🔥 MARKETS SURGE AS FED ENDS QT: Bitcoin Battles $87K While Tech Giants Set New Highs - Your December 2nd Trading Game Plan

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📊 CRITICAL INTEL: What You MUST Know Before The Bell

BREAKING OVERNIGHT:

• ✅ Federal Reserve officially ENDS Quantitative Tightening as of December 1st - $2.4T liquidity withdrawal complete

• 🚨 Trump announces major statement at 2:00 PM ET - Markets bracing for volatility

• 💥 MongoDB (MDB) EXPLODES +24% after hours on massive earnings beat ($1.32 vs $0.81 est)

• ⚡ S&P 500 Futures trading at 6,842 (+0.23%), setting up for recovery session

• 🔴 Bitcoin stabilizes at $87,000 after brutal Monday selloff (-6%)

FED RATE CUT ODDS: 87.6% probability of December 10th cut (CME FedWatch)

🎯 S&P 500 FUTURES ($ES) KEY LEVELS

Current Price: 6,842.50 (+15.75, +0.23%)

🔺 RESISTANCE ZONES:

• H3 Short Breakout: 6,864.50 (immediate resistance)

• H4 Long Breakout: 6,880.00 (critical bull trigger)

• H5 LR Target: 6,900.00 (psychological level)

🔻 SUPPORT ZONES:

• L4 Short: 6,800.00 (Monday's bounce zone)

• L5 SR Target: 6,787.00 (critical support)

• L3 SR Breakout: 6,760.00 (failure level)

STRATEGY: Bulls need to reclaim 6,850 to negate Monday's weakness. Watch for Trump announcement at 2PM for volatility spike.

🔥 HOT CATALYST TRADES FOR DECEMBER 2ND

#1 MOMENTUM PLAY: MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rating: 10/10 - EXPLOSIVE BREAKOUT

MongoDB reported Q3 EPS of $1.32, beating analyst estimates of $0.81 by $0.51, with revenue of $628.3M versus consensus of $593.78M Investing.com.

📈 VERIFIED PRICING:

• Pre-Market: ~$400+ (up from $328.87 close)

• Monday Close: $328.87

• Move: +24% after-hours surge

TRADE SETUP:

• Entry Zone: $390-$410 on pullback (gapped from $329)

• Target 1: $425 (+6% from $400 baseline)

• Target 2: $450 (+12.5%)

• Stop Loss: Below $375

CATALYST: MongoDB raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.43B-$2.44B versus previous analyst consensus of $2.00B Investing.com. New CEO CJ Desai taking helm with immediate momentum.

SYMPATHY PLAYS:

• Cloudflare (NET) - also upgraded by Barclays

• Datadog (DDOG) - database sector strength

• Elastic (ESTC) - observability space

#2 EARNINGS WILDCARD: CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rating: 9/10 - HIGH VOLATILITY EVENT

📈 VERIFIED PRICING:

• Current: $505.68 (pre-market)

• Monday Close: $509.16

• 52-Week Range: $100-$550

EARNINGS: Today after close (Dec 2, 5:00 PM ET)

EXPECTATIONS:

• EPS Estimate: $0.59-$0.94 (consensus varies)

• Revenue Est: $1.22B (+20.3% YoY)

TRADE SETUP:

• Bull Scenario: Beat + strong guidance → Target $540-$560 (+8-10%)

• Bear Scenario: Miss or soft guidance → Support at $475-$480

• IV Crush: Options pricing 8-12% move

KEY METRICS TO WATCH:

• Falcon Flex customer count (>1,000 currently)

• Next-Gen SIEM ARR growth (95% YoY in Q2)

• Annual Recurring Revenue guidance

STRATEGY: For swing traders, wait for post-earnings settlement Wednesday. Day traders can play momentum into close.

#3 INFRASTRUCTURE PLAY: Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rating: 8/10 - ENTERPRISE STRENGTH

Broadcom and ING announced they have extended collaboration to update ING's private cloud infrastructure Bloomberg.

CURRENT LEVEL: Check latest pricing for entry

WHY NOW:

• Enterprise cloud spending accelerating

• AI infrastructure buildout continues

• Q4 typically strong for enterprise deals

🌐 CRYPTO MARKET BREAKDOWN

Bitcoin (BTC): The $86K Battleground

📉 VERIFIED CURRENT PRICE: Bitcoin is trading around $87,000 as of December 2, 2025, hovering in the $86,500-$87,200 range after dipping below $84,000 earlier in the day TS2.

