🚨 PHARMA WAR ERUPTS: Novo Sues Hims as Markets Reset After Historic Dow 50K Breakthrough

DCG COMMAND CENTER | Week of February 9-13, 2026 |Your Complete Market Intelligence & Trading Gameplan

February 09, 2026

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⚡ BREAKING: What You MUST Know Before Monday's Open

CRITICAL OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS:

  • 🔥 NOVO vs HIMS LEGAL BATTLE: Novo Nordisk (NVO) filed lawsuit against Hims & Hers (HIMS) for patent infringement on compounded semaglutide - HIMS down 18% pre-market to $18.66

  • 📊 S&P FUTURES: Trading at 6,940.25 (-0.18%) after Friday's monster rally that sent Dow past 50,000 for first time in history

  • 💰 BITCOIN BREAKDOWN: BTC trading at $70,936, down from weekend highs, still volatile in $69K-$72K range

  • 🌏 ASIA EXPLODES HIGHER: Nikkei 225 surges 4.7% to new record high as Japan PM secures supermajority

  • 🇨🇳 CHINA BOMBSHELL: Regulators urge banks to curb US Treasury holdings citing market volatility - sending dollar down 0.5%

📈 MARKET OVERVIEW: The Week That Changed Everything

Friday's Historic Session Recap

After a brutal week of tech selling, markets staged an epic reversal:

  • Dow Jones: +1,232 points (+2.52%) to close at 50,141 - FIRST EVER CLOSE ABOVE 50K

  • S&P 500: +2.00% to 6,922.93

  • Nasdaq: +1.97% recovery after heavy losses

Monday Pre-Market Positioning (As of 7:00 AM ET)

  • S&P 500 Futures (ES): 6,940.25 (-0.18%)

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: Down 0.5%

  • Dow Futures: -33 points (-0.07%)

  • VIX: 18.58 (-14.65%) - Fear gauge cooling off significantly

FUTURES KEY LEVELS FOR MONDAY:

  • ES Support: 6,920 | 6,900 | 6,880

  • ES Resistance: 6,960 | 6,980 | 7,000 (psychological)

  • Critical Zone: Watch 6,927-6,947 range for breakout/breakdown signals

🔥 HOTTEST CATALYST: PHARMA BATTLEFIELD

The Novo vs. Hims War - Trading Implications

NVO (Novo Nordisk)

  • Current Price: $47.64 (Feb 6 close)

  • Pre-Market: $49.79 (+4.51%) - SURGING on lawsuit news

  • Trade Setup:

    • Entry Zone: $47.50-$49.00

    • Target 1: $52.00 (+9.2%)

    • Target 2: $55.00 (+15.4%)

    • Stop Loss: Below $46.00

  • Conviction Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5) - STRONG BUY

  • Catalyst: Legal action restores competitive moat, positive sentiment shift after brutal 2025 (-50% YoY)

HIMS (Hims & Hers Health)

  • Current Price: $23.02 (Feb 6 close)

  • Pre-Market: $18.66 (-18.94%) - COLLAPSING

  • Trade Setup:

    • Short Entry: $19.00-$20.00 (on any bounce)

    • Target 1: $16.50 (-28%)

    • Target 2: $14.00 (-39%)

    • Cover: Above $21.50

  • Conviction Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/5) - HIGH CONVICTION SHORT

  • Catalysts Against: Novo lawsuit, potential civil/criminal penalties from FDA, Citi cuts PT to $16.50 from $30

SYMPATHY PLAYS:

  • LLY (Eli Lilly): $1,058.18 - Benefits from Hims weakness, maintains pricing power

  • AMGN (Amgen): $384.32 (+4.49%) - Obesity space consolidation beneficiary

💼 WEEK AHEAD: ECONOMIC CALENDAR & EARNINGS BLITZ

KEY ECONOMIC REPORTS

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 9:

  • 11:00 AM: Treasury Buyback Operation

  • 11:30 AM: 3 & 6 Month Bill Auction

  • 1:30 PM: Fed Speaker Waller

  • 2:30 PM: Fed Vice Chair Miran

  • 3:15 PM: Fed Speaker Bostic

  • 5:00 PM: Fed Vice Chair Miran (again)

