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- NVIDIA EARNINGS DAY: AI Supercycle, SOTU Tariff Fallout
NVIDIA EARNINGS DAY: AI Supercycle, SOTU Tariff Fallout
S&P 500 Futures Green | NVDA Reports After Close | AXON +20% AH | BTC Rebounds to $65K | SOTU Tariff Shock Fades | New Home Sales Data Due
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QUICK INTEL: 5 THINGS EVERY TRADER MUST KNOW TODAY
01 | NVDA EARNINGS TONIGHT (4:20 PM ET): Consensus Q4 EPS $1.52-$1.53 (+72% YoY), Revenue $65.6-65.7B (+67% YoY). Implied move is +/-6%. Last close $193.44. This is THE market-moving event of the week. |
02 | TRUMP SOTU TARIFF IMPACT: Trump doubled down on tariffs in SOTU, said tariffs will 'replace income tax.' Supreme Court earlier struck down IEEPA tariffs; Trump invoked Section 122 to impose 15% global tariff. Insurance, Big Tech, Housing policy stocks in focus. |
03 | AXON MASSIVE BEAT AH (+$70 premarket): AXON closed $438.84, AH surging ~$70. Q4 EPS $2.15 vs $1.60 est (+$0.55 beat). Revenue $796.7M vs $755.6M est. FY26 and FY28 guides above consensus. Sympathy plays: defense AI tech names. |
04 | CRYPTO RECOVERY UNDERWAY: BTC +3.52% at $65,423 | ETH +5.51% at $1,922 | SOL +8.29% at $82.99. Fear & Greed at 11 (Extreme Fear) signals capitulation bounce. Solana ecosystem +7.99% sector mover. |
05 | ES FUTURES & PRE-MARKET: ES1! at 6,920 (+0.24%) from screenshot. SPY pre-mkt +0.26%, QQQ +0.32%, IWM +0.51%, DIA +0.19%. Key levels: H4 Long Breakout ~6,931 | H3 Short ~6,900 | L3 Long ~6,860 | L4 Short Breakout ~6,828. |
�� MARKET SNAPSHOT — TUESDAY FEB 24 CLOSE | PRE-MARKET FEB 25
INDEX | FEB 24 CLOSE | PRE-MKT FEB 25 | CHANGE |
S&P 500 / SPY | $687.35 | $689.14 (+0.26%) | BULLISH |
Nasdaq / QQQ | $607.87 | $609.81 (+0.32%) | BULLISH |
Russell 2K / IWM | $263.33 | $264.68 (+0.51%) | BULLISH |
Dow Jones / DIA | $491.79 | $492.74 (+0.19%) | BULLISH |
VIX | 19.48 | ~18.50 (est.) | DECLINING |
ES Futures (6:45AM) | 6,920.00 | +16.25 (+0.24%) | ABOVE H3 |
�� $ES FUTURES — CAMARILLA KEY LEVELS
Source: DCG TradingView Chart (Camarilla/FVG indicator) — as of 5:45 AM UTC-6, Feb 25, 2026
Level | Price | Bias | Action |
H5 LB Target | ~6,960 | RESISTANCE | Sellers activate — consider puts if tested near NVDA earnings |
H4 Long Breakout | ~6,931 | STRONG RES | Bulls need a close above here to confirm continuation |
H3 SHORT | ~6,900 | PIVOT | Key intraday battle zone — watch for rejection or breakout |
Current ES | 6,920 | BETWEEN H3/H4 | Squeeze zone — directional bias from NVDA print tonight |
L3 LONG | ~6,860 | SUPPORT | First major buy-the-dip zone |
L4 Short Breakout | ~6,828 | KEY SUPPORT | Critical level — break here = bearish acceleration |
L5 SB Target | ~6,800 | BEAR TARGET | Disaster scenario / max pain level |
��️ WHITE HOUSE IMPACT — TRUMP SOTU & POLICY MARKET MOVES
Trump SOTU — February 24, 2026 (Night Before Market Open)
President Trump delivered the longest State of the Union in history on the evening of February 24, 2026. Key market-relevant statements made from the podium:
SOTU STATEMENT | MARKET IMPACT | AFFECTED SECTORS |
Tariffs to REPLACE income tax | BEARISH SHORT-TERM — uncertainty on trade policy following SCOTUS striking down IEEPA tariffs. 15% global tariff (Section 122) now in force. Markets pricing in uncertainty. | Retailers, Importers, Consumer Discretionary (BEARISH); Domestic Manufacturers (BULLISH) |
Stop Big Insurance Co payments | BEARISH for UNH, CVS, HUM, CI — Trump attacked insurance stock gains directly. Watch for gap-down opens in managed care names. | Health Care / Managed Care (BEARISH) |
