🔥 DCG COMMAND CENTER WEEKLY GAMEPLAN 🔥CRITICAL CPI INFLATION DAY: Tech Sector Collapse Meets Friday the 13th Trading

Friday, February 13, 2026 | Pre-Market Intelligence Report

February 13, 2026

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⚡ BREAKING: Market at Critical Inflection Point as CPI Looms

SEO HEADLINE: Markets Brace for CPI Inflation Report February 13 2026 | S&P Futures Down Tech Selloff Deepens | AI Disruption Fears Trigger Rotation

SUBTITLE: Critical 8:30 AM ET inflation data could determine market direction after brutal tech selloff - S&P futures hover at 6,831 as traders position for 2.5% CPI print amid mounting AI disruption concerns

📊 KEY THINGS TO KNOW GOING INTO FRIDAY'S SESSION

🎯 CRITICAL CATALYST TODAY:

  • CPI Report: 8:30 AM ET - Consensus 2.5% YoY (Previous: 2.7%)

  • S&P 500 Futures: 6,831.25 (-19.75 / -0.29%) as of pre-market

  • Fear & Greed Index: 37/100 - BACK IN FEAR TERRITORY

  • Market Closed Yesterday: Down -1.57% (S&P), -2.03% (Nasdaq), -1.34% (Dow)

🚨 URGENT MARKET THEMES:

  1. AI disruption fears spreading beyond tech into real estate, trucking, software

  2. SaaS sector in deep Wave C correction

  3. Bitcoin holding $66,000 support amid crypto weakness

  4. Applied Materials +13% AH earnings beat signals semiconductor resilience

  5. White House credit card rate cap rhetoric continues weighing on financials

🎯 TODAY'S CPI INFLATION REPORT - GAME CHANGER

What Wall Street Expects:

  • Headline CPI: 2.5% YoY (down from 2.7%)

  • Core CPI: 2.5% YoY (down from 2.6%)

  • Month-over-Month: +0.3% both headline and core

  • Release Time: 8:30 AM ET - CONFIRMED

Consensus Estimates By Institution:

Expecting 2.4%: Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, UBS, BNP Paribas Expecting 2.5%: JPMorgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citadel, TD Securities, Deutsche Bank, Barclays

🎲 TRADING THE CPI:

If CPI Comes In HOT (2.6%+):

  • Expect immediate futures dump

  • Tech gets hammered further

  • Defensive rotation accelerates

  • Rate cut expectations pushed back

  • Target: S&P 6,750 support test

If CPI Comes In COOL (2.3% or below):

  • Violent short squeeze potential

  • Tech could bounce 2-3%

  • Growth stocks catch bid

  • Rate cut hopes revive

  • Target: S&P 6,920 resistance

💰 AFTER-HOURS EARNINGS EXPLOSIONS

🚀 BIG WINNERS (Sympathy Plays for Friday):

Applied Materials (AMAT) - BLOWOUT BEAT

  • Q1 EPS: $2.38 vs $2.21 est (+7.7% beat)

  • Revenue: $7.01B vs $6.88B est

  • Guidance: Q2 EPS $2.44-$2.84 vs $2.29 est

  • AH Move: +13% surge to $359 range

  • Entry: Watching $350-355 on pullback

  • Targets: $375, $390

  • Sympathy Plays: LRCX, KLAC, ASML (semiconductor equipment)

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HIGH CONVICTION

Rivian (RIVN) - DELIVERY GUIDANCE MONSTER

  • Q4 EPS: -$0.54 vs -$0.68 est (BEAT)

  • Revenue: $1.29B vs $1.26B est

  • 2026 Deliveries: 62,000-67,000 units (+47-59% YoY)

  • AH Move: +14% surge

  • Entry: $14.00-14.50 range

  • Targets: $16.50, $18.00

  • Sympathy Plays: LCID, FSR (EV sector)

