🔥 GAZA CEASEFIRE BREAKTHROUGH SPARKS MARKET SURGE 🔥

Friday, October 10, 2025 | Market Opens In Hours

⚡ KEY THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE THE BELL

MAJOR CATALYST: Israel-Hamas ceasefire went into effect after midnight local time following Trump's 20-point peace framework - first major breakthrough in 2-year conflict 🕊️

MARKET IMPACT: Risk-on sentiment returns as geopolitical premium fades. Oil down 0.8%, Gold pulls back from $4,000+ highs, Defense sector consolidates while AI infrastructure & reconstruction plays heat up 📈

OVERNIGHT WINNERS: Applied Digital (APLD) +21% on massive earnings beat | Bitcoin holding $121K support | China rare earth stocks surge on supply chain tension

TODAY'S FOCUS: S&P futures testing 6,750 resistance, Fed speakers (Goolsbee 9:45 AM, Musalem 1 PM), Michigan Consumer Sentiment 10 AM, Government shutdown continues (Day 10)

📊 S&P FUTURES ($ES) KEY LEVELS

Current: 6,721 (-0.48% from Thursday close)

• Major Resistance: 6,755 (September high)

• Support Levels: 6,680 | 6,650 | 6,600

• Bullish Above: 6,735 with volume

• Bearish Below: 6,680 break targets 6,650

Strategy: Futures showing consolidation after 7-day winning streak. Watch for breakout above 6,735 or breakdown below 6,680 for directional clarity.

🌍 BREAKING NEWS IMPACT ANALYSIS

MAJOR CATALYST: Gaza Ceasefire Takes Effect ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Israel and Hamas reached agreement on the first phase of a US-brokered ceasefire framework, with the truce taking effect after Israeli Cabinet approval on October 10th. This represents the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the war began two years ago.

Market Impact:

• Oil prices declining as Middle East risk premium fades - Brent down 0.77% to $65.74, WTI down 0.88% to $62.00

• Gold pulling back from record highs, down 0.5% to $4,019 as safe-haven demand moderates

• Defense stocks may see profit-taking short-term

• Infrastructure/reconstruction plays gaining attention

Trading Opportunities:

• Fade defense stocks on geopolitical de-escalation (LMT, RTX, NOC)

• Infrastructure/Energy plays for potential Gaza reconstruction (CAT, URI, solar)

• Risk-on rotation back into growth tech and cyclicals

CHINA ANTITRUST PROBE ON QUALCOMM ⭐⭐⭐

China launched antitrust investigation into Qualcomm over its acquisition of Israel's Autotalks, escalating US-China tech tensions.

QCOM Impact: Stock down $4 pre-market to $165.66

• Trade Rating: 6/10 - Watch for oversold bounce

• Entry Zone: $163-$165 support

• Risk: Further China retaliation on US tech

🚀 HOT TRADES TODAY: HIGH-CONVICTION SETUPS

1. APPLIED DIGITAL (APLD) - AI Infrastructure Moonshot 🌙

Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (9/10 Conviction)

Applied Digital stock surged over 21% after beating Q1 estimates with revenue of $64.22M vs $45.46M expected, and announced a new lease agreement potentially worth $11B

Current Price: $29.29 (After-hours Oct 9) Entry Zone: $28.50-$29.50 (first pullback) Targets:

• T1: $32.00 (+9.3%)

• T2: $35.00 (+19.6%)

• T3: $40.00 (+36.6%)

Catalyst Strength: Massive earnings beat, new data center deals, AI infrastructure boom Risk Level: High volatility - 20% moves common Stop Loss: Below $26.50

Sympathy Plays: IREN, CORZ, CRWV (AI data center space)

2. TESLA (TSLA) - Multiple Price Target Raises 🔋

Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (8/10 Conviction)

RBC Capital raised Tesla price target to $500 from $325, TD Cowen raised to $270 from $195

Current Price: $434.82 (Oct 9 close) Entry Zone: $428-$435 on any dip Targets:

• T1: $450.00 (+3.5%)

• T2: $475.00 (+9.2%)

• T3: $500.00 (+15.0%)

Catalysts: China sales data strong (90,812 vehicles in Sept), analyst upgrades, autonomous driving progress Volume: Above average with institutional accumulation Stop: Below $420

Strategy: Buy dips on any morning weakness, hold through momentum

3. RARE EARTH PLAYS - China Supply Chain Tension 🌏

Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10 Conviction)

Germany calls China's rare earth curbs a 'great concern,' companies must reduce dependence on critical materials

Top Picks:

• USAR (US Critical Minerals): $31.07 - Entry $30-$31, Target $35 (+13%)

• MP Materials (MP): Rare earth miner benefiting from de-China supply chain

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY): Alternative non-Chinese supplier

Catalyst: Supply chain diversification, critical materials shortage Timeframe: Multi-week to multi-month trend

💰 SECTOR ROTATION ANALYSIS

BULLISH SECTORS 📈

1. AI Infrastructure & Data Centers - APLD, IREN, CORZ leading

   • Money flowing into compute power for AI

   • Multi-billion dollar contracts driving revenue growth

2. Semiconductors (Select) - AMD, TSM upgraded

   • AMD raised to $270 PT from $195 at TD Cowen, TSM to $400 from $300 at Susquehanna

   • AI chip demand remains robust despite China headwinds

3. Technology (Large Cap) - Rotation back into mega-cap tech

   • Consumer Staples +0.32%, Technology -0.17% but finding support

   • MSFT, GOOGL, ORCL in buy-the-dip territory

4. Reconstruction/Infrastructure - New theme emerging

   • Potential Gaza reconstruction creates long-term infrastructure demand

   • CAT, URI, VMC could benefit

BEARISH SECTORS 📉

1. Energy - Risk premium collapsing

   • Materials -1.37%, Energy -1.36%

   • Oil services and exploration under pressure

2. Defense - Geopolitical de-escalation headwind

   • LMT, NOC, RTX may see profit-taking

   • Long-term thesis intact but near-term consolidation

3. Safe Havens - Rotation out of defensive

   • Gold pulling back from $4,000+

   • Utilities -0.25%, slow rotation out of defensives

📈 MONEY ROTATION INSIGHTS

FROM: Defense, Energy, Safe-Havens (Gold, Utilities) TO: AI Infrastructure, Growth Tech, Cyclical Recovery

BofA clients' cash position at 10% - lowest in 7 years, suggesting near-maximum deployment. This extreme positioning means any shock could trigger fast rotation.

