🚨 BREAKING: Trump-Xi Trade Deal Shakes Markets | Major Tech Earnings Drive Volatility

UN-Limited Limit Orders

Why pay gas for limit orders that never execute? With CoW Swap, you can set an unlimited number of limit orders – more than your wallet balance – then cancel them all at no cost to you. Try Limit Orders.

DCG COMMAND CENTER - Market Intelligence Report | Thursday, October 30, 2025

🔥 KEY THINGS TO KNOW - TRADING SESSION AHEAD

MARKET-MOVING OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS:

🇺🇸🇨🇳 TRUMP-XI BREAKTHROUGH: Historic trade deal reduces tariffs from 57% to 47%, China suspends rare earth restrictions for 1 year, and resumes U.S. soybean purchases

📈 MEGA-CAP SPLIT: Google (GOOG) surges +6.9% pre-market on blowout earnings while Meta (META) plunges -8.8% on increased AI spending guidance

🏪 CONSUMER CRUNCH: Chipotle (CMG) crashes -18% after cutting sales forecast for third consecutive quarter - major warning signal for consumer sector

⚡ PHARMA POWER: Eli Lilly (LLY) rockets +5.5% on massive GLP-1 drug revenue beat, Mounjaro and Zepbound exceed expectations

📉 FED HAWKISH STANCE: Powell signals December rate cut "not a foregone conclusion" - markets pare back rate cut expectations by 14bps

💰 S&P FUTURES & KEY LEVELS

Current Level: 6,928.75 (as of 6:30 AM ET)
Support Zones:

• 6,880 - Critical near-term support

• 6,840 - Major volume shelf

• 6,800 - Psychological level

Resistance Zones:

• 6,950 - Immediate ceiling

• 6,992 - All-time high target

• 7,000 - Round number magnet

Market Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH - Trade deal optimism offset by Big Tech spending concerns

🌍 TRUMP-XI SUMMIT: GAME-CHANGING DEVELOPMENTS

What Was Agreed:

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached agreements in their South Korea meeting to reduce U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, delay Chinese restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, and secure Chinese purchases of American soybeans.

Key Deal Points:

1. Tariff Reduction: The U.S. would reduce by 10% of existing tariffs on Chinese imports, bringing the overall tariff rate on Chinese goods to 47% (down from 57%)

2. Fentanyl Tariffs: Trump said the U.S.'s 20% fentanyl-linked tariff on Chinese goods would be halved to 10%, effective immediately

3. Rare Earth Deal: Beijing paused export controls on rare earths for one year, while Washington will similarly postpone implementation of measures announced Sept. 29

4. Agricultural Purchases: Trump said Xi authorized China to begin the purchase of massive amounts of soybeans, sorghum, and other farm products

5. Tech Export Controls: The US will suspend entity list restrictions for US technology exports for one year

Market Implications:

✅ BULLISH FOR:

• Agricultural Equipment: Deere (DE), AGCO (AGCO)

• Semiconductor Equipment: ASML, Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX)

• Rare Earth Miners: MP Materials (MP), Lynas Rare Earths

• Tech Hardware: Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Qualcomm (QCOM)

• Soybeans & Agricultural Commodities

⚠️ WATCH FOR: This is a 1-year deal requiring renegotiation - temporary relief, not permanent resolution

📈 EARNINGS RECAP - WEDNESDAY AFTER-HOURS

🟢 MAJOR WINNERS

GOOGL - Alphabet Inc.
Last Close: $268.43 → Pre-Market: $294.16 (+6.9%)

Alphabet reported third-quarter earnings that beat analyst expectations with revenue of $102.35 billion vs. $99.89 billion estimated and earnings per share of $3.10 adj. vs $2.33 estimated

Key Metrics:

• YouTube advertising revenue: $10.26 billion vs. $10.01 billion estimated

• Google Cloud revenue: $15.15 billion vs. $14.74 billion estimated, growing 34%

• The company will increase its capital expenditures to a range of $91 billion to $93 billion for the 2025 year, up from $85 billion

Trade Rating: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 9/10 - Momentum continuation likely
Entry Zone: $290-$295 on pullbacks
Target: $310 (+5.4%)
Stop: $280

LLY - Eli Lilly
Last Close: $820.10 (Oct 28) → Pre-Market: $813.53 (+5.5% from after-hours low)

Eli Lilly Q3 2025 Earnings: Adj EPS $7.02 vs. $1.18 y/y, Rev. $17.60b vs. $16.07b estimated

