🎃 HALLOWEEN RALLY UNLEASHED: Big Tech Earnings Ignite Market Surge as US-China Trade Deal Nears Finish Line

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DCG COMMAND CENTER - Market Intelligence Report
Friday, October 31, 2025 | Halloween Edition 🎃

📊 KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR FRIDAY'S TRADING SESSION

Market Open Status: Currently Trading
Primary Catalyst: Massive tech earnings beats from Apple & Amazon
Major Development: US-China trade deal expected to be signed next week
Market Sentiment: Risk-on rotation into mega-cap tech

🔥 WHAT TRADERS NEED TO KNOW NOW:

1. Apple & Amazon crushed Q4 earnings - Both stocks hitting all-time highs, lifting entire market

2. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirms US-China trade framework ready - Deal signing expected within days

3. S&P 500 futures at 6,871 - Testing key resistance with bullish momentum intact

4. Bitcoin consolidating at $109K-$110K - Ending October red for first time in 7 years

5. November historically strongest month for stocks - Seasonal tailwinds building

🚀 OVERNIGHT MARKET RECAP

Futures Exploding Higher on Tech Earnings

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures surged Friday morning following impressive earnings beats from Apple and Amazon, with the major indices exploding higher on strong tech results and cooling trade tensions.

Current Levels (as of market open):

• SPY: $680.83 (Last close: $679.83, +1.47%)

• ES Futures: 6,871.75 (+16.25, +0.24%)

• QQQ: Up 1.2% pre-market

• DIA: Up 0.18%

Key Technical Levels for ES Futures:

• Resistance: 6,893 | 6,916 | 6,960

• Support: 6,857 | 6,841-43 | 6,827

💰 MAJOR EARNINGS CATALYSTS DRIVING TODAY'S ACTION

🍎 APPLE (AAPL) - MASSIVE BEAT SENDS STOCK TO ALL-TIME HIGHS

Current Price: $271.34 (Last close: $271.34, touching ATH $277.32 intraday)

Apple earnings were hot thanks to iPhone 17 sales, with EPS of $1.85 above estimates of $1.77 and revenue of $102.47 billion beating estimates of $102.24 billion.

Key Highlights:

• ✅ Q4 EPS: $1.85 vs. $1.77 est. (BEAT)

• ✅ Revenue: $102.47B vs. $102.24B est. (BEAT)

• ✅ Guidance: CEO Tim Cook expects Q1 revenue growth of 10-12% (above consensus)

• ⚠️ China Sales: Slight miss, but Cook says returning to growth next quarter

• 🚀 iPhone 17: Supply constrained due to high demand

Analyst Reactions:

• Evercore ISI: Outperform, $300 PT

• JPMorgan: Overweight, $305 PT

• Morgan Stanley: Overweight, $305 PT

• Citi: Buy, $315 PT

Trading Opportunity Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5) Entry Zone: $268-$272 Target 1: $285 (+5%) Target 2: $300 (+10%) Stop Loss: $260

📦 AMAZON (AMZN) - CLOUD DOMINANCE ON FULL DISPLAY

Current Price: $246.73 (Last close: $223.04, +10.67% - touching ATH $250.50)

Amazon's stock jumped 12% in premarket trading as investors applauded the e-commerce company's massive earnings beat, with particularly strong AWS cloud growth of 20%.

Key Highlights:

• ✅ AWS Revenue Growth: +20% YoY (crushing expectations)

• ✅ Cloud Margins: Expanding significantly

• ✅ Guidance: Strong holiday quarter outlook

• 🎯 Institutional Action: $175M in February $220 calls bought (45,000 contracts)

Options Activity:

• February $220 calls: Massive accumulation ($175M position)

• April $290 calls: New buying at $9.03

• Institutional money flowing into longer-dated calls

Trading Opportunity Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/5) Entry Zone: $243-$248 (on any pullback) Target 1: $260 (+5%) Target 2: $280 (+13%) Stop Loss: $238

🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-CHINA TRADE DEAL: GAME-CHANGER FOR MARKETS

Treasury Secretary Bessent: Deal Signing Expected Next Week

The U.S. and China could sign a trade agreement as soon as next week, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating the Kuala Lumpur agreement was finished, and signatures could be exchanged possibly as soon as next week.