Big Tech must provide own power | BULLISH for energy, power infra plays — utilities and data center power providers benefit. VSBL, VST, NRG, CEG watching closely. | Utilities, Power Infra (BULLISH) |
Ban investment firms buying homes | BEARISH for REITs and BlackRock/institutional real estate funds. First-time homebuilder stocks (DHI, LEN, PHM) may see mixed reaction — affordability push mixed with rate concerns. | REITs (BEARISH); Homebuilders (MIXED) |
Low interest rates solve housing | BULLISH pressure on Fed to cut — financial sector, mortgage companies, and housing stocks could benefit. Market pricing ~50% chance of June cut. | Financials, Homebuilders (BULLISH) |
STOP Insider Trading Act | Market NEUTRAL to slightly positive — retail sentiment boost. Compliance/legal software sector (VRSK) could see interest. | NEUTRAL / Minor Positive (Retail Sentiment) |
CATALYST RATING: MAJOR — The SOTU delivered meaningful policy signals across sectors. Net market overnight reaction: cautiously bullish as futures are green pre-market, suggesting markets are absorbing the SOTU without additional panic selling.
�� EARNINGS RECAP — AFTER HOURS FEB 24 & PRE-MARKET FEB 25
VERIFIED PRICES: Last close prices sourced from Yahoo Finance and Robinhood as of Feb 24, 2026 close.
Ticker | Feb 24 Close | AH Move | EPS (Act/Est) | Rev (Act/Est) | Guide | Key Notes |
NVDA EARNINGS — TONIGHT 4:20 PM ET (THE MARQUEE EVENT)
Last Close (Feb 24) | $193.44 — Source: Yahoo Finance, Feb 24 close |
Q4 EPS Consensus | $1.52–$1.53 per share (+71–72% YoY) |
Q4 Revenue Consensus | $65.6–65.7 Billion (+67% YoY) |
Implied Move | +/- 6% (approx. $11.60 range) |
Upside Target (Beat) | ~$205 (+6%) if strong beat & bullish guidance |
Downside Risk (Miss) | ~$182 (-6%) if miss or cautious guidance on Blackwell ramp |
Key Watch Item | Blackwell chip ramp demand, data center guidance, OpenAI/MSFT/META partnership commentary |
Hedge Funds | 149.3M net new shares bought Q4 — strong institutional conviction |
�� SECTOR LEADERSHIP & MONEY ROTATION
Pre-market sector performance (Feb 25, 2026 — TradingTerminal.com data, 6:46 AM ET):
SECTOR | 1D CHANGE | BIAS | KEY DRIVER |
Consumer Discretionary | ▲ +1.52% | BULLISH | SOTU affordability push, retail spending focus |
Technology | ▲ +1.30% | BULLISH | NVDA earnings catalyst, AMD-Meta GPU deal, ORCL upgrade |
Industrials | ▲ +1.23% | BULLISH | Defense AI tailwinds (AXON), infrastructure spending |
Utilities | ▲ +1.11% | BULLISH | Trump: Big Tech to provide own power — CEG, VST, NRG |
Consumer Staples | ▲ +0.87% | BULLISH | Defensive rotation, inflation easing narrative |
Materials | ▲ +0.76% | BULLISH | Infrastructure play + China-Germany cooperation |
Communication Services | ▲ +0.69% | BULLISH | MSFT, META, GOOGL AI narratives |
Financials | ▲ +0.49% | BULLISH | Fed rate cut hopes (50% June), CRCL fintech beat |
Real Estate | ▲ +0.28% | NEUTRAL | Trump housing push vs. investor ban uncertainty |
Energy | ▼ -0.09% | BEARISH | Oil oversupply, FSLR collapse, renewables fear |
Health Care | ▼ -0.42% | BEARISH | Trump attacking big insurance directly from SOTU podium |
�� HIGH-CONVICTION TRADE IDEAS — FEBRUARY 25, 2026
PRICE VERIFICATION NOTE: All prices sourced from Yahoo Finance, Robinhood, and Investing.com as of Feb 24 close / Feb 25 pre-market. Entry zones reflect pre-market conditions. Trade ideas are for educational purposes only. Always use proper risk management.
