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DCG Weekly Trading Plan: March 17-21, 2025

MARKET OVERVIEW

Previous Week Recap (March 10-14, 2025)

• Monday: S&P 500 fell 2.7%, breaking below 200-day MA (first time since November 2023)

• Tuesday: Continued declines with new tariffs on Canadian steel/aluminum (50%)

• Wednesday: S&P 500 (+0.5%) and Nasdaq (+1.2%) rebounded led by NVDA and TSLA

• Thursday: S&P 500 entered correction territory (-10% from highs)

• Friday: Strong rally with S&P 500 (+2.1%) and Nasdaq (+2.6%)

Current Market Status March 17th 2025 Week

• Overall Market: Bearish with signs of oversold conditions

• Technical Posture: S&P 500 holding at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (5500); below 200-day MA

• VIX Level: Elevated but fading lower (0.98 VIX/VXV ratio) - potential intermediate bottom

• Sentiment: Extremely negative (contrarian bullish indicator)

  • AAII Bullish: 19.1% (near 2022 lows)

  • AAII Bearish: 59.2%

  • Bull-Bear Spread: -40.1%

  • Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear (21, up from 18)

Key Support/Resistance Levels

• Support:

  • 5500-5520 (61.8% Fib, put wall gamma support)

  • 5558-5560 (major)

  • 5536, 5528, 5521, 5513

  • 5502-5498 (critical must-hold zone)

• Resistance:

  • 5644, 5654 (major), 5659, 5666

  • 5703-5706 (major decision zone)

  • 5743, 5750, 5762, 5770-5772, 5798 (macro target)

WEEKLY OUTLOOK - CRITICAL TRADING EVENTS

Critical Events & Catalysts

1. Nvidia GTC Conference (March 17-21)

   • Jensen Huang keynote Tuesday 11:00 AM ET

   • Catalyst for entire AI ecosystem

   • Focus on Blackwell Ultra, Rubin, China sales updates

2. FOMC Meeting (March 18-19)

   • No rate change expected

   • Dot plot projections critical (current expectation: 2-3 cuts for 2025)

   • Powell press conference Wednesday 2:30 PM ET

3. Economic Data Releases

   • Monday: Retail Sales (flat expected)

   • Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production

   • Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Existing Home Sales

   • Friday: Triple Witching OPEX (historically bullish)

4. Key Earnings

   • Thursday: FedEx (FDX), Nike (NKE), Micron (MU), Lennar (LEN)

   • Friday: NIO, Carnival (CCL)

Sector Outlook

• Bullish Sectors (Probability: 70-75%)

  1. Energy (XLE) - SPR refill plans, OPEC cuts, relative strength (+2.6% last week)

  2. Utilities (XLU) - Defensive appeal, led last week (+1.9%)

  3. Technology - Selective AI names; Nvidia GTC catalyst

• Bearish Sectors (Probability: 65-70%)

  1. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) - Weak consumer sentiment (57.9), tariff pressures

  2. Retail (XRT) - Earnings misses (DKS, KSS), tariff cost pressures

  3. Chinese Equities (FXI, KWEB) - Hedge fund outflows, retaliatory tariffs

DAILY TRADING PLANS

Monday, March 17, 2025

Market Context

• First trading day after S&P 500 entered correction territory

• Focus on Retail Sales data (8:30 AM ET) as key consumer health indicator

• Nvidia GTC conference begins

Key Levels to Watch

• ES Support: 5615, 5599, 5558

• ES Resistance: 5644, 5654, 5659, 5666

• VIX: Watch for continued contraction below 18

Pre-Market Plan (7:00-9:00 AM ET)

1. Assess futures reaction to weekend news

2. Review technical levels and pre-market movers

3. Prepare trade setups for Retail Sales data reaction

Key Stocks to Watch

• Earnings Focus: NIU, PLX, QFIN, SAIC (pre-market); GETY, KODK (after close)

• Volatility Plays: TSLA, QBTS (high implied volatility)

• Conference Focus: NVDA, CRDO, SOUN, WULF (Nvidia GTC)

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Market Context

• Housing Starts data (8:30 AM ET)

• Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET)

• Nvidia GTC keynote (11:00 AM ET) - major catalyst

Nvidia Keynote Trading (10:30 AM - 1:00 PM ET)

• Pre-Keynote Position (Probability: 75%)

  • Trade Setup: NVDA long

  • (JOIN MASTERMIND FOR INTRADAY PLAY )
    Related AI Ecosystem Plays (Probability: 70%)

  • Candidates: AMD, MRVL, AVGO, QCOM

  • Entry: 30 minutes before keynote

  • Target: 3-5% upside

  • Position Size: 1% per position

Afternoon Session Plan (1:00 PM - 4:00 PM ET)

• If Keynote Exceeds Expectations: Add to AI ecosystem stocks showing strength

• If Keynote Disappoints: Exit NVDA quickly, rotate to defensive sectors

• Sector Specific: Semiconductor manufacturers (AMAT, LRCX, KLAC)

Key Stocks to Watch

• Earnings Focus: XPEV, HUYA, TME (pre-market); MRVI, ZTO (after close)

• Conference Focus: NVDA ecosystem stocks, SUI crypto catalyst

• Beastmode Play: CRWD calls over $356 (Prime Playbook)

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Market Context

• Fed decision day - the pivotal event of the week

• FOMC Rate Decision (2:00 PM ET)

• Powell Press Conference (2:30 PM ET)

Pre-Market Plan (7:00-9:00 AM ET)

1. Assess General Mills (GIS) earnings impact

2. Review pre-Fed market sentiment

3. Prepare for multiple Fed outcome scenarios

Fed Decision Trading (2:00 PM - 3:30 PM ET)

