Stock Market Trends & AI Sentiment for March 17, 2025

Stock Market Trends & AI Sentiment for March 17, 2025

Here’s a breakdown of today’s key stock market influences, AI sentiment, economic events, sector trends, and expected volatility:

1. Market News Driving Today's Trends

• CPI & Inflation: February’s CPI showed a 0.2% monthly increase (2.8% annualized) with core inflation easing to 3.1%. While this should be a positive sign, concerns over stagflation persist​.

• Tech Rally: Nvidia (+6%) and Tesla (+7.5%) led a mid-week tech rally. Nvidia’s GTC event tomorrow (March 18) is expected to generate market-moving headlines​​.

• Earnings Season Impact: Key earnings from NIO, XPeng, Micron (MU), Nike (NKE), and FedEx (FDX) will provide insights into the EV, semiconductor, and consumer sectors​.

• Geopolitical Tensions: Russia has agreed to U.S. ceasefire proposals, but uncertainty remains​.

2. AI Sentiment for Today’s Market

• Nvidia GTC Conference as a Major AI Catalyst: Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to announce updates on its Blackwell Ultra and Rubin AI chip developments, China exposure, and competition from Broadcom and Marvell​.

• Quantum Stocks Surging: D-Wave Quantum (+112%), Quantum Computing (+46%), IONQ (+25%), and Rigetti Computing (+24.4%) saw major gains amid AI and quantum developments​.

• AI-Related Stocks Under Pressure: Despite AI optimism, Nvidia stock is down from recent highs, with some analysts concerned about overvaluation ahead of its GTC announcements​.

3. Economic Events to Watch This Week

• Monday (March 18): U.S. Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing, Business Inventories, and Nvidia GTC Kickoff​.

• Wednesday (March 20): FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference—This is the most crucial event, as markets await clues on potential rate cuts​.

• Thursday (March 21): Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing, and UK BoE Rate Statement​.

4. Sectors & Stocks Showing Strong Trends

• Tech: Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) are strong movers. CrowdStrike (CRWD) has a bull flag breakout setup, with calls over $356 and a Prime Target at $400​.

• EV & China Stocks: NIO, XPeng (XPEV), and Li Auto are key earnings reports this week​.

• Semiconductors: Micron (MU) earnings will provide insights into the AI chip space​.

• Consumer & Retail: Nike (NKE) and Carnival Corp (CCL) earnings will offer insights into spending trends​.

5. Expected Volatility for Today

• VIX & Gamma Positioning: The VIX has declined, suggesting a potential bottoming in markets​.

• Key SPX Levels: The S&P 500 held the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 5500 and has gamma support at this level. A rebound to 5700 or 5800 is possible if sentiment improves​.

• High-Volatility Stocks Today: Tesla (TSLA) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) have high implied volatility, while Microvision (MVIS) has a high short interest​.

Conclusion

• Bullish Outlook: If Nvidia’s GTC event and Fed guidance are positive, tech and AI stocks could rally.

• Bearish Risks: Stagflation fears, trade war concerns, and FOMC hawkishness could keep pressure on markets.

• Key Stocks to Watch: NVDA, TSLA, CRWD, NKE, XPEV, MU, and FDX.

DAILY TRADING PLAN
Daily Trading Plan: Monday, March 17, 2025

Market Context

• Key Focus: Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET has set the tone, coming in at +0.2% (below the forecast of +0.7%), signaling weaker consumer spending. This miss is likely to pressure consumer sectors, while Empire State Manufacturing Index at -20 (worse than the forecast of -8.0) reinforces recession concerns, impacting industrial sectors negatively.

Economic Events & Data Releases (Chronological Order)

8:30 AM ET - Retail Sales (February)

• Actual: +0.2% (Forecast: +0.7%, Previous: -0.9%)

• Impact: HIGH - Critical indicator of consumer health amid recession concerns.

• Market Implications:

  • The weaker-than-expected data (+0.2% vs. +0.7% forecast) is pressuring consumer discretionary stocks, reinforcing recession fears. Defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples are likely to see inflows.

  • Stocks to Watch: WMT, TGT, COST (defensive retail), JWN, M, KSS (discretionary retail under pressure), XRT, XLY (ETFs showing weakness).

8:30 AM ET - Empire State Manufacturing Index

• Actual: -20.0 (Forecast: -8.0, Previous: 5.7)

• Impact: MEDIUM - Regional manufacturing indicator.

• Market Implications:

  • A significant drop to -20 (worst since Jan 2024) signals deeper manufacturing weakness, adding to recession concerns. Industrial sectors are likely to face selling pressure.

  • Stocks to Watch: Industrial sector (XLI), regional manufacturers (e.g., CAT, DE) likely to underperform.

10:00 AM ET - Business Inventories

• Forecast: 0.2% (Previous: 0.4%)

• Impact: LOW - Lagging indicator.

• Market Implications:

  • Rising inventories could signal slowing demand, especially in retail. Await actual data for confirmation.

  • Stocks to Watch: Retail and wholesale distributors (e.g., WSM, RH).