STOCK MARKET TRADES
Ticker | Entry Zone | Target | Stop | Bias | Rating | Notes |
AXON | $495–510 (gap-up open) | $545–560 (+7%) | $475 | BULL | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | MASSIVE earnings beat. $0.55 EPS beat. FY28 guides above. AH est. ~$510. Gap-up open expected. Sympathy: TASER, defense AI. Rating: 9/10 |
NVDA | $193–197 | $205–210 (+6%) IF beat | $183 stop | BULL/WAIT | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Reports TONIGHT 4:20PM. Implied move +/-6%. Do NOT chase before print. Buy dips post-earnings IF beat confirmed. Risk defined to $183. |
ORCL | $145–148 | $175–185 (+20%) | $138 stop | BULL | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Upgraded Oppenheimer Outperform, PT $185. OCI cloud demand + AI infra buildout. Longer-term swing. Rating: 8/10 |
CRCL | $64–68 | $78–85 (+18%) | $60 stop | BULL | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Circle Internet massive EPS beat ($0.43 vs $0.25). Crypto/fintech payment play. Rating: 8/10 |
CRM | $315–322 | $345–360 (+9%) | $305 stop | BULL | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Reports TONIGHT after close. IV elevated — high call/put skew (3.2:1 bullish). Wait for confirmation. |
TJX | $156–160 | $168–172 (+7%) | $152 stop | BULL | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Reports PRE-MARKET. Near $160 breakout. 40% rally from 52-week low. Consensus EPS $1.39. |
FSLR | SHORT $278–285 | $245–255 (-10%) | $298 stop | BEAR | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Massive miss + weak guide. Baird downgrade. Permitting delays + tariff headwinds. Gap-down expected. |
WDAY | SHORT $138–145 | $120–125 (-12%) | $155 stop | BEAR | ⭐⭐⭐ | Weak guide. SaaS disruption. Evercore ISI downgrade. Founder return = uncertainty premium. |
UNH/CVS | PUT / SHORT | UNH $270, CVS $53 | Tight stops | BEAR | ⭐⭐⭐ | Trump specifically attacked big insurance at SOTU. Political risk = sector headwind. |
VST/CEG | $93–97 / $260–270 | +8–12% | Tight | BULL | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Trump says Big Tech provides own power. Nuclear + gas utilities directly benefit. Strong catalyst. |
OPTIONS TRADE HIGHLIGHTS
Ticker | Strategy | Details | Catalyst / Notes |
NVDA | Strangle (options savvy) | Buy Mar 7 $200C + $180P — define risk both sides | Earnings tonight +/-6% implied. DO NOT play naked. Defined risk straddle/strangle only. High IV = expensive premium |
CRM | Call Debit Spread | Buy Mar 7 $320C / Sell $340C | IV 138 weekly = expensive. Defined risk spread reduces cost basis. Bullish earnings play. |
FSLR | Put Spread | Buy Mar 7 $270P / Sell $250P | Confirmed earnings miss + weak guidance. IV 133 weekly. Short energy solar thesis strong. |
AXON | Call (post confirmation) | Buy Mar $510C IF stock confirms above $500 on open | AH surge expected. Wait for gap-up confirmation before entering calls to avoid IV crush on open. |
₿ BITCOIN & CRYPTO MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Data sourced: CoinMarketCap & SoSoValue screenshots — approximately 5:45 AM UTC-6, Feb 25, 2026
Fear & Greed Index: 11 — EXTREME FEAR. Total Market Cap: $2.26–2.33T (+3.23–3.42%).
