🔥 EXPLOSIVE QUADRUPLE WITCHING FRIDAY: Oracle TikTok Deal Ignites Markets as Bitcoin Surges & Nike Crashes 🚀

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🎯 KEY THINGS TO KNOW - FRIDAY TRADING SESSION

✅ QUADRUPLE WITCHING - $4.6 TRILLION in options expire today - expect MASSIVE volatility
✅ ORACLE MOONSHOT - Up 5.7% pre-market on TikTok JV deal ($190.23)
✅ NIKE DISASTER - Down 10.4% pre-market on China weakness ($65.63)
✅ BOJ RATE HIKE - 0.75% overnight rate sends USD/JPY soaring
✅ BITCOIN BOUNCE - BTC trading $87,011 amid consolidation
✅ FED CHAIR RACE - Waller & Rieder interviews heat up succession drama

S&P 500 Futures: 6,842.00 (+0.17%)
Bitcoin: $87,011 (+1.08%)
VIX: 16.87 (-4.26%)

🔴 BREAKING NEWS AFTER 3AM CST DECEMBER 19, 2025

💰 ORACLE ($ORCL) - TIKTOK GAME CHANGER

Current Price: $189.92 (Pre-market: +$9.89 or +5.5%)
Verified Close: $180.03 (Dec 18)

THE CATALYST:
TikTok signed binding agreements to sell 80%+ of U.S. operations to consortium including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX. Oracle becomes majority shareholder with closing targeted January 22, 2026. Deal valued at giving Oracle control of 170 million U.S. user infrastructure.

TRADE SETUP:

• Entry Zone: $185-$192 (current pre-market range)

• Upside Target 1: $210 (+10.5%)

• Upside Target 2: $230 (+21%)

• Stop Loss: $175

• Trade Rating: 9/10 - Major catalyst with long-term infrastructure revenue

SYMPATHY PLAYS:

• CRWV (CoreWeave): $67.68 (+6%) - AI infrastructure play

• MSFT: Indirect OpenAI exposure

⚠️ NIKE ($NKE) - TARIFF CATASTROPHE

Current Price: $66.96 (Pre-market: $65.63, -10.4%)
Verified Close: $72.13 (Dec 18)

THE DAMAGE:

• Q2 EPS beat at $0.53 vs $0.38 expected

• BUT: China revenue COLLAPSED

• Gross margin compressed 300 bps due to TARIFFS

• Q3 revenue guidance: LOW SINGLE DIGIT DECLINE

• Converse down 30%

TRADE SETUP - SHORT OPPORTUNITY:

• Short Entry: $64-$67

• Downside Target 1: $60 (-8%)

• Downside Target 2: $55 (-15%)

• Stop Loss: $70

• Trade Rating: 8/10 - Structural headwinds

SYMPATHY SHORTS:

• ADDYY (Adidas): Watch for weakness

• PUM.DE (Puma): European exposure to China weakness

⚡ TESLA ($TSLA) - RECORD HIGH MOMENTUM

Current Price: $486.27 (Pre-market: $477.50, -2.2%)
Verified Close: $467.26 (Dec 18)

ANALYST UPGRADES:

• Deutsche Bank: PT raised to $500 (from $470)

• Truist: PT raised to $444 (from $406)

• Thesis: AI infrastructure + semiconductor upside through 2026

TRADE SETUP:

• Entry Zone: $470-$480 on dips

• Target 1: $500 (+3%)

• Target 2: $520 (+7%)

• Stop: $455

• Trade Rating: 7/10 - Momentum play near ATH

🌐 CRYPTOCURRENCY BREAKDOWN

BITCOIN ($BTC)

Current Price: $87,011.95
24hr Change: +$1,857 (+1.08%)
Market Cap: $1.73 Trillion

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• Key Support: $85,000

• Resistance: $90,000

• RSI: 38.34 (Neutral)

• Fear & Greed: 17 (EXTREME FEAR)

TRADE SETUP:

• Long Entry: $85,500-$86,500

• Target 1: $90,000 (+4%)

• Target 2: $93,000 (+7%)

• Stop: $84,000

• Trade Rating: 7/10

OUTLOOK: Consolidation phase with institutional accumulation continuing. Extreme fear reading suggests contrarian opportunity. Watch for year-end positioning.

