🚨 BREAKING: Trump-China Trade Truce Extension + PPI Data Drops Today - DCG Weekly Gameplan 🚀

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⚡ KEY THINGS TO KNOW FOR THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 2026

MARKET SNAPSHOT (06:38 AM ET)

• 📈 S&P 500 Futures: 6,981.00 (+0.29%) - Testing key 7,011 breakout level

• 🟢 Crypto Rally: Bitcoin +1.58% at $68,050 | Ethereum +2.20% at $1,994

• 📊 Critical Data: PPI Report 08:30 AM ET - Inflation watch intensifies

• 🇨🇳 Trade Catalyst: Trump-Xi summit rumored to extend trade truce through 2027

• 🏛️ Political: House votes to override Trump's Canada tariffs | Senate to probe Fed's Powell

MARKET SENTIMENT: Cautiously Bullish - Bulls pull even with bears, rotation into risk-on assets accelerating

🔥 BREAKING NEWS OVERNIGHT (Post 3 AM CST)

🎯 MAJOR CATALYST - TRUMP-CHINA TRADE DÉTENTE

Rating: 9/10 | Impact: Extremely Bullish for Risk Assets

Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) - 4:22 AM:

Trade Implications:

• Tech stocks poised for breakout if confirmed

• China exposure plays (BABA, JD, BIDU) could see 10-15% upside

• Manufacturing/Industrial sector bullish on extended certainty

• Semiconductor names (NVDA, AMD, INTC) major beneficiaries

Action Items:

• Monitor tech sector for confirmation momentum

• Position in China ADRs on any morning dip

• Watch semiconductor names for breakout above resistance

🏦 WHITE HOUSE & POLITICAL IMPACT

Senate Banking Committee to Probe Fed Chair Powell

Source: Semafor | Treasury Sec Bessent confirms Senate investigation

Market Impact: Moderate Bearish for bonds, Neutral for equities

• Fed independence concerns could increase volatility

• Rate cut expectations may be delayed

• Dollar strength potential if Fed seen as more hawkish

House Votes to Override Trump's Canada Tariffs

Source: Investing.com, 4:55 AM

Market Impact: Minor Bullish

• Reduced trade friction benefits cross-border commerce

• Canadian exposure stocks (Auto sector, Energy) positive

• Risk-on sentiment boost

Trump Administration Shelves Tech Security Measures vs China

Source: TradeTheNews.com, 5:03 AM

Market Impact: Bullish for Tech

• China Telecom U.S. ban delayed

• Data center equipment restrictions postponed

• Olive branch ahead of April Trump-Xi summit

• Winners: $CSCO, $JNPR, $ORCL (data center equipment suppliers)

📊 TODAY'S ECONOMIC DATA - CRITICAL INFLATION WATCH

🎯 08:30 AM ET - Producer Price Index (PPI) Report

What to Watch:

• Core PPI MoM: Consensus estimate not available, watching for <0.3% (disinflationary)

• PPI YoY: Looking for continued moderation

• Jobless Claims: Expected 214K (low=bullish for Fed patience)

Trading Strategy:

• If PPI comes in hot (>0.4% MoM): Expect rate cut delay fears, tech sells off

• If PPI comes in cool (<0.2% MoM): Rally mode, long tech/growth

• In-line: Grind higher, stick to plan

Options Play:

• Straddle SPY if you're uncertain

• Long calls on QQQ if betting on cool inflation

🎯 STOCK CATALYST TRADES FOR TODAY

🚀 TIER 1: HIGH CONVICTION BULLISH

1. FASTLY (FSLY) - EARNINGS BEAT + GUIDANCE RAISE

Rating: 9/10 | Momentum Play

Catalyst: Upgraded to Outperform at William Blair after Q4 beat

• Q4 EPS: $0.12 vs $0.06 consensus (+100% beat)

• Revenue: $172.61M vs $161.36M consensus (+6.9% beat)

• FY26 Guidance: Above consensus on both EPS and revenue

Pre-market: $9.31 (+3.70% / +$0.33)

