🔥 Fed Holds Rates, Crypto Surges, Geopolitics on Edge: Your Friday June 20th Trade Blueprint Is Here 🔥

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MARKET RECAP (JUNE 18TH, 2025)

• Stocks opened firm on Fed anticipation, saw strong breadth & VIX fade.

• Oil & precious metals lagged; Biotech, Banks, and Transports led gains.

• Fed held rates unchanged at 4.5%, lowered 2025 GDP to 1.4%, raised inflation to 3%.

• Market sold into Powell’s presser despite initial spike.

• $SPX closed under 6000 key level, ES chopping in tight 6033-6050 range.

Resistance: 6041 (major), 6050 (magnet), 6067, 6082, 6099 (macro breakout level)
Support: 6033, 6022 (key trigger zone), 6000 (psychological), 5978-82 (range base)

NEWS & CATALYSTS

• Fed: No rate cuts. September 2025 cut now priced in at 71%. Dovish tilt in forecast (still elevated uncertainty).

• Middle East: Iran-Israel conflict escalates; oil surges on Brent $85 risk.

• Crypto: GENIUS stablecoin bill passed Senate. Boost to $COIN, $CRCL, $SOFI.

• White House: Positive tone around stablecoin adoption. Flag ceremony initiated.

Key News & Sentiment

Fed & Macro:

• Powell maintains “modestly restrictive” stance, inflation remains elevated, rate cuts expected only later.

• Tariff inflation lingers → Neutral‑bearish on risk assets short term.

• Powell’s communications strategy update in Fall → Neutral effect.

Geopolitics:

• Trump meetings on Iran-Israel; shifting tone from escalation → Mixed bias.

• Israel attacks Iranian missile sites → Bullish for oil/energy, cautious for equities.

Crypto News:

• Coinbase allowing USDC collateral and Ohio tax exemption → Strong bullish crypto setup.

Stocks & Tech:

• Microsoft may walk away from OpenAI deal → Bearish MSFT, cautious AI names.

• Boeing needs LEAP engine fixes → Bearish aircraft OEMs.

• Stablecoin legislation boosts Circle ($CRCL), Coinbase ($COIN).

• Visa/Mastercard rotate lower → Bearish traditional payments.

• GSK spinoff, Global Payments fintech push → Bullish selective financials.

BULLISH SECTORS

• Biotech

• Transports

• Crypto/Financial (Stablecoin exposure)

• Semiconductors (AI momentum names)

BEARISH SECTORS

• Energy (short term profit-taking)

• Solar ($ENPH, $RUN weakness on subsidy fears)

⏰ Overnight Recommendation for ES

⚠️ BUY Level: ~6026 (Failed Breakdown Bounce)
📈 SELL Level: 6059–6067 (Tiered exits)
📌 Key Inflection: 6050 – magnet & trend trigger
🎯 Strategy:

• Enter on confirmed failed breakdown or reclaim

• Trail stop beneath recent lower swing

• Lock in 1/3 at 6059, next at 6067, hold rest for 6082

High Conviction Forecast:

• Friday opens weak but bases at 6026, traps bears, reclaims 6041/6050.

• Strong bounce toward 6082/6099 with any supportive macro headlines.

• Expect rotational outperformance in financials, crypto, and select tech names.

NEXT DAY CATALYSTS (JUNE 20, 2025)

• 8:30 AM ET: Philly Fed Manufacturing

• 10:00 AM ET: CB Leading Index

• Overseas: BoJ Gov Ueda Speech / China Loan Prime Rate

• Earnings: $ACN, $DRI, $KMX (watch sympathy in consulting, retail auto)

• After–Market Earnings: ACN, DRI, KMX

• Overnight: Iran nuclear talks, China LPR decisions

Macroe involved—prepare for volatility.

CRYPTO UPDATE:

• $COIN, $CRCL, $SOFI remain dominant as Wall Street embraces regulated stablecoin rails.

• $BTC hovering above $68k remains bullish above $66.5k support.

FINAL TAKEAWAYS:

• Choppy session expected early, upside resolution >6050 triggers bullish rally.

• Friday leans bullish if global risk headlines stabilize.

• Maintain long runners from failed breakdowns.

• Avoid fade shorting until 6099 is touched and rejected.

⏳ Overnight Copy‑Paste Trade Instructions

📈 Market Strategy Summary

• Overall Sentiment: Mixed – cautious bulls retaining upside while geopolitics/tech worries persist.

• Friday Bias: Lean bullish; focus on failed‑breakdown longs in ES around 6022→6050 with breakout potential.

• Strategy: Capitalize on high-conviction trades, long bias in crypto, small cap, fintech. Short defensive plays (MSFT, BA, V).

• Risk Management: 1–2% capital per trade, track volatility; trail stops.

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