INSIDE TODAY'S MARKETS

• S&P Recovers After Early Sell-Off; Futures Signal Potential Rebound

• Gold Breaks $3,000 Milestone as Investors Seek Safety

• Defense Stock ESLT Surges 10% on Apparent Contract Win

TOMORROW'S CRITICAL CATALYSTS

• Fed Rate Decision: Markets Brace for Powell's Inflation Outlook

• Housing Data Could Determine Direction for Builders and Materials

• Ollie's Earnings to Test Retail Sector Resilience

TRADING OPPORTUNITIES

• JP Morgan Finds Support at Key Level After 20% Pullback

• Gold Miners and Energy Names Continue to Outperform

• Option Flow Signals Strong Bullish Sentiment in Healthcare

CRYPTO CORNER

• Bitcoin Holds $80,600 Support Despite 2.5% Pullback

• Rising Gold Correlation Suggests Potential Bounce Ahead

Market Overview (March 18, 2025)

The market showed weakness today, with most indices closing lower. The S&P 500 experienced an early sell-off with the VIX (volatility index) rising. Energy was the only positive sector during the morning session. In after-hours trading, there were signs of modest recovery with S&P 500 futures slightly up (+0.2%) as of 3:45 PM EST.

The Nasdaq was the weakest performer of the day, weighed down by technology and consumer groups after the previous Vixpiration day rally. After-hours trading showed some stabilization with QQQ futures trading flat.

The Dow Jones was mixed, with strength in industrial production offset by broader market caution. After-hours, Dow futures were up +0.1%.

Key Market Influences

1. Economic Data: February Industrial Production came in stronger than expected, providing some support to industrial stocks.

2. Bank of America's Fund Manager Survey: Showed the largest U.S. equity exposure pullback since 2020, signaling investor caution.

3. Commodities: Gold reached $3,000/oz, providing stability to related sectors.

4. International Factors: The market was watching China's consumer boost plans and the German spending package vote.

Sector Performance

Leaders:

• Natural Gas

• Energy

• REITs

Laggards:

• Solar

• Software

• Consumer Discretionary

Notable Stock Movements

Top Gainers:

• ESLT (Elbit Systems): +10% to $250, likely due to a defense contract win

• CNX: +4.5%

• RIVN (Rivian): +3.5% to $2.43, possibly on production news

• AU: +3.4%

• DB: +3.2%

• LNG: +3%

Top Losers:

• SRPT: -22%

• RDDT (Reddit): -12%

• CVNA (Carvana): -10.5%

• APP: -9%

• TEM: -9%

• AFRM: -8%

Options Activity Highlights

High Call Volume:

• LITE

• KRYS

• ALHC (Alignment Health): Significant activity with 5000 May $17.50 calls bought at $1.05

• CWH

• WELL

High Put Volume:

• FND

• FSK

• HSAI

• SHW

• NICE

• BEKE

Featured Trading Opportunities

Several stocks were highlighted with strong trade setups:

1. JPM (JP Morgan Chase): Trading at $234, pulled back 20% from recent highs and now basing on its 200-day MA. Significant bullish options activity with 1200 September $250 calls bought. The trade setup suggests an entry at $235, target of $244.40, with a stop at $231 (90% probability of success).

2. EA (Electronic Arts): Trading at $141.71, recovering from its January downturn. Substantial bullish options flow with buyers of 3500 May $150/$160 call spreads. The May $150/$160 call spreads were recommended as a good way to play upside.

3. MA (Mastercard): Trading at $527.71, at key support with significant put selling activity. The recommendation was for May $525/$515 put spreads sold for $3.75 or better.

Looking Ahead

Important events for tomorrow (March 19, 2025):

• Housing Starts and Building Permits data (8:30 AM ET)

• FOMC Rate Statement and press conference

• Earnings reports from GIS, OLLI, SIG, SRAD, FIVE, SMCI

Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin was trading at approximately $81,200, down 2.5% with support at $80,600. The options activity (2500 April $47 puts bought) suggested some caution, but the correlation with gold was seen as a positive factor for potential rebounds.

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