🚀 GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ENDS: MARKETS EXPLODE HIGHER AS SENATE BREAKS 40-DAY STALEMATE

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📊 Relief Rally Sparks Major Market Reversal After Historic Government Shutdown Resolution

⚡ KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR TODAY'S SESSION

BREAKING: Senate passes bill 60-40 to end longest shutdown in U.S. history (40 days). House vote expected Wednesday at 4PM ET. Markets surge on liquidity restoration and political stability.

💰 VERIFIED CLOSING PRICES (November 10, 2025):

• SPY: $681.44 (+1.56% / +$10.47) - S&P 500 Index closed at 6,837.75

• NVDA: $199.05 (+5.79% / +$10.90)

• BTC: $104,341 (+0.87% / +$913)

• CRWV: $105.61 (+1.54%) - Down from $110.70 intraday high

• NBIS: $109.95 (-1.20%) - Earnings catalyst pending

🔥 TODAY'S TRADING FOCUS:

1. Government reopening relief rally continuation

2. AI infrastructure shake-up (CRWV guidance miss, NBIS Meta deal)

3. Sea Limited (SE) earnings report before open

4. Bitcoin consolidation above $105K support

5. Sector rotation into cyclicals and defensives

📈 MARKET SENTIMENT OVERVIEW

BULLISH CATALYSTS ✅

Government Shutdown Resolution - MAJOR CATALYST

• Senate advanced bill 60-40 with 8 Democrats crossing aisle, markets rallied immediately on liquidity restoration hopes

• Federal workers to receive back pay, services resume

• Economic data releases restart (CPI, jobs reports delayed)

• S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq surged on November 10 as Senate breakthrough ignited wave of optimism

AI Infrastructure Mega-Deals

• NBIS signs $3B agreement with Meta over 5 years for AI infrastructure delivery

• Microsoft $17.4B-$19.4B GPU deal with NBIS (5-year commitment)

• NBIS believes it can achieve annualized run-rate revenue of $7-9B by end of 2026

• OpenAI and Meta driving demand for GPU infrastructure

Crypto Market Strength

• Bitcoin surged 4.48% in last 24 hours, trimming weekly losses after bouncing off $102K Fibonacci support

• Ethereum delivered 6.48% gain, outperforming BTC and trading around $3,617

• Strive acquired 1,567 BTC for $162M at $103,315 average, bringing total holdings to 7,525 BTC

BEARISH HEADWINDS ⚠️

AI Infrastructure Reality Check

• CoreWeave (CRWV) delivered disappointing full-year guidance of $5.05B-$5.15B vs $5.29B consensus

• Third-party data center developer behind schedule, CEO noted one data center impacting delivery

• Multiple analyst downgrades: JPMorgan to Neutral ($110 PT), Mizuho to Neutral ($120 PT)

• CRWV down -37% from October rebound high

Big Tech Exits

• SoftBank sold entire 32.1M NVDA stake for $5.83B in October

• Meta Chief AI Scientist Yann LeCun plans to exit company to launch own AI startup

• Intel's AI chief Sachin Katti jumps ship to OpenAI

Economic Concerns

• Goldman Sachs Job Growth Tracker slowed to 50K in October, estimating official nonfarm payrolls show decline of 50K due to government's deferred resignation program

• GS Layoff Tracker at highest level in about 14 years

• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.2 from 98.8 (forecast 98.3)

🎯 HIGH-CONVICTION TRADING IDEAS

TIER 1: IMMEDIATE ACTION TRADES ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

1. NBIS (Nebius Group) - AI Infrastructure Play

Rating: 9.5/10 - STRONG BUY

Entry Zone: $108-$112 (current: $109.95) Targets:

• T1: $120 (+9.1%)

• T2: $130 (+18.2%)

• T3: $143 (+30.1%) Stop Loss: $102 (-7.2%)

Catalyst Analysis:

• $3B Meta deal over 5 years for AI infrastructure

• $17.4B-$19.4B Microsoft GPU agreement locked in

• Q3 revenue $146.1M with guidance for $7-9B ARR by end 2026

• CICC initiates coverage at Outperform with $143 price target

Trade Strategy: Scale in on any dip below $110. Major winner in AI infrastructure with better execution than CRWV. Meta deal validates business model. ATM equity program provides growth financing flexibility.

