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KEY THINGS TO KNOW - MONDAY NOVEMBER 24, 2025

Critical Market Developments for Monday's Trading Session:

· �� FED RATE CUT CONFIRMED: Fed Governor Waller advocating for December rate cut citing weak labor market

· �� TECH SECTOR SURGE: Google ($GOOGL) overtakes Microsoft in market cap, trading at $299.65 (+3.3%)

· �� S&P 500 FUTURES: Trading at 6,665 with bullish momentum heading into short trading week

· �� HEALTHCARE SHOCK: Novo Nordisk ($NVO) plunges 10% on failed Alzheimer's trial; Eli Lilly falls 5%

· �� HEALTHCARE WINNER: Oscar Health ($OSCR) explodes 20%+ pre-market on Trump ACA subsidy extension news

· ⚡ AI MOMENTUM: Nvidia ($NVDA) stabilizing at $180 after BofA defends fundamentals

· ☁️ CLOUD WARS: Amazon ($AMZN) initiates at Outperform by BNP Paribas, $320 price target

· �� CRYPTO RECOVERY: Bitcoin trading at $86,900 (+1.3%) after 30% monthly decline

· �� OIL COLLAPSE WARNING: JPMorgan predicts Brent crude may fall to $30s in 2027

· �� THANKSGIVING WEEK: Shortened trading week with Wednesday early close, Thursday closed

MARKET OVERVIEW & SENTIMENT

Current Market Snapshot (Pre-Market November 24, 2025)

• S&P 500 ($SPY): $659.03 | Friday Close | Pre-market showing strength

• S&P 500 Futures ($ES): 6,665.25 (+0.58%) | Key Level: 6,638 support

• Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ): Outperforming with tech sector leadership

• Dow Jones: 46,245 (+1.08% Friday) | Strong small-cap rotation

• Russell 2000: +2.80% Friday | Best performer

• VIX: 23.43 (-11.32%) | Fear subsiding

• 10-Year Treasury: 4.06% | Lowest since October Fed meeting

• Gold: $4,080/oz (+0.36%) | BofA targets $5,000 in 2026

• Bitcoin: $86,900 (+1.3% 24h) | Recovering from $80K lows

• Total Crypto Market Cap: $3.06T (+1.4%)

Market Sentiment Analysis

�� BULLISH CATALYSTS:
• Fed Governor Waller explicitly backs December rate cut
• Deutsche Bank sets most bullish S&P 500 target: 8,000 by end-2026
• Morgan Stanley: "Buy the dip now" - correction nearing end
• Tech sector showing renewed strength (Google +65% YTD)
• Healthcare sector surging on ACA subsidy extension hopes

�� CAUTION AREAS:
• Bitcoin down 30% from November peak - institutional capitulation
• Novo Nordisk drug trial failure creates pharma uncertainty
• Shortened trading week may reduce liquidity
• Year-end positioning could create volatility

BREAKING NEWS & MARKET MOVERS

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy

FED GOVERNOR WALLER BACKS DECEMBER RATE CUT ��

Fed Governor Christopher Waller made a decisive statement this morning:
• "I'm advocating for a rate cut at the December meeting"
• Cites weak labor market as primary concern
• Inflation "not a big problem" at 2.4-2.5% (ex-tariffs)
• January will be "tricky" with flood of data
• Meeting-by-meeting approach going forward

MARKET IMPACT: This is the clearest signal yet that the Fed will cut rates in December, with 73% probability now priced into futures markets. This dovish pivot is bullish for risk assets.

