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- Stock Market Trends & AI Sentiment for March 17, 2025
Stock Market Trends & AI Sentiment for March 17, 2025
Weak Consumer Data and Manufacturing Slump Pressure Stocks; Defensive Sectors in Focus Amid Nvidia GTC Buzz
Stock Market Trends & AI Sentiment for March 17, 2025
Here’s a breakdown of today’s key stock market influences, AI sentiment, economic events, sector trends, and expected volatility:

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1. Market News Driving Today's Trends
CPI & Inflation: February’s CPI showed a 0.2% monthly increase (2.8% annualized) with core inflation easing to 3.1%. While this should be a positive sign, concerns over stagflation persist.
Tech Rally: Nvidia (+6%) and Tesla (+7.5%) led a mid-week tech rally. Nvidia’s GTC event tomorrow (March 18) is expected to generate market-moving headlines.
Earnings Season Impact: Key earnings from NIO, XPeng, Micron (MU), Nike (NKE), and FedEx (FDX) will provide insights into the EV, semiconductor, and consumer sectors.
Geopolitical Tensions: Russia has agreed to U.S. ceasefire proposals, but uncertainty remains.
2. AI Sentiment for Today’s Market
Nvidia GTC Conference as a Major AI Catalyst: Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to announce updates on its Blackwell Ultra and Rubin AI chip developments, China exposure, and competition from Broadcom and Marvell.
Quantum Stocks Surging: D-Wave Quantum (+112%), Quantum Computing (+46%), IONQ (+25%), and Rigetti Computing (+24.4%) saw major gains amid AI and quantum developments.
AI-Related Stocks Under Pressure: Despite AI optimism, Nvidia stock is down from recent highs, with some analysts concerned about overvaluation ahead of its GTC announcements.
3. Economic Events to Watch This Week
Monday (March 18): U.S. Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing, Business Inventories, and Nvidia GTC Kickoff.
Wednesday (March 20): FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference—This is the most crucial event, as markets await clues on potential rate cuts.
Thursday (March 21): Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing, and UK BoE Rate Statement.
4. Sectors & Stocks Showing Strong Trends
Tech: Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) are strong movers. CrowdStrike (CRWD) has a bull flag breakout setup, with calls over $356 and a Prime Target at $400.
EV & China Stocks: NIO, XPeng (XPEV), and Li Auto are key earnings reports this week.
Semiconductors: Micron (MU) earnings will provide insights into the AI chip space.
Consumer & Retail: Nike (NKE) and Carnival Corp (CCL) earnings will offer insights into spending trends.
5. Expected Volatility for Today
VIX & Gamma Positioning: The VIX has declined, suggesting a potential bottoming in markets.
Key SPX Levels: The S&P 500 held the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 5500 and has gamma support at this level. A rebound to 5700 or 5800 is possible if sentiment improves.
High-Volatility Stocks Today: Tesla (TSLA) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) have high implied volatility, while Microvision (MVIS) has a high short interest.
Conclusion
Bullish Outlook: If Nvidia’s GTC event and Fed guidance are positive, tech and AI stocks could rally.
Bearish Risks: Stagflation fears, trade war concerns, and FOMC hawkishness could keep pressure on markets.
Key Stocks to Watch: NVDA, TSLA, CRWD, NKE, XPEV, MU, and FDX.
DAILY TRADING PLAN
Daily Trading Plan: Monday, March 17, 2025
Market Context
Key Focus: Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET has set the tone, coming in at +0.2% (below the forecast of +0.7%), signaling weaker consumer spending. This miss is likely to pressure consumer sectors, while Empire State Manufacturing Index at -20 (worse than the forecast of -8.0) reinforces recession concerns, impacting industrial sectors negatively.
Economic Events & Data Releases (Chronological Order)
8:30 AM ET - Retail Sales (February)
Actual: +0.2% (Forecast: +0.7%, Previous: -0.9%)
Impact: HIGH - Critical indicator of consumer health amid recession concerns.
Market Implications:
The weaker-than-expected data (+0.2% vs. +0.7% forecast) is pressuring consumer discretionary stocks, reinforcing recession fears. Defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples are likely to see inflows.
Stocks to Watch: WMT, TGT, COST (defensive retail), JWN, M, KSS (discretionary retail under pressure), XRT, XLY (ETFs showing weakness).
8:30 AM ET - Empire State Manufacturing Index
Actual: -20.0 (Forecast: -8.0, Previous: 5.7)
Impact: MEDIUM - Regional manufacturing indicator.
Market Implications:
A significant drop to -20 (worst since Jan 2024) signals deeper manufacturing weakness, adding to recession concerns. Industrial sectors are likely to face selling pressure.
Stocks to Watch: Industrial sector (XLI), regional manufacturers (e.g., CAT, DE) likely to underperform.
10:00 AM ET - Business Inventories
Forecast: 0.2% (Previous: 0.4%)
Impact: LOW - Lagging indicator.
