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- ๐จ MARKET ALERT: Record 36-Day Shutdown Rocks Markets as Tech Giants Tumble & Bitcoin Breaks $100K Support
๐จ MARKET ALERT: Record 36-Day Shutdown Rocks Markets as Tech Giants Tumble & Bitcoin Breaks $100K Support
Government Gridlock Enters Historic Territory While AI Stocks Face Reality Check - Your Wednesday Battle Plan
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DCG COMMAND CENTER | November 5, 2025 Trading Newsletter
๐ EXECUTIVE BRIEFING: Key Things to Know Going Into Wednesday
BREAKING: The U.S. government shutdown has officially entered DAY 36, making it the longest in American history and surpassing the previous 35-day record from 2018-2019. This time it's different - we're looking at 100% of appropriations affected versus just 10% in the prior shutdown. Markets are showing cracks as uncertainty weighs on sentiment.
CRITICAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS:
โ ๏ธ S&P 500 Futures ($ES) trading at 6,794.25, down -7.50 (-0.11%)
๐ฅ Bitcoin crashed below $100K for first time since June, now at $101,836
๐ด Tech Selloff Intensifies: AMD down 4.5% pre-market despite beat
๐ Ethereum plunges 5.95% to $3,296 as crypto contagion spreads
๐ ADP Jobs +42K (beat est. +30K) but government data remains dark
๐๏ธ SNAP benefits disrupted affecting millions of Americans
โก VIX elevated near 20, signaling continued fear
THE BOTTOM LINE: Markets face triple headwinds - historic government shutdown creating data blackout, AI valuations under pressure, and crypto long-term holders dumping $45B. BUT contrarians see opportunity as fear gauges spike and technical setups improve.
๐ฏ MARKET SENTIMENT & KEY LEVELS
S&P 500 Futures ($ES) Technical Setup
Current Level: 6,794.25 (Live Price)
Critical Support: 6,766 (must hold) | 6,654 (50-day MA)
Immediate Resistance: 6,798 | 6,807 | 6,815
Downside Targets: 6,400-6,500 (BTIG analyst warning)
Trend: Bearish short-term, hasn't touched 50-DMA since April
Trading Strategy: Look for reclaim of 6,798 to trigger long positions targeting 6,815+. Below 6,766, expect test of 6,654 level. BTIG warns S&P hasn't fallen 3% or touched 50-DMA since April - overdue correction?
Bitcoin & Crypto Market Breakdown
Bitcoin (BTC): $101,836 (-2.90%)
Critical Support: $100,000 (LOST) | $95,000 (next major level)
Resistance: $107,000 | $110,000
Downside Risk: $95K if selling continues, potentially $91K
Catalyst: Long-term holders dumped $45B, creating massive pressure
Ethereum (ETH): $3,296 (-5.95%)
Support Levels: $3,200 | $2,900 (must hold)
Resistance: $3,700 | $3,850 | $4,000
Bearish Signal: Below 200-day EMA for first time in 9 months
Downside Target: $2,900 failure could trigger collapse to $1,800
๐ฅ OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVERS & EARNINGS ANALYSIS
MAJOR EARNINGS REACTIONS (After-Hours/Pre-Market)
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) ๐
Last Close: $250.05 | Pre-Market: $244.04 (-2.40%)
Q3 Results: EPS $1.20 (beat $1.17) | Rev $9.25B (beat $8.74B)
Guidance: Q4 sales $9.3-9.9B (above consensus)
Why Down? Already priced in, China export controls ($1.5B revenue hit)
Trade Rating: 6/10 - Wait for stabilization below $240
BAC (Bank of America) ๐
Investor Day Targets:
EPS Growth: 12%+ over 3-5 years
ROTCE: 16-18%
FY25 NII: $60.4B
Dividend: ~30% payout ratio