Blockbuster Performance:

• Zepbound rev. $3.59b vs. $3.34b estimated (+184% YoY)

• Mounjaro rev. $6.52b vs. $5.49b estimated

• Sees fy rev. $63.0b to $63.5b (raised from $60.0b to $62.0b)

• Sees fy adj EPS $23.00 to $23.70 (raised from $21.75 to $23)

Trade Rating: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 8/10 - GLP-1 dominance continues
Entry Zone: $810-$820
Target: $875 (+7.6%)
Stop: $790

Sympathy Plays: Novo Nordisk (NVO), Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), Zealand Pharma (ZEAL)

🔴 MAJOR LOSERS

META - Meta Platforms
Last Close: $752.50 (Oct 28) → Pre-Market: $688.76 (-8.5%)

Meta's third-quarter sales rose 26% year-over-year to $51.24 billion, but the company raised the low end of its total expenses for the year by $2 billion to between $116 billion to $118 billion

Why It's Tanking:

• The company raised its 2025 guidance for capital expenditures to $70 billion to $72 billion from $66 to $72 billion

• CFO Susan Li said CapEx dollar growth will be notably larger in 2026 than 2025, and total expenses will grow at a significantly faster percentage rate in 2026

• AI spending concerns spooking investors despite strong revenue growth

Trade Rating: ⚠️ 4/10 - Avoid until stabilization
Support to Watch: $670 (major breakdown if breached)
Resistance: $710-$720
Analyst Downgrades: Oppenheimer downgraded to Perform; Benchmark downgraded to Hold on "runaway capex"

CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill
Last Close: $40.26 (Oct 28) → Pre-Market: $32.90 (-18.3%)

Chipotle cut its full-year sales outlook for the third straight quarter as the company continues to deal with a traffic decline and economic pressure on its core customer, with comparable restaurant sales increasing just 0.3% while traffic fell 0.8%

Consumer Warning Signal:

• Chipotle is expecting its full-year same-store sales to shrink by a low-single digit percentage in fiscal 2025, a big change from February when the burrito chain was projecting same-store sales would grow by a low- to mid-single digit percentage

• Q3 Revenue: $3.0B vs. $3.02B expected

• Traffic fell by 0.8%, the third straight quarter of declines

Trade Rating: 🚫 2/10 - Broken momentum, avoid
Support: $30 psychological level
Sympathy Concerns: CAVA, Sweetgreen (SG), Shake Shack (SHAK), Dutch Bros (BROS)

🏦 FEDERAL RESERVE UPDATE

The Fed lowered its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting Wednesday afternoon, putting it in a range of between 3.75% to 4%

Powell's Hawkish Tone:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank may not cut interest rates again at its December meeting: "A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it"

Market Reaction:

• 2yr Treasury yield jumped +11bps, among the biggest Fed Day rises since 2002

• Markets subtracted 14bps from Fed cuts through Jun-26

• 30yr Treasury at 4.65%

Trading Implications: Higher-for-longer rates = pressure on growth stocks, benefit for financials

💎 BITCOIN & CRYPTO MARKET BREAKDOWN

BTC Price: $109,950 (down from $115K highs)
24H Change: -2.9%
Market Cap: $2.19T
Dominance: 59.3%

Technical Analysis:

• Bitcoin remains range-bound, caught between resistance at $115.2K and support near $111.3K

• A 4-hour close above $115.2K could signal a potential breakout

• Bitcoin briefly tested 112K before retracing to 110K amid profit-taking following the Fed's rate decision

Crypto Sector Performance:

• Ethereum (ETH): $3,893 (-3.0%) - Pulled back 3% after ETF-driven gains, yet institutional inflows of $2.46B signal lasting strength

• Solana (SOL): $192 (-3.2%) - Slipped 2.9%, but with ETF approvals in the US and Hong Kong, its upside remains intact if BTC clears 116K

• BNB: $1,115 (-0.7%)

• XRP: $2.55 (-3.7%)

Key Catalysts: ✅ Fed ending QT December 1st - more liquidity incoming
✅ Strong whale accumulation - Trader entered 40x long on 179.59 BTC ($19.94M)
⚠️ China trade deal reduces geopolitical premium slightly

Crypto Trade Ratings:

• BTC Long: 🔥🔥🔥 7/10 above $111K support

• ETH Long: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 8/10 on institutional inflow strength

