Market Overview - March 12, 2025

• S&P 500 Futures (ES_F): Indicating a gap-up open (+0.3%), testing 5,627 resistance.

• Key Support Levels: 5,550-5,600 zone held overnight, signaling possible rebound.

• Key Resistance Levels: 5,728 - 5,765 Weekly POC.

• VIX (Volatility Index): Stable despite tariff tensions, indicating market resilience.

• Sentiment: Extreme fear dissipating; CPI data could be a catalyst for further movement.

Key Headlines & Trading Setups

1. RKLB (Rocket Lab) – M&A Catalyst & Space Expansion

• Catalyst: RKLB acquiring Mynaric ($75M deal), expanding into laser communications for space applications.

• Trade Setup:

  • Day Trade: Entry: $17.80 | Target: $19.50 | Stop Loss: $17.00

  • Swing Trade: Entry: $17.80 | Target: $22.00 | Stop Loss: $16.80

• Conviction Rating: 9.2/10

• Trade Type: Long Calls (March $20 Strike)

2. SMCI (Super Micro Computer) – Nuclear & AI Demand

• Catalyst: AMZN & GOOG pledge to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, boosting AI & data center infrastructure demand.

• Trade Setup:

  • Day Trade: Entry: $43.86 | Target: $48.00 | Stop Loss: $41.50

  • Swing Trade: Entry: $43.86 | Target: $52.00 | Stop Loss: $39.00

• Conviction Rating: 9.3/10

• Trade Type: Long Calls (March $45 Strike)

3. VRT (Vertiv Holdings) – AI Infrastructure Play

• Catalyst: AI data center boom; strong insider buying and bullish options flow.

• Trade Setup:

  • Day Trade: Entry: $82.00 | Target: $88.00 | Stop Loss: $79.50

  • Swing Trade: Entry: $82.00 | Target: $101.00 | Stop Loss: $76.00

• Conviction Rating: 9.4/10

• Trade Type: Long Calls (April $90 Strike)

4. TSLA (Tesla) – Strong Recovery from Lows

• Catalyst: TSLA up 26% from yesterday’s low, momentum & bullish option flow.

• Trade Setup:

  • Day Trade: Entry: $632 | Target: $660 | Stop Loss: $618

  • Swing Trade: Entry: $632 | Target: $700 | Stop Loss: $600

• Conviction Rating: 9.0/10

• Trade Type: Long Calls (March $650 Strike)

5. BE (Bloom Energy) – Breakout Above $25.50

• Catalyst: AI-driven data center fuel cell growth, institutional interest.

• Trade Setup:

  • Day Trade: Entry: $25.50 | Target: $28.50 | Stop Loss: $24.00

  • Swing Trade: Entry: $25.50 | Target: $30.00 | Stop Loss: $23.00

• Conviction Rating: 9.1/10

• Trade Type: Long Calls (June $20 Strike)

6. FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) – Copper Demand Boost

• Catalyst: US Commerce Secretary signals copper demand increase, potential long-term supply constraints.

• Trade Setup:

  • Day Trade: Entry: $39.20 | Target: $41.00 | Stop Loss: $38.50

  • Swing Trade: Entry: $39.20 | Target: $45.00 | Stop Loss: $36.80

• Conviction Rating: 9.1/10

• Trade Type: Long Calls (April $40 Strike)

7. CIEN (Ciena) – Raised to Outperform

• Catalyst: Northland upgrade to Outperform, reclaiming 200-day moving average.

• Trade Setup:

  • Day Trade: Entry: $51.00 | Target: $54.00 | Stop Loss: $49.50

  • Swing Trade: Entry: $51.00 | Target: $58.00 | Stop Loss: $47.50

• Conviction Rating: 8.9/10

• Trade Type: Long Calls (March $52 Strike)

8. GTES (Gates Industrial) – Insider Buying & Data Center Play

• Catalyst: Recent strong insider purchases, data center liquid cooling market entry.

• Trade Setup:

  • Day Trade: Entry: $19.50 | Target: $21.00 | Stop Loss: $18.80

  • Swing Trade: Entry: $19.50 | Target: $25.00 | Stop Loss: $18.00

• Conviction Rating: 9.0/10

• Trade Type: Long Calls (April $20 Strike)

Options Flow & Institutional Activity

• TSLA: 3,800 contracts of August $300/$450 call spreads at $17.07.