Major Stock Movers Pre-Market

TOP GAINERS ��:

1. OSCAR HEALTH ($OSCR) - Current: $16.50 (+22%)
   Catalyst: Trump ACA plan includes 2-year subsidy extension
   - Removes biggest policy risk to healthcare insurers
   - Stock was at $13.43 Friday close
   - Target zone: $23-25 (prior highs)
   - HIGH CONVICTION TRADE

2. GOOGLE ($GOOGL) - Current: $299.65 (+3.3%)
   Catalyst: Overtakes Microsoft in market cap ($3.62T vs $3.51T)
   - Gemini 3 AI momentum building
   - Cloud profitability expanding
   - NATO contract win announced
   - Friday close: $289.55
   - Breaking above $300 psychological level

3. AMAZON ($AMZN) - Current: $220.42 (+1.5%)
   Catalyst: BNP Paribas initiates at Outperform, $320 PT
   - Names AMZN as TOP PICK
   - Reinvent Conference Dec 1-5 coming
   - Friday close: $217.14

4. TESLA ($TSLA) - Current: $391.09 (+2.2%)
   Catalyst: Pre-market strength ahead of short week
   - Technical bounce from support
 
TOP LOSERS ��:

1. NOVO NORDISK ($NVO) - Current: $42.34 (-10.7%)
   Catalyst: Alzheimer's drug trial FAILED to meet endpoints
   - EVOKE trials showed no superiority vs placebo
   - Stock at lowest level since July 2021
   - Down 50%+ YTD
   - Friday close: $47.63

2. ELI LILLY ($LLY) - Down 5.2%
   Catalyst: Sympathy selloff with Novo Nordisk news
   - GLP-1 competitor concerns
 
3. ALIBABA ($BABA) - Notable gainer +6
   Catalyst: Qianwen app hit 10M downloads in first week

HIGH-CONVICTION TRADING IDEAS

TRADE #1: OSCAR HEALTH ($OSCR) - BUY

Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/5)
Setup: Healthcare Policy Catalyst Play

THESIS:
Trump administration announces 2-year ACA subsidy extension with income caps, removing the single biggest policy risk hanging over Oscar Health's business model.

VERIFIED PRICE DATA:
• Friday Close: $13.43
• Pre-Market: $16.50 (+22.4%)
• Entry Zone: $15.50-17.00
• Target 1: $20.00 (+21% from PM)
• Target 2: $23.00 (+39% from PM) - Prior resistance
• Stop Loss: $14.50

CATALYST ANALYSIS:
• ACA subsidy extension stabilizes Oscar's customer base
• Removes cliff risk that was pressuring stock
• Healthcare insurers benefit broadly
• Company has been undervalued due to policy uncertainty

RISK LEVEL: Medium (policy dependent but Trump admin supportive)
TIME HORIZON: 1-3 weeks
POSITION SIZE: 3-5% of portfolio

TRADE #2: GOOGLE ($GOOGL) - MOMENTUM PLAY

Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)
Setup: AI Leadership + Market Cap Victory

VERIFIED PRICE DATA:
• Friday Close: $289.55
• Pre-Market: $299.65 (+3.5%)
• Entry Zone: $297-302
• Target 1: $315 (+5%)
• Target 2: $330 (+10%)
• Stop Loss: $290

CATALYST ANALYSIS:
• Just overtook Microsoft in market cap for first time since 2018
• Gemini 3 AI gaining traction - Salesforce CEO endorsement
• Cloud profitability expanding ($3B quarterly)
• TPU chips reducing dependency on Nvidia
• NATO contract win adds momentum
• Up 65% YTD - strongest Mag 7 performer

TECHNICAL: Breaking above $300 psychological resistance
KEY LEVEL: $306.65 all-time high (Nov 20)

RISK LEVEL: Medium-Low
TIME HORIZON: 2-4 weeks
POSITION SIZE: 5-7% of portfolio

TRADE #3: AMAZON ($AMZN) - ACCUMULATION

Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)
Setup: Wall Street Top Pick + Catalyst Ahead

VERIFIED PRICE DATA:
• Friday Close: $217.14
• Pre-Market: $220.42 (+1.5%)
• Entry Zone: $218-223
• Target 1: $245 (+11%)
• Target 2: $265 (+20%)
• Stop Loss: $210

CATALYST ANALYSIS:
• BNP Paribas initiates at Outperform, names TOP PICK
• Price Target: $320 (+45% upside)
• AWS Reinvent Conference Dec 1-5 (major announcements expected)
• Strong Q3: 20% AWS growth, $132B run rate
• AI capacity constraints resolved

ANALYST CONSENSUS:
• 63 Buy ratings, 0 Sells
• Average PT: $294 (33% upside)
• Strong Buy rating