Asset | Price | 24H Change | 7D Change | Bias | Trade Notes |
BTC / Bitcoin | $65,407–65,423 | +3.51–3.52% | -3.19% | BULL | At extreme fear — bounce play. Key resistance $68K. Support $62.8K. Hits lowest RSI ever noted on CMC. |
ETH / Ethereum | $1,922 | ▲ +5.51–5.53% | -3.22% | BULL | ETH Foundation staking 70,000 ETH — positive signal. Break above $2,000 = momentum trigger. |
SOL / Solana | $82.99 | ▲ +8.26–8.29% | -0.48% | BULL | HOTTEST sector — Solana Ecosystem +7.99% (SoSoValue). Strong relative strength vs BTC. |
XRP | $1.38 | ▲ +3.75–3.76% | -6.02% | BULL | Regulatory clarity still driving institutional interest. Watch $1.50 resistance. |
BNB | $604.21–604.29 | ▲ +3.02–3.04% | -1.91% | NEUTRAL | Stable ecosystem coin. Support at $580. Monitor BSC ecosystem strength +3.02%. |
LINK / Chainlink | $8.65 | ▲ +5.75% | -N/A | BULL | Base Ecosystem +11.08% sector mover. LINK beneficiary of DeFi activity surge. |
DOGE / Dogecoin | $0.09411 | ▲ +3.29% | -N/A | NEUTRAL | Meme coin sector activity (MEME.ssi +1.74%). Watch for sentiment-driven pop. |
CRYPTO SECTOR MOVERS (SoSoValue Data)
Sector | 24H Change | Bias | Trade Opportunity |
Base Ecosystem | ▲ +11.08% | HOTTEST | Buy dips on Base-native tokens — Coinbase narrative play |
Solana Ecosystem | ▲ +7.99% | BULL | SOL leading alts — look at BONK, RAY, JUP for momentum |
Tokenized Stocks | ▲ +4.15% | BULL | OmTree SEC approval for tokenized fund trading — RWA narrative active |
ETF Candidates | ▲ +4.19% | BULL | ETF approvals driving alt sentiment higher |
CeFi | ▲ +3.39% | BULL | Circle (CRCL) massive beat = CeFi sentiment boost |
StableCoin | ▼ -0.01% | NEUTRAL | Flight to safety subsiding — bullish sign for risk assets |
AI | ▲ +8.08% | BULL | Broadest sector winner — NVDA earnings sync |
SocialFi | ▼ -2.16% | BEAR | Underperforming — avoid for now |
CRYPTO TRADE WATCH: Extreme Fear at 11 historically signals capitulation bounce territory. BTC rebounding from ~$62.8K low. SOL showing strongest relative strength. ETH Foundation staking 70K ETH is a bullish supply signal.
�� ECONOMIC CALENDAR — WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 25, 2026
Time (ET) | Event | Impact | Market Expectation |
7:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb/20) | MODERATE | Watch for housing demand signal — Trump low-rate push narrative |
7:00 AM | MBA Purchase Index / 30-Yr Rate | MODERATE | Key housing market health indicator — rate sensitivity |
8:35 AM | Fed Speaker: Barkin (Non-Voter) | LOW-MOD | Market will monitor tone on inflation / rate cut timeline |
10:00 AM | New Home Sales (January) | HIGH | Key housing data — aligns with Trump affordability narrative. Market moves on this. |
10:30 AM | EIA Petroleum Status Report | MODERATE | Oil inventory data — energy sector move |
10:30 AM | EIA Gasoline / Cushing / Crude Stocks | MODERATE | Crude inventory shifts could move XOM, CVX, energy ETFs |
11:00 AM | Fed Speaker: Schmid (Non-Voter) | LOW | Non-voter — less market impact |
11:30 AM | 2-Year FRN Note Auction | LOW-MOD | Watch for demand signal at short-end of curve |
1:00 PM | 5-Year Note Auction | MODERATE | Bond market appetite test — impacts yield curve / rate expectations |
1:20 PM | Fed Speaker: Musalem (Non-Voter) | LOW | Monitor tone |
4:20 PM | NVDA Q4 FY2026 Earnings | EXTREME | THE event of the week. Entire tech/AI sector direction determined here. |
4:20 PM | CRM (Salesforce) Q4 Earnings | HIGH | Second major earnings — cloud/SaaS sentiment after WDAY weakness |
