🚨 Iran Fires on the Strait of Hormuz as Wall Street Reopens:Energy Erupts, Nasdaq Under Pressure — Here's Your Full Gameplan

The decision is yours

Confusing, jargon-packed, and time-consuming. Or quick, direct, and actually enjoyable.

Easy choice.

There’s a reason over 4 million professionals read Morning Brew instead of traditional business media. The facts hit harder, it’s built to be skimmed, and for once, business news is something you actually look forward to reading.

Try Morning Brew’s newsletter for free and realize just how good business news can be.

Check it out

🚨BREAKING (5:10 AM CST) — Iran's IRGC fires missiles toward the Strait of Hormuz & partially closes the world's most critical oil chokepoint for military drills. ~20% of global oil supply transits through the Strait. WTI trading near $64/bbl. XLE pre-market +1.2%. VIX spikes to 22+. Geneva US-Iran talks scheduled for today.

⚡ 5 Key Things To Know Before The Bell — Feb 17, 2026

1

IRAN STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHOCK: Iran's Revolutionary Guard partially closed the Strait of Hormuz for "military drills," firing missiles toward the waterway that carries ~20% of global daily oil supply. Khamenei issued direct warnings to Trump. WTI oil ~ $64/bbl (approaching key $65 breakout). Energy sector (XLE) pre-market +1.2%. Defense names rallying. Oil/gas E&P stocks and defense contractors are the primary beneficiaries.

2

NASDAQ / TECH UNDER PRESSURE: Nasdaq pre-market down ~4%+ from open reference (QQQ -0.8%). AMZN on track for 10 straight down days. AI-disruption fears are spreading sector by sector — from software → financials → retail → logistics. VIX above 22 — highest since November. S&P 500 last close: 6,836 (barely holding 100-day MA near 6,811). The market re-opened to continued AI-rotation selling.

3

GOLD AT $4,937/oz: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey: investors see gold peaking at $6,200 (weighted avg). 19% expect gold above $7,000. Gold is printing new multi-decade highs. Combined with Iran tensions, Gold/Silver/Defense names are top safe-haven plays today. TLT (bonds) +0.4% as 10yr yield hits lows of the year at 4.03%.

4

MAJOR EARNINGS THIS WEEK: Today (Feb 17): Medtronic ($MDT), Palo Alto Networks ($PANW), Constellation Energy ($CEG). Wednesday: DoorDash ($DASH), Booking Holdings ($BKNG), Carvana ($CVNA). Thursday: Walmart ($WMT) — the KEY consumer health read. Friday: Nvidia ($NVDA) next week Feb 25 — the AI wildcard that could flip market direction entirely. Sympathy plays across all categories.

5

TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR (Major): 8:30 AM ET — Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jan), Retail Sales MoM (Jan), NY Empire State Manufacturing (Feb, est. 3). 10:00 AM ET — Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb, est. 41). 12:45 PM ET — Fed's Barr Speech (watch for any hawkish surprise on rates). This compressed data flood coming off a holiday is a potential whipsaw event.

📊

Phase 0: Verified Pre-Market Prices — Feb 17, 2026

VERIFIED

⚠️ Price Verification Notice

All prices below are sourced from verified market data as of pre-market Feb 17, 2026 (approx. 5:30–6:00 AM CST). Last confirmed closes from Feb 13, 2026 (Friday, last trading day). Sources: Yahoo Finance, CoinMarketCap, Bloomberg, TradingTerminal.com, SoSoValue. All trade entries are calibrated to these verified baselines.

$ES (S&P 500 Futures)

6,831

▼ -19 pts (-0.28%) PM

Last close: 6,836.17 | H4 LB: 6,944 | L3: 6,808

$NQ (Nasdaq Futures)

~21,700

▼ -0.6% Pre-Mkt

QQQ last close: $597.53 | PM: -0.73%

$YM (Dow Futures)

49,500

▼ -0.1% PM

DIA last close: $495.28 | PM: -0.16%

VIX (Fear Index)

22.22

▲ +4.81% — Elevated Risk

Highest since November 2025

WTI Crude Oil

~$64

▲ Iran Risk Premium Rising

Brent: ~$69 | Key: $65 breakout

Gold (XAU)

$4,937

Near ATH | BofA target $6,200

Safe haven flows accelerating

10-Yr Treasury Yield

4.03%

▼ YTD Lows | Flight to safety

2yr: 3.38% | 30yr: 4.67%

XLE (Energy ETF)

+1.2%

▲ LEADING Pre-Market

Strongest sector heading into open

BTC (Bitcoin)

$67,806

▼ -1.22% (24h)

Source: CMC / SoSoValue | Fear&Greed: 13

ETH (Ethereum)