RISK LEVEL: Low-Medium
TIME HORIZON: 4-8 weeks
POSITION SIZE: 5-8% of portfolio

TRADE #4: NVIDIA ($NVDA) - BOUNCE PLAY

Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)
Setup: Oversold Bounce from Support

VERIFIED PRICE DATA:
• Friday Close: $178.88
• Pre-Market: $180.00 (+0.6%)
• Entry Zone: $176-182
• Target 1: $190 (+6%)
• Target 2: $200 (+11%)
• Stop Loss: $170

CATALYST ANALYSIS:
• Bank of America: "Stock drop due to misreading the numbers"
• Strong Q3: Revenue $57B, beat by $3B
• Free cash flow jumped 60% QoQ to $22B
• BofA maintains Buy rating, $275 target
• Blackwell shipments ramping

CONTRARIAN ELEMENT:
• Stock down 15% from peak despite strong fundamentals
• Concerns about DSO and inventory overblown per BofA
• Google TPU concerns overdone - NVDA still dominates

RISK LEVEL: Medium-High (volatility)
TIME HORIZON: 2-3 weeks
POSITION SIZE: 3-4% of portfolio

SECTOR ANALYSIS & ROTATION

BULLISH SECTORS ��

1. HEALTHCARE (+2.11%)
   Leaders: Oscar Health, healthcare insurers
   Catalyst: ACA subsidy extension news
   Top Picks: OSCR, INSP (+14 pre-market)

2. TECHNOLOGY (+1.96%)
   Leaders: Google, Amazon, cloud infrastructure
   Catalyst: AI momentum + Fed rate cut hopes
   Top Picks: GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT

3. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (+1.96%)
   Leaders: E-commerce and travel
   Catalyst: Holiday shopping season
   Top Picks: AMZN, CVNA (upgraded to OP, $400 PT)

4. COMMUNICATION SERVICES (+1.76%)
   Leaders: Google, Meta
   Catalyst: Digital advertising strength
   Top Picks: GOOGL, META ($800 PT from BNP)

5. FINANCIALS (+1.22%)
   Leaders: Banks benefiting from stable rates
   Catalyst: Fed clarity on December cut

BEARISH SECTORS ��

1. ENERGY (+0.63%) - WEAK
   Pressure: JPMorgan warns Brent oil may hit $30s in 2027
   Concerns: Oversupply concerns mounting
   Avoid: Energy sector broadly

2. PHARMACEUTICALS - MIXED
   Pressure: Novo Nordisk trial failure creates uncertainty
   Winners: Companies NOT in GLP-1 space
   Watch: Biogen (potential Alzheimer's beneficiary)

MONEY ROTATION SIGNALS ��

KEY ROTATION TRENDS:

• FROM: Large-cap Tech laggards
• TO: AI infrastructure leaders (Google, Amazon)

• FROM: Energy stocks
• TO: Healthcare policy plays

• FROM: Bitcoin/Crypto
• TO: Gold (safe haven rotation)

• BUILDING: Small-cap momentum (Russell +2.80% Friday)
  - Morgan Stanley recommends Small Caps as overweight
  - Rate cut environment typically favors small caps

₿ CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET UPDATE

BITCOIN PRICE ACTION:
Current: $86,900 (+1.3% 24h)
Friday Close: $84,535
Recent Low: $80,000
All-Time High: $126,000 (October 2025)
Decline from Peak: -30.8%

DEUTSCHE BANK ANALYSIS - Why Bitcoin Is Under Pressure:

1. Risk-Off Sentiment
   - Bitcoin trading like high-growth tech stock
   - Strong correlation with Nasdaq-100
   - Not acting as "store of value"

2. Hawkish Fed Signals (Now Reversing!)
   - Powell warned December cut not guaranteed
   - Waller's Monday comments should help

3. Stalling Crypto Regulation
   - Digital Asset Market Clarity Act progress slowed in Senate

4. Institutional Outflows
   - Record $3.55B in BTC ETF redemptions this month
   - BlackRock IBIT saw $27.8B in trading volume (capitulation signal)

