Stock Market Trends & AI Sentiment for March 17, 2025

Weak Consumer Data and Manufacturing Slump Pressure Stocks; Defensive Sectors in Focus Amid Nvidia GTC Buzz

Here’s a breakdown of today’s key stock market influences, AI sentiment, economic events, sector trends, and expected volatility:

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  • CPI & Inflation: February’s CPI showed a 0.2% monthly increase (2.8% annualized) with core inflation easing to 3.1%. While this should be a positive sign, concerns over stagflation persist​.

  • Tech Rally: Nvidia (+6%) and Tesla (+7.5%) led a mid-week tech rally. Nvidia’s GTC event tomorrow (March 18) is expected to generate market-moving headlines​​.

  • Earnings Season Impact: Key earnings from NIO, XPeng, Micron (MU), Nike (NKE), and FedEx (FDX) will provide insights into the EV, semiconductor, and consumer sectors​.

  • Geopolitical Tensions: Russia has agreed to U.S. ceasefire proposals, but uncertainty remains​.

2. AI Sentiment for Today’s Market

  • Nvidia GTC Conference as a Major AI Catalyst: Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to announce updates on its Blackwell Ultra and Rubin AI chip developments, China exposure, and competition from Broadcom and Marvell​.

  • Quantum Stocks Surging: D-Wave Quantum (+112%), Quantum Computing (+46%), IONQ (+25%), and Rigetti Computing (+24.4%) saw major gains amid AI and quantum developments​.

  • AI-Related Stocks Under Pressure: Despite AI optimism, Nvidia stock is down from recent highs, with some analysts concerned about overvaluation ahead of its GTC announcements​.

3. Economic Events to Watch This Week

  • Monday (March 18): U.S. Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing, Business Inventories, and Nvidia GTC Kickoff​.

  • Wednesday (March 20): FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference—This is the most crucial event, as markets await clues on potential rate cuts​.

  • Thursday (March 21): Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing, and UK BoE Rate Statement​.

4. Sectors & Stocks Showing Strong Trends

  • Tech: Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) are strong movers. CrowdStrike (CRWD) has a bull flag breakout setup, with calls over $356 and a Prime Target at $400​.

  • EV & China Stocks: NIO, XPeng (XPEV), and Li Auto are key earnings reports this week​.

  • Semiconductors: Micron (MU) earnings will provide insights into the AI chip space​.

  • Consumer & Retail: Nike (NKE) and Carnival Corp (CCL) earnings will offer insights into spending trends​.

5. Expected Volatility for Today

  • VIX & Gamma Positioning: The VIX has declined, suggesting a potential bottoming in markets​.

  • Key SPX Levels: The S&P 500 held the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 5500 and has gamma support at this level. A rebound to 5700 or 5800 is possible if sentiment improves​.

  • High-Volatility Stocks Today: Tesla (TSLA) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) have high implied volatility, while Microvision (MVIS) has a high short interest​.

Conclusion

  • Bullish Outlook: If Nvidia’s GTC event and Fed guidance are positive, tech and AI stocks could rally.

  • Bearish Risks: Stagflation fears, trade war concerns, and FOMC hawkishness could keep pressure on markets.

  • Key Stocks to Watch: NVDA, TSLA, CRWD, NKE, XPEV, MU, and FDX.

DAILY TRADING PLAN
Daily Trading Plan: Monday, March 17, 2025

Market Context

  • Key Focus: Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET has set the tone, coming in at +0.2% (below the forecast of +0.7%), signaling weaker consumer spending. This miss is likely to pressure consumer sectors, while Empire State Manufacturing Index at -20 (worse than the forecast of -8.0) reinforces recession concerns, impacting industrial sectors negatively.

Economic Events & Data Releases (Chronological Order)

8:30 AM ET - Retail Sales (February)

  • Actual: +0.2% (Forecast: +0.7%, Previous: -0.9%)

  • Impact: HIGH - Critical indicator of consumer health amid recession concerns.

