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- π₯FED DECISION DAY: AI CHIP BOOM MEETS RATE CUT REALITY - MARKET SITS ON EDGE AS POWELL SPEAKS π
π₯FED DECISION DAY: AI CHIP BOOM MEETS RATE CUT REALITY - MARKET SITS ON EDGE AS POWELL SPEAKS π
Silver Hits $61, NVIDIA China Deal Electrifies Markets While Fed Holds Keys to December Rally----DCG COMMAND CENTER - Market Intelligence Report----Wednesday, December 10, 2025 | Pre-Market Edition
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β‘ KEY THINGS TO KNOW GOING INTO TODAY'S SESSION
β
Fed Rate Decision at 2PM ET - 97% probability of 25bps cut, but Powell's hawkish tone could crush Santa Rally hopes
β
NVIDIA China Breakthrough - Trump greenlights H200 chip sales with 25% government revenue share, Alibaba & ByteDance place emergency orders
β
Silver Historic Rally - Precious metal rockets to $61/oz (+110% YTD), signaling major inflation hedge rotation
β
GE Vernova Explodes - Doubles dividend, raises 2028 targets, stock surges 8% pre-market on AI power demand
β
Bitcoin Tests $94K - Crypto shows resilience ahead of Fed, Eric Trump's America Bitcoin buys 416 BTC ($38M)
Market Sentiment: Cautiously Optimistic but High Volatility Expected
VIX: 17.5 (elevated, signals uncertainty)
S&P Futures: 6,842.75 (-0.08%)
π― S&P FUTURES ($ES) KEY LEVELS
Current Price: 6,842.75
Major Support Levels:
S1: 6,825 (critical short-term support)
S2: 6,815 (yesterday's low)
S3: 6,780 (retest zone for long entries)
Major Resistance Levels:
R1: 6,857 (intraday target)
R2: 6,868 (yesterday's high - magnet level)
R3: 6,890 (breakout target)
Trading Strategy: Markets stuck in tight 6,825-6,868 range awaiting Fed. Bulls need 6,847 reclaim to target 6,868. Break below 6,838 opens door to 6,825 support test.
π¨ BREAKING NEWS CATALYST WRAP-UP (After 3 AM CST)
SEMICONDUCTOR & AI SECTOR
NVIDIA ($NVDA) - MAJOR BULLISH CATALYST βββββ
Last Close: $184.97 (Dec 9, 2025)
After-Hours: $189.88 (+2.7%)
Pre-Market: $185.00 range
BREAKING: Trump administration approves NVIDIA H200 chip sales to "approved customers" in China with unprecedented 25% revenue share going to U.S. government. This is a GAME CHANGER.
Key Details:
Alibaba ($BABA) and ByteDance holding emergency meetings to place major H200 orders
Very limited H200 quantities currently produced - supply concerns driving urgency
Chinese tech firms seeking clarity from NVIDIA on allocation
Decision requires Chinese government approval, which may review purchase requests
However - Risk Alert: DeepSeek reportedly using "thousands" of banned Blackwell chips smuggled into China to build next AI model, creating potential policy backlash.
Trade Rating: 8.5/10 (High Conviction Bullish Short-Term, Watch Geopolitical Risk)
Entry Zone: $183-$186
Target 1: $195 (+5.4%)
Target 2: $205 (+10.8%)
Stop Loss: $178 (-3.8%)
Sympathy Plays:
$AMD - Benefits from similar export terms, up 0.11% pre-market at $221.87
$INTC - Expected to receive similar chip export approval
$AVGO - AI infrastructure beneficiary
$MU - Micron reports Dec 17, positioning for AI memory demand
PALANTIR ($PLTR) - DEFENSE & AI INFRASTRUCTURE MOMENTUM ββββ
Last Close: $181.85 (Dec 9, 2025)
After-Hours: $180.17 (-0.73%)
BULLISH CATALYST: U.S. Navy partnership announced to deploy Palantir's Foundry and AIP across shipbuilding supply chain to accelerate submarine production and modernize fleet management ("ShipOS" initiative).
Additional Catalyst: "Chain Reaction" project with NVIDIA and CenterPoint Energy to solve AI data center energy bottlenecks - positions PLTR as infrastructure coordinator for AI boom.