Deal Framework Highlights:

Under the agreement, Trump said the 20% tariffs on China related to fentanyl were being reduced to 10%, bringing the total effective tax rate on Chinese imports from 57% down significantly, and China had agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans from U.S. farmers this year, as well as at least 25 million metric tons over each of the next three years.

Key Points:

• ✅ Tariff Reduction: 100% threatened tariffs AVOIDED

• ✅ Rare Earth Minerals: China delaying export controls for 1 year

• ✅ Soybeans: 12M metric tons purchase commitment for 2025

• ✅ TikTok: Deal framework allows American control

• ✅ Meeting: Trump-Xi summit completed successfully in South Korea

Market Impact:

• 🟢 Positive for: Agriculture stocks (soybeans), Tech (reduced tariff fears), Semiconductors

• 🟢 Sectors to Watch: Materials, Industrials, Technology

• 🟢 Risk Appetite: Significantly improved

📈 SECTOR ROTATION & MONEY FLOW ANALYSIS

BULLISH SECTORS 🟢

1. TECHNOLOGY - Mega-cap earnings driving sector

   • Leaders: AAPL (+2%), AMZN (+10.67%), NVDA (+0.46%)

   • Money Flow: Institutional accumulation accelerating

2. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY - Strong on Amazon & retail

   • Amazon dominating

   • Retail sentiment improving into holidays

3. COMMUNICATION SERVICES - NFLX stock split announced

   • Netflix: 10-for-1 split announced (+2.86%)

   • Meta recovering from post-earnings selloff

4. INDUSTRIALS - Trade deal optimism

   • Supply chain beneficiaries rallying

BEARISH SECTORS 🔴

1. ENERGY - Oil prices weak

   • XOM: -1.5% on mixed earnings

   • WTI Crude: ~$60/barrel

   • CVX: Modest gains on Hess acquisition boost

2. HEALTHCARE - Lagging market

   • Sector rotation out continues

   • Down -0.42% on day

3. UTILITIES - Risk-on rotation away

   • Down -0.77% as investors chase growth

💎 HIGH-CONVICTION TRADE IDEAS FOR MONDAY

#1: AAPL February $285 Calls ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thesis: Apple's guidance beat and iPhone 17 supply constraints signal sustained upside into Q1 2026. Whale trader already positioned with massive February call spread.

The Setup:

• Entry: $280-$285 range

• Target 1: $300 (+6%)

• Target 2: $315 (+10%)

• Stop: Below $275

• Timeframe: 60-90 days

Catalyst Timeline:

• ✅ Q4 earnings beat complete

• 📅 Holiday iPhone 17 sales (Nov-Dec)

• 📅 China growth return (Q1 2026)

• 📅 Apple AI features rollout

Options Flow: Large trader rolled Nov $220 calls to 42,000 February $255 calls ($115M position)

Risk Rating: MODERATE
Conviction Level: 9/10

#2: AMZN April $280 Calls ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thesis: AWS growth acceleration + margin expansion + holiday e-commerce = explosive Q4/Q1 setup.

The Setup:

• Entry: $246-$252 range

• Target 1: $270 (+8%)

• Target 2: $290 (+15%)

• Stop: Below $240

• Timeframe: 90-120 days

Why Now:

• Cloud computing tailwinds strengthening

• AI infrastructure demand surging

• Holiday quarter setup bullish

• Margin expansion story intact

Options Flow: April $290 calls seeing fresh accumulation at $9.03

Risk Rating: MODERATE
Conviction Level: 10/10

#3: SPY December $700 Calls ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thesis: Year-end rally traditionally strong + November best month historically + Fed still accommodative.