5:00 PM | NVDA Earnings Call | EXTREME | Jensen Huang guidance language will move markets for days |
�� UPCOMING EARNINGS CALENDAR — WEEK OF FEB 25–28, 2026
Day | Ticker | Time | Est. EPS | Why It Matters |
WED | NVDA | AH 4:20PM | $1.52–1.53 | AI supercycle bellwether — entire tech sector moves on this |
WED | CRM | AH | ~$2.26 | SaaS sentiment + Agentforce AI product guidance |
WED | TJX | Pre-Mkt | $1.39 | Retail consumer health barometer — breakout watch at $160 |
WED | LOW | Pre-Mkt | ~$1.94 | Home improvement sector — FY27 guide key |
WED | SNOW | AH | TBD | Cloud/data analytics — IV 166% weekly |
THU | COST | Pre-Mkt | ~$4.10 | Consumer staple giant — membership fee trends |
THU | DELL | AH | TBD | PC + AI server demand — sympathy to NVDA |
FRI | Various | — | — | Post-NVDA sentiment carries into Friday. Watch AI names. |
SYMPATHY PLAYS ON AXON BEAT: Names to watch for gap-up sympathy — TASER peer defense tech, ANET (Arista Networks — Evercore noted AMD-Meta positivity), DRS (Leonardo DRS), KRATOS. Monitor premarket for follow-through.
⚖️ BULLISH vs BEARISH SECTOR BREAKDOWN
BULLISH SECTORS Technology (NVDA catalyst tonight) Defense / AI Tech (AXON +16% AH) Utilities / Power Infra (Trump Big Tech power) Consumer Discretionary (SOTU affordability push) Industrials (infrastructure + defense AI) Fintech / Crypto Payments (CRCL beat) Taiwan Semis — TSM ($385.75) biggest 1-day buy in 20 years Japan / Global Markets — Nikkei nearing 60K | BEARISH SECTORS Health Care / Managed Care (Trump SOTU attack) Solar / Clean Energy (FSLR disaster -14%) SaaS Software (WDAY weak guide, AI disruption) Energy (oil oversupply, FSLR collapse) REITs (Trump ban on investment firm home buying) Home Improvement (LOW weak FY27 EPS guide) Tariff-sensitive Importers (15% global tariff effect) |
�� MONEY ROTATION ANALYSIS
ROTATION THEME: Money is rotating FROM defensive SaaS software & clean energy INTO defense AI, data center infrastructure, domestic power utilities, and crypto as sentiment stabilizes.
ROTATING OUT OF | → | ROTATING INTO | CATALYST |
Traditional SaaS (WDAY, CRM cautious) | → | Defense AI / Public Safety Tech (AXON) | Earnings divergence |
Clean Energy Solar (FSLR) | → | Nuclear / Gas Utilities (VST, CEG, NRG) | Trump Big Tech power mandate |
Big Health Insurance (UNH, CVS) | → | Health Tech / Pharma (LLY, NVO) | SOTU policy attack |
Retail REITs | → | Homebuilders (DHI, LEN, PHM) | Trump affordability push + rate cut hope |
Cash / Short USD | → | AI Chips / Semis (NVDA, TSM, AMD) | NVDA earnings catalyst |
Bitcoin (fear selling) | → | SOL, ETH, Base Ecosystem tokens | Crypto fear capitulation bounce |
�� MASTERMIND & SOCIAL INSIGHTS
Key insights extracted from DCG chat logs, Discord, X (Twitter) feeds — pre-market February 25, 2026:
Source | Insight |
ICT (Inner Circle Trader) | Market in consolidation mode — 'nothing of interest for today.' Watch for expansion break. Low probability environment before NVDA print. Discipline is the edge. |
Palmer / BankTheTrade | AXON +$70 AH confirmed. NVDA earnings day reminder. LOW guides cautiously. Watch FSLR short thesis developing. |
Shay Boloor | MSFT ~30% drawdown but business fundamentals intact. $17B/month operating profit by 2028 target. Near decade-low multiple. Long-term accumulation thesis strong. |
ZoZoTrader | ORCL upgraded Oppenheimer Outperform $185 PT from $146 — significant asymmetry. Oracle AI/cloud buildout story strengthening. |
Jesse Cohen (Investing.com) | NVDA implied move +/-6%. Q4 EPS est. $1.52. Q4 Revenue est. $65.6B. Earnings call at 5PM ET. Full event breakdown in newsletter above. |