• NVDA: 4,000 deep ITM June 2026 $60 calls bought for $23M.

• VRT: Large July $110/$140 call spreads, buyers of $80 January 2027 calls.

• BE: 2,500 contracts of June $20 calls in OI, part of a bull risk reversal.

• RKLB: Institutional buying into M&A deal.

Key Economic Events & Earnings Watchlist

Economic Data:

• CPI Data (8:30 AM ET) – Expected MoM 0.3%, YoY 2.9% (cooler print = market rally).

• Crude Oil Inventories – Could impact energy stocks like XLE, XOM, CVX.

Earnings Today (After Close):

• ADBE (Adobe)

• AEO (American Eagle)

• PATH (UiPath)

• CCI (Crown Castle)

Trading Outlook for the Week

• Bullish Sectors: Tech (XLK), Health Tech (XLV), AI Infrastructure (VRT, SMCI, BE).

• Bearish Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Industrial Deleveraging (XLI).

• Market Rotation: Watch for potential OPEX-driven moves.

Final Thoughts

• Top Day Trades: TSLA, SMCI, RKLB, VRT.

• Top Swing Trades: BE, GTES, FCX, CIEN.

• Watch CPI: A cooler print could ignite a rally to S&P 5,728.

Market Overview: Pre-Market Analysis for March 12, 2025

Pre-Market Action:

• Indices: S&P 500 futures indicate a strong gap-up open (+0.3%), with S&P futures (ES_F) hitting 5,627 overnight, near yesterday’s afternoon high. Key support at 5,550-5,600 held, suggesting a rebound to 5,728.

Pre-Market Movers (DCG Pre-Market Scanner):

• RKLB: +5.85% to $17.80, driven by M&A news (acquiring Mynaric for $75M).

• OKLO: +7.77% to $12.83, nuclear energy demand from AMZN/GOOG pledge.

• SMCI: +7.39% to $43.86, continuing momentum from +10.7% on March 11.

• TEM: +5.70% to $45.50, acquisition of Deep 6 AI for clinical trials.

Order Flow and Sector Shifts:

• Dark pool activity for SMCI at $41.00-$41.50 (200k+ shares) supports bullish momentum.

• Large block trades in RKLB ($17.80) and TEM ($45.50) indicate institutional buying.

Catalysts:

• CPI Data (8:30 AM ET): Expected MoM 0.3%, YoY 2.9%. A cooler print could fuel a rally, while a hot print may pressure growth stocks.

• Earnings: ADBE, AEO, PATH after close – ADBE expected to beat (EPS $4.97, Revenue $5.66B).

• Nuclear Energy Demand: AMZN/GOOG pledge to triple nuclear capacity by 2050 boosts SMCI, OKLO, RKLB.

Stock Trading Opportunities with Positive Sentiment:

• SMCI: Nuclear demand and short squeeze potential (22.77% short interest) drive upside.

  • Trade Idea: Long Call, $45 strike, Mar 21, Entry $43.86, Target $50.00, Stop $41.49, Rating 9.3, Probability 93%.

• RKLB: M&A catalyst and nuclear energy focus.

  • Trade Idea: Long Call, $20 strike, Mar 21, Entry $17.80, Target $20.00, Stop $17.00, Rating 9.1, Probability 91%.

• TEM: Healthcare M&A and sector strength.

  • Trade Idea: Long Call, $50 strike, Mar 21, Entry $45.50, Target $50.00, Stop $43.00, Rating 9.0, Probability 90%.

Things to Watch Out For (Positive/Negative Sentiment):

• Positive: Cooler CPI data could fuel a rally in tech and growth stocks.

• Negative: Hot CPI print may trigger sell-off, impacting rate-sensitive sectors.

Moving Forward: Key Bullets

• Focus on Tech and Health Tech: SMCI, RKLB, TEM lead with strong pre-market momentum and catalysts.

• Monitor CPI Impact: A cooler print could push S&P 500 to 5,728; a hot print may test 5,550.

• Nuclear Energy Plays: Continue to benefit from AMZN/GOOG pledge – watch SMCI, OKLO, RKLB.

• Crypto Sentiment: BTC remains supported by institutional interest, but watch for profit-taking.

• Risk Management: Tight stops around key supports (e.g., SMCI $41.49, RKLB $17.00) due to tariff volatility.

DCG Trial Membership.