Q3 Highlights:
Revenue: $1.18B (+63% YoY)
EPS: $0.21 (beat by 23%)
U.S. Commercial Revenue: +121% YoY
Operating Margin: 51% (record)
Concerns:
Trading at 432x trailing earnings
Ark Invest continues trimming position (sold $57M on Dec 4)
Michael Burry holds 5M put options
Trade Rating: 7/10 (High Growth, Extreme Valuation Risk)
Entry Zone: $178-$182
Target: $195 (+7.2%)
Stop: $172 (-5.5%)
Position Size: Smaller due to valuation
ENERGY & POWER INFRASTRUCTURE
GE VERNOVA ($GEV) - MONSTER MOVE βββββ
Last Close: $625.30 (Dec 9, 2025)
After-Hours: ~$668 (+6.8%)
Pre-Market: Continuing strong
EXPLOSIVE CATALYST: Investor Day Blowout
Doubled dividend to $0.50/quarter (was $0.25)
Increased buyback from $6B to $10B
Raised 2028 Revenue Target to $52B (from $45B)
Raised 2028 EBITDA Margin to 20% (from 14%)
Free Cash Flow 2025-2028: $22B (from $14B estimate)
Why It Matters: AI data centers driving unprecedented power demand. GEV positioned as pure-play beneficiary of grid modernization and AI electrification.
Analyst Response:
BofA raised PT to $804 (from $725) - Buy rating
Multiple firms upgrading on AI power demand thesis
Trade Rating: 9/10 (Institutional Buying, Clear Catalyst)
Entry Zone: $630-$650 (wait for pullback from pre-market spike)
Target 1: $700 (+8.6% from $645)
Target 2: $750 (+16.3%)
Stop: $610 (-5.4%)
Why This Works: Data center power demand projected to grow 160% by 2030. GEV has pricing power and multi-year revenue visibility.
PRECIOUS METALS - HISTORIC MOVE
SILVER - RECORD HIGH $61/OZ (+110% YTD) π₯
BREAKING: Silver hits all-time high of $61 per ounce, up an unprecedented 110% this year. This is the biggest precious metals story of 2025.
Drivers:
Inflation hedge demand surging
Industrial demand from solar and electronics
Fed rate cut expectations reducing opportunity cost
Gold also strong but silver outperforming
Trade Ideas:
$SLV ETF for direct exposure
$PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp) - mining stock leverage
$AG (First Majestic Silver) - small cap leverage
CRYPTO & DIGITAL ASSETS
BITCOIN ($BTC) - Testing $94K Ahead of Fed
Current Price: ~$92,030 (varies by exchange)
24H Range: $90,000 - $94,640
Key Developments:
β Eric Trump's 'America Bitcoin' buys 416 BTC worth $38M
β Vivek Ramaswamy's 'Strive' raising $500M to buy more Bitcoin
β οΈ Standard Chartered slashes 2025 target to $100K (from $200K)
β οΈ 2026 target cut to $150K (from $300K)
Market Structure:
Spot demand driving rally (not leverage)
Coinbase premium turned positive (U.S. buyer demand returning)
ETF inflows stabilizing after outflows
Open interest flat - suggests spot accumulation
Fed Impact:
Hawkish Powell = pullback to $85K-$88K
Dovish Powell = push toward $100K
Trade Rating: 6.5/10 (Wait for Fed Clarity)
Support: $90,000
Resistance: $96,000
Strategy: Scale in on dips below $90K if Fed disappointing
Sympathy Plays:
$COIN (Coinbase) - Up 4-6% on Bitcoin strength
$MSTR (Strategy) - Michael Saylor continues accumulating
$CLSK (CleanSpark) - Bitcoin miner, +10% on BTC move
ETHEREUM ($ETH): $3,323 (+0.25% - outperforming BTC lately)
SOLANA ($SOL): $137.80 (+0.43%)
π HOT PRE-MARKET MOVERS
TOP GAINERS:
$ENVB (Enveric Biosciences) - $5.92 (+8%)
Received USPTO Notice of Allowance for EVM301 patent (mental health treatment)
Small cap biotech momentum play
Trade Rating: 5/10 (High Risk/Speculative)