Mike Zaccardi CFA | SPY +0.2% premarket. Gold, silver, BTC all up. Nikkei nearing 60K — Japan bull market raging. Global funds lead biggest one-day Taiwan stock buy in 20 years — TSM directly benefits. |
Investing.com Breaking | Stripe considering acquisition of PYPL (all or parts). COREWEAVE $CRWV raising $8.5B chip-backed debt. PARAMOUNT increased to $31/WBD share in cash. |
The Long Investor | '78% of retail investors fail — they default back to fear when punched in the jaw and become liquidity.' Stay disciplined with your process. The DCG community trades with structure, not emotion. |
�� BREAKING NEWS (AFTER 3 AM CST, FEB 25) — OVERWHELMINGLY POSITIVE
Positive catalysts released after 3:00 AM CST on February 25, 2026:
• AXON $442.51 → AH +$70 (+16%): Q4 EPS $2.15 vs $1.60 est. Revenue $796.7M vs $755.6M. FY26 & FY28 guides above consensus. Largest single-day post-earnings gap expected. [MAJOR CATALYST]
• CRCL (Circle Internet) AH +$5 (+8%): Q4 EPS $0.43 vs $0.25 consensus (+72% beat). Revenue $770.2M vs $744.95M. Crypto fintech leader. [MAJOR CATALYST]
• ORCL UPGRADED: Oppenheimer upgrades Oracle to Outperform with $185 PT from current ~$146 (+27% upside). OCI cloud + AI infra. [MODERATE BULLISH]
• STRIPE EYEING PAYPAL ($PYPL): Stripe considering acquisition of all or parts of PayPal. PYPL could gap significantly on open. [MAJOR CATALYST — WATCH PYPL]
• COREWEAVE ($CRWV) $8.5B chip-backed debt raise: Massive AI infrastructure capital raise signals continued AI capex supercycle. NVDA beneficiary. [MAJOR BULLISH FOR AI SECTOR]
• Global Taiwan stock fund buying — biggest 1-day in 20 years: EWT +1.4%, EWY +2.6%, EEM +0.8% premarket. TSM at $385.75. [MODERATE BULLISH — GLOBAL AI INFRA]
• BTC rebounds to $65,423 (+3.52%): SOL +8.29%, ETH +5.51%. Total market cap +3.23–3.42%. Extreme Fear capitulation bounce in progress. [MODERATE BULLISH CRYPTO]
• OmTree receives SEC approval for Tokenized Fund Trading: RWA/tokenized stock narrative receiving regulatory momentum. [MODERATE BULLISH CRYPTO/FINTECH]
• S&P 500 ES Futures +0.24% at 6,920: All major indices in green pre-market. VIX declining. [BULLISH MARKET OPEN SIGNAL]
��️ OVERALL MARKET STRATEGY — FEB 25, 2026
OVERALL BIAS | CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — Futures green, AXON massive beat, crypto recovering, NVDA catalyst tonight. Manage size before NVDA earnings. |
PRE-OPEN STRATEGY | Focus on AXON gap-up confirmation play, FSLR short setup, CRCL momentum. Avoid overexposure before NVDA print at 4:20 PM ET. |
NVDA EARNINGS PLAY | Wait for print. If beat + strong guidance: Buy SPY/QQQ calls, NVDA calls, AMD/ANET/TSM sympathy longs. If miss: Puts on SPY/QQQ, short tech laggards. |
TOP SECTOR TO OWN | Defense AI (AXON), Power Utilities (VST/CEG), Fintech (CRCL), AI Infrastructure (NVDA/ORCL/TSM) |
TOP SECTOR TO SHORT | Health Insurance (UNH/CVS), Solar Energy (FSLR), Traditional SaaS (WDAY) |
CRYPTO PLAY | SOL > ETH > BTC in strength order. Base Ecosystem tokens riding Coinbase wave. Extreme Fear = opportunity for disciplined buyers. |
RISK MANAGEMENT | Reduce size heading into close due to NVDA + CRM dual earnings. Hold overnight ONLY with defined risk (options spreads). NVDA single stock +/-6% swing expected. |
HOLD/SELL OVERNIGHT? | AXON longs: HOLD (fundamental catalyst). FSLR shorts: HOLD. NVDA: NO OVERNIGHT unless defined options. General market: Small/hedged OK. |
���� TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES — SOTU POLICY PLAYS
Dir. | Ticker | Policy | Reason | Action |