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 10:

  • Retail Sales Report - Critical consumer spending data

  • 2 Fed Speakers

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 11:

  • ⚠️ JOBS REPORT (Delayed from government shutdown) - MAJOR MARKET MOVER

  • Expected: Subdued private payroll growth per Goldman Sachs alternative data

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 12:

  • Jobless Claims

  • 2 Fed Speakers

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 13:

  • 🔥 CPI INFLATION REPORT (Also delayed) - CRITICAL FOR FED POLICY

  • Expected: Core inflation continuing to ease from Q4

MASSIVE EARNINGS WEEK AHEAD

MONDAY EARNINGS:

  • MNDY (Monday.com): Expected EPS $0.92 vs consensus - Stock at $98.00 pre-market (-10%) after missing guidance

  • OPEN (Opendoor): Real estate tech - watch housing data correlation

  • ON (ON Semiconductor): Chip sector play

  • CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs): Materials/steel

TUESDAY MEGA-CAP LINEUP:

  • HOOD (Robinhood): Fintech - crypto volatility impact

  • KO (Coca-Cola): Consumer staples bellwether

  • CVS (CVS Health): Healthcare

  • F (Ford): Auto sector

  • SPOT (Spotify): Streaming

  • NET (Cloudflare), DDOG (Datadog): Cloud infrastructure

  • LYFT: Ride-sharing

WEDNESDAY POWER PLAYERS:

  • SHOP (Shopify): E-commerce critical read

  • CSCO (Cisco): Networking/AI infrastructure

  • MCD (McDonald's): Consumer spending indicator

  • QS (QuantumScape): EV battery tech - stock up 9%+ pre-market on Eagle Line launch

THURSDAY HEAVY HITTERS:

  • COIN (Coinbase): Crypto exchange - Bitcoin volatility play

  • ANET (Arista Networks): Data center AI play

  • PINS (Pinterest): Social media/advertising

  • DKNG (DraftKings): Sports betting

  • RIVN (Rivian): EV sector

FRIDAY:

  • MRNA (Moderna): Biotech

🎯 HIGH-CONVICTION TRADES FOR THE WEEK

1. LONG: NVO (Novo Nordisk) - Pharma Moat Recovery

Price: $47.64 | Target: $55.00 (+15.4%) | Stop: $46.00
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/5)

Thesis: Legal action against Hims restores competitive positioning. Stock down 50% in 2025 despite maintaining 62% GLP-1 market share. Wegovy pill launch showing "promising initial uptake" per company. Medicare Part D coverage expected mid-2026 is massive tailwind.

Entry Strategy: Scale in $47.50-$49.00 range
Risk/Reward: Favorable 3:1 ratio
Time Horizon: 2-4 weeks

Price: $23.02 | Target: $16.50 (-28%) | Cover: $21.50
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/5)

Thesis: Facing Novo lawsuit for patent infringement. Potential civil and criminal penalties per CNBC. Citi slashed PT from $30 to $16.50. Compounded semaglutide business model under existential threat. After-hours at $19.46 already validates thesis.

Entry Strategy: Short any bounce to $19-$20
Risk/Reward: Excellent 2:1
Time Horizon: 1-3 weeks

3. LONG: ORCL (Oracle) - Cloud Database AI Play

Price: $142.82 | Target: $180.00 (+26%) | Stop: $138.00
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)

Thesis: DA Davidson upgraded to Buy with $180 PT. Cloud database infrastructure critical for AI boom. Taiwan export data shows chips+electronics demand surging (+69.9% YoY), benefiting entire AI supply chain.

Entry Strategy: Buy $142-$145
Risk/Reward: 5:1
Time Horizon: 6-12 weeks

4. LONG: MU (Micron Technology) - HBM4 Controversy Creates Opportunity

Price: $394.69 | Target: $600.00 (+52%) | Stop: $380.00
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)

Thesis: Stock down $14 on news Nvidia sourcing HBM4 primarily from SK Hynix and Samsung. TD Cowen sees path to $600 over time. Selloff overdone - MU still critical NAND/DRAM supplier. Samsung competition validates HBM market size.

