August 18th - Peace Talks, Crypto Surge, and Retail Earnings – A Historic Week Ahead - AI Weekend Market Intelligence Report

📊 Market Overview

• S&P 500: Closed the week higher, reclaiming 21 EMA and sustaining momentum into monthly options expiration week.

• VIX: Faded lower, signaling calm before CPI and Jackson Hole.

• Sentiment: AAII bearish tilt, but NAAIM exposure elevated at 96 → strong positioning risk.

• Technical Setup: ES basing above 6469–6500, breakout targets 6530–6605; downside risk if 6443 breaks.

Key Catalyst Drivers This Week:

• Macro: U.S. CPI Tuesday, PPI Thursday, Retail Sales Friday.

• Fed Watch: Powell’s Jackson Hole speech next week looms large.

• OPEX Flow: Massive positioning around 6500 SPX strike.

📰 Headline Drivers

• Geopolitical: Trump–Putin Alaska summit signals intent for a direct peace agreement → bullish equities, bearish oil.

• Tariffs: Trump says no new tariffs on China → relief for tech/manufacturing.

• Rates: Mortgage rates hit 10-month lows → homebuilders in play.

• Debt Warning: U.S. interest expense passes $1T YTD → long-term macro risk.

• Crypto: DOGE ETF filing, ETH ETF inflows, Bitcoin institutional accumulation accelerate adoption.

🏛️ Economic Events This Week

• Monday: Cleveland Fed inflation expectations, China new loans.

• Tuesday: U.S. CPI (market mover), Fed’s Barkin speaks.

• Wednesday: Oil inventories, Fed speakers.

• Thursday: PPI, Jobless claims, UK GDP, Eurozone employment.

• Friday: U.S. Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment.

💼 Earnings to Watch

• Monday: AMC, BigBear.ai, Monday.com, Oklo, AST SpaceMobile.

• Tuesday: CoreWeave, Sea Ltd., Rigetti Computing.

• Wednesday: Cisco, Cava, Loar, MSG Entertainment.

• Thursday: Walmart, Ross Stores, Applied Materials, Deere.

• Friday: Flo, Pandora.

Retail dominates mid-week with HD, TGT, WMT, TJX, ROST – expect sector volatility.

🔥 Sector Rotation & Setups

• Bullish Rotation: Retail (XRT highs), Airlines (Canada strike resolved), Crypto-linked equities (COIN, HOOD, MSTR).

• Bearish Rotation: Energy (oil bearish post-summit), Financials (rising short interest).

• Tech Leadership: NVDA weight hits record 8.2% of S&P 500.

• Healthcare: UNH accumulation by Buffett/Burry; bullish premium flows.

📌 High-Conviction Trade Ideas FOR THE WEEK - SUBSCRIBERS GET TRADE DETAILS BELOW

COIN (Coinbase)

DAL / JETS ETF (Airlines Basket)

XLE (Energy ETF)

ETH (Ethereum)

🌙 Financial Astrology Note

• Venus–North Node alignment favors business deals, partnerships, and creativity.

• Moon entering Gemini → heightened market chatter and rotations (watch volume surges).

🏁 Closing Takeaways

• Peace headlines = bullish equities, bearish energy.

• Retail earnings mid-week = volatility in consumer discretionary.

• Crypto catalysts (DOGE ETF, ETH inflows) = breakout watch.

• SPX still magnetized to 6500 OPEX strike.

Next Week Bias: Bullish tech, retail, crypto. Bearish energy, financials.

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