BULL | VST/CEG/NRG | Big Tech Power | Trump mandates Big Tech provide own power — nuclear/gas utility companies are direct beneficiaries | Buy dips on VST, CEG, NRG |
BULL | DHI/LEN | Affordable Housing | Low interest rates + housing crisis narrative = homebuilder tailwinds if rates cut | Accumulate on dips |
BULL | VRSK | STOP Insider Trading Act | Compliance and risk analytics firms benefit from new legislation | Speculative buy |
BEAR | UNH/CVS/HUM | Insurance Attack | Trump explicitly targeted big insurance at SOTU — political and regulatory pressure | Put spreads / short |
BEAR | FSLR/ENPH | Energy Policy | Solar uncertainty + trade policy = headwinds for clean energy | Short / put spreads |
BULL | DJT / Media | Trump Accounts | New retirement account proposal could benefit Trump-aligned financial products | Speculative watch |
BEAR | ChinaEV/Importers | 15% Global Tariff | Section 122 tariff = headwind for import-heavy sectors | Avoid or short |
�� SEASONALITY & MARKET PATTERN RECAP
SEASONALITY NOTE: February end-of-month tends to see institutional rebalancing. Post-SOTU historically the Dow averages -0.03% the following day, but Trump's first-term SOTU was followed by +1.7% Dow. Given green futures and multiple positive catalysts (AXON, CRCL, crypto bounce), bias is toward positive SOTU follow-through this cycle.
VIX at 19.48 declining (from 24+ earlier in Feb) — fear subsiding. S&P 500 YTD performance shows IWM leading (+22.25% 1Y), QQQ (+18.42% 1Y), SPY (+15.67% 1Y) — broad market in healthy uptrend despite volatility.
MARKET THEME RECAP: The February 2026 narrative has been defined by three forces: (1) AI Infrastructure Supercycle — NVDA, AMD, TSM, COREWEAVE leading; (2) Trump Policy Volatility — tariff ping-pong after SCOTUS ruling; (3) Crypto Extreme Fear Capitulation — BTC from $80K+ to $62.8K and bouncing. NVDA earnings tonight is the single largest known catalyst remaining for the month.
�� HOTTEST SECTOR RIGHT NOW: DEFENSE AI / PUBLIC SAFETY TECHNOLOGY
SECTOR LEADER: Defense AI & Public Safety Technology
WHY DEFENSE AI IS THE HOTTEST SECTOR TONIGHT: AXON Enterprise reported a massive Q4 beat after hours — EPS $2.15 vs $1.60 est (+$0.55, +34% beat). Revenue $796.7M vs $755.6M (+5.4% beat). Management guided FY26 and FY28 revenue above consensus. The stock surged approximately +$70 in AH trading from its $438.84 close. This is not just an AXON story — it represents accelerating demand for AI-powered law enforcement, body cameras, tasers, and public safety technology. With the Trump administration's 'War on Fraud' initiative (VP Vance leading), defense/public safety AI spending is in a multi-year acceleration phase. SYMPATHY NAMES TO WATCH: Defense tech companies with AI exposure, cybersecurity names, government contracts businesses. |
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This is how professionals plan their year. Now it's yours.
�� ACCESS YOUR 2026 FORECAST HERE
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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is produced by DCG Command Center for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. Nothing in this publication constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other form of professional financial guidance. All trade ideas carry risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions. Prices verified as of February 24, 2026 close / February 25, 2026 pre-market from Yahoo Finance, Robinhood, CoinMarketCap, and TradingTerminal.com.
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