Risk Factors: High volatility (9.43% daily average), capital-intensive business model, potential dilution from ATM program

2. SPY/QQQ - Relief Rally Momentum

Rating: 8.5/10 - BUY

Entry: SPY $678-$682 (current: $681.44) Targets:

• T1: $690 (+1.3%)

• T2: $700 (+2.7%)

• T3: $710 (+4.2%) Stop: $675 (-0.9%)

Catalyst Analysis:

• Government shutdown resolution restores market liquidity and removes political overhang

• Tom Lee expects year-end performance chase as SPX aims for third-straight 20% annual gain

• Economic data releases resuming provides clarity for business decision-making

Trade Strategy: Core long position for relief rally. Government reopening removes major uncertainty. Fund managers underperforming need to chase into year-end. Watch for $690 breakout.

3. SE (Sea Limited) - Earnings Catalyst Play

Rating: 8.0/10 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Entry Zone: $150-$156 (current: $155.05) Targets:

• T1: $165 (+6.4%)

• T2: $180 (+16.1%)

• T3: $200 (+29.0%) Stop Loss: $145 (-6.5%)

Catalyst Analysis:

• Q3 earnings report Tuesday before open

• Consensus: $0.59 EPS vs $0.75 expected, Revenue $5.99B vs $5.97B expected

• SE raises FY25 Shopee GMV growth to >25% from prior 20%, affirms Garena bookings >30% YoY

• E-commerce GMV $32.2B (+28.4% YoY), Adj EBITDA $874.3M vs $521.3M YoY

Trade Strategy: High-risk earnings play. Beat on revenue with raised guidance could spark 10-15% move. Shopee momentum in Southeast Asia and Brazil driving growth. SeaMoney expansion providing upside.

Risk Factors: History of missing estimates (4 straight quarters), competition from TikTok Shop and MercadoLibre, stock down 17.5% pre-earnings

TIER 2: SWING TRADE OPPORTUNITIES ⭐⭐⭐⭐

4. RKLB (Rocket Lab) - Space Infrastructure

Rating: 7.5/10 - BUY

Entry: $50-$52 (current: $51.90) Targets:

• T1: $56 (+7.9%)

• T2: $62 (+19.5%) Stop: $48 (-7.5%)

Catalyst Analysis:

• Q3 loss of $0.03 per share beat consensus of $0.10 loss by $0.07

• Revenues rose 48% YoY to $155.08M vs $151.8M consensus

• Guides Q4 revenues in-line with expectations

• Government space contracts resuming post-shutdown

Trade Strategy: Strong execution in growing space economy. Government reopening unlocks contract awards. Cleanly beat earnings with revenue growth accelerating.

5. HOOD (Robinhood Markets) - Fintech Recovery

Rating: 7.0/10 - BUY

Entry: $160-$170 Target: $179 (+5-11%) Stop: $155

Catalyst Analysis:

• President Capital upgrades to Buy from Neutral, raises PT to $179 from $162

• Crypto trading volume increasing with BTC above $105K

• Government shutdown end supports market activity recovery

TIER 3: AVOID/SHORT CANDIDATES ⭐

6. CRWV (CoreWeave) - DOWNGRADE TO HOLD

Rating: 4.0/10 - AVOID

Analysis:

• Guidance miss with FY25 revenue $5.05B-$5.15B vs $5.29B consensus trails badly

• Third-party data center developer delays impacting delivery timeline

• Multiple downgrades: BAC to $140, Jefferies to $155, Mizuho to $120

• Second consecutive quarter of earnings miss

• Down -37% from October high, broken ascending trend

Current Price: $105.61 Resistance: $115-$120 (former support turned resistance) Support: $95-$100 (next major support zone)

Strategy: Wait for capitulation and technical reset. Avoid until clear bottoming pattern emerges around $95-$100 zone. Supply chain issues need resolution before re-entry.

💎 BITCOIN & CRYPTO ANALYSIS

Bitcoin (BTC) - Consolidation Above Key Support

Current Price: $105,472 24h Change: +0.87% (+$913)

Technical Levels:

• Critical Support: $102,000 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement)

• Immediate Resistance: $107,588

• Major Resistance: $109,208 → $112,188

• Ultimate Target: $126,210 (All-time high from October 6)

Analysis: BTC bounced off $102K Fibonacci support with volume exploding 35.76% to $67.69B. 4-hour chart shows reclaim of $105K support with rally above middle Bollinger Band. RSI rose sharply above 65 reflecting renewed buying interest.