Market Implications:
Rising inventories could signal slowing demand, especially in retail. Await actual data for confirmation.
Stocks to Watch: Retail and wholesale distributors (e.g., WSM, RH).
10:00 AM ET - NAHB Housing Market Index
Forecast: 48 (Previous: 48; Recent Update: 42 in Feb per TradingEconomics)
Impact: MEDIUM - Sentiment indicator for homebuilders.
Market Implications:
A decline to 42 in February (per TradingEconomics) suggests continued housing market weakness. If today’s data confirms this trend, homebuilder stocks may face further pressure.
Stocks to Watch: LEN, DHI, TOL, PHM, ITB, XHB (likely to remain under pressure).
11:00 AM ET - Treasury Buyback Announcement
Impact: LOW to MEDIUM - Could affect Treasury yields.
Market Implications:
A significant buyback could support bond prices, lowering yields and benefiting rate-sensitive sectors like utilities. Monitor for impact.
Stocks to Watch: XLU, TLT (bond ETF).
11:30 AM ET - 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction
Impact: LOW - Regular Treasury operation.
Market Implications:
Watch for signs of stress in short-term funding markets. No significant impact expected unless yields spike unexpectedly.
Stocks to Watch: Financial sector (e.g., JPM, GS) if yields move significantly.
4:30 PM ET - API Crude Oil Report
Previous: 5.521M barrel build.
Impact: MEDIUM - Preliminary oil inventory data.
Market Implications:
A build in inventories would be bearish for oil prices; a draw would be bullish. Monitor for energy sector impact.
Stocks to Watch: XLE, XOP, OIH, CVX, XOM.
International Data & Events
China Retail Sales and Industrial Production
Retail Sales Actual: Not yet released (Forecast: 5.2% YoY).
Industrial Production Actual: Not yet released (Forecast: 5.0% YoY).
Impact: MEDIUM - Insight into the world’s second-largest economy.
Market Implications:
Weak U.S. retail sales data may foreshadow softer Chinese data, potentially pressuring global cyclicals and commodities. Strong data could provide a lift to China-exposed stocks.
Stocks to Watch: BABA, JD, PDD, FXI, MCHI (China ETFs likely to be volatile).
Earnings Releases
Before Market Open
SAIC (Science Applications International Corp.)
Expected EPS: $1.73
Expected Revenue: $1.82B
Focus: Government IT services contract momentum.
Options Implied Move: ±4.2%
Update: No post-earnings data available yet. Monitor for government IT sector impact.
Stocks to Watch: CACI, LDOS, BAH (government IT services).
After Market Close
Getty Images (GETY)
Expected EPS: $0.05
Expected Revenue: $235.8M
Focus: Digital content licensing trends, AI impact.
Options Implied Move: ±8.3%
Stocks to Watch: SSTK, ADBE (digital content).
La-Z-Boy (LZB)
Expected EPS: $0.68
Expected Revenue: $508M
Focus: Furniture demand, consumer discretionary spending.
Options Implied Move: ±7.5%
Update: Weak retail sales data may pressure LZB due to discretionary spending concerns.
Stocks to Watch: ETH, WSM, RH (home furnishings).
Other Notable Earnings Reports
Niu Technologies (NIU) - After Close
Focus: Electric scooter demand in China and international markets.
Options Implied Move: Double-digit share price swing expected.
FibroGen (FGEN) - After Close
Focus: Pipeline developments and clinical trial updates.
Options Implied Move: Double-digit share price swing expected.
Conferences & Events
NVIDIA GPU Technology Conference (GTC) - Day 1
Companies Participating: NVDA, CRDO, SOUN, WULF, BITF.
Impact: HIGH - Major AI industry event.
Key Focus: Preliminary announcements ahead of Tuesday’s keynote.
Market Implications:
Early announcements could drive AI-related stocks. SOUN (on the watchlist) has a +16.05% pre-market gap, indicating potential momentum.
Stocks to Watch: NVDA, AMD, MRVL, AVGO, QCOM, AI, PLTR, SOUN (watchlist).
Oppenheimer 35th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference
Companies Presenting: RadNet (RDNT), AngioDynamics (ANGO), Butterfly Network (BFLY).
Impact: MEDIUM - Sector-specific catalysts.
Market Implications:
Healthcare sector remains a defensive play amid market uncertainty. Monitor for company-specific catalysts.
Stocks to Watch: RDNT, ANGO, BFLY.
Piper Energy Conference
Companies Presenting: Phillips 66 (PSX), Oceaneering International (OII), Helix Energy (HLX).
Impact: MEDIUM - Sector-specific catalysts.
Market Implications:
Energy sector outlook remains critical with oil price volatility. Monitor for capital allocation updates.
Stocks to Watch: PSX, OII, HLX, XLE.
Roth Conference
Notable Participants: D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), TeraWulf (WULF), Hut 8 (HUT).
Impact: MEDIUM - Growth company showcase.