$1,968

▼ -0.09% (24h)

1yr: -33.75% | 28.26% BTC dom

SOL (Solana)

$85.04

▼ -0.32% (24h)

1yr: -52.10% | Vol: $3.5B

Crypto Mkt Cap

$2.33T

▼ -0.94% (24h)

F&G: 13/100 (Extreme Fear)

📈

Market Recap — Week of Feb 9–13 & Holiday Return

CONTEXT

🔴 Prior Week Summary: Broad Selling Continues

The S&P 500 closed Friday Feb 13 at 6,836.17 — barely above the 100-day MA (~6,811). Last week: Dow -1.23%, S&P -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.1% (5th straight weekly decline for Nasdaq — worst streak since 2022). AI disruption fears spread from software → financials → retail → logistics. AppLovin (APP) -18% post-earnings, Pinterest (PINS) -21%. CPI came in light at +0.2% MoM / +2.4% YoY vs. 0.3%/2.5% expected — which provided minor relief but didn't reverse the trend. Sector leaders: Utilities (+2.76%), Real Estate (+1.47%), Health Care (+1.07%). Tech: only +0.25% for the week.

WHAT WORKED: Defensive rotation — Utilities, Real Estate, Health Care, Materials, Industrials all outperformed. Equal-weight $RSP is +5% YTD even as Mag-7 bleeds. Nike +3.18%, UnitedHealth +3.16%, Walt Disney +3.00% on the Dow last Friday. Goldman's DM Current Activity Indicator is at highest levels in 12 months — solid macro backdrop.

WHAT DIDN'T: Mega-cap tech took body blows. Apple -2.27%, Nvidia -2.21%, Amazon heading for potentially 10 straight down days, Broadcom PT cut to $458 at Citi. Warner Bros. downgraded to Neutral at Redburn. GIS cut FY26 outlook citing "weak consumer sentiment." The $SPX ex-Mag7 capex is not elevated — the selloff is concentrated in AI infrastructure names.

🌏

Breaking News Analysis — Post 3am CST, Feb 17, 2026

BREAKING

🏛️

White House Impact & Trump Political Edge

TRUMP TRADES

🇺🇸 Key White House Context for Feb 17, 2026

The most recent executive orders impacting markets: Feb 6, 2026 — Trump signed "Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Iran" EO, authorizing 25% tariffs on countries that buy Iranian goods/services. This is directly correlated with the Strait of Hormuz crisis today. Feb 11, 2026 — EO directing military to use coal-fired power plants for energy security, bullish for coal names. Feb 6, 2026 — India tariffs removed (25% scrapped) after India agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil — positive for US-India trade and select Indian ADRs.

✅ BULLISH Trump Trades Active Now

• Energy/Oil: Iran maximum pressure policy = oil floor. XOM, CVX, OXY, XLE beneficiaries

• Defense: "Addressing Threats" EO drives defense spending. RTX, LMT, NOC, GD on watch

• Coal/Energy Dominance: Feb 11 Coal EO bullish for ARCH, CEIX, BTU

• Domestic Manufacturing: Tariff regime continues to favor reshoring plays

• US-India Trade: India tariff removal opens bilateral opportunity — INDY ETF watch

🔴 BEARISH Trump Policy Risks

• Iran escalation: Could spike oil, hurt airlines, transportation, consumer names

• AI disruption fears: Trump admin's regulatory light-touch means faster AI deployment = more disruption to software/SaaS names

• GIS/Consumer names: Tariff cost pressures on food/CPG still elevated

• Tech exports: China tariff truce holds through Nov 2026, but NVDA, QCOM watch

• Global shipping costs: Strait of Hormuz risk premium adds to inflation fears

📌 Geneva US-Iran talks scheduled for February 17, 2026 — any positive diplomatic outcome = oil reversal lower, tech bounce. Any breakdown = further energy surge, risk-off market.

🎯

S&P 500 Futures ($ES) Key Levels — Feb 17, 2026

🔴 Resistance Levels

H5 LB Target (Major)~6,980

H4 Long Breakout6,944

H3 Short Level6,900–6,910

50-Day MA (Broken)~6,894

Friday Close6,836

Pre-Market (Current)6,831

🟢 Support Levels

100-Day MA (Critical)6,811

L3 Long Level6,808–6,810

Pre-Market Low6,808.75

L4 Short Breakout Zone~6,785–6,800

Feb 5 Reaction Low~6,780

Next Support Floor6,500 (Range Bottom)

📊 $ES Gameplan: The 6,811 Line in the Sand

The 100-day MA at ~6,811 is THE critical level. A close below it would be the first in nearly a year and would signal a technical breakdown. Current futures at 6,831 are hovering just 20 points above this support. Holding → look for relief rally to 6,900+. Breaking → next stop 6,785 then 6,500. The Strait of Hormuz news could be a volatility catalyst in either direction depending on Geneva talk outcomes. Trade with stops below 6,808.