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ STRONG BUY

Airbnb (ABNB) - STRONG GUIDANCE

  • Q4 Revenue: $2.78B vs $2.71B est

  • Q1 2026 Guidance: $2.59-2.63B vs $2.52B est

  • AH Move: +4-5%

  • Upgraded: Deutsche Bank to BUY

  • Entry: $132-135 range

  • Targets: $145, $155

  • Sympathy Plays: EXPE, BKNG (travel sector)

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ BUY

Crocs (CROX) - GUIDANCE BLOWOUT

  • Q4 EPS: $2.29 vs $1.91 est (+20% beat)

  • Revenue: $958M vs $916M est

  • FY2026 Guidance: $12.88-13.35 EPS vs $11.92 est

  • Move: +21% premarket surge

  • Entry: $100-105 on any dip

  • Targets: $115, $125

  • Sympathy Plays: BIRK, DECK (footwear)

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ EXPLOSIVE

Roku (ROKU) - REVENUE BEAT + STRONG OUTLOOK

  • FY2026 Guidance: $5.5B vs $5.34B est

  • AH Move: +10%

  • Entry: Watch $85-88 range

  • Targets: $95, $102

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Dutch Bros (BROS) - MASSIVE BEAT

  • Q4 EPS: $0.17 vs $0.09 est (+89% beat!)

  • Revenue: $443.6M vs $423.8M est

  • AH Move: +13%

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Instacart (CART) - BEAT

  • Revenue: $992M vs $974M est

  • AH Move: +13%

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐

💥 BIG LOSERS (Short Opportunities):

Pinterest (PINS) - DISASTER GUIDANCE

  • Q1 Guidance: $951-971M vs $981M est

  • AH Move: -17% COLLAPSE

  • Short Entry: $34-35 range

  • Targets: $30, $28

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ SHORT

DraftKings (DKNG) - REVENUE MISS

  • FY2026 Guidance: $6.5-6.9B vs $7.32B est

  • AH Move: -13%

  • Short Entry: $40-42

  • Targets: $36, $34

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ SHORT

Toast (TOST) - PROFIT GUIDANCE MISS

  • AH Move: -13%

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ SHORT

Coinbase (COIN) - CRYPTO WINTER CONTINUES

  • Q4: LOSS of $667M (vs $1.3B profit YoY)

  • Revenue: $1.78B vs $1.83B est

  • Price Target CUT: BTIG $340 → $280

  • Bitcoin Context: BTC down to $66,000 range

  • Rating: ⭐⭐ AVOID

📈 S&P 500 FUTURES KEY LEVELS

Current Price: 6,831.25

CRITICAL SUPPORT LEVELS:

  • L3 SHORT BREAKOUT: 6,824 (IMMEDIATE)

  • L4 SHORT BREAKOUT: 6,812.75 (STRONG)

  • MAJOR SUPPORT: 6,782.25 (Daily low zone)

RESISTANCE LEVELS:

  • H1 SHORT: 6,889.25

  • H3 LONG BREAKOUT: 6,960 (Previous consolidation)

  • H6 LONG BREAKOUT: 7,001.90 (Psychological)

  • TARGET ON STRENGTH: 7,060 (Previous high)

TRADING STRATEGY:

  • Below 6,824: Bearish bias, test 6,782

  • Above 6,890: Bullish bias, target 6,960

  • CPI Beat = Likely breakdown to 6,750

  • CPI Miss = Possible squeeze to 6,920+

🔥 SECTOR ROTATION & MONEY FLOW ANALYSIS

📊 YESTERDAY'S SECTOR PERFORMANCE (Feb 12):

LEADING SECTORS (GREEN):

  • ✅ Utilities: +1.48%

  • ✅ Consumer Staples: +0.92%

  • ✅ Real Estate: +0.16%

LAGGING SECTORS (RED):

  • ❌ Technology: -2.63% (WORST)

  • ❌ Financials: -1.93%

  • ❌ Communication Services: -1.80%

  • ❌ Energy: -1.82%

  • ❌ Industrials: -1.20%

  • ❌ Consumer Discretionary: -1.38%

  • ❌ Materials: -1.47%

💡 ROTATION ANALYSIS:

DEFENSIVE ROTATION IN PLAY: The market is clearly rotating OUT of high-beta tech and INTO defensive sectors. This is a classic risk-off move ahead of major data.

