📈 Fed Cut Imminent: AI Mega-Caps Lead September Surge While Small Biotech Breakouts Emerge

🔑 Key Things to Know for Today's Afternoon Session

• Fed Cut Nearly Certain: Markets are pricing in an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting, with only a 12% chance of a more aggressive 50bp cut

• AI Infrastructure Boom Accelerates: Global semiconductor sales are expected to reach $701 billion by the end of 2025, marking 11.2% growth, with data center buildouts driving unprecedented demand

• TSLA Breakout Confirmed: Musk's $1 billion share purchase has triggered massive institutional FOMO with the stock surging 7.4% to $396, with dark pool accumulation hitting $8.3B

• Record Market Highs Within Reach: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,584, its best week since early August with a 1.6% gain, while the Nasdaq notched five straight record highs

🌍 Macro & Market Pulse

• 📊 SPY drifting but under steady flow; breadth neutral.

• 📈 VIX Futures turning green → red flag into OPEX week.

• 💵 Gold $3,680 ATH ⚡ | Silver strong; IV30 rising in GLD/SLV as call buyers stack.

• 🪙 BTC $115K coiling; ETH heavy near $4.2K support. BlackRock confirmed +$88M BTC buy.

📰 What’s Moving Now

• NVDA: 🔥 26,000 Oct 31st $190 calls bought → momentum run-up.

• AMZN: Bullish risk reversal; sold Sep 2026 $250 ITM puts, bought $260 calls.

• META: 1,600 Nov $760C swept → back near ATHs.

• BTU (Peabody): 20,000 Jan $22C bullish sweep; energy/materials squeeze play.

• CCJ (Cameco): 1,500 Jan 2027 $105C bought → uranium bid still alive.

• TRIP: Flying on bull flows.

• ADBE: Large long-dated put buying (Sep 2026 $280–290P); post-ER sluggishness = bearish setup.

• TER (Teradyne): Heavy Dec 2027 $110C open; structural AI tester demand; dip buy near $110.

• Richtech Robotics (RR): Surging; 8,000+ March call buys over $1.70.

📊 Sector Heat

✅ Leaders: Metals (GLD, SLV, GDX, CDE, SA), Energy Coal/Uranium (BTU, CCJ), Tech (NVDA, META, TRIP), Robotics (TER, RR).
❌ Laggards: Software (ADBE weak), Consumer (ETSY heavy insider selling), some semis (MU double-top risk).

🎯 High-Conviction Trade Setups (Swing Focus)

1) GLD / SLV — Metals Momentum 🚀

• Catalyst: Gold breaks ATH $3,680; IV30 up, calls active (GLD Sep 30 $336C 8.5K bought).

• Buy Level: GLD $336–338; SLV $42.80–43.20.

• Targets: GLD $350 (+4%), SLV $45 (+5%).

• Stop: GLD $329; SLV $41.

• Options: GLD 9/30 $340C; SLV Jan $45C.

2) NVDA — AI Flow Monster ⚡

• Catalyst: 26K Oct $190 calls swept; AI leadership intact.

• Buy Level: $182–185 dips.

• Targets: $200 (+8%), $215 (+15%).

• Stop: $176.

• Options: NVDA 10/31 $190C.

3) BTU (Peabody Energy) — Breakout in Motion 🔥

• Catalyst: 20K Jan $22 calls bought; energy/materials squeeze + coal bid.

• Buy Level: $21–22 dips.

• Targets: $25 (+13%), $28 (+27%).

• Stop: $19.80.

• Options: BTU Jan $22C @ $1.34.

4) TER (Teradyne) — AI Tester Infrastructure 🖥️

• Catalyst: Long-dated $110C accumulation; AI tester demand accelerating into 2026.

• Buy Level: $109–111 dip zone.

• Targets: $125 (+12%), $140 (+25%).

• Stop: $103.

• Options: TER Feb $125C.

5) RR (Richtech Robotics) — Speculative AI Robotics Play 🤖

• Catalyst: Unusual March $4–5C sweeps; stock ripping on robotics narrative.

• Buy Level: $3.60–3.80.

• Targets: $5 (+30%), $6.20 (+65%).

• Stop: $3.20.

• Options: RR Mar $5C.

🪙 Crypto Command Center

• BTC $115K: Whale buys ($88M) on Coinbase; coil suggests breakout >$116K.

• ETH $4.27K: ETF outflows continue; key floor $4.2K.

• XRP ETF filing → crypto sentiment improving.

• IBIT: Heavy Dec $75C activity = institutional accumulation.

🔄 MONEY ROTATION ALERT

Our AI analysis confirms massive capital flows:

INTO: AI infrastructure plays, semiconductor equipment makers, cloud computing giants, autonomous vehicle ecosystem

OUT OF: Consumer staples, utilities, traditional pharma, small-cap speculative biotech

🔮 DCG Gameplan Into Afternoon & Tomorrow

• Bullish Bias: Metals (GLD, SLV, CDE, SA), NVDA/META momentum, Robotics (TER, RR), BTU/CCJ.

• Bearish Bias: ADBE (long-dated puts signal weakness), MU (double-top risk).

• Watch: CPI/Fed chatter, VIX bid into OPEX, Trump tariff/defense headlines.

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⚡ Summary: Metals and AI remain the twin engines today — gold surging to ATH, NVDA call flows explosive. Energy names BTU & CCJ gaining institutional momentum. Use pullbacks to build positions; respect stops with VIX ticking green.

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