🏭

Sector Analysis — Feb 17, 2026

ADVANCE/DECLINE

🟢 BULLISH SECTORS — TODAY'S LEADERS

Energy (XLE)

+1.20%

Utilities (XLU)

+2.76% (1wk)

Real Estate (XLRE)

+1.47% (1wk)

Health Care (XLV)

+1.07% (1wk)

Materials (XLB)

+0.91% (1wk)

Industrials (XLI)

+0.82% (1wk)

Defense (ITA)

WATCH ↑

🔴 BEARISH SECTORS — UNDER PRESSURE

Technology (XLK)

-1.35% (YTD)

Comm Services (XLC)

-0.05% (1wk)

Financials (XLF)

-0.08% (1wk)

Consumer Disc (XLY)

+0.04% (1wk)

SaaS / Software

AI DISRUPT

Airlines (JETS)

OIL RISK ↓

Japan/Int'l Equities

EWJ -2.6% PM

🔥 Hottest Sector Sentiment RIGHT NOW: ENERGY + DEFENSE + GOLD

The Iran Strait of Hormuz closure is the single biggest overnight catalyst. Money is rotating into hard assets (oil, gold), defense contractors, and out of tech/software. Equal-weight S&P (RSP +0.2% pre-market) vs QQQ (-0.8%) confirms the rotation. The equal-weight RSP is +5% YTD while QQQ bleeds — the "S&P 493" trade is working right now.

🔥

HOT Trades — Feb 17, 2026 | High-Conviction Setups

ACTIONABLE

⚠️ Risk Management Note

All trade ideas below are based on verified pre-market prices. Entry zones may shift at market open. Always use stops. Position size based on your own risk tolerance. Past setups do not guarantee future results. This is educational analysis, not financial advice.

XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDR — Iran/Hormuz Catalyst

★★★★★

A+ CONVICTION

BULLISH

Verified Pre-Mkt Price:+1.2% (pre-mkt leader)

Entry Zone:Pullback to open, $97–$99 range (verify at open)

Target 1:+3–5% if WTI breaks $65

Target 2:+7–10% if full Hormuz closure scenario

Stop:Below open day low / Geneva talks resolution

Catalyst Risk:Geneva talks success = hard reversal

🎯 Thesis: Iran IRGC conducting live-fire drills and partially closing Strait of Hormuz is a direct supply disruption signal. WTI near $64/bbl is approaching the $65 key breakout level. XLE is the cleanest expression of this trade. Top holdings: XOM, CVX, EOG, COP, SLB — all beneficiaries of geopolitical oil premium. Options: XLE calls 1-2 weeks out, focus on strikes just above open. RISK: Geneva negotiations scheduled TODAY — a diplomatic breakthrough reverses this trade hard. Size accordingly.

📊 Source: TradingTerminal.com pre-mkt data 6:40 AM ET Feb 17, 2026 | XLE sector performance verified

XOM / CVX

Exxon Mobil / Chevron — Oil Majors Breakout Play

★★★★☆

A CONVICTION

BULLISH

XOM Last Close:Verify at open (Energy sector +1.2% PM)

Entry:At/near open or first 15-min pullback

Target:+4–7% swing over 2–3 sessions

Stop:-2% from entry or Hormuz reopening news

🎯 Thesis: XOM is the dominant beneficiary of Middle East oil supply risk premiums. $28.8B in 2025 earnings, $20B buyback program ongoing. CVX similarly positioned. Both names have the balance sheet to thrive in a sustained oil price environment above $60. Goldman says 2.5% GDP growth supports hiring and energy demand. BofA FMS notes record-high capex expectations. Options play: XOM calls 30–45 DTE, 1-2 strikes OTM.

RTX / LMT / ITA

Defense Contractors — Iran Geopolitical Premium

★★★★☆

A CONVICTION

BULLISH

Catalyst:Trump Feb 6 EO "Addressing Threats by Iran" + Hormuz drills

Entry:At/near open — ITA ETF or individual names

Target:+3–6% over next 5–10 trading sessions

Stop:-2.5% from entry

🎯 Thesis: Direct U.S.-Iran tensions with missiles fired near US carrier group area, Trump EO from Feb 6 authorizing economic pressure on Iran — defense spending narrative is directly tied to current events. RTX (Raytheon), LMT (Lockheed), NOC (Northrop), GD (General Dynamics) all benefit from elevated Middle East threat environment. ITA ETF is the cleaner expression for less volatile exposure.

