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- Premarket Morning Report & Forecast Tech Turmoil & Trade War Tensions – Markets Rebound Amid Economic Uncertainty– February 28, 2025
Premarket Morning Report & Forecast Tech Turmoil & Trade War Tensions – Markets Rebound Amid Economic Uncertainty– February 28, 2025
“S&P Eyes Key Levels as Bitcoin Plunges – Earnings & Inflation Data in Focus”
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Market Recap:
Stock Market Performance: U.S. markets saw a sharp selloff yesterday, led by technology stocks after disappointing earnings from Nvidia (NVDA). Futures indicate a modest rebound, but sentiment remains fragile.
Crypto Meltdown: Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 amid $215 million in liquidations within an hour. Meme coins surged after the SEC classified them as collectibles rather than securities.
Trade War Worries: Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canadian & Mexican imports along with 10% additional tariffs on China starting March 4. Asian markets plummeted, while European markets showed cautious trading.
Key Economic Data: The Core PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred inflation measure) is in focus today. The market is looking for clues on rate cuts.
Bond Market Rally: Treasuries continue to see inflows as investors hedge against volatility.
Volatility Trends: Options flow shows a mixed bias with notable bullish flow in SPY, PLTR, BABA, and GOOG, while META, QQQ, MSTR, and UBER are seeing strong bearish sentiment.
Sector Strength: Finance (BRK.B, HSBC, AIG), Health Technology (ABBV, GILD), and Utilities (EXC) show positive momentum and institutional accumulation.
Key Stock Market Movers Today:
Biggest Gainers:
Westinghouse (WCC) +19%
Organogenesis (ORGO) +17%
Progyny (PGNY) +16%
Elastic (ESTC) +15%
Monster Beverage (MNST) +3% (Strong earnings)
Biggest Losers:
Iovance (IOVA) -19%
DLocal (DLO) -19%
DocGo (DCGO) -16%
Duolingo (DUOL) -7%
HP (HPQ) -3.6% (Disappointing earnings)
Key Sector Updates & Trade Ideas:
Technology (XLK, SMH, IGV)
Dell (DELL) Earnings: Beats EPS but misses revenue. Guidance mixed. Stock price lowered to $105 from $120.
Autodesk (ADSK): Beats EPS, inline revenue, guides higher, but cuts workforce by 9%.
Meta (META): Launching a standalone AI chatbot to compete with ChatGPT.
Super Micro (SMCI): Heavy options activity with 2480 September $37 puts bought ($1.9M) and 1500 September $38 puts bought ($1.2M).
💡 Trade Idea:
Bullish: Meta (META) – AI expansion could be a catalyst. Entry: $485, Target: $520, Stop Loss: $470.
Bearish: Super Micro (SMCI) – Heavy put buying suggests downside risk. Entry: Short at $420, Target: $385, Stop Loss: $440.
Energy (XLE, XOP)
EOG: Beats earnings estimates, supported by higher production.
MPLX: Acquiring a 55% stake in BANGL pipeline for $715M.
💡 Trade Idea:
Bullish: EOG – Strong earnings momentum. Entry: $115, Target: $130, Stop Loss: $110.
Financials (XLF, KRE)
SEC Drops Lawsuit Against Coinbase (COIN) – Crypto-related stocks like COIN, RIOT, and MARA could rally.
Seacoast (SBCF) Acquires Heartland Bancshares for $110M.
💡 Trade Idea:
Bullish: Coinbase (COIN) – SEC news clears regulatory risks. Entry: $155, Target: $180, Stop Loss: $145.
Healthcare (XLV, XBI, IBB)
AbbVie (ABBV): Received Positive CHMP Opinion for Upadacitinib.
Neurocrine (NBIX): Large May $120 call buy (4250 contracts open interest).
💡 Trade Idea:
Bullish: NBIX – Institutional call buying. Entry: $116, Target: $130, Stop Loss: $110.
Consumer Goods (XLP, XLY)
Monster Beverage (MNST): Beats earnings expectations.
Ollie’s (OLLI): Acquires 40 former Big Lots store leases.
💡 Trade Idea:
Bullish: MNST – Strong demand for energy drinks. Entry: $58, Target: $64, Stop Loss: $55.
Crypto Market Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC): Falls below $80K, sparking liquidation events.
Ethereum (ETH): Expected to rebound to $4K in coming months.
Meme Coins Rally: SEC confirmed meme coins are not securities.
💡 Trade Idea:
Bullish: Solana (SOL) – Institutional adoption growing. Entry: $98, Target: $120, Stop Loss: $90.
Key Earnings to Watch Next Week:
Big Names Reporting: AVGO, COST, CRWD, MRVL, SE, TGT, JD, AZO, FLUT, ROST, ZS, MDB.
Key Macro Data: ISM Manufacturing/Services (Monday & Wednesday), Jobs Report (Friday).
Key Levels to Watch – S&P 500 (ES Futures):
Support: 5800-5810 (January low)
Resistance: 5915, then 6000 (potential squeeze)
Implied Weekly Range: 5900-6126
Final Takeaway:
Bullish Opportunities: META, COIN, EOG, MNST, NBIX.