Key Observations:

  1. SaaS Bloodbath: Software names getting destroyed on AI disruption fears

  2. Financials Weak: Credit card rate cap rhetoric + bank scrutiny

  3. Utilities Leading: Classic safety play

  4. FAANG Pain: Apple -5%, Meta -4.8%, Amazon -2.3%

🎯 HOT SECTORS FOR FRIDAY:

BULLISH (If CPI cooperates):

  • 🔧 Semiconductors (AMAT earnings tailwind)

  • 🚗 EVs (RIVN momentum)

  • 🏠 Travel (ABNB upgrade)

  • 👟 Footwear (CROX explosion)

BEARISH:

  • 💻 SaaS (Wave C continues)

  • 💳 Credit Cards (Political pressure)

  • 📱 Social Media (PINS collapse)

  • 🎰 Gaming (DKNG miss)

🌐 WHITE HOUSE & POLITICAL IMPACT

Trump Administration Market Moves:

HEADWINDS Created:

  1. Credit Card Rate Cap Proposal (10% for 1 year)

    • Impacted: V, MA, JPM, C, BAC

    • Status: Cannot be implemented unilaterally but rhetoric weighs

  2. Medicare Advantage Rate Pressure

    • Health insurers plummeted on preliminary notice

    • Impacted: UNH, HUM, CVS, CI

  3. Tariff Uncertainty

    • Walked back on Canada but volatility remains

    • Mixed signals creating uncertainty

TAILWINDS:

  • Tax cut discussions supporting 2026 earnings growth

  • AI infrastructure investment support

  • Diplomatic approaches to Greenland reducing some geopolitical risk

NET IMPACT: Mixed - helping corporate profits but creating sector-specific headaches

₿ BITCOIN & CRYPTO SENTIMENT

Bitcoin (BTC): $66,063-$66,381 range

  • 24h Change: -1.7% to -2.12%

  • Key Support: $65,000 (CRITICAL)

  • Resistance: $68,000, $70,000

Technical Picture:

  • RSI: 29.55 (OVERSOLD)

  • Below both EMA 50 ($82,024) and EMA 100 ($88,526)

  • Would need +23.6% rally to reclaim EMA 50

  • Consolidating in $65-68K range after sharp selloff

Liquidations (24h): $107.45M

  • Long liquidations: $79.19M

  • Short liquidations: $28.26M

  • Sign of overleveraged longs getting flushed

Altcoin Action:

  • ETH: $1,936-1,954 range (-1% to -2.11%)

  • SOL: $77.92-79.95 (-2.42% to -2.56%)

  • BNB: $599-611 (-3.17% to +0.04%)

Sentiment: FEAR mode - Crypto Fear & Greed at 31/100

Trading Strategy:

  • Support Play: Buy $65,000 with tight stops

  • Resistance: Sell $68,000-70,000 rallies

  • Breakout: Above $70K = shift to accumulation

  • Breakdown: Below $65K = test $60K

Sympathy Plays:

  • RIOT, MARA (Bitcoin miners)

  • COIN (already down AH on earnings)

  • MSTR (Michael Saylor exposure)

📊 SOCIAL INSIGHTS & MASTERMIND CHATTER

X/Twitter Trading Community Highlights:

From TheLongInvest:

"2026 sell off appears to have caught many off guard. Crypto was first, SaaS now, Mag 7 next, Then Small Caps. Each one will offer opportunities."

Analysis: This staggered correction thesis is playing out. SaaS is currently in Wave C. Position for Mag 7 weakness next.

"We will continue to accumulate positions like $ZETA and $HIMS in Wave C. This is not where you sell."

