Hot PPI, Cold Breadth, and a Crypto Inferno — Where Smart Money Hid at Midday

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Mid-Day Trading Update - AI Powered Trading With DCG Mastermind August 14th 2025

📊 GLOBAL SNAPSHOT

🔹 SPY $645.00 +0.40% — Record highs despite hot PPI, resilient tape showing strength

🔹 QQQ $580.34 +0.44% — Tech holding near ATHs, momentum intact above key support

🔹 DXY $103.45 +0.25% — Dollar strengthening on hot inflation, Fed hawkish pivot

🔹 VIX $15.08 +4.14% — Still low volatility despite PPI shock, complacency remains

🔹 TNX 10Y $4.30 +0.08% — Yields rising on inflation concerns, rate cut odds falling

🔹 GOLD $2,485 -0.30% — Pressure from rising yields and stronger dollar

🔹 OIL $76.20 +1.20% — Energy strength on geopolitical tensions and demand

🔹 BTC $117,981 +2.58% — Crypto resilient despite macro headwinds, ETF flows supportive

🔹 ETH $4,730 +3.20% — Outperforming BTC with BlackRock $500M buy rumored

🔹 TOTAL3 $1.85T +2.44% — Altcoin strength continuing broader crypto momentum

📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR

🔹 Key Events Today: 🔴 PPI Shock — July PPI 0.9% vs 0.2% exp (hottest since June 2022)

🔹 CME FedWatch: September cut odds drop to 67% from 90% post-PPI

🔹 Trump Speaking: Live at 1PM contradicting inflation data, saying "no inflation at all"

🔹 Tomorrow: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment data

🔄 SECTOR SNAPSHOT

🔹 Top 3 ETF Inflows: XLK +2.1% (tech resilience), XLE +1.8% (energy momentum), XLF +1.2% (rate beneficiary)

🔹 Top 3 ETF Outflows: XLU -0.8% (rate sensitive), XLRE -0.5% (real estate pressure), XLP -0.3% (defensive rotation)

🔹 Rotation Entries: Energy/Financials on rate backup, Tech holding despite macro

🧠 OPTIONS FLOW & GAMMA MAP

🔹 Unusual Flow: AMZN $18M+ calls (up 4%), TSLA $18M+ call selling (bearish flow), OPEN 24K Sep calls

🔹 Gamma Zones: SPY 6440-6494 flag range, QQQ 580+ gamma magnet, IWM $228 call surge

🔹 Max Pain: SPY 6450, QQQ 575, critical for weekly expiry

🟣 DARK POOL & INSTITUTIONAL SNAPSHOT

🔹 Block Trades: AMZN massive institutional accumulation, Z $2M+ June calls, DLO post-earnings flow

🔹 Confirmation/Divergence: Institutions buying tech dips while retail chases breakouts

🔹 IWM: $1.19M $228 calls (OTM opening trade) — small cap rotation bet

💼 PRE- & POST-EARNINGS TRACKER

🟢 Pre-Earnings: AMAT (tonight), JD (tomorrow), DEERE (tomorrow)

🔴 Post-Earnings: DLO +15% (beat/raise), COHR steady (mixed), AKRO +8% (bio strength)

📆 MONTHLY SEASONALITY EDGE

🔹 Top Performers: Energy (tariff beneficiary), Tech (resilient), Crypto (ETF flows)

🔹 Weak Names: Utilities (rate sensitive), REITs (yield competition), Bond proxies

🧠 SENTIMENT DASHBOARD

🔹 Fear & Greed: 73 (Greed) — High but not extreme

🔹 AAII: 52% Bulls (elevated but manageable)

🔹 NAAIM: 85% Long (high institutional exposure)

🔹 VIX/VXV: 0.85 (backwardation, short-term vol pickup)

🔹 BTC Dominance: 58.05% (healthy but declining)

Bias: 🟢 Bullish — Resilient despite macro headwinds

🪙 CRYPTO SUMMARY & TRADE IDEAS

🔹 BTC: $117,981 (+2.58%) — ETF flows offsetting macro concerns, $140K targets intact

🔹 ETH: $4,730 (+3.20%) — Outperforming on BlackRock $500M rumor, approaching ATH

🔹 TOTAL3: $1.85T (+2.44%) — Altcoin strength suggesting risk-on rotation

🔹 Meme Coins: DOGE +3.28%, momentum building on golden cross pattern

🟢 BTC Long Setup

• Entry: $117,500-$118,500

• Target: $125,000 | Stop: $115,000

• Catalyst: ETF inflows, institutional adoption, Treasury halt of sales

🎯 MID-DAY GAME PLAN

🔹 Momentum Direction: Continuation — Market ignoring PPI, focusing on earnings/flows

🔹 VWAP Zones: SPY holding 6467, QQQ above 580 critical for momentum

🔹 Index Leaders: Tech leading (QQQ), Small caps (IWM) showing relative strength

🔹 Breakout/Fade Setups: AMZN breakout, TSLA potential fade, OPEN momentum continuation

🔹 Shortlist: AMZN, OPEN, DLO, Z for immediate long exposure

🎯 BOTTOM LINE

Despite the hottest PPI reading since March 2022, markets continue to display institutional resilience with record highs intact. The disconnect between inflation data and market action suggests either:

1. Fed Credibility — Markets trust Fed's data-dependent approach

2. Earnings Power — Corporate pricing power offsetting input costs

3. Liquidity Flows — ETF/institutional flows overwhelming macro concerns

Strategy: Stay long momentum names with strong institutional backing (AMZN, DLO), fade distribution patterns (TSLA), and prepare for volatility around tomorrow's retail sales data.

Risk Management: Watch 10Y yields above 4.35% and VIX above 17 as key warning signals for momentum breakdown.

📘 Disclaimer: All trade ideas are for educational/research purposes only. Based on momentum, catalysts, technicals, volume. AI forecasts probabilistic. Do your own due diligence; trade at own risk.

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