$PLAB (Photronics) - $25.69 (+5%)
Q4 earnings: EPS $0.60 vs $0.45 est (33% beat)
Revenue $215.8M vs $205.2M est
Guides Q1 above consensus
Trade Rating: 7/10 (Earnings Beat + Guidance Raise)
$BRZE (Braze) - $30.65 (+5%)
Q3 EPS inline, revenue $190.84M vs $184.22M est (+25.5% YoY)
Q4 guidance above consensus
Trade Rating: 6.5/10 (Growth Story Intact)
$JMIA (Jumia) - Trending
Physical goods orders +30% YoY (Two Months Ended Nov 30)
GMV +35% YoY (+41% excluding corporate sales)
Fantastic Black Friday results
Trade Rating: 7/10 (African e-commerce growth)
Entry: Current levels
Target: +15-20% on momentum
$IONQ - Quantum Computing
Partnership with Einride uses quantum computing for logistics optimization
First real-world commercial transport data application
Trade Rating: 6/10 (Speculative, Long-term Story)
TOP LOSERS:
$CBRL (Cracker Barrel) - $27.00 (-5.5%)
Comparable store sales -4.7%
Lowers FY26 revenue and EBITDA guidance
Consumer spending weakness evident
AVOID
$GME (GameStop) - (-6% pre-market)
Missed quarterly revenue estimates
Ongoing transformation struggles
AVOID
ποΈ WHITE HOUSE & TRUMP IMPACT
Key Policy Developments (Dec 9-10):
Semiconductor Export Policy: Trump administration's approval of NVIDIA H200 sales to China represents major pivot in tech policy. 25% revenue share to U.S. government creates new precedent for strategic export management.
Fed Chair Race Heating Up:
Trump interviewing final candidates this week
Kevin Hassett front-runner (73% probability per Kalshi)
Trump: "Changes are coming to the Fed"
Trump questioned if Biden used autopen to sign Powell appointment
Market Impact: Uncertainty around 2026 policy could pressure Fed to stay accommodative longer
Tariff Commentary:
Trump: "My favorite word is tariff"
Manufacturing order slowdown ahead of Supreme Court tariff ruling
Deere ($DE) planning further job cuts in 2026, cites tariff strain on farmers
Indonesia Trade Deal: At risk of collapsing as Jakarta backtracked on commitments per Reuters
Trump Momentum Trades:
The "Trump Trade" remains focused on:
β Domestic Manufacturing: $CAT, $DE (despite headwinds)
β Defense: $LMT, $RTX, $NOC (benefit from hawkish foreign policy)
β Crypto-Friendly: Policy supporting digital assets
β Energy Infrastructure: Oil/gas producers
β οΈ China Export Risk: Tech companies with China exposure face policy volatility
π SECTOR ANALYSIS & MONEY ROTATION
BULLISH SECTORS π’
1. SEMICONDUCTORS / AI HARDWARE (Strongest)
NVIDIA China breakthrough driving sector
Memory (MU, WDC) benefiting from AI storage demand
Equipment (AMAT, LRCX) riding capex wave
Conviction: 9/10
2. ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE / UTILITIES
GE Vernova leading charge
Data center power demand insatiable
Nuclear renaissance (SMR, NNE)
Conviction: 8.5/10
3. DEFENSE & AEROSPACE
Palantir Navy contract
Geopolitical tensions supporting spending
Multi-year visibility
Conviction: 8/10
4. PRECIOUS METALS
Silver historic rally
Gold holding gains
Inflation hedge + Fed cuts
Conviction: 7.5/10
5. CRYPTO/DIGITAL ASSETS (Conditional on Fed)
Institutional buying returning
Political support strengthening
ETF flows stabilizing
Conviction: 7/10
BEARISH / DECLINING SECTORS π΄
1. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (RESTAURANTS)
Cracker Barrel warning shot
Consumer spending pulling back
