Market Highlights & Key Events

1. 📉 Core PPI Falls in February

   • Core PPI came in at -0.1%, lower than expectations of 0.3%—only the second negative print since April 2020.

   • Headline PPI 0.0% MoM vs. expected 0.3%.

   • Inflation is cooling, but markets remain muted due to trade war fears.

2. 🔥 Crypto Market Frenzy

   • 🇷🇺 Russia’s Central Bank proposes a 3-year crypto trading pilot for high-net-worth investors.

   • 🇺🇸 Trump family rumored to be in talks to acquire a stake in Binance US.

   • 🇺🇸 Franklin Templeton files for an XRP Spot ETF.

   • 🇺🇸 Cboe pushes for in-kind redemptions for Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs.

   • 🚀 $719M USDC transferred to Coinbase—whale accumulation?

3. 📈 Stock Market Movers

   • Intel (INTC) +11% after appointing Lip-Bu Tan as CEO (former Cadence CEO).

   • IonQ (IONQ) +4% on growing quantum computing interest.

   • Tesla (TSLA) plans to double US production in 2 years.

   • SentinelOne (S) -13% and UiPath (PATH) -17% on weak earnings guidance.

4. 🌎 Global Trade War & Market Reaction

   • Tariff tensions escalate: Trump proposes 200% tariffs on EU alcohol if they don’t cancel their 50% whiskey tariffs.

   • European and Asian markets mixed, struggling with economic uncertainty.

   • Barclays now expects two Fed rate cuts in 2025 (June & September) as growth slows.

Market Recap & Trade Analysis – March 13, 2025

Key Market Developments & Themes

• Global Trade War Fears: Investors remain on edge as trade tensions rise. U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs led to retaliatory actions from Canada and the EU. Trump's vow to escalate countermeasures is further unsettling markets.

• US Government Funding Deadline: A potential government shutdown looms if a funding bill is not passed today, creating added uncertainty in the markets.

• Economic Data Releases:

  • PPI & Jobless Claims: Mixed data on producer prices and labor market trends suggest ongoing economic headwinds.

  • 30-Year Bond Auction: Yields fluctuating due to inflation concerns.

• Market Sentiment:

  • SPX struggling at 5550, stronger support at 5420.

  • VIX up moderately, indicating continued caution.

Pre-Market Highlights & Trading Strategies

Key Gainers & Losers

• Top Gainers:

  • Intel (INTC) +11% – New CEO announcement boosts sentiment.

  • D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) +11.86% – Strong bullish sentiment in quantum computing.

  • Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) +4.33% – Positive momentum in AI-driven tech stocks.

  • IonQ (IONQ) +4% – Increased institutional interest.

  • Baidu (BIDU) +2.2% – Reports of collaboration with Tesla on ADAS technologies.

• Top Losers:

  • UiPath (PATH) -17% – Weak guidance leads to heavy sell-off.

  • SentinelOne (S) -13% – Lower revenue forecast due to macroeconomic headwinds.

  • Adobe (ADBE) -3.7% – Revenue in-line but weak forward guidance.

Key Sectors & Market Outlook

Sector Performances & Outlook

1. Technology (XLK)

   • AI and Quantum Computing stocks saw mixed reactions. Strong Buy signals for INTC, QBTS, QUBT, and IONQ.

   • Watch Nvidia (NVDA) – Late-day algo buying suggests accumulation in September $148-$155 calls.

   • Avoid SentinelOne (S) & UiPath (PATH) – Weak guidance impacting sentiment.

2. Consumer Discretionary (XLY, XRT)

   • AEO Buyback ($50M) helps sentiment, but overall consumer spending looks weak.

   • Dollar General (DG) forecast lower growth, pointing to lower retail demand.

   • Sonos (SONO) canceling product launches signals weak demand outlook.

3. Energy & Materials (XLE, XLB)

   • Oil markets remain volatile, IEA revising global oil supply expectations.

