DCG Weekly A.I. Trading Plan: March 9-14, 2025 - A Winning Week Awaits Traders Inside The Mastermind - GET READY FOR ANOTHER CRAZY WEEK IN THE STOCK MARKET

Capitalize on CPI Catalysts and OPEX Strength for Big Gains - CPI Week & Getting Ready For Triple Witching Prep: Navigating the 200-Day Bounce with PrecisionMarket Tests Critical Support Amid Extreme Fear — Masterful Traders Will Capitalize on Pre-OPEX Seasonality, CPI Binary Event & Oracle's AI Moment

DCG Weekly Trading Plan: March 9-14, 2025

Market Overview

March 14th 2025 Total Eclipse Coming

DCG Mastermind AI SCOUT - Previous Week Recap

  • Monday: Trade war fears slammed stocks; Singapore investigated Nvidia chip sanctions; Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate turned negative, sparking recession fears

  • Tuesday: Selloff broadened beyond tech, erasing post-election gains; CrowdStrike and AeroVironment sold off post-earnings

  • Wednesday: Bulls rallied after weak ADP report; delayed car tariffs boosted automakers; Novo Nordisk targeted consumers directly

  • Thursday: Trump paused Canada/Mexico tariffs; Chinese stocks surged on stimulus hopes; private equity sought bargains

  • Friday: Markets jumped on lukewarm jobs report despite Powell's no-rush stance on rate cuts; Crypto Summit disappointed

Current Technical View

  • SPX closed -3% for the week but rallied strongly Friday, holding the critical 200-day MA support at 5710

  • This support zone coincides with AVWAP from April lows and 50% retracement from August low to 2025 high

  • VIX showing contraction (inverted VIX/VXV ratio at 1.03), often signaling a market bottom

  • Triple Witching OPEX approaching (March 21) - historically bullish pre-OPEX

Sentiment Indicators

  • AAII sentiment shows extreme bearishness: 19.3% bullish (among lowest 66 readings ever), 57.1% bearish

  • $14.2B in equity fund outflows last week

  • CNN Fear & Greed Index: 20 (Extreme Fear)

  • NYSE stocks above 50-MA: 47.2%, above 200-MA: 52.4%

  • Market environment: "Risk Off" with fund outflows and defensive sector rotation

Key Weekly Events & Catalysts

Economic Releases (Chronological)

  • Monday (11:00 AM): NY Fed Consumer Expectations

  • Tuesday (10:00 AM): JOLTS Job Openings (Est: 7.5M, Prev: 7.6M)

  • Wednesday (8:30 AM): CPI Inflation Report (Prev MoM: 0.3%, YoY: 2.9%) - MAJOR CATALYST

  • Thursday (8:30 AM): PPI Inflation Data (Prev MoM: 0.3%, YoY: 3.2%)

  • Thursday (8:30 AM): Initial Jobless Claims (Est: 230K, Prev: 221K)

  • Friday (10:00 AM): Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Est: 63.2, Prev: 64.7)

Market Catalysts

  • Tariff Implementation: 25% steel/aluminum tariffs on EU (Wednesday)

  • Trump Meeting: Tech CEOs gathering (HP, Intel, IBM, Qualcomm) - Monday

  • Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Impact on crypto markets

  • Triple Witching OPEX: Approaching next week (historically bullish pre-OPEX)

  • Fed in Blackout Period: No Fed speakers ahead of March 18-19 FOMC meeting

Notable Conferences & Events

  • S&P Global CERAWeek (All week): Energy sector leaders in Houston

  • SXSW Festival (All week): Tech companies showcase (MSFT, AUUD, LLY, IBM, RIVN)

  • HumanX AI Conference (Monday): Focus on AI developments (SNOW, META)

  • Solana ETF Decision Deadline (Tuesday): Potential crypto catalyst

  • Multiple Investor Days: Cloudflare (NET - Wednesday), CHEF, NCMI, NVMI, BECN, NABL (Thursday)

Daily Trading Strategy

Monday, March 10 - Seasonality: Weak (39.7% historically up)

Key Events:

  • 11:00 AM: NY Fed Consumer Expectations

  • All Day: S&P Global CERAWeek begins

  • All Day: Trump meets tech CEOs

  • All Day: SXSW media festival participants

Earnings Focus:

  • After Close: Oracle (ORCL), BioNTech (BNTX), Vail Resorts (MTN), Asana (ASAN)

  • ORCL Analysis: Expected 8% Y/Y revenue growth, 6% profit rise; Stargate AI project catalyst

Trading Approach:

  • Cautious positioning due to weak Monday seasonality

  • Watch 5763 level in ES (major resistance/support zone now "mush" due to repeated tests)

  • Hold existing long positions (if any) from Friday's rally but avoid adding significant exposure

  • Beastmode Plays: ( PREMIUM PLAY FOR MEMBERS)

  • Risk Management: Take profits at first level hit, leave runners for potential trend

Volatility Watch:

  • High IV Movers: GRRR, MSTR

  • High Short Interest: BMEA, LAZR

  • IPO Watch: Redcloud Holdings (RCT) starts trading; Klarna seeking $1B IPO

Tuesday, March 11 - Seasonality: Strong (60.3% historically up)

Key Events:

  • 10:00 AM: JOLTS Job Openings (Est: 7.5M)

  • All Day: Solana ETF approval deadline

  • Investor Days: ETN, GLBE, SLAB, TER

Earnings Focus:

  • Pre-Market: Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Kohl's (KSS), Casey's (CASY), Ciena (CIEN)

  • DKS Analysis: Options imply double-digit swing; Top sell candidate due to expected earnings miss

  • FuelCell (FCEL) Analysis: Revenue expected to double, but EPS down 2%; high dilution risk

Trading Approach:

  • Stronger bullish bias historically - look for continuation if Monday holds gains

  • Long entries preferred on morning dips

  • Monitor JOLTS for labor market clues (strong number supports bull case)

  • Consider DKS short play post-earnings (bearish outlook)

  • (PREMIUM PLAY)

  • Crypto Catalyst: Solana ETF approval could trigger SOL breakout

Wednesday, March 12 - Seasonality: Mixed (49.2% historically up)

Key Events:

  • 8:30 AM: CPI Inflation Report (MAJOR MARKET MOVER)

  • All Day: EU 25% Steel/Aluminum Tariffs take effect

  • Cloudflare (NET) Investor Day

  • Starbucks (SBUX) Annual Meeting

Earnings Focus:

  • After Close: Adobe (ADBE), American Eagle (AEO), UiPath (PATH), iRobot (IRBT), ZIM

  • ADBE Analysis: Expected Y/Y EPS and revenue growth; new Photoshop AI app catalyst

  • AEO Analysis: Deteriorating earnings expectations; top sell candidate

Trading Approach:

  • Neutral pre-CPI, binary post-CPI approach

  • REDUCE EXPOSURE PRE-CPI - key inflection point for markets

  • Post-CPI Bullish Setup: If CPI cooler than expected → Long SPX targeting 5840+ (stop below pre-CPI low)

  • Post-CPI Bearish Setup: If CPI hotter than expected → Short SPX targeting 5650 (stop above pre-CPI high)

  • Watch NET (breakout potential on Investor Day), ADBE (earnings short opportunity)

  • Avoid overnight positions due to PPI Thursday morning

Thursday, March 13 - Seasonality: Strong (60.3% historically up)

Key Events:

  • 8:30 AM: PPI Inflation Data

  • 8:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims (Est: 230K)

  • Multiple Investor Days (CHEF, NCMI, NVMI, BECN, NABL)

Earnings Focus:

  • After Close: Dollar General (DG), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), DocuSign (DOCU), Semtech (SMTC), Weibo (WB)

  • (PREMIUM MEMBERS SUBSCRIBERS)

  • ULTA Analysis: Top sell candidate due to expected earnings miss

Trading Approach:

  • Follow-through on Wednesday's CPI reaction

  • Position for Friday's Michigan Sentiment data

  • Consider volatility plays around DOCU earnings (options imply large move)

  • Watch ULTA for potential short opportunity

  • Beastmode Play:(PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS)

Friday, March 14 - Seasonality: Moderately bullish (55.5% historically up)

Key Events:

  • 10:00 AM: Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March)

  • O-I Glass Investor Day, Pilgrim's Pride Investor Day

Earnings Focus:

  • Pre-Market: Li Auto (LI)

  • LI Analysis: February deliveries up 29.7% Y/Y; strong BEV strategy; potential buy candidate

Trading Approach:

Sector Focus & Trade Ideas

Bullish Sectors

  1. Energy (XLE) & Oil Stocks

    • Catalyst: SPR refill plan & OPEC supply cuts

    • Best plays: XOM, CVX, COP, SLB

  2. Dividend & Defensive Plays (XLU, XLP, XLV)

    • Catalyst: Stable earnings and risk aversion

    • Best plays: PG, JNJ, ABBV, VZ

  3. AI & Tech (Selective)

    • Catalyst: Strong earnings, relative strength

    • Best plays: GOOGL, NET, BIDU, ORCL

Bearish Sectors

  1. Technology (XLK) & AI (Broad)

    • Headwinds: AI investment slowdowns, regulatory risks

    • Risky stocks: NVDA, MRVL, AMD, META

  2. Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

    • Headwinds: Tariffs increasing product costs

    • Risky stocks: TGT, HD, LOW, TSLA

  3. Chinese Equities (Broad)

    • Headwinds: Hedge fund outflows, retaliatory tariffs

    • Risky stocks: BABA, JD, KWEB, FXI

GOOGL Weekly Call Strategy

  • Trigger: Above 176

  • Strike: 177.50 calls

  • Target: 185

  • Stop: 170

  • Rationale: Relative strength during market selloff; clear path to 180-185 on market bounce

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