10:00 AM ET - NAHB Housing Market Index

• Forecast: 48 (Previous: 48; Recent Update: 42 in Feb per TradingEconomics)

• Impact: MEDIUM - Sentiment indicator for homebuilders.

• Market Implications:

  • A decline to 42 in February (per TradingEconomics) suggests continued housing market weakness. If today’s data confirms this trend, homebuilder stocks may face further pressure.

  • Stocks to Watch: LEN, DHI, TOL, PHM, ITB, XHB (likely to remain under pressure).

11:00 AM ET - Treasury Buyback Announcement

• Impact: LOW to MEDIUM - Could affect Treasury yields.

• Market Implications:

  • A significant buyback could support bond prices, lowering yields and benefiting rate-sensitive sectors like utilities. Monitor for impact.

  • Stocks to Watch: XLU, TLT (bond ETF).

11:30 AM ET - 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction

• Impact: LOW - Regular Treasury operation.

• Market Implications:

  • Watch for signs of stress in short-term funding markets. No significant impact expected unless yields spike unexpectedly.

  • Stocks to Watch: Financial sector (e.g., JPM, GS) if yields move significantly.

4:30 PM ET - API Crude Oil Report

• Previous: 5.521M barrel build.

• Impact: MEDIUM - Preliminary oil inventory data.

• Market Implications:

  • A build in inventories would be bearish for oil prices; a draw would be bullish. Monitor for energy sector impact.

  • Stocks to Watch: XLE, XOP, OIH, CVX, XOM.

International Data & Events

China Retail Sales and Industrial Production

• Retail Sales Actual: Not yet released (Forecast: 5.2% YoY).

• Industrial Production Actual: Not yet released (Forecast: 5.0% YoY).

• Impact: MEDIUM - Insight into the world’s second-largest economy.

• Market Implications:

  • Weak U.S. retail sales data may foreshadow softer Chinese data, potentially pressuring global cyclicals and commodities. Strong data could provide a lift to China-exposed stocks.

  • Stocks to Watch: BABA, JD, PDD, FXI, MCHI (China ETFs likely to be volatile).

Earnings Releases

Before Market Open

• SAIC (Science Applications International Corp.)

  • Expected EPS: $1.73

  • Expected Revenue: $1.82B

  • Focus: Government IT services contract momentum.

  • Options Implied Move: ±4.2%

  • Update: No post-earnings data available yet. Monitor for government IT sector impact.

  • Stocks to Watch: CACI, LDOS, BAH (government IT services).

After Market Close

• Getty Images (GETY)

  • Expected EPS: $0.05

  • Expected Revenue: $235.8M

  • Focus: Digital content licensing trends, AI impact.

  • Options Implied Move: ±8.3%

  • Stocks to Watch: SSTK, ADBE (digital content).

• La-Z-Boy (LZB)

  • Expected EPS: $0.68

  • Expected Revenue: $508M

  • Focus: Furniture demand, consumer discretionary spending.

  • Options Implied Move: ±7.5%

  • Update: Weak retail sales data may pressure LZB due to discretionary spending concerns.

  • Stocks to Watch: ETH, WSM, RH (home furnishings).

Other Notable Earnings Reports

• Niu Technologies (NIU) - After Close

  • Focus: Electric scooter demand in China and international markets.

  • Options Implied Move: Double-digit share price swing expected.

• FibroGen (FGEN) - After Close

  • Focus: Pipeline developments and clinical trial updates.

  • Options Implied Move: Double-digit share price swing expected.

Conferences & Events

NVIDIA GPU Technology Conference (GTC) - Day 1

• Companies Participating: NVDA, CRDO, SOUN, WULF, BITF.

• Impact: HIGH - Major AI industry event.

• Key Focus: Preliminary announcements ahead of Tuesday’s keynote.

• Market Implications:

  • Early announcements could drive AI-related stocks. SOUN (on the watchlist) has a +16.05% pre-market gap, indicating potential momentum.

  • Stocks to Watch: NVDA, AMD, MRVL, AVGO, QCOM, AI, PLTR, SOUN (watchlist).

Oppenheimer 35th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference

• Companies Presenting: RadNet (RDNT), AngioDynamics (ANGO), Butterfly Network (BFLY).

• Impact: MEDIUM - Sector-specific catalysts.

• Market Implications:

  • Healthcare sector remains a defensive play amid market uncertainty. Monitor for company-specific catalysts.

  • Stocks to Watch: RDNT, ANGO, BFLY.

Piper Energy Conference

• Companies Presenting: Phillips 66 (PSX), Oceaneering International (OII), Helix Energy (HLX).

• Impact: MEDIUM - Sector-specific catalysts.

• Market Implications:

  • Energy sector outlook remains critical with oil price volatility. Monitor for capital allocation updates.

  • Stocks to Watch: PSX, OII, HLX, XLE.

Roth Conference

• Notable Participants: D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), TeraWulf (WULF), Hut 8 (HUT).

• Impact: MEDIUM - Growth company showcase.

• Market Implications:

  • QBTS (on the watchlist) has a -14.78% pre-market gap, indicating potential volatility. Crypto-related stocks (WULF, HUT) may be influenced by recent $6.4B outflows in the crypto market (trending on X).