Affordability crisis real despite Trump claims
Conviction: -7/10
2. RETAIL (SELECT)
Mixed results, cautious consumer
GameStop struggles continuing
Dollar stores facing headwinds
Conviction: -6/10
3. FINANCIALS (LARGE CAP BANKS)
JPM down 4.7% on expense guidance
2026 expenses near $105B shocked Street
Weighing on bank sector
Conviction: -5/10
4. CHINA-DEPENDENT EXPORTERS
Policy uncertainty high
Tariff risks
Indonesia deal collapse example
Conviction: -6/10
π° KEY CATALYST TRADES FOR TODAY & THIS WEEK
TIER 1 - HIGHEST CONVICTION βββββ
1. $GEV (GE Vernova) - Buy the Pullback
Price: $625.30 close, ~$668 after-hours
Strategy: Wait for profit-taking dip to $630-$650 zone
Target: $750 (16% upside)
Catalyst: AI power demand + dividend/buyback
Timeline: 1-3 months
Position Size: Full position
2. $NVDA (NVIDIA) - China Deal + AI Demand
Price: $184.97
Strategy: Buy $183-$186, add on dips to $180
Target: $205 (11% upside)
Catalyst: H200 China sales, Q4 earnings setup
Timeline: 2-6 weeks
Position Size: Full position (core holding)
3. Silver Exposure - Historic Breakout
Strategy: SLVETForminers(SLV ETF or miners ( SLVETForminers(PAAS, $AG)
Entry: Current levels
Target: $65-$70 silver
Catalyst: Fed cuts + inflation fears + industrial demand
Timeline: 1-6 months
Position Size: 5-10% of portfolio
TIER 2 - STRONG SETUPS ββββ
4. $PLTR (Palantir) - Growth + Defense
Price: $181.85
Strategy: Buy $178-$182, trim at $195
Target: $195 (7% upside)
Risk: Valuation extreme, size accordingly
Timeline: 2-4 weeks
Position Size: Half position (valuation risk)
5. $MU (Micron) - Pre-Earnings Setup
Price: $252.42
Strategy: Small position ahead of Dec 17 earnings
Target: $265-$275 on beat
Downside Risk: $220-$240 on miss
Catalyst: AI memory demand, Crucial brand wind-down freeing capacity
Timeline: 1 week to earnings
Position Size: Quarter position (event risk)
6. $JMIA (Jumia) - Emerging Market E-Commerce
Price: Check current (volatile)
Strategy: Buy on dips, momentum play
Target: +15-20% on Black Friday momentum
Catalyst: Strong growth numbers
Timeline: 1-3 weeks
Position Size: Speculative position
TIER 3 - WATCH LIST / CONDITIONAL βββ
7. Bitcoin ($BTC via $MSTR or $COIN) - Post-Fed
Strategy: Wait for Fed clarity
If Dovish: Buy $MSTR on dips
If Hawkish: Wait for $BTC $85K-$88K
Timeline: Depends on Fed
Position Size: Flexible
8. $AMD - NVDA Sympathy
Price: $221.87
Strategy: Buy on NVDA China policy extension
Target: $240 (+8%)
Stop: $215
Timeline: 2-4 weeks
9. $PLAB (Photronics) - Earnings Beat
Price: $25.69
Strategy: Momentum play on beat
Target: $28-$30
Timeline: 1-2 weeks
Position Size: Small/speculative
π ECONOMIC CALENDAR & EVENTS
TODAY - DECEMBER 10, 2025:
7:00 AM ET - MBA Mortgage Applications
Result: +4.8% (Prior: -1.4%)
30-Year Rate: 6.33% (Prior: 6.32%)
Impact: Slightly higher rates, but refi activity strong (+14.3%)
8:30 AM ET - Employment Cost Index (Q3)
Consensus: 0.9%
Impact: Key inflation indicator Fed watches closely
10:00 AM ET - Wholesale Inventories
2:00 PM ET - FOMC RATE DECISION π¨
Expected: 25bps cut to 4.25-4.50%
Probability: 97% (per CME FedWatch)
CRITICAL: Powell press conference immediately after
What Markets Are Watching:
Dot Plot - How many cuts priced for 2026?
Powell Tone - Hawkish or dovish messaging?
Economic Projections - Inflation and growth forecasts
January Pause? - Will Fed skip January meeting?
