DCG Mastermind "Market Momentum & Macro Shifts: Key Trading Strategies for the Week of February 17, 2025 -

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Explore Crypto’s Next Chapter

Market Overview & Key Themes

The upcoming week features a mix of economic events, earnings reports, and geopolitical developments that could impact trading strategies. The market is entering a pivotal week with the FOMC Minutes release, earnings from major companies like Walmart ($WMT) and Alibaba ($BABA), and economic data including jobless claims and PMI surveys.

The bond market, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve commentary will likely dominate sentiment, with Fed Minutes on Wednesday as a key driver. The Apple ($AAPL) product launch could also influence tech-sector movements.

Market Sentiment & Key Observations

1. FED IMPACT (Hawkish Tone Expected)

   • The Fed Minutes on Wednesday are likely to be moderately hawkish, reinforcing the stance that inflation progress is still required before rate cuts.

   • 1-year and 2-year inflation swaps are trading at the highest levels since March 2023, which could increase bond yields and pressure tech stocks.

2. Apple Event - Tech Sector Watch

   • Apple ($AAPL) is set to announce a new product, likely a MacBook Air or iPhone SE 4.

   • Potential impact: Strength in semiconductors ($NVDA, $AMD), supply chain stocks ($TSM, $QCOM).

3. Earnings - Walmart, Alibaba, MercadoLibre, Rivian

   • Walmart ($WMT) results will provide insight into consumer health and retail strength.

   • Alibaba ($BABA) and MercadoLibre ($MELI) earnings will be closely watched for e-commerce trends and global consumer spending.

   • Rivian ($RIVN) earnings could impact EV sentiment, particularly Tesla ($TSLA).

4. Bond Market & Financial Conditions

   • A bear steepening in bonds (rising long-term yields) could pressure growth stocks, especially tech.

   • If Fed officials reinforce a hawkish stance, expect weakness in rate-sensitive sectors like tech and high-growth stocks.

Key Events This Week

Monday, February 17 (Markets Closed – Presidents Day)

• U.S. stock market is closed for the holiday.

• Key Speeches:

  • Fed Harker (9:30 AM)

  • Fed Bowman (10:20 AM)

  • Fed Waller (6:00 PM)

Tuesday, February 18

• Trump & Elon Musk Interview on Fox News (Potential impact on market sentiment and Tesla $TSLA)

• Economic Data:

  • NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Previous: -12.6)

  • NAHB Housing Market Index (Previous: 47)

• Earnings Spotlight:

  • Arista Networks ($ANET), Medtronic ($MDT), Baidu ($BIDU), Occidental Petroleum ($OXY)

• Volatility Watch:

  • Stocks with high implied volatility: MicroCloud Hologram ($HOLO), Faraday Future ($FFIE)

  • High Short Interest: Medical Properties Trust ($MPW), Kohl’s ($KSS)

Wednesday, February 19

• Biggest Market Event: Fed FOMC Minutes (2:00 PM)

• Apple ($AAPL) Launch Event (Potential New MacBook Air, iPhone SE 4)

• Economic Data:

  • Philly Fed New Orders

  • CB Leading Index MoM

• Earnings Spotlight:

  • Analog Devices ($ADI), Carvana ($CVNA), HSBC ($HSBC), Toast ($TOST)

Thursday, February 20

• Economic Data:

  • Weekly Jobless Claims

  • New Home Sales Data

  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey

• Earnings Spotlight:

  • Walmart ($WMT), Alibaba ($BABA), Booking Holdings ($BKNG), MercadoLibre ($MELI), Rivian ($RIVN)

Friday, February 21

• Economic Data:

  • Services & Manufacturing PMI

  • Existing Home Sales

  • Consumer Sentiment

• Earnings Spotlight:

  • Vipshop ($VIPS), United States Cellular ($USM)

Trading Strategies ( Premium Subscribers)

1. Earnings Trades

• Walmart ($WMT): Play straddle or strangle ahead of earnings if options implied volatility remains low.

• Apple ($AAPL): If momentum builds into the launch, consider buying calls.

• Alibaba ($BABA), MercadoLibre ($MELI): Post-earnings momentum trades.

2. Fed & Macro Trading

• If Fed Minutes are hawkish, short tech ($QQQ) and bonds (TLT puts).

• Long financials ($XLF, JPM, GS) if rates rise.

3. Crypto & Bitcoin Plays

• Bitcoin ($BTC) remains bullish, with ETF flows driving demand.

• Coinbase ($COIN) and MicroStrategy ($MSTR) could benefit from bullish BTC sentiment.

Crypto Trading Plan for the Week of February 17, 2025

Market Overview:

• Bitcoin (BTC) Price: ~$96,000 (fluctuating sentiment)

• Fear & Greed Index: Neutral (51)

• Dominance: BTC at 59.69%

• Market Cap: $3.19T (-0.82% last 24h)

• Notable Developments:

  • Fed FOMC Minutes (Wednesday): Expect market volatility; hawkish stance could lead to a BTC pullback.

  • Walmart & Alibaba Earnings (Thursday): Consumer spending insights affecting overall risk appetite.

  • FTX Creditor Payouts Begin (Feb 18): ~$16B will enter the market; potential liquidity-driven volatility.