Key Pattern: Price made false breakout of local resistance at $106,482, if daily bar closes far from it, correction to $105K possible

Trading Strategy:

• Bulls: Accumulate $103K-$105K for run to $110K+

• Bears: Wait for break below $102K for short entries

• Range Traders: Sideways $105K-$108K likely near-term

Institutional Flow:

• Strive (Vivek Ramaswamy) acquired 1,567 BTC for $162M, bringing holdings to 7,525 BTC following Nasdaq listing

• Digital assets saw $1.17B outflows last week led by Bitcoin and Ethereum

Ethereum (ETH) - Outperforming BTC

Current Price: $3,617 24h Change: +6.48%

Levels:

• Support: $3,531 → $3,438

• Resistance: $3,651 → $3,803

• Target: $3,680-$3,800

ETH breaking above $3,531 resistance and touching $3,656 intraday high, just above critical $3,651 barrier. Chart shows strong bullish engulfing candle with RSI at 62.98. Price inside upper Bollinger Band suggesting sustained buying.

Trade: Look for hold above $3,651 for continuation to $3,800. Failure means retest of $3,438.

🏢 SECTOR ROTATION ANALYSIS

MONEY FLOWING INTO:

1. Technology (Leading) 📱

• Strength: +2.56% (highest sector performance)

• Catalysts: AI infrastructure deals, government reopening supporting tech spending

• Top Performers: NVDA (+5.79%), NBIS (Meta deal), AI infrastructure

• Play: Continue overweight tech exposure

2. Consumer Discretionary 🛍️

• Strength: +1.31%

• Catalysts: Holiday season approaching, consumer confidence stabilizing

• Play: Accumulate on dips

3. Communication Services 📡

• Strength: +1.04%

• Catalysts: SE earnings, digital advertising recovery

• Play: Selective long positions

MONEY FLOWING OUT OF:

1. Real Estate 🏠

• Weakness: -0.07%

• Headwind: Interest rate uncertainty

2. Consumer Staples 🥫

• Weakness: -0.37%

• Headwind: Defensive rotation ending

3. Utilities ⚡

• Weakness: -0.03%

• Headwind: Risk-on sentiment returning

🎲 FUTURES & KEY LEVELS

S&P 500 E-mini Futures ($ES)

Current: 6,837.75 Overnight: -19.00 (-0.28%)

Critical Levels:

• Resistance: 6,900 → 6,920 (ATH)

• Support: 6,800 → 6,760 → 6,720

• 200-Day MA: 6,580

• 50-Day MA: 6,735

Strategy:

• Bulls: Defend 6,800. Break above 6,850 targets new ATH

• Bears: Watch for rejection at 6,850-6,900

• Key: Close above 6,840 confirms relief rally continuation

📰 BREAKING NEWS IMPACT

WHITE HOUSE & POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

Government Shutdown Resolution:

• Senate passed bill 60-40 Monday night to fund federal government through January, ending longest shutdown in U.S. history

• House could start voting as early as 4PM Wednesday, multiple votes expected

• Trump said Monday he supports funding deal negotiated between Republicans and moderate Senate Democrats

Market Impact:

• Immediate: Relief rally as political uncertainty removed

• Short-term: Economic data releases resume, providing market clarity

• Medium-term: Federal spending restarts, supporting cyclical sectors

Healthcare Subsidy Debate:

• ACA premium tax credits extension deferred to December vote

• Health insurers CI -1.7%, HUM -2.0% on uncertainty

• Separate vote required by mid-December

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION STATEMENTS

Tariff Developments:

• Trump: "Will figure something out if SCOTUS rules against tariffs"

• GS expects IEEPA tariffs ruling December 2025 or January 2026, if blocked could take months to refund $115-145B collected

• Swiss close to sealing tariff deal with U.S. for 15% tariffs, could be sealed Thursday or Friday

Economic Policy:

• Treasury Secretary Bessent: "Inherited an affordability crisis"

• Bessent: "Gigantic drop in mortgage rates"

• Bessent: "Can see substantial job growth from AI investments"

Market Implications: Tariff resolution timeline provides clarity. Lower rates supporting housing and consumer spending.