Market Implications:
QBTS (on the watchlist) has a -14.78% pre-market gap, indicating potential volatility. Crypto-related stocks (WULF, HUT) may be influenced by recent $6.4B outflows in the crypto market (trending on X).
Stocks to Watch: QBTS, WULF, HUT.
1:30 PM ET - Amdocs (DOX) Investor Webinar
Hosted by J.P. Morgan: "MWC25: The Barcelona Express - The Future of Ubiquitous Connectivity, AI and Everything in Between."
Impact: LOW to MEDIUM - Company-specific.
Market Implications:
Insights into telecom and connectivity trends could influence related stocks.
Stocks to Watch: DOX, CSCO, ERIC, NOK.
Trading Strategy
Pre-Market Preparation (7:00-9:00 AM ET)
Assessment: S&P 500 futures opened lower (DJIA -0.43%, S&P 500 -0.54%), aligning with cautious sentiment. China data is pending, but U.S. retail sales miss has set a bearish tone. Treasury yields are likely softening, supporting safe-haven flows.
Action: Prepared for a defensive stance given the weak retail sales data and manufacturing index. Identified key retail and defensive stocks to watch.
Morning Session (9:30 AM - 12:00 PM ET)
Retail Sales Missed Expectations:
Sector Focus: Defensive sectors - Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP).
Trade Setup 1: Long Defensive ETFs
Entry: XLU at $78.50 (post-open confirmation of bearish market reaction).
Target: $80.00 (+1.91%; aiming for recent highs).
Stop: $77.50 (-1.27%; below pre-market low).
Position Size: 3% of portfolio.
Trade Setup 2: Short Consumer Discretionary Stocks
Candidates: JWN, M (oversold but facing pressure).
Entry: JWN at $16.50 (post-open confirmation of downtrend).
Target: $15.50 (-6.06%).
Stop: $17.00 (+3.03%; above morning high).
Position Size: 1.5% per position.
Trade Setup 3: Long TLT (Treasury Bond ETF)
Entry: TLT at $94.00 (yields dropping post-data).
Target: $95.50 (+1.60%).
Stop: $93.00 (-1.06%).
Position Size: 2% of portfolio.
Midday Reassessment (12:00 PM - 1:00 PM ET)
Evaluate Market Breadth:
Advance/Decline ratio likely negative given the bearish open.
Sector performance: Defensive sectors (XLU, XLP) outperforming; consumer discretionary (XLY) and industrials (XLI) lagging.
Volume patterns: High selling volume in retail and industrials.
Adjust Positioning:
Take partial profits on XLU if up +1%.
Cut losses on JWN if stop is hit.
Monitor for conference-related catalysts (Oppenheimer, Piper).
Monitor Conference Presentations:
Healthcare: Watch RDNT, ANGO, BFLY for potential defensive plays.
Energy: Monitor PSX, OII, HLX for relative strength.
Afternoon Session (1:00 PM - 4:00 PM ET)
Position for Tuesday’s Catalysts:
Nvidia GTC Keynote (Tuesday): Consider initiating a position in SOUN (watchlist) given its +16.05% pre-market gap and GTC participation.
Housing Starts Data (Tuesday): Monitor homebuilders (LEN, DHI) for potential short setups if NAHB data confirms weakness.
Specific Afternoon Opportunities:
SoundHound AI (SOUN):
Entry: $10.34 (current price on watchlist).
Target: $11.00 (+6.38%).
Stop: $9.80 (-5.22%).
Position Size: 1.5% of portfolio.
Rationale: AI sector momentum and GTC participation.
Energy Stocks: Watch PSX, OII, HLX for continuation of relative strength.
Healthcare Stocks: Monitor RDNT, ANGO, BFLY for defensive characteristics.
End of Day Positioning (3:30 PM - 4:00 PM ET):
Reduce size of positions given elevated volatility.
Set alerts for after-hours earnings (GETY, LZB).
After Hours (4:00 PM - 6:00 PM ET)
Monitor Earnings Reactions:
GETY and LZB reports; assess implications for digital content and furniture sectors.
Review API Crude Oil Report (4:30 PM ET):
Adjust energy positions based on inventory data.
Prepare for Tuesday’s Pre-Market Data:
Housing Starts and Building Permits (8:30 AM ET).
Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET).
Risk Management
Position Sizing: Reduced by 40% due to elevated volatility (VIX high).
Defined Risk: Using spreads for options (e.g., XLU call spread).
Stop Losses: Strict stops implemented (e.g., XLU stop at $77.50).
Sector Exposure: Avoid overexposure to consumer discretionary and industrials.
Profit-Taking: Take partial profits on XLU if up +1%.
Key Stocks to Watch
Volatility Plays
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): -14.78% pre-market gap; high volatility with Roth Conference presentation.
Sector Leaders
Energy: XLE, CVX, PSX, OII, HLX (relative strength).
Defensive: XLU, XLP, WMT, TGT, COST (safe-haven plays).
Homebuilders: LEN, DHI, TOL, PHM (bearish bias).

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