From Palmer:

"$HOOD Cathie Wood buys $12.4M...was that the big announcement? Nice dickpump Vlad."

Market Takeaway: Institutional buying in HOOD despite weakness

Key Rumors & Buzz:

  • Mr Beast bullish on ETH - could move crypto markets (200M viewers per video)

  • Tom Lee's Mr Beast investment looking prescient

  • NBIS correction standard, positioning for SaaS recovery

  • Monday historically weakest day for S&P 500

📅 UPCOMING CATALYSTS & ECONOMIC DATA

Friday February 13:

  • 8:30 AM ET: CPI Inflation Report (MAJOR)

  • Retail Sales (already showed weakness in December)

Next Week Key Events:

  • Monday: Presidents Day (MARKET CLOSED)

  • Wednesday: FOMC Minutes release

  • Thursday: Housing Starts, Jobless Claims

  • Friday: Leading Economic Indicators

Earnings Next Week:

Watch for continued guidance updates from major retailers and AI companies

🎯 DCG COMMAND CENTER TRADING GAMEPLAN

PRE-CPI POSITIONING (Before 8:30 AM):

HEDGED APPROACH:

  • 30% cash for CPI reaction

  • Small positions in AMAT sympathy plays

  • Short-term puts on QQQ as hedge

  • Long volatility (VIX) trade

IF CPI COOL (2.4% or below):

  1. BUY IMMEDIATELY:

    • AMAT $350-360 (semis leader)

    • RIVN $14-15 (EV momentum)

    • QQQ $480-485 (tech bounce)

    • ABNB $132-137 (travel upgrade)

  2. COVER SHORTS:

    • Exit any tech shorts

    • Take profits on defensive longs

IF CPI HOT (2.6% or above):

  1. SHORT:

    • QQQ $470-475

    • SMH $260-265 (even despite AMAT)

    • High-beta tech names

  2. BUY:

    • XLU (utilities)

    • XLP (consumer staples)

    • Gold/GLD

    • VIX calls

POST-CPI INTRADAY SETUPS:

9:30-10:30 AM (Opening Hour):

  • Let initial volatility settle

  • Watch for failed breakouts/breakdowns

  • Volume confirmation critical

10:30-11:30 AM (Trend Establishment):

  • Enter primary positions with clear trend

  • Use moving averages for confirmation

  • VWAP as decision line

2:00-4:00 PM (Power Hour):

  • Watch for institutional flows

  • Options expiry positioning

  • Weekend gamma squeeze or dump

🔥 TOP CONVICTION TRADES FOR FRIDAY

STOCK PLAYS:

1. APPLIED MATERIALS (AMAT) - ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

  • Entry: $350-360 range on any early weakness

  • Stop: $340

  • Target 1: $375 (+6%)

  • Target 2: $390 (+11%)

  • Size: 3-5% of portfolio

  • Catalyst: Blowout earnings, strong guidance, AI tailwinds

  • Risk: Broader market selloff on CPI

2. RIVIAN (RIVN) - ⭐⭐⭐⭐

  • Entry: $14.00-14.75

  • Stop: $13.00

  • Target 1: $16.50 (+18%)

  • Target 2: $18.00 (+29%)

  • Size: 2-3% of portfolio

  • Catalyst: 2026 delivery guidance, R2 vehicle launch Q2

  • Risk: EV sector sentiment, execution

3. CROCS (CROX) - ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

  • Entry: $100-107 (pullback from premarket surge)

  • Stop: $95

  • Target 1: $115 (+13%)

  • Target 2: $125 (+23%)

  • Size: 2-3% of portfolio

  • Catalyst: Massive earnings beat, strong 2026 guidance

  • Risk: Retail sector weakness

4. ROKU (ROKU) - ⭐⭐⭐⭐

  • Entry: $85-90

  • Stop: $80

  • Target 1: $95 (+8%)

  • Target 2: $102 (+16%)