MASI / DHR

Masimo / Danaher — $10B M&A Catalyst

★★★★★

A+ CONVICTION

BULLISH

Catalyst:FT: Danaher nears $10B deal to acquire Masimo (MASI)

MASI Expected Open:+15–25% gap-up (M&A premium)

Entry Strategy:Wait for confirmation gap-up, do NOT chase blindly

DHR Entry:Verify at open — could pull back on deal dilution fear

Stop MASI:If deal denied/canceled = sharp reversal

🎯 Thesis: M&A catalyst — FT reporting Danaher in advanced talks to acquire Masimo (medical devices/monitoring) for ~$10B. Classic acquisition premium trade. MASI will gap up significantly. DHR may dip initially on acquisition financing concerns, but the strategic fit is strong. If confirmed, MASI is an immediate long. Watch for competing bidder rumors that could push price even higher. Sympathy plays: other medical device names like NXGN, MDXG.

📊 Source: The Fly News @theflynews 5:28 AM Feb 17, 2026 citing Financial Times

GLD / GDX / NEM

Gold & Gold Miners — BofA FMS $6,200 Target

★★★★☆

A CONVICTION

BULLISH

Gold Spot Price:$4,937/oz (BofA survey morning)

BofA WA Target:$6,200 (weighted avg); 19% see $7,000+

GLD Entry:At/near open or pullback to VWAP

GDX (Miners) Entry:Miners = leveraged gold play (2–3x beta)

Stop:-2% from entry / yield spike reversal

🎯 Thesis: Gold is trading at $4,937 — near ATH levels. BofA's February Global Fund Manager Survey confirms institutional conviction: average peak target $6,200, 19% see $7,000+. Combined with: (1) Iran Hormuz closure spiking safe-haven demand, (2) 10-yr yields at lows of the year (4.03%), (3) Geopolitical risk premium building — gold is the perfect storm trade. GDX miners offer leveraged upside. NEM, AEM, GOLD are individual picks with strong balance sheets.

📊 Source: Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone 5:35 AM Feb 17, 2026 / BofA Global FMS February 2026

PANW

Palo Alto Networks — Earnings Today After Close

★★★☆☆

B WATCH

EARNINGS PLAY

Earnings:Today — After Market Close (Feb 17)

PANW Backdrop:Cybersecurity remains critical amid US-Iran tensions

Key Watch:Platformization metrics, ARR, billings guidance

Options Play:Straddle pre-earnings or wait for post-earnings reaction

Risk:AI disruption narrative could hurt platform guidance

🎯 Thesis: With US-Iran tensions escalating, cybersecurity demand from government and energy sector is elevated. Wedbush notes "strong cybersecurity deal activity" and keeps PANW as top cyber pick. However, current market AI disruption narrative is a risk to PANW's Copilot-dependent platform story. Play: Consider a defined-risk earnings straddle or wait for the post-earnings gap reaction. Don't bet directionally with firm conviction pre-print.

WMT

Walmart — PT Raised $150 at Redburn + Thu Earnings

★★★★☆

A CONVICTION

BULLISH

PT Raised:Rothschild/Redburn: $150 from $110 (+$40 raise)

Earnings Date:Thursday, February 19, 2026 (Thu morning)

Revenue Forecast:$190.35B | E-comm +27% prior qtr

Entry:Today's dip/pullback into Thu earnings

Stop:Below today's open or -2.5%

🎯 Thesis: A $40 price target raise from a major European research house + WMT earnings Thursday is a classic "buy into the catalyst" setup. Prior earnings showed +3.33% EPS surprise, +1.16% rev surprise. E-commerce +27%. Walmart is the consumer health barometer for Q4 2025 — critical data point for the macro narrative. GIS cutting its outlook citing "weak consumer sentiment" creates a LOW BAR for WMT to beat. New CEO John Furner's first major report. Sympathy plays: COST, TGT, KR. Options: WMT calls 1 week out (Feb 21 or Feb 28 expiry).

GPC

Genuine Parts — Spin-off Catalyst (WSJ)

★★★★☆

A CONVICTION

BULLISH

Catalyst: WSJ: GPC separating into 2 public companies (auto + industrial)

Spin-off Logic: Unlocks hidden value — classic bullish catalyst

Entry: At/near open gap-up — check pre-mkt price

Target:+5–10% near-term on restructuring premium

Stop: If WSJ report is denied/walked back

🎯 Thesis: Spin-off announcements historically drive 5–15% immediate premium as the market reprices the sum-of-parts value. GPC separating automotive (NAPA) from industrial distribution creates two focused, independently valued companies. WSJ report suggests this is well-advanced. GPC also has earnings this week (Feb 17). Strong risk/reward on confirmation.

