🚨 MARKET SHOCKWAVES: Trump's 100% Drug Tariffs & PCE Data Drive Friday's Action

Your Daily Edge in High-Probability Trading

Author

Willette Whitted
September 26, 2025

⚡ KEY THINGS TO KNOW FOR FRIDAY'S SESSION:

🔥 BREAKING CATALYST: Trump announces devastating 100% tariffs on branded pharmaceuticals effective October 1st, plus 25% on heavy trucks and 30% on furniture - market pivots IMMEDIATELY

📊 PCE DATA REACTION: Core PCE came in exactly at expectations at 2.9% YoY, while monthly readings of 0.2% suggest cooling inflation momentum - Fed dovish bets intact

💰 SECTOR ROTATION: Asian pharma stocks crushed -3% to -5%, while US pharma giants like Eli Lilly (+1.4%) and Pfizer benefit from protection tariffs

🎯 TRADING FOCUS: Domestic manufacturing beneficiaries, AI infrastructure plays, and crypto bouncing off key support levels

📈 MARKET SENTIMENT OVERVIEW

Current Market Status (Pre-Market 7:35 AM ET)

  • SPY: $658.05 (-0.46%) - Trading below $660 support level

  • Bitcoin: $109,156 (-2.06% from 24hr high) - Down 6% from week ago levels

  • VIX: 16.76 (+3.58%) - Fear creeping back into markets

📊 PCE INFLATION BREAKDOWN

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed core PCE at 2.9% annually, unchanged from July but with monthly gains of 0.2% - exactly in line with expectations. This supports continued dovish Fed policy with 88% odds of October rate cut still priced in.

🔥 TRUMP'S TARIFF BOMBSHELL - IMMEDIATE TRADING IMPACTS

💊 PHARMACEUTICAL SECTOR EXPLOSION

BULLISH US PHARMA:

  • Eli Lilly (LLY): Benefits from 100% tariff protection on branded drugs - major competitive advantage

  • Pfizer (PFE): Domestic manufacturing protections boost margins

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Already announced $55B investment in US manufacturing

BEARISH FOREIGN PHARMA:

  • Asian pharma devastated: Daiichi Sankyo (-2.11%), Sumitomo (-5.33%), Samsung Biologics (-1.71%)

  • European giants hit: Novartis, Roche down ~1.2%

🚛 HEAVY TRUCK TARIFF WINNERS

25% tariffs on foreign heavy trucks to protect "Peterbilt, Kenworth, Freightliner, Mack Trucks"

IMMEDIATE PLAYS:

  • PACCAR (PCAR): +~25% surge on heavy truck protection

  • Volvo Group (VOLVY): European competitor under pressure

🎯 HIGH-CONVICTION TRADING SETUPS

SECTOR 1: DOMESTIC PHARMACEUTICAL MANUFACTURING

Rating: 9.5/10 🔥

Primary Play - Eli Lilly (LLY)

  • Entry Zone: $1,400-$1,420 (current: ~$1,415)

  • Target 1: $1,500 (+6%)

  • Target 2: $1,600 (+13.2%)

  • Stop Loss: $1,350

  • Catalyst: Direct beneficiary of 100% pharma tariffs with existing US manufacturing

SECTOR 2: SEMICONDUCTOR INFRASTRUCTURE

Rating: 8.5/10

Intel (INTC) - Domestic Production Push

  • Current: ~$35.36 (+4.08% premarket)

  • Entry: $35.00-$36.00

  • Target: $42.00 (+20%)

  • Catalyst: Trump considering 1:1 domestic chip production requirements

SECTOR 3: CRYPTO OVERSOLD BOUNCE

Rating: 8.0/10

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Current: $109,156 - Down from $124K ATH

  • Entry Zone: $108K-$110K

  • Target: $118K (+8%)

  • Support: Major institutions still accumulating

📊 S&P FUTURES KEY LEVELS

ES Futures Critical Levels:

  • Resistance: 6,680-6,690 (yesterday's failed breakdown recovery)

  • Support: 6,631 (major low from yesterday's sweep)