🌍 GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS

CHINA

• PBOC dismisses loan slowdown concerns, framing it as normal part of economy's shift away from traditional growth drivers

• PBOC pledges to maintain "relatively loose" financing conditions and strengthen credit support

• Property sector declining influence contributes to slower loan expansion

EUROPE

• Google to invest around $6B in Germany

• Microsoft will spend $10B on AI data center in Portugal

• Vodafone delivers strong H1 FY26 results, revenue up 7.3% to €19.6B

• HSBC appoints Wei Sun Christianson to board for Asia expansion

AUSTRALIA

• Australia Consumer Confidence best since late 2021

Market Impact: Global AI infrastructure buildout accelerating. European telecom strength signals economic resilience.

🔮 TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES

Trump-Aligned Opportunities

1. Energy & Infrastructure

• Government reopening unlocks infrastructure spending

• Traditional energy policy supportive

2. Crypto-Friendly Policy

• Bitcoin holding $105K with institutional accumulation

• Regulatory clarity expected under Trump administration

3. Defense & Aerospace

• RKLB benefiting from space program priorities

• Government contracts resuming

4. Financial Services

• Deregulation theme intact

• HOOD upgraded on fintech opportunity

📊 EARNINGS CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS

THIS WEEK'S KEY REPORTS:

Tuesday, November 11:

• SE (Sea Limited) - Before open

  • Consensus: EPS $0.59, Revenue $5.99B

  • Company raised FY25 guidance

  • Watch for Shopee GMV growth, SeaMoney expansion

Wednesday, November 12:

• House vote on shutdown bill (4PM ET)

• Multiple retailers report

Thursday, November 13:

• Tech sector earnings continue

• Initial jobless claims (delayed data)

Upcoming Week:

• NVDA earnings November 19 - Major catalyst for AI sector

⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES

Position Sizing:

• High Conviction (Tier 1): 3-5% per position

• Medium Conviction (Tier 2): 2-3% per position

• Speculative (Tier 3): 1-2% per position

Stop Loss Discipline:

• Honor all stops - no exceptions

• Move stops to breakeven after +5% gain

• Trail stops on winning positions

Portfolio Allocation:

• 60% Long equity exposure (relief rally play)

• 20% Crypto (BTC/ETH above support)

• 10% Options strategies

• 10% Cash (for opportunities)

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📝 CLOSING SUMMARY

Bottom Line:

The government shutdown resolution is the dominant catalyst driving Tuesday's session. After 40 days of uncertainty, political stability returns alongside market liquidity. This sets up a classic relief rally into year-end.

Three Primary Themes:

1. Relief Rally Momentum: SPY targeting $690-$700 as shutdown overhang lifts

2. AI Infrastructure Shake-Up: NBIS winning (Meta/$3B deal) vs CRWV losing (guidance miss)

3. Crypto Consolidation: BTC holding $105K support, ETH outperforming with $3,800 target

Actionable Focus:

• Core Longs: SPY, NBIS, QQQ (relief rally plays)

• Tactical Longs: SE (earnings), RKLB (government reopening), HOOD (fintech recovery)

• Crypto: BTC $103K-$105K accumulation zone

• Avoid: CRWV until technical reset, health insurers (ACA uncertainty)

Risk Factors:

• House vote Wednesday could introduce volatility

• Economic data releases may surprise (delayed reports)

• AI infrastructure valuations stretched

• Year-end tax loss selling pressure

Market Conditions: Favorable for bulls with government reopening, but remain nimble. Use tight stops. Don't chase extended moves. Let the market come to you.

🚀 TRADE WHAT YOU SEE, NOT WHAT YOU THINK

The DCG Command Center team focuses on actionable price action and confirmed catalysts. We don't predict - we react to what the market shows us with disciplined risk management.

Key Principles:

1. Price action > predictions

2. Risk management > being right

3. Execution > emotion

4. Community > isolation

📅 Tomorrow's Watch List:

• SE earnings reaction

• SPY break above $690

• NBIS follow-through on Meta deal

• BTC $107K breakout attempt

• Sector rotation continuation

Prepared by the DCG COMMAND CENTER Trading Team Real traders. Real results. Real community.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. All trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Prices and data verified as of market close November 10, 2025.

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