  • Size: 2% of portfolio

  • Catalyst: Revenue guidance beat, streaming growth

  • Risk: Advertising slowdown

SHORT PLAYS:

5. PINTEREST (PINS) SHORT - ⭐⭐⭐⭐

  • Entry: $34-36 (bounce)

  • Stop: $38

  • Target 1: $30 (-14%)

  • Target 2: $28 (-20%)

  • Size: 2% of portfolio (short)

  • Catalyst: Terrible guidance, downgrade

  • Risk: Short squeeze on tech rally

OPTIONS PLAYS:

6. AMAT BULL CALL SPREAD

  • Buy: March 20 $330 Call

  • Sell: March 20 $350 Call

  • Net Debit: ~$7.50

  • Max Profit: $12.50 (167% ROI) if AMAT hits $348+

  • Breakeven: $337.50

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

7. SPY IRON CONDOR (If expecting range)

  • Sell: March $680 Put / Buy $675 Put

  • Sell: March $700 Call / Buy $705 Call

  • Strategy: If expecting consolidation post-CPI

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐

CRYPTO PLAYS:

8. BITCOIN SUPPORT PLAY

  • Entry: $65,000-65,500

  • Stop: $64,000

  • Target: $68,000 (+4.6%)

  • Size: 1-2% crypto allocation

  • Catalyst: Oversold RSI, support holding

  • Risk: Breakdown to $60K

  • Rating: ⭐⭐⭐

⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT RULES

  1. Position Sizing: No more than 5% in any single trade

  2. Stop Losses: MANDATORY - No exceptions

  3. CPI Volatility: Reduce size by 50% if playing into report

  4. Correlation: Don't stack correlated trades (e.g., 5 semiconductor stocks)

  5. Cash Reserve: Keep 20-30% cash for opportunistic entries

🎓 EDUCATIONAL EDGE: Understanding Market Phases

Current Phase: Risk-Off Rotation

  • Characteristics: Tech selling, defensive buying, volatility spike

  • Duration: Can last days to weeks depending on catalysts

  • Opportunities: Counter-trend plays, sector rotation, volatility trades

What Comes Next?: Either:

  1. Capitulation → Sharp selloff → Reversal

  2. Gradual Recovery → Slow grind higher

  3. Further Weakness → Break to new lows

Friday's CPI will likely determine which path

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📊 FINAL MARKET SUMMARY

Thursday's Brutal Action:

  • S&P 500: -1.57% (6,832.76)

  • Nasdaq: -2.03%

  • Dow: -1.34% (49,451.98)

  • VIX: +12.71% (fear spike)

Key Themes:

  1. AI disruption fears spreading

  2. Tech sector under pressure

  3. Defensive rotation ongoing

  4. CPI anxiety building

  5. Earnings providing mixed signals

What Friday Brings:

  • 8:30 AM CPI: Market direction setter

  • Volatility: Expect 2-3% intraday swings

  • Opportunities: Both long and short setups viable

  • Risk: Position sizing is critical

🎯 DCG BOTTOM LINE

Market Bias: NEUTRAL-TO-BEARISH until CPI Primary Strategy: React, don't predict Best Setups: Earnings winners with catalysts Biggest Risk: CPI upside surprise Biggest Opportunity: Oversold bounce if CPI cooperates

Friday the 13th could be lucky or cursed - the CPI report at 8:30 AM ET will decide.

The Winning Approach:

  1. Don't fight the trend

  2. Respect support/resistance

  3. Use stops religiously

  4. Take profits when you have them

  5. Live to trade another day

Trade Smart. Trade Safe. Trade Profitable.

📞 STAY CONNECTED

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Not financial advice.

🔥 GOOD LUCK TRADING FRIDAY THE 13TH! 🔥

Published: February 13, 2026 - 6:00 AM ET DCG Command Center - Where Smart Money Trades

#Trading #StockMarket #CPI #Inflation #TechStocks #Semiconductors #AMAT #Bitcoin #Crypto #DayTrading #SwingTrading #MarketAnalysis

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