Trade Rating: 8/10 - Strong financials, buy dips
MCD (McDonald's) ๐
Current: $299.21 (-2% after-hours)
Q3 EPS: $3.22 (miss $3.35) | Rev $7.08B (miss $7.10B)
US Comp Sales: +2.4% (beat +2.14%)
Trade Rating: 5/10 - Neutral, wait for clarity
GOOGL (Alphabet/Google Cloud) ๐
Catalyst: Morgan Stanley sees Google Cloud revenue rising 50%+ in 2026
Key Driver: $158B backlog (55% recognized over 2 years)
Analyst: "Mid-single-digit upside" to MS estimates, 15%+ above Street
Trade Rating: 9/10 - Strong AI/Cloud growth story
TSLA (Tesla) โก
Catalyst: Musk hints at flying car "before end of year" Competition Alert: BYD widens lead in UK - sold 7X more cars than Tesla in October
BYD YTD Sales: 39,103 (up 6X) vs TSLA 35,455 (down 4.5%)
Trade Rating: 7/10 - Innovation potential vs competitive pressure
๐ฐ HIGH-CONVICTION TRADE IDEAS FOR NOVEMBER 5
๐ข BULLISH SETUPS
1. LMND (Lemonade) โญโญโญโญโญ
Trade Rating: 9/10 | Sector: InsurTech
Why: Rising pre-market, analyst upgrade cycle
Entry Zone: Current levels
Target: +10-15% swing
Stop Loss: -5%
2. IREN (Iris Energy) โญโญโญโญโญ
Trade Rating: 10/10 | Sector: Bitcoin Mining
Why: Bitcoin mining play, energy infrastructure beneficiary
Catalyst: Bitcoin mining momentum despite BTC correction
Entry: Watch for stabilization
Target: +20% on BTC recovery
Community Buzz: Multiple mentions in trading circles
3. CIFR (Cipher Mining) โญโญโญโญ
Trade Rating: 9/10 | Sector: Crypto Mining
Analyst: BTIG Reiterates Buy, $25 PT
Why: Bitcoin mining with strong infrastructure
Entry Zone: Near current levels
Target: $25 (analyst PT)
Stop: Below key support
4. NBIS (Nebius Group) โญโญโญโญ
Trade Rating: 8/10 | Sector: AI Infrastructure
Catalyst: Launches Nebius Token Factory for production AI inference
Why: AI infrastructure at scale, enterprise-grade reliability
Entry: Early stages of launch
Target: +15-25%
5. CRWD (CrowdStrike) โญโญโญโญ
Trade Rating: 8/10 | Sector: Cybersecurity
Catalyst: Partnership with CoreWeave for secure AI cloud
Why: AI + cybersecurity convergence
Entry: On any dip
Target: +12-18%
6. ZETA (Zeta Global) โญโญโญโญโญ
Trade Rating: 9/10 | Current: $16.70 (up $1.80)
Catalyst: Strong Q3 earnings, guides Q4 and FY26 above consensus
Technical: Retested 200-day MA, bounced +11% post-earnings
Entry: $16-17 range
Target: $19-20 (+15-20%)
Chart: Outstanding setup, projection changed bullish
7. AMGN (Amgen) โญโญโญโญ
Trade Rating: 8/10 | Current: $296.70 (up $10)
Q3 Beat: EPS $5.64 (beat $5.02) | Rev $9.56B (beat $8.97B)
Guidance: FY25 in-line EPS, revenue above consensus
Entry: $290-295
Target: $310-320 (+8-10%)
8. GRAB (Grab Holdings) โญโญโญโญ
Trade Rating: 8/10 | Sector: Southeast Asia Tech
Catalyst: "Green Grand Slam Earnings" per analysts
Entry: Post-earnings dip
Target: +12-18%
๐ด BEARISH SETUPS / AVOID
1. AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) โ ๏ธ
Trade Rating: 4/10 - AVOID/WAIT Current: $244 pre-market (down from $250.05 close)
Why Bearish: Sell-the-news, China export concerns
Wait For: Sub-$230 for entry
Risk: Further downside to $220
2. UPST (Upstart) ๐ป
Trade Rating: 3/10 - BEARISH Current: $46.24 (down $7)
Q3 Miss: EPS $0.23 (miss $0.42 est)
Guidance: FY25 revenue below consensus
Management: Opaque answers, trust issues
Avoid: Poor execution, balance sheet concerns
3. PINS (Pinterest) ๐ป
Trade Rating: 4/10 - DOWNGRADE
Analyst: Rosenblatt downgrades to Neutral from Buy, $30 PT