📊 Source: The Fly @theflynews 5:01 AM Feb 17, 2026

📋

Earnings Calendar — Week of Feb 17–21, 2026

THIS WEEK

DATE

TICKER / COMPANY

TIME

IMPACT

WATCH FOR

TUE 2/17

MDT — Medtronic

Pre-mkt

MOD

Dividend king, healthcare defensive; MASI sympathy

TUE 2/17

PANW — Palo Alto

After close

MAJOR

Platformization, ARR; AI disruption risk + Iran cyber demand

TUE 2/17

CEG — Constellation Energy

Varies

MOD

Nuclear energy / AI power demand story

TUE 2/17

GPC — Genuine Parts

Varies

MOD

Spin-off announced today — double catalyst

WED 2/18

DASH — DoorDash

After close

MOD

AI disruption to logistics; delivery demand trends

WED 2/18

BKNG — Booking Holdings

After close

MAJOR

Travel demand; Iran risk = travel disruption concern

WED 2/18

ET — Energy Transfer

AM

MOD

Midstream; benefits from oil price environment

THU 2/19

WMT — WALMART 🔑

Pre-mkt

MAJOR ⭐

CONSUMER HEALTH BAROMETER. New CEO John Furner. PT raised $150 at Redburn. LOW BAR set by GIS cut.

THU 2/19

DE — Deere & Co.

AM

MOD

Agricultural machinery; tariff exposure; farm demand

THU 2/19

CVNA — Carvana

After close

MOD

Used car AI platform — AI disruption narrative risk

NEXT WK

NVDA — NVIDIA 🚨

Feb 25

MAJOR ⭐⭐

THE market event. Citi: "very high bar to clear." Gross margins, Anthropic/OpenAI investments, Groq competition. Could flip market direction.

🎯 Sympathy Stocks to Watch From Today's Earnings

MDT beat → Sympathy: MASI (already M&A), SYK, BSX medical devices | PANW beat → Sympathy: CRWD, ZS, FTNT cybersecurity | CEG beat → Sympathy: VST, NRG, nuclear/power AI demand plays | GPC spin-off → Sympathy: AZO, O'Reilly (ORLY) automotive parts

💰

Money Rotation Map — Feb 17, 2026

💸 CAPITAL FLOWING INTO:

• 🛢️ Energy (XLE, XOM, CVX, OXY, SLB) — Iran Hormuz premium

• 🪖 Defense (RTX, LMT, NOC, GD, ITA) — Geopolitical escalation

• 🥇 Gold / Silver (GLD, SLV, GDX, NEM) — Safe haven + BofA $6,200 target

• ⚡ Utilities (XLU, NEE, DUK) — Defensive, rate-friendly with 10yr at 4.03%

• 🏥 Healthcare (XLV, MDT, MASI, DHR) — Defensive + M&A catalyst

• 🏗️ Industrials / Materials — US manufacturing reshoring continues

• ⚖️ Equal-Weight S&P (RSP) — Outperforming QQQ; $RSP +5% YTD vs QQQ negative

💸 CAPITAL ROTATING OUT OF:

• 💻 Mag-7 Tech (AMZN, AAPL, NVDA, GOOG, META) — AI disruption + valuation compression

• 📊 SaaS/Software (CRM, NOW, APP, PINS) — AI substitution accelerating

• ✈️ Airlines (DAL, UAL) — Oil cost spike risk from Iran

• 🌏 Japan / Int'l Equities (EWJ -2.6% PM) — Dollar strength + risk-off

• 📱 Consumer Discretionary — GIS warning signals weak consumer

• 💳 Financials (XLF) — AI disruption spreading to banking/fintech

• 🪙 Crypto (BTC, ETH, altcoins) — Extreme Fear at 13/100; ETF outflows

₿

Bitcoin & Crypto Sentiment Breakdown

EXTREME FEAR: 13/100

🔴 Crypto Market Status: Extreme Fear / Risk-Off

Total market cap: $2.33T (-0.94% 24h). Fear & Greed Index: 13/100 (EXTREME FEAR). Bitcoin dominance: 60%. ETF products saw second consecutive week of outflows totaling $1.7B. Year-to-date outflows now total $1B. BTC hit a high of $126,000 in October 2025 — currently trading near $67,800, down ~46% from ATH. "Bearish cycle confirmed" per TradingView analysis. Capital rotation moving INTO Layer-2 chains (Arbitrum $ARB leading with $1.2B+ inflows) away from Bitcoin spot.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

$67,806

-1.22% (24h) | -29.21% (1yr)