CRITICAL LEVELS:

• Support Zone: $86,000 (must hold)

• Secondary Support: $83,000-$85,000 (high liquidity zone)

• Resistance: $91,000-$93,000 (rebound target)

• Major Resistance: $97,100 (bull invalidation level)

WHAT HAPPENED: Bitcoin dropped sharply at the start of December from over $90,000 to around $86,000 due to low liquidity and automated long liquidations as algorithms reset for the new month Coinpedia.

MACRO CATALYST: The Federal Reserve officially ended Quantitative Tightening on December 1, 2025, freezing its balance sheet at $6.57 trillion after draining $2.39 trillion from the system BeInCrypto.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT: Analysts compare this to August 2019 when the Fed ended QT and altcoins bottomed, suggesting potential for a major crypto rally BeInCrypto.

TRADING STRATEGY:

• Bulls: Need reclaim above $88K to confirm reversal

• Bears: Failure below $86K opens $83-85K zone

• Swing Trade: Wait for weekly close above $90K

ALTCOIN WATCH:

• Ethereum (ETH): $2,823 (down 3.41%)

• Solana (SOL): $128.54 (down 5.92%)

• XRP: Fighting resistance, RLUSD approval pending

• Cardano (ADA): Added to Franklin Crypto Index ETF (EZPZ)

💼 SECTOR ROTATION ANALYSIS

✅ BULLISH SECTORS (Money Flowing IN):

1. ENERGY 📈 +0.96%

• Oil prices stabilizing, winter demand increasing

• Top Pick: XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR)

2. TECHNOLOGY (SELECT) 📈 +0.05%

• AI infrastructure spending continues

• Database/cybersecurity strength

• Leaders: MDB, NET, CRWD

3. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 📈 +0.06%

• Cyber Monday sales up 4.5% YoY through 6:30 PM ET to $9.1 billion according to Adobe Investing.com

• Holiday shopping momentum building

❌ BEARISH SECTORS (Money Flowing OUT):

1. REAL ESTATE 📉 -1.39%

• Interest rate sensitivity persists

• Commercial office weakness

2. INDUSTRIALS 📉 -1.46%

• Manufacturing data soft

3. UTILITIES 📉 -2.34%

• Defensive rotation reversing

🏛️ TRUMP TRADING & POLITICAL EDGE

🚨 MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT AT 2:00 PM ET TODAY

President Trump announced he will be making a big announcement at 2:00 PM ET on Tuesday Bloomberg.

SPECULATION:

• Potential Fed Chair nomination (Kevin Hassett rumors)

• Trade policy updates

• Economic policy announcement

MARKET POSITIONING:

• VIX down pre-market, suggesting calm ahead

• Traders positioning for volatility around 2PM

• Options activity elevated

TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES:

• Defense contractors (potential Space Command news)

• Domestic manufacturing (tariff policy)

• Energy independence plays

FED CHAIR SPECULATION:

Trump told reporters "I know who I'm going to pick as Fed chair. I will announce it soon," with prediction markets showing 66% probability that Kevin Hassett will be nominated Fortune.

MARKET IMPACT: Hassett seen as dovish, supportive of rate cuts → Bullish for risk assets

📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - DECEMBER 2ND

Key Reports:

• 8:55 AM ET: Redbook Sales

• 10:00 AM ET: JOLTS Job Openings (major market mover)

• 11:00 AM ET: Treasury Buyback Announcement

• 2:00 PM ET: Trump Announcement 🚨

WEDNESDAY PREVIEW:

• ADP Employment Report

• ISM Services PMI

• Fed Beige Book

💡 MASTER TRADING STRATEGIES FOR TODAY

PRE-MARKET GAME PLAN (7:00-9:30 AM ET):

1. Gap Fade Setup: If futures gap >0.5%, watch for fade into open

2. MDB Long Setup: Entry on first pullback $390-410 zone

3. Crypto Scalp: BTC bounce off $86K support with tight stops

REGULAR SESSION (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET):

1. Morning: Trade pre-JOLTS positioning (risk-on if expecting strength)

2. Midday: REDUCE SIZE before 2PM Trump announcement

3. Afternoon: Volatility trades around political catalyst

4. Close: Position for CRWD earnings (options or stay flat)

AFTER HOURS:

1. CRWD Earnings: Wait 15 minutes for volatility to settle

2. Sympathy Plays: NET, PANW, ZS react to CRWD results

3. Futures: Watch overnight action on any Trump bombshells

📊 MONEY ROTATION & FLOW ANALYSIS

WHERE SMART MONEY IS MOVING:

With the Fed ending QT, $13.5 billion was injected into the banking system through overnight repos on December 2nd, the second-largest liquidity injection since COVID BeInCryptoInvestx.