  • Market Implications:

    • The weaker-than-expected data (+0.2% vs. +0.7% forecast) is pressuring consumer discretionary stocks, reinforcing recession fears. Defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples are likely to see inflows.

    • Stocks to Watch: WMT, TGT, COST (defensive retail), JWN, M, KSS (discretionary retail under pressure), XRT, XLY (ETFs showing weakness).

8:30 AM ET - Empire State Manufacturing Index

  • Actual: -20.0 (Forecast: -8.0, Previous: 5.7)

  • Impact: MEDIUM - Regional manufacturing indicator.

  • Market Implications:

    • A significant drop to -20 (worst since Jan 2024) signals deeper manufacturing weakness, adding to recession concerns. Industrial sectors are likely to face selling pressure.

    • Stocks to Watch: Industrial sector (XLI), regional manufacturers (e.g., CAT, DE) likely to underperform.

10:00 AM ET - Business Inventories

  • Forecast: 0.2% (Previous: 0.4%)

  • Impact: LOW - Lagging indicator.

  • Market Implications:

    • Rising inventories could signal slowing demand, especially in retail. Await actual data for confirmation.

    • Stocks to Watch: Retail and wholesale distributors (e.g., WSM, RH).

10:00 AM ET - NAHB Housing Market Index

  • Forecast: 48 (Previous: 48; Recent Update: 42 in Feb per TradingEconomics)

  • Impact: MEDIUM - Sentiment indicator for homebuilders.

  • Market Implications:

    • A decline to 42 in February (per TradingEconomics) suggests continued housing market weakness. If today’s data confirms this trend, homebuilder stocks may face further pressure.

    • Stocks to Watch: LEN, DHI, TOL, PHM, ITB, XHB (likely to remain under pressure).

11:00 AM ET - Treasury Buyback Announcement

  • Impact: LOW to MEDIUM - Could affect Treasury yields.

  • Market Implications:

    • A significant buyback could support bond prices, lowering yields and benefiting rate-sensitive sectors like utilities. Monitor for impact.

    • Stocks to Watch: XLU, TLT (bond ETF).

11:30 AM ET - 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction

  • Impact: LOW - Regular Treasury operation.

  • Market Implications:

    • Watch for signs of stress in short-term funding markets. No significant impact expected unless yields spike unexpectedly.

    • Stocks to Watch: Financial sector (e.g., JPM, GS) if yields move significantly.

4:30 PM ET - API Crude Oil Report

  • Previous: 5.521M barrel build.

  • Impact: MEDIUM - Preliminary oil inventory data.

  • Market Implications:

    • A build in inventories would be bearish for oil prices; a draw would be bullish. Monitor for energy sector impact.

    • Stocks to Watch: XLE, XOP, OIH, CVX, XOM.

International Data & Events

China Retail Sales and Industrial Production

  • Retail Sales Actual: Not yet released (Forecast: 5.2% YoY).

  • Industrial Production Actual: Not yet released (Forecast: 5.0% YoY).

  • Impact: MEDIUM - Insight into the world’s second-largest economy.

  • Market Implications:

    • Weak U.S. retail sales data may foreshadow softer Chinese data, potentially pressuring global cyclicals and commodities. Strong data could provide a lift to China-exposed stocks.

    • Stocks to Watch: BABA, JD, PDD, FXI, MCHI (China ETFs likely to be volatile).

Earnings Releases

Before Market Open

  • SAIC (Science Applications International Corp.)

    • Expected EPS: $1.73

    • Expected Revenue: $1.82B

    • Focus: Government IT services contract momentum.

    • Options Implied Move: ±4.2%

    • Update: No post-earnings data available yet. Monitor for government IT sector impact.

    • Stocks to Watch: CACI, LDOS, BAH (government IT services).

After Market Close

  • Getty Images (GETY)

    • Expected EPS: $0.05

    • Expected Revenue: $235.8M

    • Focus: Digital content licensing trends, AI impact.