Why: Valuation concerns, momentum fading
Wait For: Better entry below $28
4. SEDG (SolarEdge) ๐
Trade Rating: 3/10 - WEAK Current: $31.82 (down $7)
Q3: Beat EPS but guides Q4 revenue below consensus
Sector: Solar facing headwinds
Avoid: Sector weakness, guidance miss
๐๏ธ WHITE HOUSE & POLICY IMPACT
Government Shutdown: Day 36 - Historic Implications
Trump Remarks: "One year ago, I had that big beautiful victory... shutdown was big factor in election"
CRITICAL MARKET IMPACTS:
Data Blackout:
Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended
No official jobs report or CPI data
Fed operating "blind" ahead of policy decisions
Using ADP private sector data as proxy (+42K today)
Economic Drag:
Each week trims 0.2% from GDP (rule of thumb)
CBO estimates: 4-week shutdown = -1% Q4 GDP
8-week shutdown = -2% Q4 GDP
$7-14B permanently lost depending on duration
SNAP Benefits Disrupted:
Millions of Americans not receiving food stamps
Consumer spending impact mounting
Local businesses feeling ripple effects
Federal Contractor Impact:
Delayed payments affecting defense, IT, infrastructure firms
Cash flow concerns for government-exposed companies
DOGE (Dept. of Government Efficiency) cutbacks adding pressure
MARKET INTERPRETATION:
Short-term: Volatility from uncertainty
Historical Pattern: Stocks positive 50% during shutdowns, higher 3-6 months later
Current Difference: This is 100% appropriations vs 10% in 2018
Fed Policy: Complicated rate cut outlook without data
TRADING STRATEGY:
Defensive positioning until resolution
Avoid government contractor heavy stocks
Focus on private sector growth stories
Watch for buying opportunity when deal approaches
๐ฐ TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES & POLITICAL EDGE
Supreme Court IEEPA Tariff Hearing - TODAY
CRITICAL: Supreme Court hears oral arguments on legality of tariffs imposed under IEEPA
Impact: These tariffs = ~9.5pp of 14.7pp effective tariff rate (post-China fentanyl reduction)
Ruling Scenarios:
Bullish (Tariffs struck down): Trade-sensitive sectors rally
Bearish (Tariffs upheld): Import costs remain elevated
Neutral (Partial ruling): Mixed reaction
POTENTIAL MARKET MOVERS:
Importers, retailers, industrial companies most affected
China-exposed names (if fentanyl tariffs reinstated)
Domestic manufacturers could benefit from sustained tariffs
Trump Administration Focus
Key Themes:
Deregulation: Financial, energy sectors benefit
Tariff Policy: Watch Supreme Court ruling impact
Government Efficiency: DOGE cutbacks create winners/losers
Energy Independence: Fossil fuel support
SECTORS TO WATCH:
Winners: Financials, Energy, Defense, Domestic Manufacturing
Losers: Import-heavy retailers, China-exposed tech
๐ GLOBAL MARKET SNAPSHOT
Europe ๐ช๐บ
DAX: -0.7% (Germany)
Catalyst: ECB officials signal vigilance on inflation
Stournaras: "Faster US inflation could spread"
Impact: Rate cut expectations tempered
Asia ๐
Japan Nikkei: Rough sessions, down sharply
SoftBank: -10%, wiped $23B market cap on AI valuation jitters
China: Bans foreign AI chips from state-funded data centers
Impact: NVDA, AMD exposure to China market concerns
Commodities ๐
Gold: -0.52% to $3,993 (profit-taking)
Oil: Mixed, demand concerns
Dollar (DXY): Highest since May 28, above 100
๐น SECTOR ANALYSIS: MONEY ROTATION & LEADERSHIP
๐ข BULLISH SECTORS
Financials (+0.52%) ๐ฐ
Leaders: Banks, Insurance