ROTATION THEMES:

• ✅ OUT of: Defensive sectors, Gold (-1.2%), Low-vol stocks

• ✅ INTO: Growth tech, Select cyclicals, Risk assets

• ⚠️ WATCH: Treasury yields (10Y at 4.08%, up 7bp Monday)

SMALL CAP SIGNAL: Small-cap earnings growth now positive and expected to eclipse large-cap earnings growth in 2H25 and 2026, with IWM showing +0.6% pre-market strength.

🎲 HIGH-CONVICTION TRADE IDEAS

SCALP TRADE: S&P 500 Futures

• Setup: Buy dips to 6,825-6,830

• Target: 6,855-6,860

• Stop: 6,815

• Time Frame: Intraday only

• Confidence: 7/10

SWING TRADE: Technology Basket

• Tickers: MDB (20%), NET (15%), AVGO (15%), Rest in QQQ

• Hold: 3-5 days

• Target: +5-8%

• Stop: -3% portfolio level

• Confidence: 8/10

CRYPTO SCALP: Bitcoin

• Entry: $86,000-$86,500

• Target: $88,500 (+2.9%)

• Stop: $85,500

• Size: 25% of crypto allocation

• Confidence: 6/10 (volatile)

📈 OPTIONS FLOW HIGHLIGHTS

UNUSUAL ACTIVITY DETECTED:

1. SPY: Heavy call buying at $680 strike (Dec 6 expiry)

2. CRWD: Straddles indicating 8-12% expected move

3. MDB: Jan 2026 $450 calls seeing accumulation

4. QQQ: Put/call ratio elevated (defensive hedging)

🌟 TRADE HIGHLIGHTS FROM EACH MARKET

STOCKS:

• Winner: MDB +24% AH (earnings explosion)

• Loser: Bitcoin miners down on BTC weakness

• Watch: CRWD earnings today AH

OPTIONS:

• Hot: MDB call spreads for continued momentum

• Defensive: SPY weekly puts as Trump hedge

• Earnings: CRWD iron condors (high IV)

FUTURES:

• ES: Fighting for 6,850 reclaim

• NQ: Tech strength leading

• YM: Dow lagging, industrials weak

CRYPTO:

• BTC: Make-or-break at $86K

• Alts: Waiting for BTC direction

• Theme: QT ending = potential liquidity surge

🎓 MASTERMIND GUIDANCE: Key Takeaways

From The Trading Desk:

1. FED QT END = BULLISH LIQUIDITY: Historical precedent (2019) shows this often marks crypto/alt bottoms

2. EARNINGS SEASON HEATING UP: MDB blowout sets tone - quality beats getting rewarded

3. TRUMP CATALYST AT 2PM: Size down before announcement, be ready for volatility

4. BITCOIN CRITICAL ZONE: $86K is the line in sand - hold = rally potential, break = $83-85K test

5. TECH SELECTIVITY: Not all tech equal - database/cyber/AI infrastructure outperforming

⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT REMINDER:

• Don't chase MDB gap up - wait for pullback

• Use stops religiously in this volatility

• Keep powder dry for post-2PM opportunities

• CRWD earnings = high risk, size accordingly

🔮 OUTLOOK: Rest of Week

WEDNESDAY: ADP Jobs, ISM Services - positioning for Friday NFP

THURSDAY: Trade data, continuing claims

FRIDAY: Non-Farm Payrolls - BIG VOLATILITY expected

NEXT WEEK: Fed meeting Dec 9-10 (rate cut decision)

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📱 FINAL CHECKLIST FOR TODAY

✅ Set alerts for S&P 6,850 breakout
✅ Watch JOLTS at 10AM for market direction
✅ Size down portfolio by 1:45 PM (Trump announcement)
✅ MDB - wait for first pullback, don't chase gap
✅ CRWD - decide pre-earnings: play it or sit out
✅ BTC - watch $86K level for crypto direction
✅ Check futures at 2:30 PM after Trump speaks
✅ Position for CRWD earnings reaction (AH)

⚖️ DISCLAIMER

This newsletter provides market analysis and trading ideas for educational purposes. All trading involves substantial risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The authors may hold positions in securities discussed. Always conduct your own research and consult with licensed financial advisors before making investment decisions. Prices and data verified as of 6:30 AM ET December 2, 2025.

🔔 REMEMBER: December is historically the 3rd best month for S&P 500 (+1% average). Santa Rally potential exists BUT respect the volatility. Trade smart, not hard.

Next Update: Wednesday Pre-Market Brief
Follow: DCG Command Center for real-time market intelligence

Market data sources: CME, Bloomberg, Reuters, TradingView, CoinMarketCap | Compiled by DCG Analysis Team

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