   • Southern Copper (SCCO) upgraded to Buy by UBS, citing bullish copper price outlook.

4. Financials (XLF, KBE, KRE)

   • Bank stocks struggling with widening credit spreads; Wells Fargo (WFC) upgrade supports short-term bullish sentiment.

Crypto Market Sentiment & Trade Ideas

• Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $81,875, holding key support around $80K.

• Ethereum (ETH) hovering near $1,857, experiencing slight weakness.

• Crypto Sector Strength:

  • AI-related blockchain projects rallying.

  • Ethereum Layer-2 solutions gaining traction.

  • Watch for BTC break above $83K for upside targets to $85K.

• 👀 Wildcards:

  • Trump & Binance: Reports suggest the Trump family may acquire a stake in Binance US. Meanwhile, Binance’s founder CZ is allegedly seeking a pardon from Trump.

  • Regulatory Push: SEC acknowledges Fidelity & Franklin Spot ETH ETFs with staking.

  • DeFi Breakthrough: Giza Protocol’s AI-driven DeFi trading agents gaining traction.

Trade Ideas & Execution Plan

Stock Market Trade Setups

📈 Long Setups (Bullish Trades)

1. Intel (INTC)

   • Entry: Above $25.00

   • Stop Loss: Below $23.80

   • Target 1: $27.50

   • Target 2: $30.00

   • Catalyst: New CEO, bullish momentum.

2. Baidu (BIDU)

   • Entry: Above $97.00

   • Stop Loss: Below $94.50

   • Target 1: $102.00

   • Catalyst: Tesla partnership for ADAS tech.

3. Wells Fargo (WFC)

   • Entry: Above $75.00

   • Stop Loss: Below $72.50

   • Target 1: $78.00

   • Catalyst: RBC upgrade, strong institutional buying.

📉 Short Setups (Bearish Trades)

1. SentinelOne (S)

   • Entry: Below $17.50

   • Stop Loss: Above $18.50

   • Target 1: $15.00

   • Catalyst: Weak forward guidance.

2. UiPath (PATH)

   • Entry: Below $12.00

   • Stop Loss: Above $12.50

   • Target 1: $10.50

   • Catalyst: Disappointing earnings, lower AI spending.

Crypto Market Trade Setups

📈 Bullish Crypto Trades

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

   • Entry: Above $83K

   • Stop Loss: Below $80K

   • Target 1: $85K

   • Catalyst: Institutional accumulation.

2. Ethereum (ETH)

   • Entry: Above $1,900

   • Stop Loss: Below $1,850

   • Target 1: $2,050

   • Catalyst: Layer-2 growth, ETH staking momentum.

🔹 Keep Your Eyes On..

• 🔻 Possible Negative Sentiment:

  • More tariffs incoming? Trump’s aggressive trade stance could hurt markets.

  • Regulatory pressure on Binance & stablecoins.

  • Stock market choppiness despite cooling inflation.

• 🔺 Positive Catalysts:

  • Bitcoin ETF evolution – Cboe’s in-kind redemption proposal could be a game changer.

  • AI & Quantum stocks gaining traction.

  • Potential Fed rate cuts later in 2025 improving risk sentiment.

Final Thoughts & Things to Watch

1. Trade War Developments – Any escalation will negatively impact risk assets.

2. Government Funding Bill – A failure to pass could cause significant downside in equities.

3. Economic Data (CPI, Jobs, PPI) – Will determine Fed’s next move on rate cuts.

4. Earnings Reports (ADBE, ORCL, DOCU) – Tech sector sentiment hinges on guidance outlook.

5. Crypto Market Reaction – Watching for BTC break above $83K or potential drop below $80K.

🚨 Key Takeaway: Markets remain volatile, and selective stock picking is critical. Tech stocks show mixed sentiment, but AI & Quantum computing stocks look strong. Crypto sector holding key levels, bullish breakout possible in BTC & ETH.

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