Catalyst: Bank of America investor day bullish targets
Why: Net interest income improvement, efficiency gains
Top Picks: BAC, JPM, regional banks on dips
Health Care (+0.45%) ๐ฅ
Leaders: Biotech, Pharma
Catalyst: Defensive rotation during uncertainty
Plays: AMGN (strong earnings), SRPT (upgraded)
Consumer Staples (+0.41%) ๐
Leaders: Food, Household Products
Why: Defensive positioning, recession hedge
Safe Haven: During market uncertainty
Real Estate (+0.27%) ๐
Leaders: REITs
Catalyst: Rate cut expectations, yield play
๐ด BEARISH SECTORS
Technology (-2.64%) ๐ป
Laggards: Semiconductors, AI Hardware
Why: Valuation concerns, China export controls
Weakness: AMD, NVDA under pressure despite strong fundamentals
Watch: Magnificent 7 showing signs of exhaustion
Communication Services (-0.69%) ๐ฑ
Pressure: Social media, streaming
Note: PINS downgrade adding to sector woes
Industrials (-1.16%) ๐ญ
Weakness: Cyclical concerns, shutdown impact
Government Contractors: Delayed payments
Energy (-1.08%) โฝ
Decline: Demand concerns, oil weakness
Watch: Seasonal patterns typically favor energy
Consumer Discretionary (-1.66%) ๐๏ธ
Weakness: Spending concerns, shutdown impact
Risk: SNAP benefit disruptions affecting low-income consumers
๐ช BITCOIN & CRYPTO SENTIMENT BREAKDOWN
Market Structure Alert โ ๏ธ
Bitcoin: $101,836 (-2.90%) 24H Change: -6% from $106,822 7D Change: -10% from $112,542 All-Time High: $126,210 (Oct 6, 2025) - Currently -20% off highs
CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS:
Long-Term Holder Capitulation:
Dumped $45 billion worth of BTC
First time below $100K since June 23
Massive selling pressure from hodlers
Technical Breakdown:
Lost $100K psychological support
Next support: $95,000 zone
Further downside risk: $91,000
Bitcoin tested resistance at $100K (now turned support)
On-Chain Metrics:
Open interest liquidations: $10B+ (comparable to May 2021 crash, FTX 2022)
Sequans Communications sold 970 BTC from reserves
Corporate treasury deleverage signal
Institutional Activity:
ETF outflows dominating
Amazon sold all 822,234 AMD shares (related to broader risk-off)
Institutional rotation from BTC to emerging narratives (Solana)
ETHEREUM BREAKDOWN:
ETH: $3,296 (-5.95%)
Critical Level: Below 200-day EMA first time in 9 months
Support: $3,200 | $2,900 (MUST HOLD)
Failure Risk: Could trigger cascade to $1,800
Resistance: $3,700 | $4,000
Whale Activity:
1,000-100,000 ETH wallets added 1.64M ETH ($6.4B) in October
Retail holders slowing accumulation (HAR dropping)
Divergence: Whales buying, retail fading
ALTCOIN SNAPSHOT: Gainers (Top 3):
ZSynk (ZK) +8%
Bitget Token (BGB) +7%
Hyperliquid (HYPE) +6%
Losers (Top 3):
Dash (DASH) -30%
Decred (DCR) -21%
Bittensor (TAO) -12%
Sector Performance:
Solana Ecosystem: -1.52% (outperforming)
Base Ecosystem: +0.12%
DeFi: -0.53%
Meme Coins: Mixed, sector rotation away
CRYPTO TRADING STRATEGY
Bearish Scenario (Active):
BTC fails $100K โ Target $95K โ Possible $88-91K
ETH breaks $2,900 โ Target $1,800-2,000
Alt bloodbath continues
Bullish Scenario (Watch For):
BTC reclaims $107K with volume โ Target $115-120K
ETH holds $3,200, reclaims $3,700 โ Target $4,200+
Major short squeeze potential (high short interest per Santiment)
CONTRARIAN VIEW:
Extreme fear (Fear & Greed: 21) = historic buy zone
Long-term holders capitulating = smart money accumulation phase?