The Setup:

• Entry: SPY $678-$682

• Target: $700 by December 31 (+3%)

• Stop: Below $670

• Timeframe: 60 days

Supporting Factors:

• 75K contracts still holding into year-end

• November-December historically strongest period

• Seasonality extremely bullish

• China trade deal tailwind

Risk Rating: LOW-MODERATE
Conviction Level: 8/10

#4: TSLA Volatility Play ⭐⭐⭐

Current Price: $440.10 (Last close: $440.10)

Catalyst: Elon Musk hinted on Joe Rogan podcast that Tesla might unveil flying car this year

The Setup:

• Strategy: Straddle or calls on speculation

• Entry Zone: $438-$445

• Upside Target: $475 (+8%)

• Stop: $425

Risk Factors:

• ⚠️ High speculation

• ⚠️ No confirmed timeline

• ⚠️ Musk history of over-promising

Options Activity: Moderate call buying in weekly

strikes

Risk Rating: HIGH
Conviction Level: 6/10

💻 OPTIONS FLOW HIGHLIGHTS

Massive Institutional Positions Detected:

1. AAPL: 42,000 February $255 calls ($115M position) - Whale rolled from November

2. AMZN: 45,000 February $220 calls ($175M) - Major accumulation

3. SPY: 75K+ December $700 calls holding - Year-end rally bet

4. QQQ: December $655 calls bought under $10

5. IREN: $64 strike next week calls ($3.5M) - Gap fill play

6. ORCL: 9M worth of January 2026 puts - Possible gap fill to $240

7. UNH: $335 calls (300 qty, $345K) for Nov 14 - Bullish swing

Market Tide (as of 1:05 PM EST):

• Net Call Premium: $2.74M

• Net Put Premium: $115M

• Net Volume: -895K (PUT BIAS)

• Action: Defensive positioning despite rally

🪙 BITCOIN & CRYPTO SENTIMENT

Bitcoin Consolidating at Key Resistance

Current Price: $109,305 (24h: +0.42%)

Bitcoin is one of the biggest gainers today, rising by 2%, with the rate having broken the local resistance of $110,463, and if buyers can hold the initiative above that mark, the upward move is likely to continue to the $112,000 zone.

Technical Setup:

• Support: $107,000 | $105,000

• Resistance: $110,463 | $112,000 | $115,000

• Key Level: Must hold above $109,000 for bullish continuation

October Performance:

• 📉 Down ~4% for the month

• 📉 First red October since 2018

• 🔄 Breaking 6-year "Uptober" streak

November Outlook:

• November is historically Bitcoin's best month, averaging 46% gains across 12 years from 2013, making Q4 the best quarter for BTC price rallies with average gains of 78%

• If history repeats, BTC could target $150K by year-end

🔥 Breaking: Steak 'n Shake Announces Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Steak 'n Shake announced the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, stating all payments received in Bitcoin will be placed in their SBR

Altcoin Market:

• ETH: $3,827 (-1.67% on day)

• SOL: $185.43 (+0.05%)

• XRP: $2.51 (+2.82%)

• BNB: $1,078.31 (+0.32%)

Top Gainers:

• ZCash (ZEC): +5%

• Aerodrome Finance (AERO): +4%

• Dash (DASH): +1%

Top Losers:

• Pump.fun (PUMP): -10%

• DoubleZero (ZZ): -9%

• Hyperliquid (HYPE): -8%

• AI Sector overall: -8.6%

📰 KEY NEWS & CATALYSTS

Federal Reserve Speakers:

Fed's Bostic supported the rate cut because he still feels the economy is in restrictive territory, while Fed's Hammack would have preferred to hold rates steady this week.

Key Quotes:

• Fed's Hammack: "We're now around my estimate of neutral" | "We need to maintain some restriction to bring down inflation"

• Fed's Bostic: "December cut is far from a foregone move" | "Every meeting is live"

• Consensus: December rate cut increasingly uncertain

Market Reaction:

• 10-year Treasury yields elevated

• Dollar strength persisting

• Rate cut probability for December: ~40%

White House & Political Impact:

Trump stated he will not start renegotiations with Canada and announced no strikes on Venezuela.

