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🎯 Executive Summary & Key Themes

Bottom Line Up Front

• Tuesday: Tariff delay boost + crypto conference momentum

• Wednesday: NVDA earnings day - 7.9% implied move, cheaper Blackwell chip catalyst

• Thursday: GDP data + mega earnings blitz (COST, DELL, MRVL)

• Friday: Core PCE (Fed's key inflation gauge) + month-end rebalancing

Major Market Catalysts

1. Trump delays EU tariffs to July 9 → Risk-on for Industrials, Autos, Luxury

2. NVDA earnings Wednesday → AI sector catalyst, 64% revenue growth expected

3. Core PCE Friday → Fed policy implications, biggest macro event

4. 10 Fed speakers this week → Policy guidance overdose
   

🗓️ Daily Trading Action Plans

Monday 5/26 - Memorial Day (Markets Closed)

Status: US equity markets closed Focus: Crypto & FX only, low liquidity Preparation:

• Review watchlists

• Check crypto news and weekend developments

• Monitor box office results (DIS vs PARA sentiment read-through)

Tuesday 5/27 - Macro Data + Bitcoin Conference

📊 Key Events

• 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders

• 10:00 AM: Consumer Confidence

• All Day: Bitcoin 2025 Conference (Vance, Saylor, HOOD CEO speaking)

• Evening: 3 Fed speakers (Williams, Waller, Kashkari)

🎯 Trading Strategy

Pre-Market Setup

• Gap watch: S&P futures +0.8% on tariff relief

• COIN 235C 5/31 - Long ≤ $3.20, target $6, stop $1.50 🚀

Market Hours

• 8:30 AM: XLI scalp on Durable Goods beat/miss

• 10:00 AM: Fade Consumer Confidence knee-jerk via XLY scalp

• Midday: AZO post-earnings condor if ±3% move

After Hours

• OKTA 85 straddle 5/31 - Pay ≤ $7.00 🎯

• BOX 33 call fly - Size 0.5% account

💡 Trade Focus

• Crypto theme: COIN, MSTR, HOOD bullish on Bitcoin conference

• Tariff beneficiaries: XLI, XLY industrials and consumer discretionary

• Earnings: AZO (high-priced straddle scalp), OKTA strangle play

Wednesday 5/28 - NVDA Day + FOMC Minutes

📊 Key Events

• 8:30 AM: AMD at TD Cowen Conference, Visa at Bernstein

• 2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes release

• 4:20 PM: NVDA earnings (consensus $0.85 EPS, $42.71B revenue)

• After Hours: CRM, DKS, ANF, M, HPQ earnings

🎯 Trading Strategy

Morning Setup

• SPY 528 straddle 5/29 - Enter ≤ $5.80 debit 🔔

• XLE scalp on OPEC+ headlines, hedge with USO puts if bearish

Afternoon Focus

• 1:45 PM: Flatten intraday risk before FOMC Minutes

• 3:55 PM: Load earnings structures:

  • NVDA 130C/110P strangle 5/30 - Total debit ≤ $10.50 📈

  • CRM 245/250/255 call fly 5/30 - Debit ≤ $1.05 📊

💡 NVDA Deep Dive

• Implied Move: 7.9% (stock averaged 7.3% recent quarters)

• Key Catalyst: Cheaper Blackwell chip for China adds upside skew

• Technical: Bull flagging, $142 resistance, $122.50 volatility stop

• Positioning: 75% expect beat, short interest up 3.4%

🎪 Supporting Cast

• CRM: Software leader, Agentforce AI platform momentum

• AMD: Sympathy play to NVDA, presenting at conference

• Energy: OPEC+ JMMC meeting could create XLE volatility

Thursday 5/29 - GDP + Mega Earnings Blitz

📊 Key Events

• 8:30 AM: Q1 GDP (2nd reading) + Jobless Claims

• 5 Fed Speakers: Barkin, Goolsbee, Kugler, Daly, Logan

• Earnings Tsunami: COST, DELL, MRVL, ZS, LI, BBY, KSS, BURL, ULTA

🎯 Trading Strategy

Pre-GDP (8:25 AM)

• SPX 5820 pin watch

• Enter GDP straddle if futures flat

Post-GDP

• If GDP ≥1.6% → fade TLT (buy 90/88 put spread)

• XLE 93C 5/30 - Buy ≤ $1.35 if energy headlines develop ⛽

Midday

• DELL 140C 0DTE - Entry ≤ $1.20 if stock >$135, scale 50% at 100% gain 💻

End of Day

• MRVL 80C vs 85C (1×2) 6/6 - Net credit ≥ $0.10 ⚡

• Roll profitable positions, prep for PCE Friday

💡 Earnings Focus

• COST: $4.25 EPS expected, 4.2% implied move, potential stock split catalyst

• DELL: AI infrastructure play, 6.2% implied move, $126 avg target

• MRVL: Data infrastructure, 12.1% implied move, 61.9% revenue growth expected

Friday 5/30 - PCE + Month-End Volatility

📊 Key Events

• 8:30 AM: Core PCE (Fed's preferred inflation gauge)

• 10:00 AM: Consumer Sentiment

• All Day: ASCO Conference (biotech), Ira Sohn HK

• Month-End: Rebalancing flows

🎯 Trading Strategy

PCE Two-Step Plan (8:30 AM)

• If PCE <0.2%: QQQ 460C 0DTE - Risk-on inflation relief 📈

• If PCE ≥0.3%: SPX 5250P 0DTE - Defensive hedge 🛡️

Mid-Morning (10:15 AM)

• XBI 104 straddle 6/7 - Biotech scalps on ASCO headlines 💊

Afternoon (2:00 PM)

• Reduce risk into month-end rebalance

• Take profits on weekly runners

• Crypto: Trail stops on COIN if BTC pushes >112k

💡 PCE Context

• March reading: 2.6% year-over-year

• Fed's key inflation metric

• Powell absent but 2 Fed speakers later (Bostic, Goolsbee)

CRYPTOCURRENCY WEEKLY UPDATE & INSIDER NOTES

Macro Trend:

• Bitcoin broke ATH with minimal retail interest — suggesting more upside potential.

• $533M USDC minted across Solana/Ethereum before Memorial Day; liquidity spike expected.

• Hyperliquid dominates DEXs: $7.3B daily volume, $1.2B position close success, $3M daily fees.

• Whale alert: $75M ETH OTC buys; $BTC shorts closed at ~$15M loss. $ETH and $BTC looking bullish mid-term.

Insider Alpha Watchlist

Strategy Outlook (Week Ahead)

1. Core: Hold BTC & ETH longs; trail stops 3 %.

2. Rotation: Scale into SOL ecosystem once $170 breaks.

3. Alt Momentum: Trade HYPE / PURR / BUDDY breakouts; keep risk ≤1 % each.

4. DeFi Farming: Stake LQTY for sBOLD/yBOLD yield on launch day (Thu 5/29 target).

5. Event‑Driven: Monitor Bitcoin 2025 Conference headlines Tue–Thu for COIN/MSTR sympathy.

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