• SOL Long: 🔥🔥🔥 7/10 ETF approval tailwind

🔥 HOT SECTOR ANALYSIS - THURSDAY TRADING

BULLISH SECTORS 📈

1. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / CLOUD COMPUTING ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Leaders: GOOGL (+6.9%), MSFT (holding), NVDA (+3%)

• Catalyst: Nvidia shares rose more than 4% Wednesday, making the tech giant the first company to cross the $5 trillion market value threshold

• Key Stat: AI mentions on earnings calls continue to grow, now > 50% of companies

Plays: NVDA, GOOGL, AMD, AVGO, PLTR, SMCI
Trade Rating: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 9/10

2. PHARMACEUTICALS / BIOTECH - GLP-1 OBESITY DRUGS ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Leader: LLY (+5.5%), NVO gaining attention

• Catalyst: Massive Mounjaro/Zepbound revenue beat showing sustained obesity drug demand

• Development: Novo Nordisk offers to buy Metsera for up to $77.75 per share, or $9B

Plays: LLY, NVO, VKTX, MTSR
Trade Rating: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 9/10

3. SEMICONDUCTORS / TECH HARDWARE ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Catalyst: Trump-Xi trade deal reduces tech export restrictions for 1 year

• Key Development: Nvidia CEO Huang says he has every confidence that the two presidents had a very good conversation

• Korea Focus: Huang: Looking forward to seeing South Korean President tomorrow, South Korea and Nvidia have many announcements to make

Plays: NVDA, TSM, ASML, QCOM, AMAT, LRCX
Trade Rating: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 8/10

4. AGRICULTURE & FARM EQUIPMENT ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Catalyst: China resuming soybean purchases

• Key Stat: China agreed to buy 12 mln metric tons of US soybeans this year

Plays: DE, AGCO, ADM, BG, MOO (ETF)
Trade Rating: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 8/10

5. RARE EARTH & CRITICAL MINERALS ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Catalyst: Trump: China has agreed to continue flow of rare earth, critical minerals, magnets, etc., openly and freely

• Supply Chain Relief: 1-year suspension of Chinese export controls

Plays: MP, LYNAS, ALB, LAC, VALE
Trade Rating: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 8/10

BEARISH SECTORS 📉

1. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY / RESTAURANTS ⭐

• Laggards: CMG (-18%), SBUX weakness

• Catalyst: Chipotle seeing consistent macroeconomic pressures with traffic declining particularly among individuals between the ages of 25 and 35 years old

• Broader Warning: Gap between CPI food away from home and CPI food at home narrowing, amid a weaker labor market

Avoid: CMG, CAVA, SG, SHAK, BROS, DPZ
Trade Rating: 🚫 2/10

2. SOCIAL MEDIA / AD-DEPENDENT TECH ⭐⭐

• Laggards: META (-8.5%)

• Catalyst: Runaway AI capex spending concerns

• Analyst Action: Meta Platforms downgraded to Hold at Benchmark on 'runaway capex'

Caution: META, SNAP, PINS, RDDT
Trade Rating: ⚠️ 4/10

3. AEROSPACE - SPECIFIC WEAKNESS ⭐⭐

• Laggard: BA (Boeing)

• Deutsche downgrades Boeing to Hold on reduced free cash estimates

Trade Rating: ⚠️ 3/10

💰 MONEY ROTATION & FLOW ANALYSIS

Where Capital is Moving:

FROM → TO

• High-PE Growth (META) → Profitable AI Plays (GOOGL)

• Consumer Discretionary → Healthcare/Pharma

• Small Caps → Mega-Cap Tech

• Bonds → Equities (on trade deal optimism)

Smart Money Indicators:

📊 Dark Pool Activity:

• Heavy volume in GOOGL, LLY, NVDA

• Unusual put buying in CMG (smart money protected)

💼 Institutional Flow:

• Ethereum institutional inflows of $2.46B signal lasting strength despite pullback

• Tech sector seeing rotation INTO cloud leaders, OUT OF social media

⚡ Options Flow:

• GOOGL call buying through $300 strike

• LLY call spreads targeting $850-$900

• SPY cautious - more puts than usual

📊 TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR (Thursday, October 30)

8:30 AM ET - 📈 GDP Q3 Advance (Consensus: 2.0%)
8:30 AM ET - 📊 Initial Jobless Claims (Consensus: 230K)
9:55 AM ET - 🎤 Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks
10:30 AM ET - ⚡ EIA Natural Gas Report
1:15 PM ET - 🎤 Fed's Lorie Logan Speaks
4:30 PM ET - 📋 Fed Balance Sheet Release