5. Long-Term Holders Taking Profits
   - Weighted-average ETF entry price above $90K
   - Most ETF holders now underwater

CRYPTO MARKET CAP: $3.06T (+1.4%)

KEY ALTCOIN MOVES:
• Ethereum: $2,822 (+1.0%)
• Solana: $130.03 (-0.79%)
• XRP: $2.08 (+2.35%)
• Dogecoin: $0.1463 (+1.26%)

FIRST DOGECOIN ETF LAUNCHES!
• Grayscale Dogecoin Trust ($GDOG) begins trading on NYSE Arca
• First Dogecoin ETP in United States

CRYPTO TRADING STRATEGY:
�� NEUTRAL-CAUTIOUS on Bitcoin at $86K-87K
• Wait for break above $95K for renewed confidence
• Support zone: $82K-85K
• Resistance: $92K-95K

• Consider: Wait for Fed rate cut confirmation before heavy allocation
• Alternative: Gold positioning ($4,080, targeting $5,000 per BofA)

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

�� THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR

Economic Events - Monday November 24

⏰ 8:30 AM ET - Chicago Fed National Activity Index
⏰ 10:30 AM ET - Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
⏰ 11:30 AM ET - 3-6 Month Bill Auction
⏰ 1:00 PM ET - 2-Year Note Auction

WEEK OVERVIEW:
• Monday: Light data, Chicago Fed and Dallas Fed
• Tuesday: Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence
• Wednesday: Early close at 1:00 PM ET (Thanksgiving week)
• Thursday: Markets CLOSED for Thanksgiving
• Friday: Shortened session, light volume expected

KEY INSIGHT: Volume will thin significantly into Wednesday.
Avoid forcing trades - be selective and patient.

Notable Earnings This Week

MONDAY:
• Limited earnings - holiday week

TUESDAY:
• Agilent Technologies ($A) - Analysts expect $1.58 EPS
• Keysight Technologies - Forecasted $1.83 EPS

WEDNESDAY (Pre-Thanksgiving):
• Light schedule due to holiday

Key Conference: Clinical Trials in Alzheimer's Disease (CTAD) - Dec 3
• Novo Nordisk will present EVOKE trial details

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

�� S&P 500 FUTURES TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES ($ES)

CURRENT LEVELS:
Price: 6,665.25
Change: +38.75 (+0.58%)

KEY SUPPORT LEVELS:
• 6,638-6,642: Critical near-term support (Friday low reclaim)
• 6,622: Secondary support
• 6,605: Major support zone
• 6,542: Last week's pivot low

KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS:
• 6,667: Immediate resistance
• 6,674: Next target
• 6,685: Key breakout level
• 6,701: Extension target
• 6,750: H4 Long Breakout

TECHNICAL SETUP (Per Adam Mancini):
"After selling all week, longs triggered Friday off the 6542 level,
starting a Thanksgiving leg up. Plan: 6638-42 = support.
6667, 6674, 6685, 6701 targets. 38-42 fails, dip 6622, 6605."

MOVING AVERAGES:
• Stock below 50-day and 200-day MAs = sell signals
• However: Pivot bottom formed November 20
• Volume decreased Friday despite rising prices (divergence warning)

STRATEGY:
• Bulls: Look for hold above 6,640, target 6,700+
• Bears: Break below 6,638 opens door to 6,605
• Most Likely: Consolidation ahead of Thanksgiving

VOLATILITY:
VIX: 23.43 (-11.32%) - Fear subsiding but still elevated

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IMPACT

MAJOR HEALTHCARE POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT:

Trump Health Plan - ACA Subsidy Extension:
• 2-year extension of ACA premium subsidies
• Income caps included for tax credits
• Funded cost-sharing reductions
• Removes "subsidy cliff" uncertainty

MARKET IMPACT:
✅ Huge win for healthcare insurers (OSCR, MOH, CNC)
✅ Stability for individual market insurance
✅ Reduces policy uncertainty heading into 2026

UKRAINE PEACE TALKS UPDATE:
President Trump: "Something good may be happening" on Ukraine
• Secretary Rubio reports "tremendous progress"
• European leaders cautiously optimistic
• Germany's Merz: Don't expect breakthrough this week
• Market Impact: Modest positive for defense stocks, risk-on sentiment