Market Scenarios:
SCENARIO A - "Cut and Calm" (35% probability)
25bps cut + dovish Powell + at least 2-3 cuts signaled for 2026
Market Response: Rally into year-end, Santa rally confirmed
S&P Target: 6,950-7,000
Best Trades: Tech, growth, crypto
SCENARIO B - "Hawkish Cut" (50% probability) MOST LIKELY
25bps cut BUT Powell signals pause in January/March
"Higher for longer" rhetoric, only 1-2 cuts in 2026
Market Response: Initial dip, volatility spike, grind lower into year-end
S&P Target: 6,700-6,780
Best Trades: Defensives, cash, wait-and-see
SCENARIO C - "No Cut / Hawkish Hold" (15% probability)
Fed holds rates, cites inflation concerns
Market Response: Sharp selloff, risk-off
S&P Target: 6,500-6,600
Best Trades: TLT, cash, short-term bearish
THIS WEEK:
Thursday, Dec 11:
PPI (Producer Price Index)
Initial Jobless Claims
Earnings: Oracle ($ORCL) - AI proxy test
Friday, Dec 12:
CPI (Consumer Price Index) π¨
Consumer Sentiment
NEXT WEEK:
Tuesday, Dec 17:
Micron ($MU) Earnings - AI memory demand test
Retail Sales
Wednesday, Dec 18:
Adobe ($ADBE) Earnings
Thursday, Dec 19:
FedEx ($FDX) Earnings - Economic health check
Costco (COST),Broadcom(COST), Broadcom ( COST),Broadcom(AVGO), Lululemon ($LULU) Earnings
π MASTERMIND GUIDANCE & COMMUNITY INSIGHTS
From Trading Community Chats:
"Big Daddy Charles" Picks (via MIGHTYMO):
$JMIA - "Get it before it shows on scanners"
$PLAB - "Blow out earnings"
$ENVB - "Short squeeze coming?"
$NXDR - Focus watch
Palmer's Analysis:
$MU: Citi raised PT to $300 from $275, but warns on earnings risk (Dec 17)
"Small miss β $240, big miss β $220, inline β $245, blowout β $265+"
$MRVL: Golden Cable initiative accelerating AI infrastructure
$CART: AI pricing discrimination concerns (potential headwind)
Adam Mancini ($ES Technical):
"6,847 remains key magnet, volatility lowest in recent memory"
"Bulls need 6,847 reclaim for 6,857-6,868 targets"
"6,838 fails β 6,825, 6,815 below"
Strategy: Don't overtrade until FOMC
Greg McGauley Setups:
$SGBX: Pinned under $4 resistance, above $3 support, inverse H&S pattern
$AIRE: Consensus buy, 200%+ average upside target
Prepared Remarks Focus:
Nurse staffing stocks gaining attention
Healthcare infrastructure plays
π₯ OVERALL MARKET STRATEGY
PRE-FED POSITIONING (Before 2 PM):
DO:
β Keep powder dry, reduce position sizes
β Set tight stops on existing positions
β Have shopping list ready for post-Fed dips
β Scale into high-conviction names (GEV, NVDA) on any weakness
DON'T:
β Chase pre-market gaps
β Over-leverage ahead of 2 PM
β Trade first 30 minutes if volatile
β Panic sell quality names on Fed noise
POST-FED STRATEGY:
If DOVISH (Scenario A):
Aggressively buy growth, tech, crypto
Add to NVDA, GEV, PLTR
Bitcoin $100K becomes realistic
Santa rally confirmed
If HAWKISH (Scenario B - MOST LIKELY):
Wait for dust to settle (24-48 hours)
Buy dips in quality names with 2-3% pullbacks
Focus on dividend growers (GEV)
Reduce crypto exposure
Defensive rotation: healthcare, utilities, consumer staples
If NO CUT (Scenario C):
Raise cash, reduce risk immediately
Hold high-quality dividend payers only
Wait for S&P 6,500-6,600 for re-entry
Buy TLT (bonds) on flight to safety
π± SECTOR HEATMAP - WHERE THE MONEY IS FLOWING
Today's Sector Performance (Pre-Market):
π’ ENERGY +0.62% - Utilities/power infrastructure leading
π’ TECHNOLOGY +0.26% - AI/semiconductors driving
π’ CONSUMER STAPLES +0.23% - Defensive bid emerging
π΄ MATERIALS -0.21% - Profit-taking
π΄ FINANCIALS -0.37% - Bank concerns weighing
π΄ REAL ESTATE -0.59% - Rate sensitivity
π΄ HEALTH CARE -0.97% - Broad weakness
1-Week Money Flow:
INTO: Semiconductors, AI infrastructure, precious metals, defense
OUT OF: Banks, consumer discretionary, China-exposed tech
π― TODAY'S ACTIONABLE GAME PLAN
MORNING (9:30 AM - 12:00 PM ET):
9:30-10:00 AM: Observe open, don't chase. Let algorithms settle.