    • Options Implied Move: ±8.3%

    • Stocks to Watch: SSTK, ADBE (digital content).

  • La-Z-Boy (LZB)

    • Expected EPS: $0.68

    • Expected Revenue: $508M

    • Focus: Furniture demand, consumer discretionary spending.

    • Options Implied Move: ±7.5%

    • Update: Weak retail sales data may pressure LZB due to discretionary spending concerns.

    • Stocks to Watch: ETH, WSM, RH (home furnishings).

Other Notable Earnings Reports

  • Niu Technologies (NIU) - After Close

    • Focus: Electric scooter demand in China and international markets.

    • Options Implied Move: Double-digit share price swing expected.

  • FibroGen (FGEN) - After Close

    • Focus: Pipeline developments and clinical trial updates.

    • Options Implied Move: Double-digit share price swing expected.

Conferences & Events

NVIDIA GPU Technology Conference (GTC) - Day 1

  • Companies Participating: NVDA, CRDO, SOUN, WULF, BITF.

  • Impact: HIGH - Major AI industry event.

  • Key Focus: Preliminary announcements ahead of Tuesday’s keynote.

  • Market Implications:

    • Early announcements could drive AI-related stocks. SOUN (on the watchlist) has a +16.05% pre-market gap, indicating potential momentum.

    • Stocks to Watch: NVDA, AMD, MRVL, AVGO, QCOM, AI, PLTR, SOUN (watchlist).

Oppenheimer 35th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference

  • Companies Presenting: RadNet (RDNT), AngioDynamics (ANGO), Butterfly Network (BFLY).

  • Impact: MEDIUM - Sector-specific catalysts.

  • Market Implications:

    • Healthcare sector remains a defensive play amid market uncertainty. Monitor for company-specific catalysts.

    • Stocks to Watch: RDNT, ANGO, BFLY.

Piper Energy Conference

  • Companies Presenting: Phillips 66 (PSX), Oceaneering International (OII), Helix Energy (HLX).

  • Impact: MEDIUM - Sector-specific catalysts.

  • Market Implications:

    • Energy sector outlook remains critical with oil price volatility. Monitor for capital allocation updates.

    • Stocks to Watch: PSX, OII, HLX, XLE.

Roth Conference

  • Notable Participants: D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), TeraWulf (WULF), Hut 8 (HUT).

  • Impact: MEDIUM - Growth company showcase.

  • Market Implications:

    • QBTS (on the watchlist) has a -14.78% pre-market gap, indicating potential volatility. Crypto-related stocks (WULF, HUT) may be influenced by recent $6.4B outflows in the crypto market (trending on X).

    • Stocks to Watch: QBTS, WULF, HUT.

1:30 PM ET - Amdocs (DOX) Investor Webinar

  • Hosted by J.P. Morgan: "MWC25: The Barcelona Express - The Future of Ubiquitous Connectivity, AI and Everything in Between."

  • Impact: LOW to MEDIUM - Company-specific.

  • Market Implications:

    • Insights into telecom and connectivity trends could influence related stocks.

    • Stocks to Watch: DOX, CSCO, ERIC, NOK.

Trading Strategy

Pre-Market Preparation (7:00-9:00 AM ET)

  • Assessment: S&P 500 futures opened lower (DJIA -0.43%, S&P 500 -0.54%), aligning with cautious sentiment. China data is pending, but U.S. retail sales miss has set a bearish tone. Treasury yields are likely softening, supporting safe-haven flows.

  • Action: Prepared for a defensive stance given the weak retail sales data and manufacturing index. Identified key retail and defensive stocks to watch.

Morning Session (9:30 AM - 12:00 PM ET)
 Retail Sales Missed Expectations:

  • Sector Focus: Defensive sectors - Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP).

  • Trade Setup 1: Long Defensive ETFs

    • Entry: XLU at $78.50 (post-open confirmation of bearish market reaction).