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

$1,968

-0.09% (24h) | -40.05% (1yr)

◎ Solana (SOL)

$85.04

-0.32% (24h) | -52.10% (1yr)

✕ XRP

$1.45

-1.88% (24h) | -45.38% (1yr)

🅑 BNB

$617.56

+0.02% (24h) | -33.77% (1yr)

◉ DOGE (Dogecoin)

$0.0987

-2.91% (24h) | -61.78% (1yr)

🔷 TRON (TRX)

$0.2818

+0.46% (24h) | +18.01% (1yr) ✅

🔴 Bearish Crypto Signals

• F&G at 13 — Extreme Fear (lowest in months)

• BTC down 29% from 1yr ago, -46% from ATH $126K

• ETF outflows $1.7B last 2 weeks; $1B YTD negative

• MAG7.ssi index -1.0% sector mover (per SoSoValue)

• DeFi.ssi, MEME.ssi both declining

• Global equities risk-off = crypto risk-off

• $MSTR down 65% over last 6 months (per X)

🟢 Watchlist / Silver Linings

• ARB (Arbitrum) — $1.2B+ inflows, Layer-2 conviction

• TRX (TRON) +18% YTD — only top-10 in positive 1yr

• Trump-linked Truth Social filing crypto ETFs (BTC, ETH, CRO)

• Treasury Sec. Bessent: "Clarity Act will lift Bitcoin price"

• BTC holding $65K support for multiple sessions

• Harvard reducing BTC ETF stake, adding Ether (diversification)

• Institutional conviction in ARB, Layer-2 ecosystem strongest

🎯 Crypto Trade Setup — Layer-2 Rotation Play

Arbitrum ($ARB) is seeing the strongest capital inflows despite broad market fear. In "Extreme Fear" environments, capital concentrates in highest-conviction layer-2 ecosystems. If BTC holds $65K support and the broader risk sentiment stabilizes post-Geneva talks, watch ARB, MATIC (Polygon), and OP (Optimism) for recovery bounces. Key risk: BTC breakdown below $65K triggers cascade to $58K per analyst warnings. Hold off on crypto longs until Hormuz/Geneva clarity.

📊 Prices verified: SoSoValue.com + CoinMarketCap Feb 17, 2026 | Screenshot data confirmed | Fear & Greed: CMC 13/100

📅

Economic Calendar — Week of Feb 15–21, 2026

TIME (ET)

EVENT

ACTUAL

EST.

IMPACT

8:30 AM

Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jan)

TBD

Est. TBD

HIGH 🔴

8:30 AM

Retail Sales MoM (Jan)

TBD

Est. TBD

HIGH 🔴

8:30 AM

NY Empire State Manufacturing (Feb)

TBD

Est. 3

MOD 🟡

10:00 AM

CB Employment Trends (Jan)

TBD

—

LOW 🟢

10:00 AM

Business Inventories MoM (Dec)

TBD

—

LOW 🟢

10:00 AM

NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb)

TBD

Est. 41

MOD 🟡

12:45 PM

Fed's Barr Speech ⚠️

—

WATCH

HIGH 🔴

WED 2/18

FOMC Meeting Minutes (Jan 28) ⭐

—

2:00 PM

MAJOR ⭐

📊 Economic Data Impact Analysis

Retail Sales (8:30am): A strong read = risk-on for consumer retail but could hurt rate cut expectations. Weak read = validates GIS warning, bearish consumer sentiment, possibly adds to defensive positioning. FOMC Minutes (Wed): Market pricing ~3 cuts for 2026. Any hawkish tone = yields spike, tech selloff deepens. Fed Barr Speech (12:45pm): Watch for any comments on bank regulation, digital assets, or rate path. GS notes 18% recession probability — solid GDP growth of 2.5% is still the base case.

🧠

Overall Market Strategy — Feb 17, 2026

🎯 DCG Command Center Game Plan — Feb 17, 2026

Today is a tale of two markets: ENERGY + DEFENSE + GOLD vs. TECH + AIRLINES + CONSUMER CYCLICAL. The Iran Strait of Hormuz closure is the dominant overnight catalyst. Markets are re-opening after a holiday weekend into a geopolitical shock — this is not the environment to be aggressive on dip-buying tech. The playbook is: (1) Ride the energy/defense/gold surge into the open, (2) Watch the 6,811 S&P 100-day MA like a hawk, (3) Position for WMT earnings Thursday, (4) Manage PANW earnings risk tonight, (5) Set alerts for Geneva US-Iran talk outcomes — the WILDCARD that could reverse ALL energy longs in minutes.