US-CHINA TRADE:
Commerce Secretary Lutnick: "Talks with China will work their way through"
• China started buying US soybeans almost immediately
• Soybean deal to be inked "this week or next"
• Nvidia chip export decisions on Trump's desk
• Digital rules framework friction with EU

TARIFF POLICY:
• Swiss imports may see tariff cut to 15% in December
• Full tariff impact "not yet calculated" per Trump
• Markets focused more on Fed policy than tariff risk currently

US-EU RELATIONS:
• Lutnick wants EU to "take foot off digital rules framework"
• Steel and aluminum tariffs being negotiated
• "Everything is on the table" per Commerce Secretary

OPTIONS FLOW HIGHLIGHTS

NOTABLE UNUSUAL ACTIVITY:

MOTOROLA ($MSI):
• Largest dark pool print in over a year on Friday
• Confirmed by Cheddar Flow
• Institutional accumulation signal
• Stock to watch for Monday

NVIDIA ($NVDA):
• Heavy $200 call options activity post-earnings
• Implied volatility above 50%
• Volume 200% of average (6.4M contracts)
• Market pricing continued large moves

GENERAL OPTIONS SENTIMENT:
• Mixed sentiment across major indices
• Put/call ratios showing cautious optimism
• VIX compression suggests some fear abating

ANALYST RATING CHANGES

UPGRADES ⬆️:

$AMZN - Amazon.com
• BNP Paribas Exane initiates at OUTPERFORM
• Price Target: $320 (from N/A)
• Named as TOP PICK
• Thesis: Cloud and e-commerce leadership, AI infrastructure expansion

$CVNA - Carvana
• Wedbush upgrades to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL
• Price Target: $400 (from $380)
• Current Price: $309.88 (+3.2%)

$BKNG - Booking Holdings
• Bank of America upgrades to BUY from NEUTRAL
• Improved sentiment on travel sector

$CIFR - Cipher Mining
• JPMorgan upgrades to OVERWEIGHT
• Recent selloff creates opportunity

$MP - MP Materials
• BMO Capital upgrades to OUTPERFORM from MARKET PERFORM
• Rare earth materials demand growing

$SNDX - Syndax Pharmaceuticals
• Barclays raises PT to $35 from $22
• Stock up 28.9% over past month

$MRK - Merck & Co.
• Wells Fargo upgrades to OVERWEIGHT from EQUALWEIGHT
• Price Target: $125 (from $90)

DOWNGRADES ⬇️:

$QS - QuantumScape
• Evercore ISI downgrades to IN LINE from OUTPERFORM
• Battery technology concerns

INITIATIONS:

$META - Meta Platforms
• BNP Paribas Exane initiates at OUTPERFORM
• Price Target: $800
• AI and monetization strategy praised
COMMODITIES & MACRO

GOLD: $4,080/oz (+0.36%)
• Bank of America: "Likely to hit $5,000/oz in 2026"
• Safe haven bid remains strong
• Alternative to Bitcoin for inflation protection

OIL - MAJOR WARNING:
JPMorgan: "Brent oil may fall into $30s in 2027 on surplus"
• Current Brent: ~$72/barrel
• Massive oversupply concerns
• AVOID energy sector
• Lowest Thanksgiving-week price since 2020

NATURAL GAS:
• European nat gas: Lowest since May 2024
• Supply concerns easing

US DOLLAR:
• Modest strength continuing
• Rate cut expectations providing some pressure

10-YEAR TREASURY: 4.06%
• Lowest since October Fed meeting
• Dovish Waller comments pushing yields lower
• Bullish for equities

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

EUROPE:
• French government faces budget tensions
• PM Lecornu working with parliament on deficit targets
• German economy showing resilience
• Deutsche Bank optimistic on German rebound in 2026

CHINA:
• Government debt as % of GDP: 96% (up from 23% in 2000)
• Commerce Minister met with US Ambassador
• Soybean purchases from US resuming
• Stimulus measures supporting growth

