DCG Weekly Trading Plan: March 9-14, 2025

Market Overview

DCG Mastermind AI SCOUT - Previous Week Recap

• Monday: Trade war fears slammed stocks; Singapore investigated Nvidia chip sanctions; Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate turned negative, sparking recession fears

• Tuesday: Selloff broadened beyond tech, erasing post-election gains; CrowdStrike and AeroVironment sold off post-earnings

• Wednesday: Bulls rallied after weak ADP report; delayed car tariffs boosted automakers; Novo Nordisk targeted consumers directly

• Thursday: Trump paused Canada/Mexico tariffs; Chinese stocks surged on stimulus hopes; private equity sought bargains

• Friday: Markets jumped on lukewarm jobs report despite Powell's no-rush stance on rate cuts; Crypto Summit disappointed

Current Technical View

• SPX closed -3% for the week but rallied strongly Friday, holding the critical 200-day MA support at 5710

• This support zone coincides with AVWAP from April lows and 50% retracement from August low to 2025 high

• VIX showing contraction (inverted VIX/VXV ratio at 1.03), often signaling a market bottom

• Triple Witching OPEX approaching (March 21) - historically bullish pre-OPEX

Sentiment Indicators

• AAII sentiment shows extreme bearishness: 19.3% bullish (among lowest 66 readings ever), 57.1% bearish

• $14.2B in equity fund outflows last week

• CNN Fear & Greed Index: 20 (Extreme Fear)

• NYSE stocks above 50-MA: 47.2%, above 200-MA: 52.4%

• Market environment: "Risk Off" with fund outflows and defensive sector rotation

Key Weekly Events & Catalysts

Economic Releases (Chronological)

• Monday (11:00 AM): NY Fed Consumer Expectations

• Tuesday (10:00 AM): JOLTS Job Openings (Est: 7.5M, Prev: 7.6M)

• Wednesday (8:30 AM): CPI Inflation Report (Prev MoM: 0.3%, YoY: 2.9%) - MAJOR CATALYST

• Thursday (8:30 AM): PPI Inflation Data (Prev MoM: 0.3%, YoY: 3.2%)

• Thursday (8:30 AM): Initial Jobless Claims (Est: 230K, Prev: 221K)

• Friday (10:00 AM): Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Est: 63.2, Prev: 64.7)

Market Catalysts

• Tariff Implementation: 25% steel/aluminum tariffs on EU (Wednesday)

• Trump Meeting: Tech CEOs gathering (HP, Intel, IBM, Qualcomm) - Monday

• Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Impact on crypto markets

• Triple Witching OPEX: Approaching next week (historically bullish pre-OPEX)

• Fed in Blackout Period: No Fed speakers ahead of March 18-19 FOMC meeting

Notable Conferences & Events

• S&P Global CERAWeek (All week): Energy sector leaders in Houston

• SXSW Festival (All week): Tech companies showcase (MSFT, AUUD, LLY, IBM, RIVN)

• HumanX AI Conference (Monday): Focus on AI developments (SNOW, META)

• Solana ETF Decision Deadline (Tuesday): Potential crypto catalyst

• Multiple Investor Days: Cloudflare (NET - Wednesday), CHEF, NCMI, NVMI, BECN, NABL (Thursday)

Daily Trading Strategy

Monday, March 10 - Seasonality: Weak (39.7% historically up)

Key Events:

• 11:00 AM: NY Fed Consumer Expectations

• All Day: S&P Global CERAWeek begins

• All Day: Trump meets tech CEOs

• All Day: SXSW media festival participants

Earnings Focus:

• After Close: Oracle (ORCL), BioNTech (BNTX), Vail Resorts (MTN), Asana (ASAN)

• ORCL Analysis: Expected 8% Y/Y revenue growth, 6% profit rise; Stargate AI project catalyst

Trading Approach:

• Cautious positioning due to weak Monday seasonality

• Watch 5763 level in ES (major resistance/support zone now "mush" due to repeated tests)

• Hold existing long positions (if any) from Friday's rally but avoid adding significant exposure

• Beastmode Plays: ( PREMIUM PLAY FOR MEMBERS)

• Risk Management: Take profits at first level hit, leave runners for potential trend

Volatility Watch:

• High IV Movers: GRRR, MSTR

• High Short Interest: BMEA, LAZR

• IPO Watch: Redcloud Holdings (RCT) starts trading; Klarna seeking $1B IPO

Tuesday, March 11 - Seasonality: Strong (60.3% historically up)

Key Events:

• 10:00 AM: JOLTS Job Openings (Est: 7.5M)

• All Day: Solana ETF approval deadline

• Investor Days: ETN, GLBE, SLAB, TER

Earnings Focus:

• Pre-Market: Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Kohl's (KSS), Casey's (CASY), Ciena (CIEN)

• DKS Analysis: Options imply double-digit swing; Top sell candidate due to expected earnings miss

• FuelCell (FCEL) Analysis: Revenue expected to double, but EPS down 2%; high dilution risk

Trading Approach:

• Stronger bullish bias historically - look for continuation if Monday holds gains

• Long entries preferred on morning dips

• Monitor JOLTS for labor market clues (strong number supports bull case)

• Consider DKS short play post-earnings (bearish outlook)

• (PREMIUM PLAY)

• Crypto Catalyst: Solana ETF approval could trigger SOL breakout

Wednesday, March 12 - Seasonality: Mixed (49.2% historically up)

Key Events:

• 8:30 AM: CPI Inflation Report (MAJOR MARKET MOVER)

• All Day: EU 25% Steel/Aluminum Tariffs take effect

• Cloudflare (NET) Investor Day

• Starbucks (SBUX) Annual Meeting

Earnings Focus:

• After Close: Adobe (ADBE), American Eagle (AEO), UiPath (PATH), iRobot (IRBT), ZIM

• ADBE Analysis: Expected Y/Y EPS and revenue growth; new Photoshop AI app catalyst

• AEO Analysis: Deteriorating earnings expectations; top sell candidate

Trading Approach:

• Neutral pre-CPI, binary post-CPI approach

• REDUCE EXPOSURE PRE-CPI - key inflection point for markets

• Post-CPI Bullish Setup: If CPI cooler than expected → Long SPX targeting 5840+ (stop below pre-CPI low)

• Post-CPI Bearish Setup: If CPI hotter than expected → Short SPX targeting 5650 (stop above pre-CPI high)

• Watch NET (breakout potential on Investor Day), ADBE (earnings short opportunity)

• Avoid overnight positions due to PPI Thursday morning

Thursday, March 13 - Seasonality: Strong (60.3% historically up)

Key Events:

• 8:30 AM: PPI Inflation Data

• 8:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims (Est: 230K)

• Multiple Investor Days (CHEF, NCMI, NVMI, BECN, NABL)

Earnings Focus:

• After Close: Dollar General (DG), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), DocuSign (DOCU), Semtech (SMTC), Weibo (WB)

• (PREMIUM MEMBERS SUBSCRIBERS)

• ULTA Analysis: Top sell candidate due to expected earnings miss

Trading Approach:

• Follow-through on Wednesday's CPI reaction

• Position for Friday's Michigan Sentiment data

• Consider volatility plays around DOCU earnings (options imply large move)

• Watch ULTA for potential short opportunity

• Beastmode Play:(PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS)

Friday, March 14 - Seasonality: Moderately bullish (55.5% historically up)

Key Events:

• 10:00 AM: Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March)

• O-I Glass Investor Day, Pilgrim's Pride Investor Day

Earnings Focus:

• Pre-Market: Li Auto (LI)

• LI Analysis: February deliveries up 29.7% Y/Y; strong BEV strategy; potential buy candidate

Trading Approach:

Sector Focus & Trade Ideas

Bullish Sectors

1. Energy (XLE) & Oil Stocks

   • Catalyst: SPR refill plan & OPEC supply cuts

   • Best plays: XOM, CVX, COP, SLB

2. Dividend & Defensive Plays (XLU, XLP, XLV)

   • Catalyst: Stable earnings and risk aversion

   • Best plays: PG, JNJ, ABBV, VZ

3. AI & Tech (Selective)

   • Catalyst: Strong earnings, relative strength

   • Best plays: GOOGL, NET, BIDU, ORCL

Bearish Sectors

1. Technology (XLK) & AI (Broad)

   • Headwinds: AI investment slowdowns, regulatory risks

   • Risky stocks: NVDA, MRVL, AMD, META

2. Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

   • Headwinds: Tariffs increasing product costs

   • Risky stocks: TGT, HD, LOW, TSLA

3. Chinese Equities (Broad)

   • Headwinds: Hedge fund outflows, retaliatory tariffs

   • Risky stocks: BABA, JD, KWEB, FXI

GOOGL Weekly Call Strategy

• Trigger: Above 176

• Strike: 177.50 calls

• Target: 185

• Stop: 170

• Rationale: Relative strength during market selloff; clear path to 180-185 on market bounce

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