  • Bullish Above: 6,700

  • Bearish Below: 6,600

🌍 GLOBAL MARKET IMPACTS

Asian Markets Hammered

  • Hang Seng -1.35%, CSI 300 -0.95% on pharma tariff fears

  • Japan's Nikkei pharmaceutical index leading declines

European Response

  • EU stressing existing 15% pharma tariff cap agreements remain in place

  • Switzerland and Singapore most exposed to new levies

💎 CRYPTO MARKET BREAKDOWN

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

  • Fear & Greed Index: 28 (Extreme Fear) - down from 44 yesterday

  • Key Support: $108K psychological level

  • Resistance: $116K (recent highs)

Altcoin Watch

  • Ethereum: $3,925 (-3.09%) - Following BTC weakness

  • Solana: $191 (-5.27%) - Major institutional deposit to Coinbase signals potential selling

📰 WHITE HOUSE & POLITICAL IMPACT

Latest Executive Actions

Trump signed executive order on TikTok deal September 25th, with Oracle, Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi's MGX as key investors

Trump Momentum Trades

  1. Oracle (ORCL): TikTok deal beneficiary

  2. Domestic Manufacturing ETFs: Tariff protection plays

  3. Energy Independence: Pipeline and drilling stocks

⚠️ RISK FACTORS TO WATCH

Downside Catalysts

  1. Retaliation Concerns: Trading partners may respond with counter-tariffs

  2. Consumer Price Impact: 100% pharma tariffs = higher drug costs

  3. Supply Chain Disruption: Manufacturing transition period volatility

Technical Concerns

  • SPY struggling below 200-day MA

  • Rising 10-year yields pressuring growth stocks

  • Dollar strength headwinds for commodities

🚀 ACTIONABLE TRADING PLAN FOR FRIDAY

Opening Strategy (9:30 AM)

  1. Watch ES futures gap behavior - Above 6,660 = bullish continuation

  2. Pharma sector leadership - LLY, PFE for long momentum

  3. Tech oversold bounce - NVDA, MSFT if broader market stabilizes

Midday Focus (11:00 AM - 2:00 PM)

  • Consumer Sentiment data (10:00 AM) - Secondary impact

  • Options expiry positioning ($22B BTC/ETH options expire today)

  • Sector rotation confirmation

Power Hour (3:00-4:00 PM)

  • End-of-week positioning

  • Weekend risk assessment for pharma sector

📈 BULLISH SECTORS TODAY

  1. 🏥 US Pharmaceuticals - Tariff protection advantage

  2. 🚛 Domestic Trucking - Heavy truck import barriers

  3. 🏭 Manufacturing - Reshoring beneficiaries

  4. ⚡ Energy - Independence narrative

📉 BEARISH SECTORS TODAY

  1. 🌏 Foreign Pharma - 100% tariff devastation

  2. 📱 Import-Heavy Tech - Supply chain concerns

  3. 🛒 Consumer Discretionary - Rising costs impact

  4. 🏠 Furniture/Home Goods - 30-50% tariff burden

🎯 MASTERMIND GUIDANCE

Based on our community intelligence and real-time analysis:

"The market is at a critical juncture where Trump's trade policies are creating clear winners and losers. Focus on domestic beneficiaries while avoiding foreign exposure. The PCE data gives Fed doves ammunition, but tariff inflation could change that dynamic quickly."

Key Trading Rules:

  1. ✅ Play the tariff beneficiaries early

  2. ✅ Use tight stops on international exposure

  3. ✅ Watch for oversold bounces in quality tech

  4. ❌ Don't chase foreign pharma bounces yet

💡 ECONOMIC CALENDAR IMPACT

Today's Data (Friday, Sept 26)

  • ✅ PCE Data: Met expectations - neutral to bullish

  • 🕘 10:00 AM: Consumer Sentiment (Final) - Watch consumer impact of tariffs

  • 📊 1:00 PM: Fed's Bowman speaks - Policy guidance

🔮 WEEKEND OUTLOOK

Key Developments to Monitor

  1. International Response: EU, Asia reactions to pharmaceutical tariffs

  2. Corporate Guidance: Pharma companies addressing tariff impact

  3. Fed Communications: Rate cut probability adjustments

Monday Gap Risk

  • Pharmaceutical sector volatility expected

  • Foreign market weekend developments

  • Tariff implementation timeline clarity

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Disclaimer: All trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This newsletter is for educational purposes and represents our community's analysis of current market conditions. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately.

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