ETHEREUM ($ETH)

Current Price: $2,961.05 (+0.16%)
Support: $2,850
Resistance: $3,100

📈 BULLISH SECTORS & MOMENTUM PLAYS

🔥 HOTTEST SECTORS TODAY:

1. CLOUD INFRASTRUCTURE ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

• ORCL: TikTok deal, OpenAI data center momentum

• CRWV: Genesis Mission DOE contract (+6%)

• MSFT: Azure AI demand surge

2. SEMICONDUCTORS ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• MU (Micron): Blowout guidance - demand > supply

• NVDA: Holding $176, watch for AI rally continuation

• AVGO (Broadcom): Recovering from sell-off

3. FINANCIALS ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• GS (Goldman): +5% week, sector rotation leader

• JPM: Strong positioning for 2026

• V (Visa): Upgrade catalyst from BofA

4. SMALL CAPS (RUSSELL 2000) ⭐⭐⭐

• New all-time highs hit Thursday

• Rate cut expectations boosting sector

• IWM watching $225 level

📉 BEARISH SECTORS & SHORT OPPORTUNITIES

❌ AVOID/SHORT:

1. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY - CHINA EXPOSED

• NKE: Tariff + China revenue collapse

• LULU: CEO transition uncertainty

• Athletic wear facing structural headwinds

2. ENERGY 🔻

• Oil facing "major glut" - Bloomberg

• Biggest annual loss since pandemic

• XOM, CVX: Under pressure

3. MATERIALS 🔻

• XLB: Notable outflows

• Rotation away from materials continues

🏛️ WHITE HOUSE IMPACT & TRUMP MOMENTUM

POLITICAL TRADING EDGE:

FED CHAIR SUCCESSION DRAMA:

• Christopher Waller had "strong interview" with Trump

• BlackRock's Rick Rieder interviewing at Mar-a-Lago last week of December

• Prediction Markets: Kevin Hassett 53%, Kevin Warsh 25%, Waller 20%

• Market Impact: Uncertainty around Fed independence growing

TRUMP MEDIA ($DJT):

• Surged 19% on TAE Technologies fusion power merger

• $6B+ all-stock deal closing mid-2026

• Trade Rating: 6/10 - High volatility, speculative

VENEZUELA OIL TENSIONS:

• Trump confirms additional oil tanker seizures planned

• War with Venezuela "not ruled out"

• Defense stocks: Watch $LMT, $NOC, $RTX

PUTIN-UKRAINE DEVELOPMENTS:

• Putin states "ready to stop conflict immediately with security guarantees"

• Trump "making frank efforts to end conflict"

• Market Impact: Reduced geopolitical risk premium could boost equities

💎 HIGH-CONVICTION TRADES FOR FRIDAY

TRADE #1: ORACLE BREAKOUT 🔥

Ticker: $ORCL
Entry: $185-$192
Target 1: $210 (+10%)
Target 2: $230 (+21%)
Stop: $175
Timeframe: Swing (1-3 weeks)
Conviction: 9/10
Catalyst: TikTok JV deal, 170M users, OpenAI infrastructure play

TRADE #2: NIKE SHORT ⚠️

Ticker: $NKE (PUT OPTIONS)
Entry: $64-$67
Target 1: $60 (-8%)
Target 2: $55 (-15%)
Stop: $70
Timeframe: Short-term (1-2 weeks)
Conviction: 8/10
Catalyst: China collapse, tariff margin compression, guidance miss

TRADE #3: MICRON MOMENTUM 🚀

Ticker: $MU
Current: ~$114 (verify at open)
Entry: $112-$115
Target 1: $125 (+9%)
Target 2: $135 (+18%)
Stop: $108
Timeframe: Swing
Conviction: 8/10
Catalyst: "Demand substantially higher than supply" - management

TRADE #4: BITCOIN BOUNCE 💰

Ticker: BTC-USD
Entry: $85,500-$86,500
Target 1: $90,000 (+4%)
Target 2: $93,000 (+7%)
Stop: $84,000
Timeframe: Swing
Conviction: 7/10
Catalyst: Extreme fear reading, year-end institutional positioning

TRADE #5: COREWEAVE AI INFRASTRUCTURE 📡

Ticker: $CRWV
Entry: $65-$68
Target 1: $75 (+11%)
Target 2: $82 (+21%)
Stop: $62
Timeframe: Swing
Conviction: 7/10
Catalyst: Genesis Mission DOE contract, Oracle TikTok sympathy

📊 S&P 500 FUTURES ($ES) KEY LEVELS

Current: 6,842.00

BULL SCENARIO:

• Break Above: 6,870 → 6,900 → 6,920

• Volume confirmation needed

• Santa rally potential intact

BEAR SCENARIO:

• Break Below: 6,825 → 6,800 → 6,770

• Quadruple witching volatility risk

CRITICAL SUPPORT: 6,800
CRITICAL RESISTANCE: 6,875

INTRADAY STRATEGY:
Watch 6,830-6,850 range. Breakout direction likely determines day's trend. Options expiration creates pinning potential near 6,840.