✅ BULLISH MARKET SENTIMENT TODAY:

• Goldman: DM Activity Indicator at 12-month HIGH — macro backdrop solid

• GS: GDP growth ~2.5%, job losses in AI-exposed industries "moderate"

• BofA FMS: Investor sentiment highest since June 2021

• RSP (equal-weight) +5% YTD — broad market health outside mega-cap

• 10-yr yields at lows of year (4.03%) — supports rate-sensitive sectors

• WMT earnings positioned for beat (GIS sets LOW bar)

• M&A catalyst: DHR/MASI $10B deal = market health signal

• GPC spin-off unlocks value in industrial/auto distribution

🔴 BEARISH MARKET RISKS TODAY:

• Iran Strait of Hormuz partially closed — geopolitical wildcard

• Nasdaq down 4%+ pre-market from reference — 5th weekly decline

• AMZN headed for 10 straight down days — Mag-7 still bleeding

• AI disruption spreading beyond software to retail, logistics, financials

• VIX at 22+ — elevated fear, suggests continued choppiness

• S&P 500 just above critical 100-day MA (6,811)

• GIS cutting FY26 outlook — consumer weakness signal

• Crypto Extreme Fear 13/100 — risk-off signal across all asset classes

🎓

Mastermind & Social Intelligence Insights

📊 JaguarAnalytics Key Insight:

"The pending doom in $SPX is so well expected this time it's almost laughable. Everyone owns Mag-7 that keeps going down, nobody owns S&P-493 that keeps going higher. $RSP is up +5% YTD." — This is the #1 trade thesis for this week: the ROTATION from concentrated Mag-7 into the equal-weight 493 names. Defensive sectors, value, industrials, healthcare.

📊 Mike Zaccardi / GS Key Data Points:

• Global Value vs Growth: BEST performance since 2018 (GS)

• Manufacturing capacity picking up after 10 years underinvestment

• BofA FMS: Investors say companies are "overinvesting" in capex (record high %)

• GS: Layoff scare from last fall now "less concerning"

• Markets moving MORE risk-on beneath the surface (equal-weight outperformance)

🔑 DCG Mastermind Summary — What Traders Are Focused On This Week:

1. NVDA Earnings (Feb 25) — every conversation on the desk centers on this. Citi says "very high bar to clear." This is the market reset event for AI narrative. 2. WMT Thursday — the consumer health check. Can retail hold up despite GIS and consumer sentiment weakness? 3. Iran/Hormuz Resolution — Geneva talks today. Any deal = energy longs get stopped out fast. Any breakdown = energy runs. 4. FOMC Minutes Wednesday — "no hurry" language will be picked apart. 5. Rotation Trade — the RSP vs QQQ divergence is the macro meta-trade of 2026 so far.

📆

Seasonality & Market Patterns

📊 Seasonal Context: February

February is historically the weakest month of the year for the S&P 500. The "Presidents' Day week" effect often sees lighter-than-normal volume in the early sessions. The 5-week Nasdaq losing streak echoes 2022 patterns. However, Goldman's activity indicators at 12-month highs suggest the macro backdrop is NOT recessionary — this is a sentiment/narrative correction, not a fundamentals breakdown. Similar patterns in 2016, 2018, and early 2022 saw violent snap-back rallies after maximum pessimism. BofA FMS investor sentiment at highest since June 2021 = potential contrarian signal.

🔮 Market Theme Recap

• PRIMARY THEME: AI Disruption Selloff (spreads sector by sector)

• SECONDARY THEME: Iran/Hormuz Geopolitical Risk Premium

• THIRD THEME: Rotation — Mag-7 out, S&P-493 in

• COUNTER THEME: Strong macro (GS 2.5% GDP) vs narrative

• WILDCARD: NVDA earnings Feb 25 — resets everything

• K-SHAPED ECONOMY: BofA notes rising corporate profit vs labor income share = structural market support for equities even as consumers struggle

🚀 Level Up Your Trading with AI Trading Skool

Join a real community of traders who trade every day. Get live trade alerts, AI-powered market analysis, sector rotation signals, and access to the same tools the pros use — before the market moves.

🎓 JOIN AITRADINGSKOOL.COM →

Real traders. Real results. Real community. Not hype — just edge.

⭐

Final Summary & Key Takeaways — Feb 17, 2026

🏆 TOP 5 TRADE IDEAS FOR TODAY (Ranked by Conviction)

#1

XLE / XOM / CVX — Energy sector on Iran Hormuz closure. WTI near $64 breakout to $65+

A+

#2

MASI / DHR — $10B M&A acquisition (FT report). MASI gap-up expected. Wait for open confirmation

A+

#3

GLD / GDX / NEM — Gold at $4,937, BofA survey $6,200 target + Iran safe-haven demand + yields at lows

A

#4

WMT — Buy into Thu earnings. PT raised to $150. GIS sets low bar for consumer. New CEO catalyst.