Entry Strategy: Accumulate $390-$400
Risk/Reward: 4:1
Time Horizon: 3-6 months

5. LONG: KR (Kroger) - CEO Change Catalyst

Price: $67.50 | Target: $75.00 (+11%) | Stop: $65.00
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)

Thesis: WSJ reports Kroger naming former Walmart executive Greg Foran as new CEO. Fresh leadership with proven track record. Consumer staples finding support as defensive rotation continues.

Entry Strategy: Buy $67-$68.50
Risk/Reward: 3:1
Time Horizon: 4-8 weeks

🌊 SECTOR ROTATION & MONEY FLOW ANALYSIS

🟢 BULLISH SECTORS - WHERE MONEY IS FLOWING

1. HEALTHCARE / PHARMACEUTICALS ⬆️

  • NVO lawsuit restores pricing power narrative

  • Defensive rotation supporting big pharma

  • Weight-loss drug market consolidating around established players

  • Top Picks: NVO, LLY, AMGN

2. TECHNOLOGY - SELECT NAMES ⬆️

  • Not broad-based, but specific AI infrastructure plays working

  • Data center buildout accelerating per Taiwan export data

  • Cloud database demand robust

  • Top Picks: ORCL, ANET, NVDA (on dips)

3. CONSUMER STAPLES ⬆️

  • Leadership changes catalyzing moves (KR)

  • Defensive rotation as Fed policy uncertain

  • Strong retail sales expected Tuesday

  • Top Picks: KR, KO (earnings Tuesday)

4. INDUSTRIALS ⬆️

  • Manufacturing diffusion index pointing to rebound (BofA data)

  • Truckload indicators improving

  • Top Picks: Sector ETFs, selected names on dips

5. MATERIALS ⬆️

  • Gold above $5,000/oz - massive breakout

  • Silver recovering from Friday's 30% crash

  • CLF earnings Monday - steel demand indicator

  • Top Picks: Gold/Silver miners, CLF

🔴 BEARISH SECTORS - AVOID OR SHORT

1. TELEHEALTH / DIGITAL HEALTH ⬇️

  • HIMS debacle spreading fear across sector

  • Regulatory scrutiny intensifying

  • Compounding pharmacy model under attack

  • Avoid: HIMS, TDOC, OSCR

2. SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT ⬇️

  • MU weakness despite being isolated to HBM4

  • Inventory concerns persisting

  • Taiwan strength not translating to all chip names

  • Watch: Selective weakness, not broad-based yet

3. SMALL-CAP TECH ⬇️

  • MNDY guidance miss (-10% pre-market) signals ongoing software demand uncertainty

  • SaaS multiples compressing

  • Avoid: Unprofitable SaaS, high-valuation growth stocks

4. REAL ESTATE ⬇️

  • OPEN earnings today - expect weakness

  • Mortgage rates elevated despite Fed pause

  • Housing permits falling

  • Avoid: Homebuilders, RE tech

🪙 BITCOIN & CRYPTO SENTIMENT BREAKDOWN

Current State: VOLATILITY WITH SUPPORT HOLDING

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Current: $70,936 (+2.6% in 24hr)

  • 24hr Range: $69,066 - $71,852

  • Key Level: $71,000 pivot - bulls need to reclaim and hold

  • Resistance: $71,850 - $72,000 ceiling

  • Support: $69,100 strong buying zone

Market Analysis:

  • Fell below $70K earlier Monday but rebounded sharply

  • Still down 41% from October $126K all-time high

  • $1 billion+ in liquidations over past week cleared leveraged positions

  • Moving averages still bearish (price below key MAs)

Sentiment Indicators:

  • Fear & Greed: 39 (Fear) - historically good for entries

  • Social volume cautious but not capitulatory

  • Prediction markets pricing 90%+ chance BTC goes below $65K this year

Trading Strategy:

  • Bulls: Watch for $71,850 breakout confirmation, then $72K target

  • Bears: Rejection at $71,850 offers short entry targeting $69K

  • HODLers: Current fear levels historically good accumulation zone

  • Risk Management: Volatility remains extreme - size accordingly

Crypto Sector Plays:

  • COIN: Earnings Thursday - volatility = volume = revenue

  • MARA: Morgan Stanley initiated Underweight - avoid

  • WULF: Morgan Stanley initiated Overweight - BUY miners over holders

  • RIOT, CLSK: Better risk/reward than pure BTC exposure

🏛️ TRUMP IMPACT & POLITICAL EDGE

White House Policy Catalysts

FED LEADERSHIP TRANSITION:

  • Kevin Warsh nominated as next Fed Chair (replacing Powell in May)

  • Initial market reaction: Steeper yield curve, higher long-end yields

  • Warsh seen as more hawkish on inflation, skeptical of balance sheet expansion

  • Trading Impact: Financials benefit from steeper curve, growth stocks face headwind from higher long rates

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY PUSH:

  • Fannie/Freddie directed to purchase $200B in MBS to lower mortgage rates

  • Relatively small vs. total MBS market but meaningful for 2026 net supply

  • Ban on institutional homebuying proposed but needs Congressional action

  • Trading Impact: Positive for homebuilders (cautiously), negative for OPEN and iBuyers

VENEZUELA ENERGY DIPLOMACY:

  • Energy Sec. Wright planning Venezuela visit soon

  • Dialogue on PDVSA leadership future

  • Venezuela elections expected 18-24 months

  • Trading Impact: Oil services, LatAm energy exposure

AI & TECH INVESTMENT:

  • $2.7 trillion in AI investment commitments locked in

  • $90 billion PA AI/energy projects

  • Intel deal - government acquires 10% stake, stock doubled since

  • Space Command to Huntsville, AL - 30,000 jobs, $100B+ investment

  • Trading Impact: INTC, defense contractors, AL real estate

CREDIT CARD INTEREST RATE CAP:

  • Proposed 10% cap for 1 year - controversial

  • Trump relying on Congress (low probability of passage)

  • Trading Impact: Banks/credit card issuers rallied on Congressional requirement clarification

📊 TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES

1. INTC (Intel) - Government Partnership Play

  • 10% government stake deal

  • Stock doubled from lows

  • Domestic chip manufacturing beneficiary

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)

2. Defense Contractors - Space Command, Military Spending

  • LMT, RTX, NOC, GD

  • Huntsville, AL buildout massive for sector

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)

3. Oil Services - Venezuela Opening

  • SLB, HAL, OXY

  • PDVSA normalization multi-year story

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)

🔍 ANALYST MOVES & RATINGS CHANGES

Monday Morning Upgrades ⬆️

  • ORCL (Oracle): DA Davidson upgraded to Buy from Neutral, PT $180

  • SOFI (SoFi Technologies): Citizens upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform

  • RBLX (Roblox): Roth Capital upgraded to Buy from Neutral

Monday Morning Downgrades ⬇️

  • HIMS (Hims & Hers): Citi cut PT to $16.50 from $30, reiterated Sell

  • MNDY (Monday.com): Multiple firms cutting targets after guidance miss

  • KVYO (Klaviyo): Benchmark lowered PT to $30 from $46

Initiations 📋

  • WULF (TeraWulf): Morgan Stanley initiated Overweight - Bitcoin miner

  • MARA (MARA Holdings): Morgan Stanley initiated Underweight

🌍 GLOBAL MARKET DRIVERS

Asia-Pacific Session Highlights

JAPAN SURGE 🇯🇵

  • Nikkei 225: +4.7% to NEW ALL-TIME HIGH

  • PM Takaichi's party secured two-thirds supermajority

  • Political stability + fiscal stimulus expectations

  • Yen weakness benefiting exporters

CHINA MOVES 🇨🇳

  • Ministry urging banks to reduce US Treasury exposure

  • Commerce Ministry auto company forum - optimizing trade-in schemes

  • Employment guidance for platform/delivery companies (BABA, JD, Meituan)