Network fundamentals remain strong
Wait for stabilization before aggressive entries
๐ ECONOMIC INDICATORS & DATA
Today's Economic Calendar (Wednesday, Nov 5)
7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
Result: -1.9% (Prior: +7.1%)
30-Yr Rate: 6.31% (vs 6.30% prior)
Impact: Housing market cooling
8:15 AM ET: ADP Employment Report โ
Result: +42,000 (Beat est. +30K)
Prior: -32,000 (revised)
Impact: POSITIVE - Private sector job growth returning
Note: Government data still unavailable due to shutdown
10:00 AM ET: ISM Services Index
Expected: Key economic indicator
Watch: Services sector health
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report
3:00 PM ET: Fed's Waller Speech
Watch: Rate cut commentary
๐ฒ OPTIONS FLOW & DARK POOL ACTIVITY
Notable Activity:
High put/call ratio suggesting bearish positioning
Increased hedging activity in tech names
VIX calls active (fear hedge)
Key Levels to Watch:
SPY max pain levels
QQQ option concentration
Large block trades in financials
๐ EARNINGS CALENDAR - This Week
Today (Nov 5) After Market Close:
QCOM (Qualcomm): Expected EPS $2.87
FTNT (Fortinet): Facing headwinds, legal challenges
HUBS (HubSpot): Down 32% YTD, critical test
This Week:
Multiple earnings from mid-cap tech
Watch for guidance on Q4 outlook
AI spending commentary critical
๐ฏ ACTIONABLE TRADING PLAN FOR NOVEMBER 5, 2025
PRE-MARKET (7:00 AM - 9:30 AM ET)
PRIORITY WATCH LIST:
Monitor S&P futures at 6,798 resistance
Bitcoin support at $100K critical
AMD stabilization watch ($240-245)
IREN/CIFR for crypto mining setup
BAC on financial sector strength
KEY QUESTIONS:
Will futures reclaim 6,798?
Can Bitcoin hold $100K on any retest?
Does tech find support or continue selling?
MARKET OPEN (9:30 AM - 10:30 AM ET)
INITIAL TRADES:
IF BULLISH OPEN:
Scale into IREN, CIFR on any early dip
Add ZETA on continuation
Watch AMGN for healthcare strength
Consider CRWD on cybersecurity momentum
IF BEARISH OPEN:
Avoid catching falling knives in tech
Short-term puts on AMD, semiconductors
Defensive: XLP, XLV sectors
Cash preservation mode
RISK MANAGEMENT:
Position size: 2-3% max per trade
Stop losses mandatory
Avoid FOMO in volatile morning
MID-DAY (10:30 AM - 2:00 PM ET)
ISM Services Data Reaction (10:00 AM):
Strong data: Risk-on rotation
Weak data: Flight to safety
TRADING FOCUS:
Let morning volatility settle
Look for failed breakouts/breakdowns
Best setups often form 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM
Scale into high-conviction names on dips
PATIENCE TRADES:
GOOGL on cloud growth story
BAC on financial sector rotation
Quality over quantity in uncertain environment
POWER HOUR (3:00 PM - 4:00 PM ET)
WATCH FOR:
Fed's Waller speech (3:00 PM) - rate commentary
End-of-day institutional flows
Short covering potential in beaten-down names
Volume confirmation on any rallies
SWING POSITIONS:
Establish overnight positions only in high-conviction ideas
Consider holding cash given uncertainty
Use tight stops for overnight holds
AVOID:
Low-volume chasing
Emotional trading
Over-leveraging in this environment
Key Takeaways from Trading Community:
"Debasement Trading" Rally Attempt:
Small relief bounce in commodities and defensive
SPY -0.1%, QQQ -0.3%, IWM +0.1%
Not sustainable without catalyst
Contrarian Indicators:
AAII bulls minus bears at bear market extremes
Historically bullish setup
"Wall of worry" building (Tom Lee, Fundstrat)
Crypto Community:
Split between "buying the dip" and "more downside"
Smart money seems to be waiting for clarity
Accumulation zone forming but patience required
Elliott Wave Analysis:
MSFT, NVDA, GOOG, AAPL all in late Wave 5
Structured pullback likely before next leg
"Textbook" patterns suggesting top approaching
Sector Rotation Signs:
Money moving from growth to value
Small-cap relative strength
Financials gaining ground
Community Sentiment: Mixed/Cautious - 60% defensive, 40% looking for opportunities