JAPAN:
• Potential tax overhaul could catalyze crypto adoption
• Yen stable against dollar

INDIA:
• Continued growth trajectory expected
• Deutsche Bank forecasts India to continue rise through 2026

RISK FACTORS & WATCHLIST

KEY RISKS FOR THIS WEEK:

1. HOLIDAY VOLUME ��
   - Wednesday early close (1:00 PM ET)
   - Thursday closed
   - Friday light volume
   - Risk: Low liquidity can amplify moves

2. YEAR-END POSITIONING
   - Tax-loss harvesting may create volatility
   - Portfolio rebalancing ahead of 2026
   - Some profit-taking likely

3. GEOPOLITICAL
   - Ukraine peace talk developments
   - US-China trade negotiations
   - Middle East tensions

4. CRYPTOCURRENCY VOLATILITY
   - Bitcoin still down 30% from peak
   - Further institutional selling possible
   - Regulatory uncertainty

5. PHARMACEUTICAL SECTOR
   - Novo Nordisk failure creates uncertainty
   - Watch for sympathy plays

STOCKS TO WATCH:

BULLISH WATCH:
• OSCR - Healthcare policy winner
• GOOGL - Tech momentum
• AMZN - Analyst upgrade + conference
• IONQ - Quantum computing + AI integration news
• BIDU - AI app downloads surging

BEARISH WATCH:
• NVO - Alzheimer's trial failure
• LLY - Sympathy pressure
• Energy stocks - JPM oil warning

SYMPATHY PLAYS:
After Novo Nordisk failure, watch:
• Biogen - Could benefit from reduced competition
• Other Alzheimer's-focused biotechs

OVERALL TRADING STRATEGY

MONDAY GAME PLAN:

MORNING (9:30 AM - 11:00 AM ET):
✅ Watch opening prints on OSCR, GOOGL, AMZN
✅ Monitor S&P futures at 6,640 support level
✅ Track sector rotation - healthcare leading?
✅ Bitcoin reaction to Fed news

MIDDAY (11:00 AM - 2:00 PM ET):
✅ Economic data: Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed Manufacturing
✅ 2-Year Note Auction results
✅ Look for continuation or reversal patterns

POWER HOUR (3:00 PM - 4:00 PM ET):
✅ Position sizing ahead of low-volume Thanksgiving week
✅ Consider reducing exposure into holiday
✅ Set profit targets and stop losses

RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SHORT WEEK:

• Reduce position sizes by 30-50%
• Take profits earlier than normal
• Widen stop losses slightly for holiday gaps
• Avoid holding risky positions through Thanksgiving
• Focus on highest-conviction setups only

BEST SETUPS:
1. OSCR long - Healthcare policy catalyst
2. GOOGL momentum - Breakout above $300
3. AMZN accumulation - Ahead of Reinvent
4. NVDA bounce - Oversold quality name

AVOID:
• NVO and LLY (pharmaceutical uncertainty)
• Energy stocks (oil collapse warning)
• Low-volume, low-liquidity names
• Heavily leveraged positions into holiday

POSITION MANAGEMENT:
• Book profits on 50% of winners before Wednesday
• Trail stops on remaining positions
• Cash is a position - don't force trades

WALL STREET ANALYST OUTLOOK

MAJOR BANK TARGETS FOR 2026:

DEUTSCHE BANK - MOST BULLISH:
• S&P 500 Target: 8,000 (by end-2026)
• Basis: AI investment driving productivity gains
• US GDP Growth: 2.4%
• S&P 500 Earnings: $320
• Inflation easing, 2 Fed rate cuts expected
• Current S&P: 6,614 → +21% upside

MORGAN STANLEY - BUY THE DIP:
• Michael Wilson: "Tactical correction, not fundamental deterioration"
• Damage "under the surface" suggests correction nearing end
• Expects Fed rate cuts + 17% EPS growth in 2026
• Overweight: Small Caps, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Industrials, Financials

GOLDMAN SACHS:
• Remain modestly pro-risk
• "Goldilocks meets some bears"
• Diversification and selective hedges recommended
• US equities expensive even excluding large-cap tech
• Market shifted toward 'central bank put' regime