Government Shutdown Update:

• Now 30+ days - approaching longest in US history

• US judge ruled Trump administration's plan to suspend SNAP food aid benefits during shutdown is likely unlawful

• Treasury Sec Bessent: "What good does meeting with Democrats do? They dug in."

Market Impact: Neutral to slightly negative, but trade deal progress offsetting concerns

📊 S&P 500 SECTOR PERFORMANCE (TODAY)

Top Performers:

1. 🟢 Consumer Discretionary: +2.55% (Amazon effect)

2. 🟢 Energy: +0.75% (Chevron earnings beat)

3. 🟢 Communication Services: +0.27%

4. 🟢 Industrials: +0.14%

Laggards:

1. 🔴 Utilities: -0.77%

2. 🔴 Materials: -0.44%

3. 🔴 Consumer Staples: -0.42%

4. 🔴 Healthcare: -0.42%

🎯 MONEY ROTATION SIGNALS

Where Smart Money is Moving:

ROTATING INTO: 💰

• Mega-cap Technology (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT)

• Cloud Computing plays (AMZN AWS, GOOGL Cloud)

• AI Infrastructure (NVDA still in play despite consolidation)

• Consumer Discretionary (holiday setup)

ROTATING OUT OF: 📉

• Small Caps (IWM weakness continuing)

• Defensive sectors (Utilities, Healthcare)

• Energy (oil price pressure)

• Meme stocks and speculative plays

Key Insight: The Kobeissi Letter noted that SPY has gapped up at the open on 69% of all trading days over the last 6 months, the highest percentage since 1997, slightly higher than during the Dot-Com run in 1999

🔮 WEEK AHEAD PREVIEW

Major Events Coming:

📅 Monday, November 3, 2025:

• Market digestion of Friday's moves

• China trade deal signing likely

• November seasonality begins

📅 This Week:

• NVDA earnings (highly anticipated)

• Additional tech earnings

• Employment data

• ISM Manufacturing PMI

📅 November Key Dates:

• Nov 6-7: FOMC Meeting (rate decision)

• Nov 10: Netflix stock split effective

• Thanksgiving Week: Typically bullish

🎃 HALLOWEEN MARKET PATTERNS & SEASONALITY

Historical Context:

"Halloween Effect" in Markets:

• October 31st traditionally marks end of weaker seasonal period

• November-April typically strongest 6-month period

• This year aligns with historical pattern

November Statistics:

• November has been the best month for SPY with strong historical returns

• Average return: +2-3%

• Q4 2023: +57% for Bitcoin

• Q4 2024: +48% for Bitcoin

Year-End Rally Setup:

• ✅ Earnings season mostly positive

• ✅ Fed still accommodative despite hawkish tone

• ✅ China trade deal removing major overhang

• ✅ Seasonal tailwinds building

• ⚠️ Valuations extended (monitor for pullbacks)

⚠️ RISK FACTORS TO MONITOR

What Could Derail the Rally:

1. Fed Policy Error - Hawkish surprise in December

2. China Deal Collapse - Framework fails to materialize into signed agreement

3. Earnings Disappointments - NVDA or other mega-caps miss

4. Government Shutdown - Prolonged closure impacts economy

5. Valuation Concerns - Market priced for perfection

6. Geopolitical Shocks - Unexpected international crisis

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY Support Levels:

• $680 (gap fill level - tested today) ✅

• $670 (critical support)

• $660 (major breakdown level)

SPY Resistance Levels:

• $690 (next target)

• $700 (psychological + year-end target)

• $710 (extended rally scenario)

💪 MASTERMIND SOCIAL SENTIMENT

What Elite Traders Are Saying:

Bullish Camp:

• "November seasonality + trade deal + strong earnings = melt-up potential" - Jason (@3PeaksTrading)

• "Volume ratios and AD lines holding green, decent breadth despite profit taking" - Jason

• "Mag7 exceptional year but investors taking profits at highs" - Ripster

Cautious Camp:

• "This market is on fire but not easy to trade, need patience and smaller size" - Kulturdesken

• "Anand: This type of environment will punish dogmatic opinions real quick. Be like water."

