S&P 500 & Crypto Markets Summary

📰 Key Market Events & Sentiment

• Tech stocks under pressure: Nvidia ($NVDA) earnings temporarily boosted the market, but late-day selling pushed indices lower.

• S&P 500 (SPX) & Nasdaq ($QQQ) Weakness: SPX struggled to hold support at 5900, while QQQ continued its pullback with a 3% decline.

• Inflation concerns persist: Tomorrow’s PCE inflation report will be crucial in determining short-term market direction.

• Crypto market sees relief: SEC dropped its lawsuit against Coinbase, declaring that memecoins are NOT securities, leading to a short-term rally.

• Political & Global News: Ongoing discussions about tariffs, White House meetings with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and potential Ukraine aid reimbursements create uncertainty.

📉 Stock Market Recap

🔻 Indices Performance

• S&P 500 (SPX): -1.2%, struggling below key resistance levels.

• Nasdaq ($QQQ): -2.9%, tech sector hit hard.

• Dow Jones ($DIA): -0.7%, defensive sectors performed better.

• Russell 2000 ($IWM): -1.8%, small caps underperformed.

📈 Sector Performance

• 🔼 Top Performing Sectors:

  • Solar

  • Semiconductors (temporary post-NVDA boost)

  • Internet stocks

• 🔽 Weakest Sectors:

  • Staples

  • Housing

  • Energy stocks underperformed due to oil price weakness.

📊 Key Stocks & Earnings Highlights

• 🔼 Notable Gainers:

  • Hilton ($HLT) +5%: Strong business travel demand, bullish call option activity.

  • Hims & Hers ($HIMS) +8.8%: Strong revenue growth and bullish options flow.

  • Snowflake ($SNOW) +8.8%: AI-driven data storage demand.

  • Robinhood ($HOOD) +7%: Positive sentiment and heavy call buying.

  • Teva Pharma ($TEVA) +6.2%: Bullish options spreads suggest confidence in a rebound.
    

• 🔻 Notable Losers:

  • Nvidia ($NVDA) -8.5%: Profit-taking post-earnings, breaking below the 200-day moving average.

  • Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) -5.1%: Bearish options flow following NVDA’s weakness.

  • Viant Tech ($DSP) -6.3%: Pullback despite strong earnings performance.

  • MicroStrategy ($MSTR) -7.2%: Bitcoin correlation drove losses.

  • Tesla ($TSLA) -4.7%: Still holding the 200-day MA, but options show increased bearish positioning.

📉 Crypto Market Recap

🔼 Bullish Developments:

• SEC dropped its lawsuit against Coinbase ($COIN), ruling that memecoins are NOT securities.

• Bitcoin ($BTC) drops overnight under 80k, with increased institutional interest.

• Altcoins seeing momentum: Ethereum ($ETH) and Solana ($SOL) saw a +3-5% bounce after SEC’s decision but still down overnight.

🔻 Bearish Risks:

• Crypto still highly correlated to equity markets, continue to show weakness.

• Regulatory uncertainty remains, with more oversight discussions expected.

• Profit-taking could emerge post-news rally.

📌 Key Trade Setups

🟢 Bullish Trade Ideas (Strong Momentum & Positive Sentiment)

1️⃣ Hilton ($HLT)

• Entry: Above $250, targeting $272.

• Stop-loss: Below $240.

• Options Play: June $250 Calls.

2️⃣ Teva Pharma ($TEVA)

• Entry: Above $17, targeting $22.

• Stop-loss: Below $15.

• Options Play: June $18/$22 Call Spread.

3️⃣ Coinbase ($COIN)

• Entry: Above $220, targeting $280.

• Stop-loss: Below $200.

• Options Play: May $220 Calls.

4️⃣ Robinhood ($HOOD)

• Entry: Above $48, targeting $55+.

• Stop-loss: Below $45.

• Options Play: April $48 Calls.

🔴 Bearish Trade Ideas (Weak Momentum & Negative Sentiment)

2️⃣ Taiwan Semi ($TSM)

• Entry: Short below $180, targeting $170.

• Stop-loss: Above $190.

• Options Play: April $190 Puts.

3️⃣ Tesla ($TSLA)

• Entry: Short below $300, targeting $280.

• Stop-loss: Above $310.

• Options Play: March 7th $305 Puts.

⏩ Moving Forward: Key Things to Watch

📌 Stock Market ✅ PCE Inflation Report (Friday) – Will determine Fed’s rate path.
✅ Watch SPX 5900 & Nasdaq 15,000 for signs of support.
✅ Tech stocks must stabilize, especially $NVDA & $TSLA.
✅ Earnings from consumer sectors (BBWI, PEP) for insights into spending.

✅ SEC ruling impact on Coinbase ($COIN) and memecoins.
✅ Monitor Ethereum ($ETH) for potential breakout above $5,500.

🚀 Final Thought:

• Short-term bias is neutral-to-bearish, but a bounce is possible if PCE data is favorable.

• Crypto markets are at a pivotal moment – $BTC above $85K is key.

• Watch for rotation into defensive names like Hilton ($HLT) and Teva ($TEVA) if risk-off continues.

Stock Market Overview:

Asian markets have seen significant declines, with benchmarks in Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea each dropping over 2%. This downturn mirrors losses on Wall Street, driven by concerns over the sustainability of the recent enthusiasm for artificial intelligence technologies. Additionally, President Donald Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with a doubling of tariffs on Chinese products to 20%, has further unsettled investors. Technology shares, including companies like Nvidia, have experienced notable declines despite strong profit reports, partly due to emerging competition from China's DeepSeek. These developments have raised fears that the tariffs could exacerbate inflation and lead to higher unemployment.

apnews.com

Cryptocurrency Market Update:

The cryptocurrency sector is facing challenges following a significant security breach. Bybit, a Dubai-based crypto exchange, reported a sophisticated hack resulting in the theft of approximately $1.5 billion worth of Ethereum. The FBI has attributed this theft to North Korean-linked hacking groups, including the Lazarus Group and TraderTraitor. The stolen funds are reportedly being converted into Bitcoin and other virtual currencies, likely to be laundered and exchanged for fiat currency. This incident has led to a decline in overall crypto prices and increased regulatory scrutiny.

apnews.com

In a related regulatory development, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed to dismiss its lawsuit against Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S. The lawsuit, initiated in 2023, accused Coinbase of facilitating the trading of unregistered securities. This move reflects a policy shift under President Donald Trump's administration and the appointment of Paul Atkins, a crypto-friendly SEC chairman.

reuters.com

Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook:

The imposition of new tariffs has introduced significant uncertainty into the global economic landscape, contributing to stock market volatility and affecting investor sentiment. Experts advise incorporating this uncertainty into financial planning by focusing on creating resilient and diversified portfolios. Factors such as tariffs, reduced immigration, and cuts to government spending are contributing to a slowdown in economic growth, as indicated by recent dips in consumer sentiment and housing data. The U.S. Treasury yield decline further signifies market unrest, with investors seeking safer assets.

Subscribe to Upgraded Premium Reports