Key Focus: GDP and Jobless Claims will set tone for opening hour volatility

🎯 HIGH-CONVICTION TRADES FOR THURSDAY

TRADE #1: GOOGL Long - Cloud AI Momentum

• Entry: $290-$295 on any pullback

• Target 1: $305 (+5%)

• Target 2: $315 (+8%)

• Stop Loss: $280

• Position Size: 3-5% of portfolio

• Conviction: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 9/10

• Thesis: Cloud revenue +34%, AI demand surging, raised capex shows confidence

TRADE #2: LLY Call Spread

• Strategy: Buy $820/$860 Call Spread (30-45 DTE)

• Entry: ~$20 debit

• Max Profit: $20 per spread

• Max Risk: $20 per spread

• Conviction: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 8/10

• Thesis: GLP-1 dominance, guidance raise, sympathy momentum

TRADE #3: BTC Long Above $111K

• Entry: $111,500-$112,000

• Target 1: $115,200 (+2.9%)

• Target 2: $118,000 (+5.8%)

• Stop Loss: $110,000

• Conviction: 🔥🔥🔥 7/10

• Thesis: Fed QT ending, trade deal reduces macro risk, whale accumulation

TRADE #4: CMG Short/Put Spread (Contrarian)

• Strategy: Buy $35/$30 Put Spread (30 DTE)

• Entry: ~$2.50 debit

• Target: $4.00+ (consumer weakness continues)

• Stop: $1.50

• Conviction: 🔥🔥🔥 7/10

• Thesis: Third consecutive sales cut, consumer spending weakening, traffic declining

TRADE #5: XLK (Tech ETF) Call Spread

• Strategy: Buy $265/$270 Call Spread (14 DTE)

• Entry: ~$2.50 debit

• Target: $4.00

• Conviction: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 8/10

• Thesis: Sector rotation into tech, trade deal positive, GOOGL/NVDA leading

🎓 MASTERMIND INSIGHTS & COMMUNITY WISDOM

Top Trader Callouts:

@Palmer (@BankTheTrade):

• Identified META weakness 3 hours before open: "down 64, guides Q4 revs in-line"

• Early GOOGL bull call: "up 20 beats on revs, Google Cloud revenue grew 34% yr/yr"

• "It's 3 1/2 hours before the open. There's money to be had...where at!"

@Mike Zaccardi, CFA (@MikeZaccardi):

• Highlighted Trump/Xi meeting summary and Fed hawkish posture as key drivers

• Noted CMG -19% drawdown as major warning for consumer sector

@ICT (@I_Am_The_ICT):

• Emphasized importance of probability assessment and calculated risk management over impulsive trading

• "When someone struggles to determine probabilities... this only highlights immaturity as an analyst"

@Kobeissi Letter:

• Breaking down Trump-Xi deal: "100% tariff on China is NO LONGER going live. Tariff rate down from 57% to 47%. This round of the US-China trade war is over."

Community Sentiment: Mixed optimism - trade deal bullish offset by Big Tech spending concerns and consumer weakness signals

🌟 TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES

Direct Beneficiaries of Trump-Xi Deal:

1. Energy/LNG Sector:

   • US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Japan will be weaning off Russian LNG

   • Plays: CHK, EQT, LNG, TELL

2. Agricultural Sector:

   • Soybeans, corn, wheat exporters

   • Plays: ADM, BG, MOO

3. Rare Earth/Defense:

   • Supply chain security improved

   • Plays: MP, LMT, RTX, GD

4. Tech Hardware:

   • Export restrictions eased for 1 year

   • Plays: AAPL, NVDA, QCOM, AMAT

Overall Trump Trade Sentiment: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 8/10 - Deal-making momentum positive for risk assets

🚀 PRE-MARKET MOVERS (Updated 6:30 AM ET)

TOP GAINERS:

TOP LOSERS:

📈 OVERALL MARKET STRATEGY FOR THURSDAY

Market Theme: "Trade Deal Optimism Battles Big Tech Spending Fears"

Opening Bell Bias: Mixed with upside lean
 Intraday Range: Expect 0.5-0.8% SPX volatility
 Key Levels: 6,880 support / 6,950 resistance

Strategic Gameplan:

9:30-10:30 AM: Watch for GDP/Claims reaction. Strong data + trade deal = bullish open. Front-run GOOGL, LLY momentum.