๐ EDUCATIONAL INSIGHT: Trading Government Shutdowns
Historical Performance:
S&P 500 average during shutdowns: +0.3%
12-month post-shutdown average: +13%
Current shutdown unique: 100% appropriations vs typical 10-20%
Best Practices:
Don't Fight the Fed: Rate policy still matters most
Buy Fear: Extreme readings = contrarian opportunity
Defensive First: Protect capital, opportunities will come
Quality Focus: Strong balance sheets weather storms
Patience Pays: Best entries often after panic peaks
โ ๏ธ RISK MANAGEMENT REMINDERS
Critical Rules for Today:
Position Sizing: No single trade >3% of portfolio
Stop Losses: Non-negotiable in volatile environment
Avoid Averaging Down: In bearish trends (AMD, tech)
Cash is Position: Okay to wait for clarity
Journal Everything: Learn from this volatility
Red Flags:
Trading out of boredom
Revenge trading after losses
Ignoring stop losses
Over-leveraging
FOMO on pumps
๐ฏ TOP 10 TRADES FOR TODAY - RANKED
Highest Conviction Ideas:
IREN - 10/10 ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
CIFR - 9/10 ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
ZETA - 9/10 ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
GOOGL - 9/10 ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
LMND - 9/10 ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
BAC - 8/10 ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
AMGN - 8/10 ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
CRWD - 8/10 ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
NBIS - 8/10 ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
GRAB - 8/10 ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
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๐ FUTURES OVERNIGHT LEVELS
S&P 500 ($ES):
Bull Case Above: 6,798 โ 6,815 โ 6,840
Bear Case Below: 6,766 โ 6,713 โ 6,654
NASDAQ ($NQ):
Monitor tech-heavy index for direction
Key correlation with AI stocks
Russell 2000 ($RTY):
Small-cap strength = risk-on
Weakness = defensive mode
๐ FINAL WORD: THE TRADING EDGE
Today's Market in Three Sentences:
The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is creating unprecedented uncertainty just as AI valuations face reality checks and Bitcoin breaks critical support. Smart money is defensively positioned while hunting for contrarian opportunities in the fear. Winners today will be those who stay disciplined, size appropriately, and wait for high-probability setups rather than forcing trades into chaos.
The DCG Approach:
Trade the market you have, not the one you want
Respect price action over opinions
Risk management isn't optional
Patience is alpha in volatile markets
Community over chaos
Remember: This isn't about getting rich quick. It's about showing up every day, managing risk, and taking high-probability trades when they present themselves. The market doesn't care about your opinions - only your execution.
๐ TOMORROW'S FOCUS
Thursday, November 6 Preview:
Watch for shutdown resolution headlines
Monitor crypto stabilization attempts
Tech sector bounce or continued weakness
Follow through on today's moves
Prepare for Friday setup
โ TODAY'S CHECKLIST
Review pre-market levels and watch list
Check Bitcoin $100K support status
Monitor ISM Services at 10:00 AM
Watch Fed's Waller at 3:00 PM
Review top trade setups (IREN, CIFR, ZETA)
Set stop losses on all positions
Journal trades and lessons
Prepare for tomorrow's session
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The prices and data provided are based on available information as of November 5, 2025, and are subject to change.
DCG Command Center | Clarity. Community. Execution. Trading Every Single Day.
Newsletter compiled: November 5, 2025, 8:45 AM ET Next issue: November 6, 2025 Follow us: @DCGCommandCenter
๐ Set your alerts. Trade with discipline. See you in the markets.
ยฉ 2025 DCG Command Center. All rights reserved.

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