Entry Zone: $9.10-$9.40 Target 1: $10.25 (+10%) Target 2: $11.50 (+23%) Stop Loss: $8.75 (-4%)

Sympathy Plays:

• NET (Cloudflare): Similar CDN/edge computing space

• AKAM (Akamai): Content delivery peer

2. SHOPIFY (SHOP) - UPGRADE MOMENTUM

Rating: 8/10 | Swing Trade

Catalyst: Upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho (4:23 AM)

Technical Setup:

• Breaking above 50-day MA

• E-commerce resurgence theme gaining traction

• Strong relative strength vs QQQ

Entry Zone: Watch for opening price, buy on 1st hour dip Target: +8-12% over next 5 sessions Risk Management: Tight stops below pre-market low

Sympathy Plays:

• BIGC (BigCommerce): E-commerce platform peer

• WIX: Website building momentum

3. META (META) - $10B INDIANA DATA CENTER

Rating: 8/10 | AI Infrastructure Play

Catalyst: Announces $10B data center investment in Indiana (5:36 AM)

Bullish Thesis:

• Massive AI infrastructure buildout continues

• Capex commitment signals confidence in AI monetization

• Geographic expansion reduces concentration risk

Trade Setup:

• Long META on any morning weakness

• Target: New ATH breakout

• Pairs trade: Long META / Short GOOGL (Google lagging on AI spend)

Sympathy Plays:

• NVDA: GPU supplier to META's data centers

• SMCI: Server infrastructure play

⚠️ TIER 2: WATCH LIST - NEED CONFIRMATION

4. ROBINHOOD (HOOD) - POST-EARNINGS DIP

Rating: 6/10 | Counter-trend Bounce

Catalyst: Truist cuts target after "frustrating" earnings (5:37 AM)

Strategy: Wait for capitulation, look for bottom

• Dip-buy zone: If drops 5-8% intraday

• Catalyst needed: Crypto rally to boost trading volumes

• Risk: Downgrade overhang could last days

5. SANOFI (SNY) - CEO DEPARTURE

Rating: 5/10 | Risk Event

Catalyst: Board "decides not to renew" CEO Paul Hudson's mandate

• Downgraded to Neutral at BofA (5:38 AM)

Analysis:

• Leadership uncertainty = volatility

• Big pharma typically stable through transitions

• Wait for dust to settle before entry

Sympathy/Pairs:

• Long MRCK, PFE vs Short SNY (relative value)

💎 CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET BREAKDOWN

Bitcoin & Crypto Sentiment: BULLISH CONTINUATION 🟢

Market Overview:

• Total Market Cap: $2.401T (+1.78% 24h)

• BTC Dominance: 58.5% (consolidating)

• Fear & Greed Index: 32/100 (Extreme Fear = Contrarian Buy)

• Altcoin Season Index: Neutral

Top Movers:

🎯 Crypto Trade Ideas:

ETHEREUM (ETH) - Primary Long

Entry: $1,950-$2,000 Target 1: $2,150 (+7.8%) Target 2: $2,300 (+15.4%) Stop: $1,875 (-6%)

Thesis:

• Breaking above $2,000 psychological resistance

• Outperforming BTC (ETH/BTC ratio improving)

• Shanghai upgrade anticipation building

BNB - Momentum Continuation

Entry: $610-$620 (on pullback) Target: $680 (+10%) Stop: $590 (-5%)

Thesis:

• Leading major cap altcoin

• Binance ecosystem expansion

• Strong 7-day trend

🔍 SECTOR ROTATION ANALYSIS

📈 ADVANCING SECTORS (Bullish Momentum):

1. Technology (+1.01%) - NVDA leading at +1.01%

2. Energy (+2.61%) - Commodity price strength

3. Consumer Cyclical (+1.43%) - Consumer resilience

4. Materials (+1.34%) - Industrial demand

📉 DECLINING SECTORS (Bearish Pressure):

