UBS forecasts $3,500 gold price in 2025, rally to extend into 2026

🔍 Premarket Insights & SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT

📈 Market Overview (As of Premarket)

• S&P Futures (ES_F): Currently fluctuating around 5315, bouncing off key support at AVWAP 5165. Overnight high at 5380. Holding above this VWAP level keeps the 5420–5500 bullish breakout zone in play.

• Volatility Index (VIX): Still elevated, indicating traders are hedging into weekend uncertainty.

• PPI Data Surprise: US March PPI YoY came in at 2.7% vs 3.3% expected – a massive deflationary signal, igniting a risk-on sentiment. Core PPI also beat expectations.

🌐 Macro & Global Developments

• China’s Tariff Retaliation: China raised tariffs on US goods to 125% from 84%, spiking trade tensions. Trump may address it later today.

• Currency Shift: USD dumped to decade lows vs CHF; Euro surged above $1.14.

• Gold: Surging above $3,200; UBS upgraded forecast to $3,500/oz.

🗓️ Economic Events (All Times ET)

• 8:30 AM: Producer Price Index (PPI) for March; expected to increase by 0.2%. ​Forex Trading Charts+4Investopedia+4MarketWatch+4

• 10:00 AM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) for April; expected to decline further. ​Forex Trading Charts+1Investopedia+1

• Fed Speakers:

  • 9:00 AM: Boston Fed President Susan Collins​MarketWatch+1Investopedia+1

  • 10:00 AM: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem​MarketWatch

  • 11:00 AM: New York Fed President John Williams​Investopedia+13MarketWatch+13Investopedia+13

💼 Earnings Reports

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Reported Q1 EPS of $5.07 on $45.31 billion revenue, surpassing forecasts. ​Reuters+2Investopedia+2Barron's+2

• Wells Fargo (WFC): Reported higher profits, with stock gaining 1.2% in premarket trading. ​Barron's

• BlackRock (BLK): Reported strong Q1 earnings of $11.30 per share, with assets under management reaching a record $11.58 trillion. ​Barron's

• Morgan Stanley (MS): Set to report before the market opens. ​Reuters

🔍 Top Premarket Movers

Gainers:

• Bon Natural Life Limited (BON): +75.45%​StockAnalysis

• Sharps Technology, Inc. (STSS): +43.72%​StockAnalysis

• Sight Sciences, Inc. (SGHT): +32.30%​StockAnalysis

Losers:

• Texas Instruments (TXN): -4.8%​Investor's Business Daily+24Barron's+24Reuters+24

• McCormick & Co. (MKC): -4.3%

🔥 TOP 3 TRADING IDEALS (With Volume, Catalyst & Momentum)

1. JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

• Type: Day Trade

• Current Price: $227.11 (+7%)

• Sector: Financials

• Sentiment: Bullish → Earnings beat + strong equity markets

• Setup: Breakout w/ earnings catalyst

• Entry: $226.50

• Target: $235

• Stop Loss: $221

• Strike/Expiry: May $230 Calls

• Volume: 2.4x avg

• Short Interest: Low

• Catalyst: Q1 EPS $5.07 vs $4.63 expected; Equities revenue +48%

• Trump Impact: Policy uncertainty drives trading activity boost

• Rating: 9.1/10

• Profitability Days: 1-3

• Recommendation: ✅

• Pros: Big earnings beat, volume surge

• Cons: Broader market turbulence

2. ARGX (Argenx SE)

• Type: Swing Trade

• Current Price: $410.00 (+9%)

• Sector: Healthcare / Biotech

• Sentiment: Bullish → FDA fast track + FDA shifting to AI testing models

• Setup: Accumulation zone breakout

• Entry: $408

• Target: $430 short-term, $460 swing

• Stop Loss: $396

• Strike/Expiry: May $420 Calls

• Volume: 3.1x avg

• Short Interest: Moderate

• Catalyst: FDA self-injectable approval + AI medical model shift

• Trump Impact: Neutral

• Rating: 9.4/10

• Profitability Days: 2–7

• Recommendation: ✅

• Pros: Multi-layer catalyst, low institutional resistance

• Cons: Biotech sector can be volatile

3. NEM (Newmont Corp)

• Type: Swing/Day Trade

• Current Price: $54.50 (+3.6%)

• Sector: Gold Miners

• Sentiment: Bullish → Safe-haven demand

• Setup: Breakout continuation

• Entry: $53.90

• Target: $56.00–58.00

• Stop Loss: $52.30

• Strike/Expiry: May $55 Calls

• Volume: 2.7x avg

• Short Interest: Low

• Catalyst: UBS upgrade to “Buy”, Gold forecast raised

• Trump Impact: Tariffs → risk-off flows → gold bullish

• Rating: 9.0/10

• Profitability Days: 1–5

• Recommendation: ✅

• Pros: Strong correlation w/ gold surge

• Cons: Gold could reverse if tariffs cool

🪙 CRYPTOCURRENCY SNAPSHOT

💡 Crypto Trade Ideas:

• SOL momentum play above $120 → Target $130–135

• BTC day trade above $81.5K → Target $84.5K

🧵 SOCIAL CHATTER & TRADER SENTIMENT RECAP

🔥 High-Impact Mentions

• $JPM called out by multiple FinTwit traders after monster beat

• $UAL surging +26% off earnings anticipation and airline bets

• FDA AI Testing Ruling: $SLP, $CERT, $IPA, $RXRX, $VERV running hard

• Tech Rotation: $NVDA $GOOG $MSFT $PLTR showing MACD bullish crosses

• Trump Watch: Potential China retaliation comment @10:50 AM PST

⚠️ MOVING FORWARD – KEY WATCH POINTS

🔮 Bullish

• Strong PPI miss = rate cut pressure builds

• Earnings momentum (JPM, MS, BLK) fuels financial rally

• Crypto remains in bullish flow

• Gold near ATH with strong tailwinds

🧨 Bearish

• China tariffs raised to 125% (EV sector hit hard – $TSLA, $LI, $BYD)

• Fed speakers hint at higher-for-longer risks (Kashkari)

• Volatility remains elevated into weekend (VIX > 30)

🧠 Strategic Outlook

• Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic amid strong bank earnings and easing inflation concerns.​

• Risk Factors: Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and potential for increased market volatility.​

• Trading Strategy: Focus on high-quality setups with clear risk-reward profiles; consider hedging positions to manage potential volatility.

Subscribe to Upgraded Premium Reports