10:30 AM-2:00 PM: Mid-day consolidation likely. Use any GOOGL dip toward $290 as entry. Avoid CMG bounce attempts.

2:00-4:00 PM: Afternoon session could see rotation back into beaten-down names IF major indices hold gains. Watch for short covering in META if it stabilizes above $690.

Key Risk: If GDP misses or jobless claims spike, trade deal optimism could fade quickly. Have stop losses ready.

🔍 SECTOR HEATMAP - EXPECTED PERFORMANCE

STRONGEST 🟢🟢🟢🟢🟢

1. Cloud Computing / AI Infrastructure

2. Pharmaceuticals (GLP-1 theme)

3. Semiconductors / Tech Hardware

4. Agriculture & Farm Equipment

5. Industrial Commodities (Rare Earth)

MODERATE 🟡🟡🟡

1. Financials (Higher rates mixed blessing)

2. Energy (Oil/Gas)

3. Utilities

4. Telecom

WEAKEST 🔴🔴🔴

1. Consumer Discretionary / Restaurants

2. Social Media / Ad Tech

3. Retail

4. Commercial Real Estate

🎯 BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT (BLUF)

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW IN 30 SECONDS:

✅ TRADE: Trump-Xi deal is REAL and material - tariffs down 10%, rare earths flowing, ag purchases resuming
📊 EARNINGS: GOOGL crushing it (+7%), META getting punished on capex fears (-9%), CMG warning on consumer (-18%)
💊 PHARMA: LLY GLP-1 drugs exceeding expectations - obesity theme remains white-hot
📉 FED: Powell hawkish - December cut unlikely, rates staying higher longer
💰 CRYPTO: BTC consolidating $110-115K, needs breakout above $115.2K for next leg up
🎯 TRADE: Focus on GOOGL, LLY, NVDA today. Avoid CMG, META, consumer discretionary

🚀 PRE-MARKET TRADING FOCUS

IMMEDIATE OPPORTUNITIES (First Hour):

1. GOOGL long on any dip under $295

2. LLY calls targeting $850-875

3. NVDA momentum continuation play

4. BTC long above $111.5K

5. CMG short on any bounce to $35

AVOID:

• Catching META falling knife (wait for $670 support test)

• Any consumer discretionary "bargain hunting"

• Small-cap speculation until direction clear

📚 EDUCATIONAL NOTE: Why Big Tech Spending Matters

The market's negative reaction to META's increased capex guidance highlights a critical shift in sentiment. While AI spending was celebrated 6 months ago, investors now want to see returns on investment, not just investment. This creates a two-tier market:

TIER 1: Companies showing AI revenue growth (GOOGL with Cloud +34%) = REWARDED
TIER 2: Companies increasing AI spending without clear monetization path = PUNISHED

This distinction will drive sector rotation through year-end.

💎 WANT TO LEVEL UP YOUR TRADING?

Join AITradingSkool.com - Where our community of active traders share real-time insights, backtested strategies, and systematic approaches to market opportunities. No hype, no false promises - just clear-headed analysis from traders who execute daily.

What You Get:

• Live trading floor with active commentary

• Daily pre-market briefings (like this one)

• Options flow analysis

• Technical setup notifications

• Risk management frameworks

Visit aitradingskool.com to learn more

📊 FINAL CHECKLIST FOR THURSDAY TRADING

✅ GDP & Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM - Set alerts
✅ GOOGL watching $290 entry, $305 target
✅ LLY watching $810 entry, $875 target
✅ BTC watching $111K support hold
✅ CMG watching for short entry on bounces
✅ META avoid until stabilization
✅ Fed speakers 9:55 AM and 1:15 PM - Note times
✅ Stop losses set on all positions
✅ Position sizing appropriate for volatility
✅ Trade deal follow-up news on radar

⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. The content herein represents market analysis and opinion, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The prices and targets mentioned are based on pre-market data and may differ materially at market open.

Market Opens in: 1 hour 30 minutues
Last Updated: October 30, 2025 - 7:50 AM ET

DCG COMMAND CENTER | Trading the News. Mastering the Markets.

📱 STAY CONNECTED

Follow our live trading updates throughout the day:

• Real-time trade alerts

• Intraday level updates

• Breaking news reactions

• End-of-day recaps

Tomorrow's Newsletter: Friday Pre-Market Intelligence drops at 7:45 AM ET

Trade smart. Trade informed. Trade with DCG Command Center.

Subscribe to our live trading room and take the trades with us.