A

#5

RTX / LMT / ITA — Defense sector on Trump Iran EO + Hormuz drills. Geopolitical premium trade.

A

✅ BULLS NEED:

• $ES holds above 6,811 (100-day MA)

• Geneva US-Iran talks = positive outcome

• Retail Sales beat at 8:30am

• PANW earnings beat tonight

• WMT beat Thursday

🔴 BEARS NEED:

• $ES breaks below 6,808 / 6,811 support

• Iran escalates further, Hormuz stays closed

• Retail Sales miss — confirms GIS warning

• Fed Barr hawkish — kills rate cut hopes

• PANW guidance miss on AI disruption

⚡ WILDCARDS:

• Trump tweets/statements on Iran TODAY

• FOMC Minutes Wednesday 2pm

• NVDA earnings Feb 25 — the reset event

• Danaher/MASI deal confirmation

• Any BTC move below $65K = crypto cascade

📰

Categorized News Wrap-Up

📈 STOCK MARKET NEWS

• GPC separating into 2 public companies (WSJ) — BULLISH spin-off

• WMT PT raised $150 from $110 at Rothschild — pre-Thu earnings

• DHR nears $10B deal for MASI (FT) — major M&A catalyst

• AVGO (Broadcom) PT cut to $458 from $480 at Citi

• WBD (Warner Bros) downgraded Neutral from Buy at Redburn

• GIS cuts FY26 outlook — consumer sentiment weakness

• DVLT (Datavault AI) updates revenue est. +30% to $38–40M

• RIVN (Rivian) Q4 beat + 47-59% delivery growth FY26 guidance

🏛️ WHITE HOUSE IMPACT

• Feb 6 EO: "Addressing Threats by Iran" — 25% tariffs on buyers of Iranian goods

• Feb 11 EO: Coal power for military bases — bullish ARCH, CEIX, BTU

• India tariffs removed (Feb 6) — bilateral trade positive

• US-Iran Geneva talks scheduled TODAY Feb 17 — wildcard event

• Trump max pressure on Iran = sustained energy/defense premium

🌏 TRUMP TRADING NEWS

• Iran Hormuz closure = direct result of Trump "max pressure" policy

• Khamenei "you won't destroy Iran" — direct counter to Trump ultimatum

• WTI near $64 — Trump's energy policies driving supply disruption premium

• Defense stocks = direct beneficiary of Trump Iran EO (Feb 6)

• Coal EO (Feb 11) = ARCH, CEIX, BTU trades active

• EU Shein probe — US domestic apparel beneficiaries

₿ CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

• BTC at $67,806 — -1.22% (24h), Fear & Greed 13/100

• ARB (Arbitrum) $1.2B+ inflows — strongest Layer-2 capital rotation

• Harvard reduces Bitcoin ETF stake, adds Ether exposure

• Truth Social/Trump Media filing for BTC+ETH and CRO ETFs

• Treasury Sec. Bessent: "Clarity Act will lift BTC price"

• MSTR down 65% over 6 months — crypto leverage pain

• BTC ETF outflows: $1.7B (2 weeks), $1B YTD total outflows

• SoSoValue: Over $6B in tokens to unlock in March 2026 — SUPPLY WATCH

⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is produced by DCG COMMAND CENTER for educational and informational purposes only. All content represents the analysis and opinions of the DCG team and contributing analysts as of the date of publication. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. All trading involves significant risk of loss. Past performance of any trade idea does not guarantee future results. You should always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. All prices cited are verified pre-market estimates and should be confirmed at time of trade. Entry/exit levels are illustrative and should be adjusted to current market conditions. The DCG Command Center, its employees, affiliates, and contributors may hold positions in securities mentioned in this newsletter. Trade responsibly. Protect your capital. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.

📧 Join the community at aitradingskool.com | Follow DCG Command Center for daily market updates | © 2026 DCG Command Center. All rights reserved. | Published: Tuesday, February 17, 2026 | Pre-Market Edition

Stop guessing. Start knowing.

We've mapped out the ENTIRE year — every month, every sentiment shift, every high-probability window

— so you can trade with confidence while others trade with hope.

Inside the 2026 Oracle Trading Forecast, you'll see:

✅ Month-by-month market sentiment

✅ When to be aggressive vs. when to protect capital

This is how professionals plan their year. Now it's yours.

�� ACCESS YOUR 2026 FORECAST HERE

The traders who win in 2026 will be the ones who saw the map before the journey started.

You can login and get access here.

https://dcgoracleoutlook.com/get-started

Subscribe to our live trading room and take the trades with us.