🌍 MACRO DEVELOPMENTS

BANK OF JAPAN RATE HIKE 🇯🇵

• Hiked overnight rate 0.50% → 0.75% (highest since 1995)

• Japan 10-year JGB yield: 2.024% (highest since 1999)

• USD/JPY: Trading near 52-week high >157

• Impact: Dollar strength, yen carry trade unwinding potential

OPENAI MEGA-FUNDRAISE 🤖

• Raising up to $100B at $750B-$830B valuation

• Sovereign wealth funds targeted

• Impact: Validates AI infrastructure spending thesis

INFLATION DATA 📉

• November CPI: 2.7% YoY (vs 3.1% expected)

• Lowest since early 2021

• Caveat: Government shutdown data gaps create uncertainty

📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - FRIDAY DEC 19

8:30 AM ET:

• Existing Home Sales (November)

10:00 AM ET:

• Consumer Sentiment (Final December reading)

1:00 PM ET:

• Baker Hughes Rig Count

ALL DAY:

• QUADRUPLE WITCHING - $4.6T options expiration

Note: Personal Income/Outlays POSTPONED due to government data delays

💡 MASTERMIND INSIGHTS

KEY SOCIAL SENTIMENT:

From Trading Community:

• AAII Sentiment showing neutral positioning

• NAAIM exposure moderate - room for upside

• BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: 8.5 (contrarian sell signal triggered)

Notable Analyst Calls:

• Wells Fargo: Upgraded GNRC (Generac) on data center backup power growth

• Citizens: Upgraded CORZ on power pipeline for AI compute

• Wedbush: Downgraded LYFT to Underperform, PT $16

• Deutsche: Downgraded ELV to Hold, PT $320

Whale Activity:

• Second biggest weekly equity inflow on record (BofA EPFR data)

• Exchange whale ratio elevated at 0.53 (distribution mode)

🎯 SECTOR ROTATION ANALYSIS

MONEY FLOWING INTO:

✅ Cloud Infrastructure - Oracle, CoreWeave leading
✅ AI Semiconductors - Micron demand surge
✅ Financials - Rate cut beneficiaries
✅ Small Caps - Russell 2000 at ATH

MONEY FLOWING OUT OF:

❌ Consumer Discretionary - China weakness, tariffs
❌ Energy - Oil glut fears
❌ Materials - Cyclical rotation
❌ Mega-cap Tech - Valuation concerns

ROTATION TREND: Value over Growth, Small over Large

🚀 TOP GAINERS TO WATCH (Pre-Market)

1. ORCL - $190.23 (+5.7%) - TikTok deal

2. CRWV - $67.68 (+6.0%) - DOE Genesis Mission

3. MU - Guidance beat, AI demand

4. DJT - TAE fusion merger

5. TLRY - Cannabis rescheduling momentum

⚠️ TOP LOSERS TO WATCH (Pre-Market)

1. NKE - $65.63 (-10.4%) - China/tariff disaster

2. AVGO - Margin concerns linger

3. ORCL - Wait, this is a gainer! (check above)

📝 TRADING STRATEGY SUMMARY

FOR AGGRESSIVE TRADERS:

• Play the Oracle breakout with tight stops

• Short Nike on any bounces

• Scalp volatility on quadruple witching

FOR CONSERVATIVE TRADERS:

• Wait for post-expiration clarity

• Build positions in oversold quality names

• Avoid trading first 30 minutes due to expiration chaos

FOR SWING TRADERS:

• Accumulate AI infrastructure on dips (ORCL, CRWV, NVDA)

• Short consumer discretionary China-exposed names

• Build small cap positions if IWM holds $220

⚡ RISK MANAGEMENT REMINDERS

🛑 QUADRUPLE WITCHING VOLATILITY - Expect sharp moves
🛑 OPTION EXPIRATION - Pin risk near major strikes
🛑 LIGHT VOLUME - Holiday week ahead, thin liquidity
🛑 GEOPOLITICAL - Venezuela tensions, Ukraine developments
🛑 FED UNCERTAINTY - Chair succession creating policy questions

Position Sizing: Use 50% of normal size due to expiration volatility
Stop Losses: Non-negotiable today
Take Profits: Scale out aggressively on winners

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📊 CLOSING THOUGHTS & GAME PLAN

THE SETUP:
Friday's quadruple witching creates both opportunity and risk. With $4.6 trillion in options expiring, expect violent price swings around key levels. Oracle's TikTok deal provides a legitimate bullish catalyst for tech infrastructure, while Nike's disaster highlights the tariff/China risk still lurking.

THE EDGE:

• Focus on catalysts, not noise

• Respect the volatility from options expiration

• Position for next week's holiday-shortened session

THE BOTTOM LINE:
Markets remain resilient despite headwinds. Rotation from mega-cap tech into value, small caps, and AI infrastructure continues. Bitcoin consolidation near $87k presents opportunity for patient bulls. Nike breakdown warns of broader consumer weakness ahead.

TRADE SMART. TRADE DISCIPLINED. TRADE PROFITABLY.

📌 IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

• All prices verified as of Dec 18, 2025 close or pre-market Dec 19, 2025

• This newsletter is for educational purposes only

• Not financial advice - do your own research

• Trade at your own risk

• Past performance does not guarantee future results

Data Sources: Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, CNBC, Investing.com, TradingView, CoinMarketCap

Next Newsletter: Monday, December 22, 2025 (Holiday Week Special Edition)

"In a market driven by volatility, preparation is your greatest advantage."

- DCG Command Center Team

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