Key Crypto Trading Strategies & Game Plan:

Bitcoin (BTC) Strategy:

🔹 Short-Term Sentiment: Mixed signals – Fear & Greed Index remains neutral, and institutional accumulation continues, but bearish technicals suggest potential downside. 🔹 Resistance Levels: $97,500 | $100,000
🔹 Support Levels: $94,000 | $92,500

✅ Trading Plan:

• Bullish Scenario: If BTC holds above $94K and breaks $97.5K, a push towards $100K is likely.

• Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold $94K could lead to retests at $92.5K, possibly $90K in extreme sell-offs.

• Options Strategy: Consider long calls at $97K or short-term puts if BTC breaks $94K with high volume.

Altcoin Watchlist & Strategy:

1. Ethereum (ETH)

   • Price: ~$2,720

   • Trend: Neutral/Bullish

   • Strategy: Whale accumulation signals bullish momentum; ETH/BTC ratio worth monitoring for strength. Look for a move above $2,800 for further upside.

2. Solana (SOL)

   • Price: ~$184 (-4.15%)

   • Trend: Bearish

   • Strategy: Weak momentum amid sector-wide memecoin liquidations. If SOL dips below $175, expect more downside; above $190, recovery possible.

3. BNB (Binance Coin)

   • Price: ~$670 (+2.44%)

   • Trend: Neutral

   • Catalyst: Binance ecosystem recovering after a period of stagnation. Look for a push past $700 for further upside.

4. Notable Low-Cap Coins

   • $DUKO: Trending on Phantom chain, strong recovery signal.

   • $NPC: Showing signs of reversal, but still high risk.

   • $NMR: Breakout confirmed, potential 40-50% upside.

Crypto Key Market Catalysts:

📌 Fed FOMC Minutes (Wed):

• A hawkish tone could lead to further market risk-off behavior, pulling BTC down.

• A dovish stance might fuel a Bitcoin breakout above $97.5K.

📌 FTX Creditor Payouts ($16B Liquidity Influx - Feb 18):

• Positive Scenario: Fresh liquidity might trigger renewed accumulation.

• Negative Scenario: Selling pressure from former FTX users could flood the market.

📌 Walmart & Alibaba Earnings (Thursday):

• Stronger-than-expected results → Bullish for consumer sentiment, good for BTC & risk-on assets.

• Weak earnings → Market could turn risk-off.

Meme Coins & Market Trends:

• $LIBRA Scandal: Market reacting negatively, expect further sell-offs.

• Argentina Political Instability: Impeachment threats affecting memecoin market.

• Duko Revival: Trending #1, watching for a potential run to $20M market cap.

Summary & Execution Plan

🚀 Bullish Setup:

• BTC holds $94K support and breaks $97.5K with volume.

• ETH breaks $2,800 → potential move toward $3K.

• Altcoins ($DUKO, $NMR, $BNB) leading trends higher.

⚠ Bearish Setup:

• BTC breaks below $94K, downside targets $92.5K - $90K.

• FTX liquidity leads to sell-off events.

• Fed remains hawkish, spooking risk-on markets.

🔹 Execution:

• Scalp trades around BTC levels $94K & $97.5K.

• Spot & leverage trades on ETH, BNB, and SOL based on breakouts.

• Monitor FTX payouts for liquidity trends.

🔥 Final Take: Stay nimble – macro & liquidity shifts will dictate direction.

Key Takeaways & Actionable Plan

✅ Monday → Observe bond yields & market sentiment post-holiday
✅ Tuesday → Watch Tesla & tech momentum post Musk interview
✅ Wednesday → Major event: Fed Minutes & Apple Launch
✅ Thursday → Walmart & Alibaba earnings to impact consumer & retail stocks
✅ Friday → PMI & consumer sentiment could drive final market direction

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Key Market Events & Trading Triggers

1️⃣ Presidents Day Pause: U.S. stock markets closed Monday, setting up for a volatile, event-packed trading week.
2️⃣ Trump & Musk Take Center Stage: High-stakes Fox News interview on Tuesday—market-moving insights expected.
3️⃣ Fed FOMC Minutes – The Main Event: Investors brace for Wednesday’s economic highlight as the Fed’s stance on inflation and rate policy is revealed.
4️⃣ Apple’s Big Reveal: $AAPL’s launch event on Wednesday could shake up tech stocks and drive sector momentum.
5️⃣ Retail Giants Report: Earnings from Walmart ($WMT) and Alibaba ($BABA) on Thursday provide key consumer spending insights.
6️⃣ Economic Data Blitz: Thursday and Friday bring jobless claims, PMI data, existing home sales, and consumer sentiment—crucial for market direction.
7️⃣ Market Movers: Tesla, Palantir, Rivian, and Carvana among key stocks to watch as volatility surges.
8️⃣ Fed Speakers on Deck: A wave of Fed officials speaking throughout the week could add fuel to market uncertainty.
9️⃣ Sector Spotlight: Crypto momentum builds as Bitcoin gains institutional traction—will it break key resistance levels?
🔟 Macro Meets Earnings: ~20% of S&P 500 companies report this week—keeping traders on high alert.

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