🔥 BREAKOUT ALERT: RETAIL EARNINGS TSUNAMI HITS TOMORROW 🔥

Markets Coiled at Record Highs as Fed Cut Odds Surge to 93%

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August 18, 2025

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🔥 BREAKOUT ALERT: RETAIL EARNINGS TSUNAMI HITS TOMORROW 🔥

Markets Coiled at Record Highs as Fed Cut Odds Surge to 93%

🎯 KEY THINGS TO KNOW FOR TOMORROW'S SESSION

  1. RETAIL EARNINGS BOMBSHELL - Home Depot kicks off at 6:30am ET, followed by Target and Walmart this week

  2. FED CUT EUPHORIA - September rate cut odds at 93% after hot PPI couldn't kill the momentum

  3. CRYPTO LIQUIDATION CASCADE - Bitcoin tests $115K support as $576M in longs get wiped

  4. AI INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM - Palo Alto Networks reports after close, sympathy plays setting up

📊 S&P FUTURES ($ES) KEY LEVELS

  • RESISTANCE: 6,480 / 6,500 (psychological)

  • SUPPORT: 6,420 / 6,367 (20-day MA critical)

  • OVERNIGHT ACTION: Futures flat at 6,446 (-0.05%)

🚀 HOT TRADES TODAY

MOMENTUM LEADERS 💪

  • PSKY (Paramount Skydance) - Up 36.7% on UFC deal momentum

  • BLSH (Bullish IPO) - Crypto exchange popped 60% in first week

  • LINK (Chainlink) - Surged 14% on NYSE partnership news

  • UNH (UnitedHealth) - Added 12% on Berkshire buying spree

SYMPATHY SETUPS 🎲

  • HD → LOW - If Home Depot beats, Lowe's follows Wednesday

  • WMT → TGT - Walmart strength = Target sympathy potential

  • PANW → CRWD/S - AI security plays after Palo Alto reports

💎 KEY CATALYST TRADES FOR TOMORROW

🏗️ HOME IMPROVEMENT SECTOR SHOWDOWN

HOME DEPOT (HD) - Reports pre-market

  • SETUP: Trading near $420, 10% rally last month

  • EXPECTATION: EPS $4.70 vs $4.60 y/y, Revenue $45.3B

  • PLAY: Break above $425 targets $433 (analyst PT)

  • SYMPATHY: LOW, BLDR, BECN ready to run

🛒 RETAIL RESURRECTION TRADE

TARGET (TGT) - Wednesday pre-market

  • WARNING: Down 23% YTD, traffic declining

  • RISK/REWARD: Oversold bounce candidate

  • KEY LEVEL: Must hold $140 support

  • CONTRARIAN PLAY: Put/Call ratio extreme = potential squeeze

🤖 AI INFRASTRUCTURE EXPLOSION

PALO ALTO NETWORKS (PANW) - After hours Monday

  • CATALYST: AI security spending surge

  • SYMPATHY PLAYS:

    • CRWD (CrowdStrike) - Watch for $300 break

    • S (SentinelOne) - Coiled at $25 resistance

    • FTNT (Fortinet) - Flagging at highs

📈 BULLISH & BEARISH SENTIMENT OVERVIEW

BULLISH CATALYSTS ✅

  • Fed cut probability near certainty (93%)

  • Treasury Secretary Bessent pushing for 50bp cut

  • Retail earnings bar set low = beat potential

  • AI capex cycle accelerating (MSFT/META confirmed)

BEARISH RISKS ⚠️

  • Consumer sentiment crashed to 58.6 (worst in 4 months)

  • Tariff impacts hitting Q2 margins

  • Bitcoin breakdown dragging crypto complex

  • VIX coiled at lows = complacency risk

🔄 MONEY ROTATION ANALYSIS

SECTOR LEADERSHIP CHANGES

ADVANCING:

  • 🏦 Financials (+15% QTD) - Rate cut beneficiaries

  • ⚡ Utilities (+12% QTD) - AI data center demand

  • 🏭 Industrials (+11% QTD) - Reshoring momentum

DECLINING:

  • 🏥 Healthcare (-3.87% YTD) - Regulatory headwinds

  • 🍔 Consumer Staples (flat) - Margin compression

  • 📱 Tech (mixed) - Rotation from mega-caps

SMART MONEY FLOW

  • INTO: Small-caps (16% discount to fair value)

  • OUT OF: Mega-cap tech (taking profits)

  • WATCHING: Gold miners (40% outperformance brewing)

💰 BITCOIN & CRYPTO SENTIMENT BREAKDOWN

CRITICAL LEVELS

  • BTC: $115,440 (-1.87%) - Must defend $115K or cascade to $113K

  • ETH: $4,325 (-3.5%) - March 2024 resistance becomes support

  • ALTSEASON INDEX: Up 51% weekly - Rotation signal

CRYPTO CATALYSTS

  • JPMorgan endorses ETH for "explosive growth"

  • Japanese corporates accumulating (Metaplanet adds 775 BTC)

  • Fear & Greed at 56 (down from 71) = reset opportunity

🎯 TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES

TARIFF BENEFICIARIES

  • Domestic Manufacturing: CAT, DE, X

  • Reshoring Plays: INTC (govt stake talks), F (new $2B EV plant)

401(K) CRYPTO EXECUTIVE ORDER

  • Winners: COIN, MSTR, MARA, RIOT

  • Watch: Traditional brokers adding crypto (SCHW, MS)

📅 THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR

MONDAY 8/19:

  • Pre: Home Depot (HD)

  • Post: Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

TUESDAY 8/20:

  • Pre: Medtronic (MDT), Toll Brothers (TOL)

WEDNESDAY 8/21:

  • Pre: Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW), TJX Companies

  • Post: Analog Devices (ADI), Baidu (BIDU)

THURSDAY 8/22:

  • Pre: WALMART (WMT) - The big kahuna

  • Post: Intuit (INTU), Ross Stores (ROST)

🔮 OVERNIGHT TRADING PLAN

ASIA OPEN PLAYS

  • NIO/XPEV - China EV sympathy from TSLA strength

  • BABA - Reporting Friday, accumulate weakness

  • JD - E-commerce recovery trade

FUTURES STRATEGIES

  • /ES: Buy dips to 6,420, sell rips to 6,480

  • /NQ: Tech rotation = fade strength above 21,700

  • /RTY: Small-caps breaking out, long bias

💪 HOTTEST SECTOR SENTIMENT NOW

🏆 WINNER: AI INFRASTRUCTURE

The AI capex supercycle is real. MSFT/META confirmed massive spending continues. Data center REITs (DLR, EQIX), cooling plays (VRT), and power infrastructure (CEG, VST) are tomorrow's NVDA.

🚨 SETUP: RETAIL SYMPATHY CHAIN

HD beats → LOW runs → BLDR follows → HD suppliers (MAS, FBHS) pop. This is textbook sympathy mechanics. Position size accordingly.

📱 MASTERMIND GUIDANCE

DISCORD CHATTER:

  • "APLD data center play setting up for 30% move"

  • "Watch RGTI quantum computing on AMZN mention"

  • "BBAI is poor man's Palantir - Cramer pumping"

TWITTER MOMENTUM:

  • $LINK partnership with NYSE = DeFi institutional adoption

  • $PSKY UFC deal bigger than market realizes

  • GME/GME/ GME/AMC correlation intact for next meme wave

🎬 FINAL TRADING DIRECTIVES

CONVICTION TRADES:

RISK MANAGEMENT:

  • Fed minutes Wednesday = volatility event

  • Keep positions light into Jackson Hole

  • Bitcoin below $115K = risk-off signal

BOTTOM LINE: Tomorrow starts the retail earnings avalanche that will define consumer health and tariff impact. Home Depot is your tell - it beats, we rally. It misses, we're testing support. The Fed put is alive at 93% cut odds, but don't get complacent. This market is priced for perfection.

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