What This Means: Markets highly extended, but momentum strong. Trade with tight stops and take profits on strength.

₿ BITCOIN & CRYPTO SENTIMENT BREAKDOWN

Bitcoin: $121,383 (-0.53%) Ethereum: $4,328 (-0.42%)

Bitcoin pulled back after challenging $124K, with analysts warning of overheated conditions in the short term. Market seeing profit-taking after strong rally.

Key Levels:

• Support: $120K-$121K (must hold)

• Resistance: $124K-$126K (all-time high zone)

• Bearish Below: $118K opens $115K

Crypto Miner Sentiment: IREN +3%, Cipher Mining leading with AI computing power demand

Strategy: Wait for clear support above $121K before re-entering. If $120K breaks, expect flush to $118K.

🏛️ TRUMP/WHITE HOUSE IMPACT & POLITICAL EDGE

Peace Deal Architect

Trump to undergo annual physical on October 10 according to White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt. President taking active role in Middle East diplomacy.

Trump floats dropping Spain from NATO alliance - maintaining unpredictable foreign policy approach.

Trump's Fed Chair candidates narrowed to 5: Waller, Bowman, Hassett, Warsh, and Rieder - nomination process advancing with interviews planned.

Market Impact:

• Ceasefire success boosts Trump's deal-maker narrative

• Fed Chair uncertainty continues - watch for hawkish/dovish signals

• NATO comments add geopolitical volatility layer

Trump Momentum Trades:

• Defense modernization plays (if Spain exits NATO)

• Energy independence themes

• "America First" infrastructure

📉 BEARISH WATCH LIST

Stocks Under Pressure:

1. QCOM - China antitrust probe, down $4 pre-market

2. LEVI - Q4 guidance miss, down $2 post-earnings

3. MOS - Production issues, phosphate volumes below expectations

4. HIMS - BofA lowers estimates, $28 PT maintained

5. DOX (Doximity) - Downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan

🎯 TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR

9:45 AM ET - Austan Goolsbee (Fed) Speaks

• Watch for inflation/rate cut commentary

10:00 AM ET - Michigan Consumer Sentiment

• Consensus: Watch for consumer confidence trends

• Important for Fed rate path assessment

1:00 PM ET - Alberto Musalem (Fed) Speaks

• Another opportunity for rate guidance

1:00 PM ET - Baker Hughes Rig Count

2:00 PM ET - Treasury Statement

💡 OVERALL MARKET STRATEGY FOR FRIDAY

Theme: Geopolitical relief rally meets consolidation at resistance

Bullish Above: SPY $671, QQQ $571, IWM $246 Bearish Below: SPY $666, QQQ $568, IWM $243

Playbook:

1. Morning - Watch for gap reaction to overnight news. If SPY opens above $670, look for continuation. If gaps down, wait for first bounce.

2. Mid-Day - Fed speakers could drive volatility around 10 AM sentiment data

3. Close - Friday positioning into weekend - reduce size if uncertainty increases

Best Opportunities:

• APLD and AI infrastructure on any dips

• TSLA momentum continuation

• Rare earth plays as multi-day trend

• Fade energy/defense on geopolitical relief

Risk Management: Market is extended after strong run. Don't chase. Wait for setups.

🔥 KEY CATALYST TRADES FOR NEXT WEEK

Earnings Season Ramps Up:

• Major banks report next week (JPM, WFC, C)

• Semiconductor earnings continue (ASML)

• Healthcare sector reports (UNH, JNJ)

Macro Events:

• CPI data potentially before month-end

• Fed meeting approaching (November 1-2)

• Government shutdown resolution?

Positioning: Build watchlists now for earning runners. Sector rotation likely accelerates.

🎓 DCG MASTERMIND GUIDANCE

Week Recap: Risk-on rally dominated despite government shutdown concerns. AI infrastructure and semis leading, with geopolitical news now adding new dimension.

Key Takeaway: Big gold gain plus big oil loss equals historical anomaly - market pricing in major geopolitical shift. This creates opportunities in transition.

Focus Areas:

• Don't chase extended names - wait for pullbacks

• Sector rotation from defensive to offensive continues

• Bitcoin support at $121K critical - break could trigger broader crypto selloff

• Fed speakers may hint at November rate decision

Risk Level: Medium-High (extended valuations, geopolitical shifts)

🚀 FINAL THOUGHTS: FRIDAY GAMEPLAN

Today's session will be driven by:

1. Overnight ceasefire news digestion

2. Fed speaker commentary on rates

3. Consumer sentiment data

4. Weekend positioning in extended market

Best Strategy: Selective aggression. Pick your spots, don't force trades. The market gave us APLD and Tesla setups - don't feel pressure to trade everything.

Risk Management: Use stops. Markets can reverse quickly at these levels.

Have a profitable Friday! 💰

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⚠️ DISCLAIMER

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All trading involves risk. Do your own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

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