BANK OF AMERICA:
• Investment breakeven pace of employment: ~20K jobs/month
• Tighter immigration policies reduce labor market pressure
• Higher income spending outpacing lower income
• Equities and real estate driving household wealth gains

JPMORGAN:
• Brent oil may fall to $30s in 2027 (bearish energy)
• Cautious on crude oversupply

CONSENSUS VIEW:
→ Bullish on equities into 2026
→ Fed rate cuts supportive
→ AI/Tech leadership continues
→ Volatility expected but buyable
→ Small-caps attractive on rate cuts

FULL WEEK AHEAD (NOV 24-29)

MONDAY (TODAY):
• Fed's Waller rate cut comments
• Healthcare sector focus (OSCR news)
• Tech momentum (GOOGL, AMZN)
• Economic data: Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed
• Normal trading hours

TUESDAY:
• Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM)
• Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM)
• Key earnings: A (Agilent)
• Normal trading hours
• Higher volume expected

WEDNESDAY:
• Pre-Thanksgiving trading
• EARLY CLOSE at 1:00 PM ET
• Light economic calendar
• Volume drops significantly
• Risk-off positioning

THURSDAY:
• �� MARKETS CLOSED - Thanksgiving
• No trading

FRIDAY:
• Shortened session
• Very light volume
• Black Friday shopping data
• Year-end positioning begins

WEEK STRATEGY:
1. Focus Monday-Tuesday for active trading
2. Reduce exposure by Wednesday AM
3. Book profits before holiday
4. Prepare for December volatility
5. Year-end positioning starting

KEY LEVELS TO WATCH

S&P 500 FUTURES ($ES):
• Resistance: 6,667 | 6,674 | 6,685 | 6,701 | 6,750
• Support: 6,638 | 6,622 | 6,605 | 6,542

NASDAQ 100 ($QQQ):
• Watch tech sector leadership
• Google strength driving upside

GOOGLE ($GOOGL):
• Key: $300 psychological level
• Resistance: $306.65 (ATH)
• Support: $290

AMAZON ($AMZN):
• Resistance: $230 | $245 | $265
• Support: $218 | $210

NVIDIA ($NVDA):
• Resistance: $190 | $200 | $212
• Support: $176 | $170

BITCOIN:
• Resistance: $92K | $95K
• Support: $85K | $82K

GOLD:
• Current: $4,080
• Target: $5,000 (BofA)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

BULL CASE:
✅ Fed Governor Waller backs December rate cut
✅ Deutsche Bank most bullish: S&P 8,000 target for 2026
✅ Tech sector showing renewed leadership (Google +65% YTD)
✅ Healthcare surging on ACA subsidy extension
✅ Morgan Stanley: "Buy the dip" - correction ending
✅ Small-cap rotation beginning (Russell +2.80%)
✅ VIX dropping (-11.32%) - fear subsiding
✅ Q4 seasonality historically strong

BEAR CASE:
⚠️ Holiday week low volume creates risk
⚠️ Bitcoin down 30% - institutional capitulation
⚠️ Novo Nordisk failure creates pharma uncertainty
⚠️ Year-end tax-loss selling possible
⚠️ Oil collapse warning from JPMorgan
⚠️ Market extended on some metrics

THE VERDICT:
�� CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
• Fed pivot extremely bullish for risk assets
• Focus on highest-conviction setups only
• Reduce position sizes for holiday week
• Healthcare and Tech leading
• Small-caps attractive on rate cut hopes
• Take profits early, trail stops wide

TOP PRIORITIES MONDAY:
1. Trade OSCR healthcare policy catalyst
2. Monitor GOOGL $300 breakout
3. Accumulate AMZN ahead of December
4. Watch S&P futures 6,640 support
5. Reduce exposure ahead of Thanksgiving

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The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute financial advice,
investment advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and you should not
treat any of the newsletter's content as such.

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is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and due
diligence before making any investment decisions.

All price data has been verified from multiple sources including Yahoo Finance,
Investing.com, and official stock exchange data as of the close on November 21, 2025,
and pre-market activity on November 24, 2025.

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