10:00-11:00 AM: If quality names dip (GEV pullback to $640-650, NVDA to $182-183), scale in with small positions.
11:00 AM-2:00 PM: Tighten stops, reduce exposure to 60-70% if fully invested. Market will be "fake" before Fed.
FED DECISION (2:00-3:30 PM ET):
2:00-2:15 PM: Initial algorithmic reaction - ignore the first move
2:30-3:00 PM: Powell speaks - listen for key phrases:
Hawkish: "considerable uncertainty," "progress on inflation has stalled," "need to see more data"
Dovish: "confident in inflation trajectory," "labor market cooling," "accommodation appropriate"
3:00-3:30 PM: Digest, plan, don't trade emotionally
AFTERNOON (3:30-4:00 PM ET):
If Dovish: Add to winners, prepare for momentum continuation tomorrow
If Hawkish: Don't panic, quality names will find support. Add to shopping list.
If Surprise (either way): Step back, reassess tomorrow morning with clear head
AFTER HOURS:
Review positions, set alerts for overnight moves
Prepare for Thursday's follow-through
Check Oracle earnings (after close) for AI sentiment
π‘ FINAL THOUGHTS & RISK MANAGEMENT
What We Know:
Fed cut is 97% priced in
Real question is 2026 path
NVIDIA China deal is legitimate game-changer
GE Vernova has multi-year AI power tailwind
Silver breakout is historic, not a fluke
Consumer showing cracks (Cracker Barrel, inflation persistence)
What We Don't Know:
Powell's tone (most important variable today)
Whether NVIDIA China policy sticks (DeepSeek smuggling story is concerning)
If Santa Rally still viable under "higher for longer" Fed
True health of consumer spending into 2026
Risk Management Rules:
No position >10% of portfolio (except core holdings like NVDA)
Always use stops - especially today
Cash is a position - if confused, stay out
Trade what you see, not what you think
Fed days create fake moves - wait for confirmation
π JOIN THE COMMUNITY
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π QUICK REFERENCE WATCHLIST
STRONG BUYS (TODAY):
GEV (wait for dip), $NVDA (add on weakness), Silver/ SLV
MOMENTUM PLAYS:
$PLAB, $JMIA, $ENVB (speculative)
POST-FED OPPORTUNITIES:
PLTR (if dips to $178), $MU (pre-earnings), $AMD, $COIN/ MSTR (if dovish)
EARNINGS THIS WEEK:
$ORCL (Thu AH), $AVGO (Thu), $COST (Thu), $LULU (Thu)
AVOID:
$CBRL, $GME, $JPM, consumer discretionary
π BOTTOM LINE
Fed Day is here. Markets sitting on edge waiting for Powell. NVIDIA China deal and GE Vernova blowout provide legitimate bullish catalysts, but "higher for longer" Fed could derail Santa Rally.
Strategy: Be patient, let Fed speak, then execute with conviction. Best opportunities often come in post-Fed volatility as algos overreact and create dips in quality names.
Remember: Don't fight the Fed, but don't be afraid to buy the dips in structural winners like NVDA, GEV, and AI infrastructure plays. These trends are multi-year, not multi-day.
Trade smart. Stay disciplined. Manage risk.
DCG COMMAND CENTER
Where Data Meets Decision
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research, consult with qualified professionals, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All prices and data as of December 10, 2025 pre-market unless otherwise noted.
Market Open: 9:30 AM ET
Fed Decision: 2:00 PM ET
Powell Press Conference: ~2:30 PM ET
Stay sharp. Stay liquid. Stay ready.
π₯ππ°

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