DCG ALERT INTRADAY TRADE REPORT “May 13 Market Momentum: Ride the Trend or Get Left Behind

High-Conviction Intraday Breakouts & Overnight Winners Backed by CPI Cooldown and Trump Trade Surge”

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Gold hitting record highs

The price of gold keeps heating up. If the record-breaking year of 2024 wasn't enough, gold hit a major historic 2025 milestone by crossing the $3,000/ounce threshold!

Here are 3 Key Reasons:

  1. Looming economic & political uncertainty

  2. Increasing central bank demand

  3. Rising National Debt - over $36 Trillion

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According to a recent statement from Jeffrey Gundlach, famed American business man and investor… “Gold continues its bull market that we’ve been talking about for a couple of years, ever since it was down to $1,800.” He expects gold to reach $4,000/oz.

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Market Update & Trade Plan for Remainder of the Session

The S&P 500 has maintained its bullish stance today, continuing yesterday's momentum following the US-China trade truce. This morning's softer-than-expected CPI print (2.3% YoY vs. 2.4% expected) has further fueled risk-on sentiment by increasing Fed rate cut expectations. With JPMorgan cutting US recession risk below 50% and Barclays no longer expecting a recession in H2 2025, the market backdrop remains constructive despite some sector-specific headwinds.

Morning Price Action & Key Developments

Market Indices Performance (as of 9:45 AM PST)

  • S&P 500: Holding above 5850 support level with continued bullish momentum

  • Nasdaq: Outperforming with technology leadership

  • VIX: Remains below 20, indicating sustained risk appetite

  • Treasuries: Yields moderating after CPI data, supporting growth stocks

  • Bitcoin: Consolidating near $104,500, maintaining bullish structure

Key Headline Catalysts

  • CPI Data: Came in at 2.3% YoY (below 2.4% expected), Core CPI at 2.8% (in line)

  • Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Increased following softer inflation data

  • Trump Trade Policy: Further tariff reduction announced (de minimis tariff cut)

  • US-China Relations: Ongoing positive developments following yesterday's truce

Sector Analysis & Actionable Opportunities

Strongest Bullish Sectors

1. Technology:

  • AAPL: Pushing toward 52-week highs on partnership with Synchron for neural iPhone control technology and new accessibility features announcement

  • NVDA: Significant institutional option flow with 5000 June 2026 $125/$155 call spreads bought at $10.50, continuing to benefit from AI momentum

  • CYBR: Beat Q1 expectations with 43.3% revenue increase and strong ARR growth

2. Retail/Consumer Discretionary:

  • ONON: Surged to 52-week high after beating Q1 expectations with 43% revenue growth

  • JD: Reported solid Q1 with 15.8% revenue growth and strong user growth, though facing regulatory scrutiny in China

  • SE: Despite mixed results, showing 19.6% growth in GMV, maintaining positive sector outlook

3. Cryptocurrency-Related:

  • COIN: Continuing momentum from S&P 500 inclusion announcement

  • HOOD: Gaining on WonderFi acquisition for $180M, marking expansion into Canada

  • KDLY: Showing volatility after Nakamoto Holdings merger to establish Bitcoin treasury

4. Energy (Oil/Digital Infrastructure):

  • LB: Reported significant land expansion from 72,000 to 276,000 acres for digital infrastructure supporting AI and crypto mining

  • Oil prices showing V-bottom recovery pattern

Bearish/Cautious Sectors

1. Healthcare:

  • UNH: Dropped 11% after announcing unexpected CEO exit and suspending 2025 guidance

  • GSK: Terminated development of lung cancer therapy after mid-stage trial failures

  • Some bright spots exist (CYTK, ILMN) but overall sector sentiment remains negative

2. Solar Energy:

  • ENPH: Downgraded to Underweight by Barclays due to potential repeal of Section 25D tax credits

3. Consumer Defensive:

  • Continues to lag in risk-on environment with ongoing overvaluation concerns

CPI Report ✅

  • CPI YoY: 2.3% (vs. 2.4% est) ✅

  • Core CPI YoY: 2.8% (in-line)
    ➡️ This is the lowest headline inflation since Feb 2021.
    📉 Rate Cut Odds Repricing → Bond yields down sharply
    📈 Equities surged → $SPX up 3.2%, $QQQ & semis lead

Trend Day Confirmed

  • NYSE TICK: Sustained 1000+ spikes 🔥

  • Advance/Decline: 5:1 breadth

  • VIX crushed to 18.39

  • DXY down → Soft dollar = risk-on fuel

📌 Market Sentiment:

✅ Risk-On | 🔥 Tech, Crypto, Semis, Financials
🚫 Caution | Utilities, Defensive Growth, Consumer Staples

🧭 Strategy Today:

  • 📊 Trend Day play → Long bias into strength

  • ⚠️ Be selective near supply zones (profit-taking may kick in late)

🧩 Key Market Catalyst Recap:

📰 Stock Market News:

  • $MSFT: 3% layoff (streamlining AI divisions)

  • $NVDA: 18,000 AI chips going to Saudi Arabia 🚀

  • $UNH: CEO exit, $380c Jan’26 blocks sold (protective)

  • $COIN: Joins S&P 500 → +22% 🚀

  • $AMD: $10B AI deal with Humain

  • $HOOD: Jan 2027 ITM $50 calls bought → deep conviction

  • $SHLS: 2027 $12 calls bought (growth bet)

  • $TSLL: Bullish synthetic structure for 2027

🗞 Trump Trade/Crypto

  • Trump meets with China/UK → Signals Trade Truce

  • GOP Tax Bill draft → Pro-growth, market-favorable

  • Trump says: “Tax bill = Rocket Ship 🚀”

  • $NVDA/Trump/AI Saudi Pipeline = institutional tailwind

🪙 Crypto

  • BTC +2.5% (currently near $104.K)

  • Strong alt momentum: $ETH, $DOGE, $PEPE, $TRUMP

  • ETF flows supportive → High inflows into $IBIT

  • Option call sweeps on Bitcoin ETF Sept $65c

Overall Market Strategy for May 13, 2025:

🎯 Intraday:

  • Ride trend day upside → Favor semis, AI, fintech, crypto proxies

  • Trade breakouts, don’t fade strength → focus on high-volume leaders

💼 Overnight Setup:

  • 🚀 Hold $COIN, $PLTR, $NVDA, $AMD, $TQQQ into tomorrow

  • 📊 CPI tailwind + Trump Tax Bill momentum likely to extend gains

Afternoon Trading Strategy

  1. Focus on Strongest Sectors: Prioritize technology and consumer discretionary for long positions

  2. Monitor Key Technical Levels: Watch S&P 5850 support and 5900 resistance

  3. Risk Management: Keep position sizes moderate given recent volatility and strong rally

  4. Sector Rotation: Be prepared for potential rotation from technology to defensive sectors if momentum fades

  5. Options Strategy: For swing positions, consider call spreads rather than outright calls to manage volatility

Key Levels to Watch

S&P 500 Futures:

  • Support: 5850, 5815

  • Resistance: 5900, 5940

NASDAQ Futures:

  • Support: 20,250, 20,100

  • Resistance: 20,400, 20,550

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