• "VIX knocking on 18's door - there won't be candy there for stocks" - Mike Zaccardi

Options Flow Experts:

• JustByAI flagged: $NVDA calls, $HOOD puts, $APP puts, $INSM puts

• Market Tide showing PUT BIAS despite rally

• Large $1B put wall building at SPY $670

🎓 EDUCATIONAL INSIGHT: Reading Whale Activity

How to Spot Smart Money Moves:

Apple Example: A single whale trader's journey shows institutional thinking:

1. September: Bought 15K Nov $220 calls ($23M)

2. Today: Rolled entire position to 42K Feb $255 calls ($115M)

What This Tells Us:

• ✅ Conviction in upside remains strong

• ✅ Extending timeframe = expects sustained rally

• ✅ Increasing size = adding to winner

• ✅ Strike selection = targeting $270-$280 range

How to Apply:

• Follow the smart money but with appropriate sizing

• Use longer-dated options for thesis trades

• Don't fight whale flows - they often know something

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🎯 FINAL WORD: GAME PLAN FOR NEXT WEEK

Monday's Opening Strategy:

IF Market Gaps Up >0.5%:

• Wait for pullback to VWAP

• Look for dip-buying opportunities in AAPL, AMZN

• Avoid chasing extended names

IF Market Opens Flat:

• Lean bullish on confirmed patterns

• Buy dips in mega-cap tech

• Target year-end rally continuation

IF Market Gaps Down:

• Aggressive buying opportunity

• Focus on quality names (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT)

• Use weakness to establish positions

Top 3 Priorities:

1. Scale into AAPL on any $268-$272 retrace

2. Hold AMZN through $250 breakout

3. Monitor SPY $700 Dec calls for year-end positioning

Biggest Risks:

• NVDA earnings disappointment next week

• Fed speakers turning more hawkish

• China deal signing delays

Biggest Opportunities:

• November seasonality kicking in

• China trade tailwind accelerating

• Year-end rally setup strengthening

📞 DISCLAIMER

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes financial advice, investment advice, or trading advice. All trading ideas presented carry significant risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Always consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

DCG Command Center is not a registered investment advisor. All analysis and trade ideas are based on technical analysis, market data, and publicly available information. Individual results may vary.

📈 MARKET STATISTICS SUMMARY

Friday October 31, 2025 - Close:

• SPY: $679.81 (confirmed close)

• ES Futures: 6,871.75

• Nasdaq: +0.62%

• Russell 2000: Underperforming large caps

• VIX: 17.68 (+4.55%)

• Bitcoin: $109,305

• 10Y Treasury: Elevated (hawkish Fed impact)

Volume Analysis:

• Above average on tech strength

• Breadth improving despite some profit-taking

• Institutional participation increasing

Put/Call Ratio:

• Slightly elevated (defensive positioning)

• $1B put wall at SPY $670

• Call buying in AAPL, AMZN, SPY

🌟 CLOSING THOUGHTS

Halloween 2025 delivered the treats traders were hoping for - blockbuster earnings from Apple and Amazon, a breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations, and renewed bullish momentum heading into historically the strongest two months of the year.

The setup for a November-December rally is increasingly compelling: ✅ Earnings beats from market leaders
✅ Trade war de-escalation
✅ Seasonal tailwinds strengthening
✅ Fed still relatively accommodative

However, remain nimble. This market rewards flexibility and punishes rigid thinking. The smart money is positioned for upside but hedged for volatility.

Trade wisely, manage risk, and may the odds be ever in your favor.

🎃 Happy Halloween & Happy Trading! 🎃

DCG COMMAND CENTER
Your Edge in Modern Markets

Next Newsletter: Monday, November 3, 2025

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