stock is forming a bull flag near $125, with a potential rally to $130–$132.84 (all-time high). It’s riding the 55-day MA, and the healthcare sector is seeing bullish action as a defensive play amid market rotation.

• Entry: Buy near $125, target $130–$133, stop-loss below $122.

• Options: Consider buying March $130 calls or selling March $130 short puts with existing open interest.
  

Noble Corporation (NE):

Why: Insider buying (CEO and CFO purchasing $575K worth of stock on 2/20), a 7.2% dividend yield, and bullish RSI divergence on the weekly chart suggest a potential bottom near multi-year lows ($27.50). Analysts see targets of $38–$43.

Entry: Buy near $27.85–$28, target $32–$38, stop-loss below $27.

• Options: Consider March $30 calls or Jan 2027 $32.50 bull synthetics based on open interest.
  

Celsius (CELH):

Why: Surged 232% today due to the $1.8B Alani Nutrition acquisition, showing strong momentum. It’s a consumer goods play with bullish sentiment reflected in market activity and social media.

• Entry: Buy on pullbacks near $230–$240, target $250–$260, stop-loss below $220.
  

• Options: Monitor open interest for March or April calls (e.g., $250 calls).

Cryptocurrency Trades (Bullish Opportunities)

Bitcoin (BTC):

Why: Oversold on the 1-hour RSI (below 25), with potential for a bounce after dropping to $95,080. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index at 55 (Greed) suggests residual bullish sentiment despite the sell-off. VanEck’s outlook on the U.S. stacking 1M BTC by 2029 adds long-term support (Kyle Chassé).

• Entry: Buy near $95,000–$96,000, target $99,000–$100,000, stop-loss below $94,000.

• Considerations: Use cold storage for safety, given the Bybit hack concerns.

Coinbase (COIN):

• Why: Highlighted as a “screaming buy” after an 8.24% weekly drop, despite strong Q4 earnings and SEC case dismissal (PONKE). Crypto trading volume and regulatory shifts support upside potential, with a target of $270 by March.
  

• Entry: Buy near $250–$255, target $270–$280, stop-loss below $245.
  

• Options: Monitor open interest for March or June calls (e.g., $265 calls).

  
  

Solana (SOL):

• Why: Franklin Templeton’s S-1 filing for a spot SOL ETF signals bullish institutional interest. Despite the Bybit hack’s ETH focus, SOL’s ecosystem (e.g., Polygon withdrawals) is gaining traction (Ash Crypto, borovik).
  

• Entry: Buy near $140–$145, target $150–$160, stop-loss below $138.
  

• Considerations: Watch for ETF approval progress and North Korea-related hack risks.

Things to Watch Out For (Negative Sentiment Risks)

Stock Market:

Market Volatility and OPEX: Options expiration today drove a gamma squeeze downside, and Friday weakness could persist into next week (Jason, Ryan Detrick). VIX spikes suggest continued fear, especially with weekend news risks (Cheddar Flow, Mike Zaccardi).

• Macro Headwinds: Tariff talks, Trump’s trade deal comments with China, and potential regulatory changes (e.g., UNH DOJ investigation) could increase headline risk in March.
  

• Earnings Risks: Next week’s earnings from NVDA, HD, CRM, etc., could disappoint if growth slows, given the 80% completion of earnings season and elevated NAAIM Exposure Index.

• Sector Weakness: Tech (e.g., TSLA -29.7%, MSFT -12.7%) and growth stocks remain vulnerable, with a flight to defensive sectors indicating broader market concerns (Mike Zaccardi).

  
  

• Cryptocurrency Market:

Bybit Hack Aftermath: The $1.46B ETH hack by the Lazarus Group could trigger further sell-offs or regulatory scrutiny, especially if Ethereum’s reliability is questioned (borovik, Bitcoin News). Watch for chain rollback debates or institutional exits.

• North Korea Risks: Lazarus Group’s involvement raises geopolitical risks, potentially impacting broader crypto sentiment and causing panic selling (Kyle Chassé, Cult of Blockchain).