1. Financials (-1.51%) - Rate cut delay fears

2. Communication Services (-0.71%) - Profit-taking after run

3. Consumer Discretionary (-0.48%) - Weakness in retail

4. Real Estate (-0.09%) - Rate sensitive underperformer

💰 MONEY ROTATION ALERT:

Rotation OUT OF: Financials, Real Estate (rate-sensitive) Rotation INTO: Technology, Energy, Industrials (growth/commodity)

What This Means:

• Growth > Value in near-term

• Commodity exposure favorable

• Avoid bond proxies (REITs, Utilities)

📈 S&P 500 FUTURES KEY LEVELS ($ES)

Technical Analysis:

Current Price: 6,981.00

BULLISH SCENARIO:

• Breakout Level: 7,011.50 (H4 Long Breakout)

• Target 1: 7,040 (psychological resistance)

• Target 2: 7,080 (measured move)

BEARISH SCENARIO:

• Support 1: 6,960 (prior session low)

• Support 2: 6,920 (14-session short breakout level per chart)

• Critical Support: 6,880 (breakdown = -2% correction)

Trading Plan:

• Above 7,011: Go long with momentum, targeting 7,080

• 6,960-7,010: Range-bound, scalp only

• Below 6,960: Reduce exposure, wait for 6,920 retest

🎯 OPTIONS FLOW & DARK POOL ACTIVITY

Notable Prints (from social sentiment):

• Large Tech Call Buying: QQQ weekly calls seeing unusual volume

• SPY Iron Condors: Market makers positioning for range-bound action around 694-698

• META Calls: Positioning for data center news momentum

Options Strategy for Today:

If Bullish on PPI Data:

• Long QQQ Feb 14 $618 Calls (ITM, delta 0.65)

• Bull Put Spread SPY: Sell $690P / Buy $685P (collect premium)

If Expecting Volatility:

• Long SPY Straddle: Buy $694 Call + $694 Put (earnings season vol play)

• Calendar Spread: Sell this week, buy next week (theta play)

🎰 DAY TRADING HOT ZONES (9:30-11:00 AM ET)

Momentum Scalps:

1. FSLY: Ride the upgrade momentum, watch for 9:45 AM breakout

2. QQQ: If PPI data cool, long breakout above $615

3. Crypto stocks (COIN, MARA, RIOT): Bitcoin strength = proxy rally

Fade Candidates:

1. SNY: CEO news = volatility, fade any panic spike

2. HOOD: If gaps down >3%, look for bounce play

🌍 TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES & POLITICAL EDGE

🎯 China Trade Thaw Beneficiaries:

Direct China Exposure:

• BABA (Alibaba): Entry $95-$100, Target $115 (+15%)

• JD.com: Follow BABA momentum

• BIDU: Search + AI play with China upside

U.S. Exporters to China:

• CAT (Caterpillar): Industrial equipment demand

• BA (Boeing): Aircraft orders could accelerate

• QCOM (Qualcomm): Smartphone chip sales to China

📱 Tech Security Measures Delayed:

Winners from Policy Shift:

• CSCO (Cisco): Network equipment sales

• ORCL (Oracle): Data center infrastructure

• JNPR (Juniper): Routing equipment

Strategy: Small positions now, add on April summit confirmation

📰 MASTERMIND & SOCIAL INSIGHTS SUMMARY

Key Takeaways from Trading Community:

Mike Zaccardi, CFA (@MikeZaccardi):

Interpretation: Sentiment equilibrium = breakout imminent in either direction. PPI data will be the catalyst.

Palmer (@BankTheTrade):

Validation: Community nailed the FSLY trade - follow strong convictions from proven traders.

The Inner Circle Trader (@I_Am_The_ICT):

Take: Smart money accumulating on dips, distribution on rips. Follow the flow.