  • Impact: Dollar weakness, Treasury yields, Chinese ADRs

TAIWAN EXPORTS 🇹🇼

  • January exports +69.9% YoY to record $65.77B

  • US sales more than DOUBLED

  • Chip/electronics demand surging

  • Impact: Validates AI infrastructure buildout thesis

💡 MASTERMIND & SOCIAL INSIGHTS

Key Trading Community Observations:

From Discord/Twitter Flow:

  1. Palmer (@BankTheTrade):

    • NVO/HIMS setup called early - lawsuit filing confirmed thesis

    • MU/NVDA HBM4 situation: "Samsung getting the business validates market size"

    • Watching DT (Dynatrace) guidance beat - software not all dead

  2. Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv):

    • "Is there a shittier stock than HIMS besides maybe PYPL?"

    • Brutal but accurate - both facing existential business model questions

  3. Mike Zaccardi (@MikeZaccardi):

    • Goldman Sachs data showing subdued private payroll growth in January

    • 800K benchmark revision to payrolls coming - largest since 2000

    • BofA truckload diffusion indicator pointing to manufacturing rebound

  4. Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick):

    • "Nikkei boom while yields rise - nothing like fiscal deficits"

    • Tax cuts + spending = market fuel (Japan proving it again)

Key Themes Emerging:

  • Software earnings becoming stock-specific stories, not sector-wide

  • Pharma competitive dynamics shifting rapidly

  • Fed speakers this week crucial for rate cut timeline

  • Asia strength providing global bid

📉 WHAT WENT WRONG: HIMS CASE STUDY

Anatomy of a Collapse

The Setup:

  • HIMS launched compounded semaglutide pill at $49/month

  • Marketed as Wegovy/Ozempic alternative

  • Stock rallied on "disruption" narrative

The Breakdown:

  • Feb 5: Announces $49 Wegovy pill copy

  • Feb 6: Stock crashes 16% intraday

  • Feb 9: Novo files lawsuit

  • Pre-market: Down another 18% to $18.66

Trading Lessons:

  1. Regulatory risk >> Growth potential in healthcare

  2. Compounding pharmacies vulnerable to Big Pharma legal action

  3. Market validated NVO at HIMS expense - zero-sum game

  4. Analyst downgrades lag price action - Citi cut came AFTER collapse

Sympathy Opportunities:

  • NVO long benefited directly from HIMS pain

  • LLY avoided collateral damage

  • Telemedicine sector broadly weak

🎲 WEEK AHEAD TRADE SETUPS BY DAY

MONDAY (Feb 9):

Pre-Market Focus: HIMS/NVO, MNDY earnings reaction, Asia follow-through
Key Events: 4 Fed speakers (Waller, Miran 2x, Bostic)
Earnings: MNDY, OPEN, ON, CLF
Strategy: Fade HIMS bounces, buy NVO dips, watch Fed speaker reactions

TUESDAY (Feb 10):

Key Events: Retail Sales (10:00 AM), 2 Fed speakers
Earnings: HOOD, KO, CVS, F, SPOT, NET, DDOG, LYFT
Strategy: Consumer discretionary plays based on retail sales, tech earnings volatility

WEDNESDAY (Feb 11):

Key Events: DELAYED JOBS REPORT - Massive Market Mover
Earnings: SHOP, CSCO, MCD, QS, HUBS
Strategy: Position BEFORE jobs number, react to employment data

THURSDAY (Feb 12):

Key Events: Jobless Claims, 2 Fed speakers
Earnings: COIN, ANET, PINS, DKNG, RIVN
Strategy: Crypto correlation trades, cloud infrastructure plays

FRIDAY (Feb 13):

Key Events: CPI INFLATION REPORT - Fed Policy Driver
Earnings: MRNA
Strategy: Options expiry, position squaring, CPI reaction trades

🎯 OPTIONS FLOW & DARK POOL ACTIVITY

Notable Friday Action:

  • Unusual call activity in NVDA March $200 strikes

  • COIN March $300 calls heavy accumulation ahead of earnings

  • SPY 0DTE put selling at 6900 strike - institution supporting market

  • Dark pool prints in AAPL, MSFT showing institutional accumulation

  • HIMS put buying accelerated into close Friday (traders knew?)