  
  

• Regulatory Uncertainty: Australia’s ACCC concerns about U.S. crypto regulations could create instability for global markets, particularly for exchanges like Coinbase (Bitcoin News).

  
  

• Bitcoin Volatility: Despite oversold signals, a failure to hold $95,000 could lead to further declines toward $90,000 or below, especially if macro fears intensify (Caleb Franzen).

Moving Forward Bullets

Monitor Macro Data: Watch next week’s Durable Goods (Thursday) and Personal Income/Spending + inflation data (Friday) for signs of economic weakness or inflation pressure that could affect both stocks and crypto.

• Track Earnings: Focus on NVDA, HD, CRM, INTU, and other key reports for growth signals or disappointments that could drive market rotations.

  
  VIX and Volatility: Keep an eye on $VIX futures and call premium activity for signs of sustained fear or stabilization (Cheddar Flow, Mike Zaccardi).

• Bybit Hack Resolution: Follow Bybit’s recovery efforts, Binance/Bitget support, and Lazarus Group developments for crypto market stability (Cult of Blockchain, Arkham).

• ETF Progress: Monitor Franklin Templeton’s Solana ETF filing and potential SEC approvals for bullish crypto catalysts (Kyle Chassé, Wu Blockchain).

• Technical Levels: For stocks, watch SPX 6043 (support) and 6187 (resistance); for crypto, monitor BTC $95,000 (support) and $99,000 (resistance), and SOL $140–$150 (Caleb Franzen).

Notable Corporate Developments

Technology (XLK, SMH, IGV, XLC)

• Akamai (AKAM): Signed a $100 million cloud computing deal with a major tech company.

• Five9 (FIVN): Announced retirement of CFO Barry Zwarenstein, with Bryan Lee stepping in as interim CFO.

• YOU Inc.: Declared a quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share and a special dividend of $0.27 per share, while also expanding its share repurchase program by $200 million​.

Industrials (XLI, IYT, PPA, ITB)

• LOAR: Guided Q4 revenue above consensus, issued FY25 guidance, and acquired LMB Fans & Motors for €365 million plus assumed net debt​.

Energy & Materials (XLB, XLE, XOP, TAN, XME)

• Diamondback Energy (FANG): Announced that CEO Travis Stice will step down, and current President Kaes Van't Hof will assume the role​.

• Air Liquide: Raised its medium-term operating margin guidance and extended the target period by one year after slightly beating 2024 sales expectations​.

Stock Upgrades & Downgrades

Upgrades:

• Grab Holdings (GRAB): Raised to Overweight at JPM due to strong earnings expectations.

• Terreno Realty (TRNO): Upgraded to Buy at Goldman Sachs.

• Unity Software (U): Upgraded to Buy at HSBC.

• Floor & Decor (FND): Upgraded to Buy at Gordon Haskett​.

Downgrades:

• Akamai (AKAM): Downgraded to Neutral by Piper Sandler, Cowen, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

• Rivian (RIVN): Cut to Neutral by Cowen.

• Jack in the Box (JACK): Cut to Neutral by Wedbush​.

Initiations:

• Vista Energy (VIST): Initiated as Buy at Goldman Sachs with a $65.40 price target.

• CLS Holdings (CLS): Started Overweight at JPM​.

Options & Technical Analysis Insights

• Exelixis (EXEL): Forming a bull flag on the weekly chart, holding the 21-week EMA.

• CLS Holdings (CLS): Consolidating in a bullish pattern, with $131.7 as a key breakout level​.

Macroeconomic & Market Sentiment

• Interest Rate Sensitivity: With inflation in focus, the Federal Reserve's next moves on interest rates continue to be a major market driver.

• Geopolitical Events: The U.S. is moving forward with reciprocal tariffs, sparking concerns about international trade relations.

• Market Volatility: Analysts are closely watching whether the market will remain bullish, or if geopolitical tensions and rate hikes will introduce downside risks​.

Final Takeaway

February 21st reflected a sectorally mixed market environment, with tech and consumer staples leading while financials and industrials saw varied performance. The earnings season continued with strong results from some firms but warnings about economic uncertainty. Interest rate speculation remains high as investors await further Fed guidance.

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