    • Target: $80.00 (+1.91%; aiming for recent highs).

    • Stop: $77.50 (-1.27%; below pre-market low).

    • Position Size: 3% of portfolio.

  • Trade Setup 2: Short Consumer Discretionary Stocks

    • Candidates: JWN, M (oversold but facing pressure).

    • Entry: JWN at $16.50 (post-open confirmation of downtrend).

    • Target: $15.50 (-6.06%).

    • Stop: $17.00 (+3.03%; above morning high).

    • Position Size: 1.5% per position.

  • Trade Setup 3: Long TLT (Treasury Bond ETF)

    • Entry: TLT at $94.00 (yields dropping post-data).

    • Target: $95.50 (+1.60%).

    • Stop: $93.00 (-1.06%).

    • Position Size: 2% of portfolio.

Midday Reassessment (12:00 PM - 1:00 PM ET)

  1. Evaluate Market Breadth:

    • Advance/Decline ratio likely negative given the bearish open.

    • Sector performance: Defensive sectors (XLU, XLP) outperforming; consumer discretionary (XLY) and industrials (XLI) lagging.

    • Volume patterns: High selling volume in retail and industrials.

  2. Adjust Positioning:

    • Take partial profits on XLU if up +1%.

    • Cut losses on JWN if stop is hit.

    • Monitor for conference-related catalysts (Oppenheimer, Piper).

  3. Monitor Conference Presentations:

    • Healthcare: Watch RDNT, ANGO, BFLY for potential defensive plays.

    • Energy: Monitor PSX, OII, HLX for relative strength.

Afternoon Session (1:00 PM - 4:00 PM ET)

  1. Position for Tuesday’s Catalysts:

    • Nvidia GTC Keynote (Tuesday): Consider initiating a position in SOUN (watchlist) given its +16.05% pre-market gap and GTC participation.

    • Housing Starts Data (Tuesday): Monitor homebuilders (LEN, DHI) for potential short setups if NAHB data confirms weakness.

  2. Specific Afternoon Opportunities:

    • SoundHound AI (SOUN):

      • Entry: $10.34 (current price on watchlist).

      • Target: $11.00 (+6.38%).

      • Stop: $9.80 (-5.22%).

      • Position Size: 1.5% of portfolio.

      • Rationale: AI sector momentum and GTC participation.

    • Energy Stocks: Watch PSX, OII, HLX for continuation of relative strength.

    • Healthcare Stocks: Monitor RDNT, ANGO, BFLY for defensive characteristics.

  3. End of Day Positioning (3:30 PM - 4:00 PM ET):

    • Reduce size of positions given elevated volatility.

    • Set alerts for after-hours earnings (GETY, LZB).

After Hours (4:00 PM - 6:00 PM ET)

  1. Monitor Earnings Reactions:

    • GETY and LZB reports; assess implications for digital content and furniture sectors.

  2. Review API Crude Oil Report (4:30 PM ET):

    • Adjust energy positions based on inventory data.

  3. Prepare for Tuesday’s Pre-Market Data:

    • Housing Starts and Building Permits (8:30 AM ET).

    • Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET).

Risk Management

  • Position Sizing: Reduced by 40% due to elevated volatility (VIX high).

  • Defined Risk: Using spreads for options (e.g., XLU call spread).

  • Stop Losses: Strict stops implemented (e.g., XLU stop at $77.50).

  • Sector Exposure: Avoid overexposure to consumer discretionary and industrials.

  • Profit-Taking: Take partial profits on XLU if up +1%.

Key Stocks to Watch

Volatility Plays

  • D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): -14.78% pre-market gap; high volatility with Roth Conference presentation.

Sector Leaders

  • Energy: XLE, CVX, PSX, OII, HLX (relative strength).

  • Defensive: XLU, XLP, WMT, TGT, COST (safe-haven plays).

  • Homebuilders: LEN, DHI, TOL, PHM (bearish bias).

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