Monday Watch List:

  • MNDY options (post-earnings volatility)

  • NVO call spread opportunities

  • HIMS put calendars (sell near-term, buy further out)

  • Crypto miners - WULF, RIOT call activity

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⚖️ RISK MANAGEMENT REMINDERS

Golden Rules for This Week:

  1. Position Sizing: With CPI and Jobs data, keep sizes modest

  2. Stop Losses: Honor them religiously - HIMS longs who didn't got destroyed

  3. Earnings Volatility: Options premiums elevated - don't overpay

  4. Fed Speakers: 7+ Fed speakers this week = headline risk

  5. Overnight Gaps: Asia volatility creating gap risk - hedge or size down

Suggested Portfolio Allocation:

  • 40% Cash (data-heavy week)

  • 30% Core positions (low beta, defensive)

  • 20% Tactical trades (setups above)

  • 10% Speculation (earnings plays, crypto)

🔮 WEEK AHEAD OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING THE DATA STORM

Base Case (60% probability):

  • Markets consolidate Friday's gains in tight range

  • Jobs data shows continued cooling but no crisis

  • CPI confirms disinflation trend continuing

  • S&P holds 6,900-7,000 range

  • Sector rotation continues (tech → defensives)

Bull Case (25% probability):

  • Jobs/CPI both better than expected

  • Tech earnings (SHOP, COIN, ANET) beat significantly

  • Asia strength cascades to US session

  • S&P breaks through 7,000, targets 7,050-7,100

Bear Case (15% probability):

  • Jobs data weak enough to trigger recession fears

  • CPI reaccelerates, complicating Fed path

  • Tech earnings disappoint broadly

  • S&P breaks 6,900, tests 6,850 then 6,800

Trading the Scenarios:

  • Base: Range trade, sell resistance, buy support

  • Bull: Break chase with tight stops

  • Bear: Defensive rotation, long VIX, short weak sectors

📊 FINAL SCORECARD: CONVICTION METER

HIGHEST CONVICTION TRADES (5/5 Stars):

  1. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ SHORT HIMS @ $19-20 → Target $16.50

  2. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ LONG NVO @ $47.50-49 → Target $55

STRONG CONVICTION (4/5 Stars):

  1. ⭐⭐⭐⭐ LONG ORCL @ $142-145 → Target $180

  2. ⭐⭐⭐⭐ LONG MU @ $390-400 → Target $600 (longer timeframe)

SOLID SETUPS (3/5 Stars):

  1. ⭐⭐⭐ LONG KR @ $67-68.50 → Target $75

  2. ⭐⭐⭐ LONG WULF (Bitcoin miner) on MS upgrade

  3. ⭐⭐⭐ LONG LLY as HIMS weakness beneficiary

🎬 CLOSING THOUGHTS

This week separates the prepared from the panicked. With the delayed Jobs Report and CPI both hitting within 48 hours, volatility is guaranteed. The HIMS/NVO situation gives us a perfect case study in how quickly market structure can shift when regulatory and legal forces collide.

Three Rules for Success This Week:

  1. Trust the Process: Stick to your plan, honor your stops

  2. Respect the Data: Jobs/CPI will move markets more than any Fed speaker

  3. Stay Flexible: What worked Friday may not work Monday - adapt

The community of traders at DCG doesn't predict the future - we prepare for multiple scenarios and react with precision. That's the difference between hoping and knowing.

Trade smart. Trade safe. Trade together.

📝 KEY REMINDERS:

  • All price targets based on verified closing prices as of Feb 6, 2026

  • Stop losses are MANDATORY for all setups

  • Position sizing should reflect personal risk tolerance

  • This is educational content, not financial advice

  • Past performance does not guarantee future results

  • Always do your own due diligence

DCG COMMAND CENTER
Where Precision Meets Performance

Next Newsletter: February 10, 2026 (Pre-Market Report)

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Trading stocks, options, futures, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Always consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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