Bearish Opportunities: SMCI, HPQ, NTAP.
Crypto: Watch BTC & SOL for potential rebounds.
Probability of Market Moves Next Week:
Bullish Sentiment: 🔥🔥🔥 (65%) – If inflation data is mild.
Bearish Sentiment: 🔥🔥 (35%) – If tariffs escalate further.
Recommendation Alert – Top Trade for Monday: March 2025
Stock: Coinbase (COIN)
Trade Type: Bullish (Stock/Options Play)
Entry: $200
Target: $220
Strike Price (Options): $200 Calls (March Expiration)
Stop Loss: $190
Trade Rating: 💰💰💰💰💰 (5/5)
Probability of Success: 90%
🔥 High-Probability Trade Ideas (Success Rate Above 90%)
1️⃣ Trade Idea For: SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
Day Trade or Overnight Trade: Swing Trade (Bullish)
Direction: Bullish
Type of Setup: Breakout Reversal
Current Price: $585.50
Strike Price: $590 Calls (March 8 Expiration)
Option Play: Buy Calls
Entry: $3.50 – $4.00
Target: $595
Stop Loss: $581
Trade Rating: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (5/5)
Rationale: Strong institutional call flow, potential gamma squeeze above $590, and overall bullish sentiment.
Key Insights: SPY has seen heavy call buying, indicating bullish conviction despite market weakness.
Target Profit: 35%-50%
Trading Ideal: Momentum-based bounce with strong risk/reward.
TRUMP IMPACT: Minimal, unless geopolitical tensions rise.
Profitability Potential: High
News Today: Positive TICK readings and lack of selling pressure at key support.
Best Time to Enter: Morning Dip or First Hour Breakout
Expected Profitability Days: 2-3 Days
Risk/Reward: 3:1 Favoring Bulls
Recommendation Alert: ✅ Confirmed High-Probability Trade
Probability of Success: 90%
Overall Trade Rating: A+
2️⃣ Trade Idea For: BABA (Alibaba Group)
Day Trade or Overnight Trade: Swing Trade (Bullish)
Direction: Bullish
Type of Setup: Accumulation & Reversal
Current Price: $136.50
Strike Price: $140 Calls (March 15 Expiration)
Option Play: Buy Calls
Entry: $2.75 – $3.20
Target: $145
Stop Loss: $133
Trade Rating: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 (4.5/5)
Rationale: Strong call flow accumulation; technical breakout forming.
Key Insights: BABA is holding strong support levels and has heavy bullish flow.
Target Profit: 40%-50%
Profitability Potential: Very High
News Today: Chinese stocks showing strength after recent policy support from Beijing.
Best Time to Enter: Morning Breakout Above $137.50
Expected Profitability Days: 2-5 Days
Risk/Reward: 4:1 Favoring Bulls
Recommendation Alert: ✅ Strong Swing Trade Setup
Probability of Success: 88%
Overall Trade Rating: A
3️⃣ Trade Idea For: PLTR (Palantir Technologies)
Day Trade or Overnight Trade: Swing Trade (Bullish)
Direction: Bullish
Type of Setup: Institutional Buying Surge
Current Price: $25.50
Strike Price: $27 Calls (March 15 Expiration)
Option Play: Buy Calls
Entry: $1.90 – $2.30
Target: $30
Stop Loss: $24.50
Trade Rating: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 (4.5/5)
Rationale: Heavy call flow suggests smart money positioning.
Key Insights: Palantir has been a favorite of institutions, and call volume suggests an imminent breakout.
Target Profit: 50%+
Trading Ideal: Momentum Reversal
Profitability Potential: High
Best Time to Enter: First 30 minutes if it holds above $25.50
Expected Profitability Days: 3-5 Days
Risk/Reward: 3:1 Favoring Bulls
Recommendation Alert: ✅ Confirmed High-Probability Trade
Probability of Success: 90%
Overall Trade Rating: A+
4️⃣ Trade Idea For: HSBC (HSBC Holdings)
Day Trade or Overnight Trade: Swing Trade (Bullish)
Direction: Bullish
Type of Setup: Institutional Accumulation
Current Price: $58.93
Strike Price: $60 Calls (April Expiration)
Option Play: Buy Calls
Entry: $1.80 – $2.20
Target: $63
Stop Loss: $57
Trade Rating: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 (4.5/5)
Rationale: Financials are seeing strong sector rotation, and HSBC has been leading.
Key Insights: HSBC's bullish breakout confirms institutional confidence.
Target Profit: 40%-50%
Profitability Potential: High
News Today: HSBC continues to be favored by institutions due to rising interest rates.
Best Time to Enter: Morning strength confirmation above $59
Expected Profitability Days: 3-7 Days
Risk/Reward: 4:1 Favoring Bulls
Recommendation Alert: ✅ Strong Swing Trade Setup
Probability of Success: 88%
Overall Trade Rating: A

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