• Hawkish Fed Scenario (Fewer Rate Cuts) (Probability: 40%)

  • Financial sector longs: XLF, KRE, JPM, GS, MS

  • Short/put positions on rate-sensitive sectors: XLU, XLRE

  • Dollar strength plays: UUP calls, FXE puts

• Dovish Fed Scenario (More Rate Cuts) (Probability: 60%)

  • Rate-sensitive sector longs: XLU, XLRE, homebuilders

  • Gold and precious metals: GLD, SLV, GDX

  • Small cap exposure: IWM, IJR

Powell Press Conference Reaction (2:30 PM - 4:00 PM ET)

Key Stocks to Watch

• Earnings Focus: GIS, SIG, FIVE, OLLI (pre-market); SMCI, WS (after close)

• Fed-Sensitive Sectors: Financials, Utilities, REITs, Technology

• Rate Cut Beneficiaries: Homebuilders, Gold miners, Small caps

Thursday, March 20, 2025

Market Context

• Post-Fed trading day

• Economic data: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed (8:30 AM ET)

• Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET)

• Major earnings after close: FDX, NKE, MU, LEN

Pre-Market Plan (7:00-9:00 AM ET)

1. Assess Fed market reaction

2. Review jobless claims impact

3. Identify sectors showing post-Fed strength/weakness

Afternoon Session Plan (1:00 PM - 4:00 PM ET)

Key Stocks to Watch

• Economic Data Sensitive: Homebuilders (LEN, DHI, TOL, PHM)

• Earnings Preparations: FDX, MU, NKE, ACN, LEN

• Beastmode Play: ROST puts below $133.90 (DCG Plan)

Friday, March 21, 2025

Market Context

• Triple Witching OPEX (historically bullish)

• Fed's Williams speaks (9:05 AM ET)

• NIO, CCL earnings before market

Pre-Market Plan (7:00-9:00 AM ET)

1. Assess Thursday's earnings impact (NKE, FDX, MU)

2. Prepare for options expiration volatility

3. Review week's performance for sector trends

Morning Session Plan (9:30 AM - 12:00 PM ET)

Afternoon Session Plan (1:00 PM - 4:00 PM ET)

Key Stocks to Watch

• Earnings Reaction: NKE, FDX, MU, LEN (previous day)

• OPEX Focus: Heavily optioned names (AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, AMD)

• Beastmode Play: Long XOM June $115 Calls (Weekly Radar Report)

RISK MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES

Position Sizing

• Standard Trades: 2-3% of portfolio

• High Conviction Setups: Up to 3-4% of portfolio

• Speculative Trades: Maximum 1-2% of portfolio

• Event-Driven Trades (FOMC, Earnings): Reduce by 40-50%

Stop Loss Strategy

• Standard Trades: 5-7% from entry

• Volatile Stocks: 8-10% from entry

• Options Trades: 25-30% of premium paid

• Event-Driven: Tighter stops (3-5% from entry)

Profit Taking

• Take partial profits at 40-50% of target

• Scale out of winning positions in 1/3 increments

• Consider trailing stops on momentum moves

• Exit before 3:50 PM on Friday if not planning to hold through weekend

Contingency Planning

• If Market Shows Extreme Volatility: Reduce position sizes by 25%

• If Fed Decision Creates Major Surprise: Wait for volatility to settle

• If Housing Data Shows Weakness: Avoid homebuilder exposure

• If Nvidia Keynote Disappoints: Rotate to defensive sectors

Crypto Market Analysis & Trading Plan: March 17-21, 2025

Market Sentiment Overview

The crypto market is currently in a cautious state with the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index at 30 ("Fear"), down from 45 (Neutral) earlier this week. This indicates heightened investor concern following recent price volatility, but also suggests a potential sentiment bottom that could precede a reversal.

Bitcoin is trading at $83,777 (as of March 16), down 1.53% in 24 hours, while the broader crypto market shows mixed performance:

• ETH: $1,887.56 (-2.77%)

• SOL: $12.69 (-6.01%)

• BNB: $612.70 (-1.97%)

Key Market Drivers

Institutional Activity

• MicroStrategy's Major Move: Plans to issue $21B in stock to acquire 262,500 BTC, potentially holding 3.6% of total supply

• ETF Outflows: $945M outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs over five weeks indicate profit-taking

• El Salvador: Continued "buy the dip" strategy reinforces sovereign adoption

• Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: New House bill to establish a reserve using seized assets aligns with Trump's executive order

Whale Activity

• $380M Short Position: A large player has a 40x leveraged BTC short with liquidation at $86,600

• $40M ETH Short: 25x leveraged position with liquidation at $2,422, reportedly linked to an Ethereum founder wallet

• Market Manipulation Concerns: Recent $1,500 BTC pump appears targeted at the whale's liquidation level

Technical Factors

• BTC Support/Resistance: Support at $80,000, resistance at $85,000-$86,600

• Critical Level: Weekly close above $84,000 needed to avoid further downside

• Volatility Metrics: CVI at 59.79 (below 50-day MA of 61.83) suggests declining volatility

WEEKLY CHECKLIST
( Master Your Trading Execution Inside The Mastermind)

Morning Routine (Daily)

• Review overnight futures and international markets

• Check key economic data releases

• Identify pre-market movers and unusual activity

• Update support/resistance levels based on previous day

Evening Review (Daily)

• Analyze day's market action and sector rotation

• Review open positions and adjust stops if needed

• Prepare for next day's catalysts and opportunities

• Document lessons learned and successful patterns

Weekend Preparation

• Review weekly performance by sector

• Identify emerging themes for following week

• Update watchlists based on technical setups

• Prepare for Monday's key events

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