  • Stocks to Watch: QBTS, WULF, HUT.

1:30 PM ET - Amdocs (DOX) Investor Webinar

• Hosted by J.P. Morgan: "MWC25: The Barcelona Express - The Future of Ubiquitous Connectivity, AI and Everything in Between."

• Impact: LOW to MEDIUM - Company-specific.

• Market Implications:

  • Insights into telecom and connectivity trends could influence related stocks.

  • Stocks to Watch: DOX, CSCO, ERIC, NOK.

Trading Strategy

Pre-Market Preparation (7:00-9:00 AM ET)

• Assessment: S&P 500 futures opened lower (DJIA -0.43%, S&P 500 -0.54%), aligning with cautious sentiment. China data is pending, but U.S. retail sales miss has set a bearish tone. Treasury yields are likely softening, supporting safe-haven flows.

• Action: Prepared for a defensive stance given the weak retail sales data and manufacturing index. Identified key retail and defensive stocks to watch.

Morning Session (9:30 AM - 12:00 PM ET)
 Retail Sales Missed Expectations:

• Sector Focus: Defensive sectors - Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP).

• Trade Setup 1: Long Defensive ETFs

  • Entry: XLU at $78.50 (post-open confirmation of bearish market reaction).

  • Target: $80.00 (+1.91%; aiming for recent highs).

  • Stop: $77.50 (-1.27%; below pre-market low).

  • Position Size: 3% of portfolio.

• Trade Setup 2: Short Consumer Discretionary Stocks

  • Candidates: JWN, M (oversold but facing pressure).

  • Entry: JWN at $16.50 (post-open confirmation of downtrend).

  • Target: $15.50 (-6.06%).

  • Stop: $17.00 (+3.03%; above morning high).

  • Position Size: 1.5% per position.

• Trade Setup 3: Long TLT (Treasury Bond ETF)

  • Entry: TLT at $94.00 (yields dropping post-data).

  • Target: $95.50 (+1.60%).

  • Stop: $93.00 (-1.06%).

  • Position Size: 2% of portfolio.

Midday Reassessment (12:00 PM - 1:00 PM ET)

1. Evaluate Market Breadth:

   • Advance/Decline ratio likely negative given the bearish open.

   • Sector performance: Defensive sectors (XLU, XLP) outperforming; consumer discretionary (XLY) and industrials (XLI) lagging.

   • Volume patterns: High selling volume in retail and industrials.

2. Adjust Positioning:

   • Take partial profits on XLU if up +1%.

   • Cut losses on JWN if stop is hit.

   • Monitor for conference-related catalysts (Oppenheimer, Piper).

3. Monitor Conference Presentations:

   • Healthcare: Watch RDNT, ANGO, BFLY for potential defensive plays.

   • Energy: Monitor PSX, OII, HLX for relative strength.

Afternoon Session (1:00 PM - 4:00 PM ET)

1. Position for Tuesday’s Catalysts:

   • Nvidia GTC Keynote (Tuesday): Consider initiating a position in SOUN (watchlist) given its +16.05% pre-market gap and GTC participation.

   • Housing Starts Data (Tuesday): Monitor homebuilders (LEN, DHI) for potential short setups if NAHB data confirms weakness.

2. Specific Afternoon Opportunities:

   • SoundHound AI (SOUN):

     • Entry: $10.34 (current price on watchlist).

     • Target: $11.00 (+6.38%).

     • Stop: $9.80 (-5.22%).

     • Position Size: 1.5% of portfolio.

     • Rationale: AI sector momentum and GTC participation.

   • Energy Stocks: Watch PSX, OII, HLX for continuation of relative strength.

   • Healthcare Stocks: Monitor RDNT, ANGO, BFLY for defensive characteristics.

3. End of Day Positioning (3:30 PM - 4:00 PM ET):

   • Reduce size of positions given elevated volatility.

   • Set alerts for after-hours earnings (GETY, LZB).

After Hours (4:00 PM - 6:00 PM ET)

1. Monitor Earnings Reactions:

   • GETY and LZB reports; assess implications for digital content and furniture sectors.

2. Review API Crude Oil Report (4:30 PM ET):

   • Adjust energy positions based on inventory data.

3. Prepare for Tuesday’s Pre-Market Data:

   • Housing Starts and Building Permits (8:30 AM ET).

   • Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET).

Risk Management

• Position Sizing: Reduced by 40% due to elevated volatility (VIX high).

• Defined Risk: Using spreads for options (e.g., XLU call spread).

• Stop Losses: Strict stops implemented (e.g., XLU stop at $77.50).

• Sector Exposure: Avoid overexposure to consumer discretionary and industrials.

• Profit-Taking: Take partial profits on XLU if up +1%.

Key Stocks to Watch

Volatility Plays

• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): -14.78% pre-market gap; high volatility with Roth Conference presentation.

Sector Leaders

• Energy: XLE, CVX, PSX, OII, HLX (relative strength).

• Defensive: XLU, XLP, WMT, TGT, COST (safe-haven plays).

• Homebuilders: LEN, DHI, TOL, PHM (bearish bias).

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