🚦 OVERALL MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 12, 2026

Morning Game Plan (Pre-Market to 11 AM):

Phase 1: Pre-Market (Now - 9:30 AM)

• Monitor PPI data at 08:30 AM

• Position size: 30% of daily allocation before data

• Watch FSLY, SHOP for continuation

Phase 2: Market Open (9:30-10:00 AM)

• If PPI Cool: Aggressive long QQQ, Tech leaders

• If PPI Hot: Defensive, reduce exposure, watch for capitulation

• First 30 minutes = most volatile, respect the tape

Phase 3: Mid-Morning (10:00 AM - 12:00 PM)

• Sector rotation becomes clear

• Add to winners, cut losers fast

• Look for lunch-time consolidation setups

Phase 4: Afternoon (12:00 PM - 4:00 PM)

• Manage risk, trail stops

• Scale out of day trades by 3:30 PM

• Hold swing positions through close if conviction high

📊 BULLISH vs BEARISH SECTORS - FINAL VERDICT

🟢 MOST BULLISH SECTORS:

1. Technology - AI spend, China trade thaw, FSLY momentum

2. Energy - Commodity strength, geopolitical stability premium

3. Industrials - Infrastructure spend, China trade optimism

4. Consumer Cyclical - Economic resilience narrative

Top Tickers: NVDA, AVGO, META, FSLY, XLE (Energy ETF)

🔴 MOST BEARISH SECTORS:

1. Financials - Fed probe, rate cut delays, bond volatility

2. Real Estate - Rising rate expectations

3. Consumer Discretionary - Weak retail sentiment

4. Communication Services - Profit-taking rotation

Avoid/Short: Regional banks (KRE), REITs (VNQ), Weak retail (BBBY-type)

🔥 HOTTEST SECTOR SENTIMENT RIGHT NOW: TECHNOLOGY 🔥

Why Tech is Leading:

1. China trade détente removes tariff overhang

2. FSLY earnings show SaaS/Cloud demand resilient

3. META $10B data center signals AI arms race acceleration

4. Semiconductor relief from delayed China restrictions

How to Play:

• Core Holdings: QQQ, NVDA, META, AVGO

• Momentum: FSLY, SHOP, NET

• Options: QQQ weekly calls on PPI relief

• Avoid: Legacy tech (IBM, HPQ) - no AI exposure

📅 UPCOMING CATALYSTS - REST OF WEEK & NEXT WEEK

This Week:

• Thursday (Today): PPI data, FSLY momentum follow-through

• Friday: Potential position squaring before weekend, watch for news

Next Week - MAJOR EVENTS:

• Feb 13: U.S. CPI Release (even bigger than PPI!)

• Feb 20: Potential Supreme Court IEEPA tariffs decision window

• Feb 24: Trump's State of the Union address

• Feb 25: 🔥 NVIDIA EARNINGS 🔥 - Biggest tech event of Q1

Conference Season:

• CAGNY (Consumer Analyst Group of NY) - Food/beverage insights

• Citi Global Industrial Tech & Mobility - Manufacturing outlook

💼 TRADE HIGHLIGHTS BY ASSET CLASS

📈 STOCKS:

Best Setups: FSLY, META, SHOP, QQQ Risk Level: Moderate (PPI data key) Position Size: 60% of normal until data clears

📊 OPTIONS:

Strategy: Directional post-PPI, Straddles pre-data Best Plays: QQQ calls (bullish), SPY iron condors (range) IV Crush Risk: None today (no mega-cap earnings)

📉 FUTURES:

ES (S&P 500): Long above 7,011, range 6,960-7,010 NQ (Nasdaq): Following QQQ, breakout above 21,500 Risk: Overnight gaps if geopolitical news breaks

₿ CRYPTO:

Top Picks: ETH (breakout), BNB (momentum) Avoid: Overextended meme coins, low-volume altcoins Strategy: 20% allocation, tight stops, ride winners

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📌 FINAL SUMMARY - YOUR ACTION PLAN FOR THURSDAY

⚡ PRE-DATA (Now - 08:30 AM):

• ✅ Light positioning: FSLY, SHOP watchlist ready

• ✅ Cash heavy (60%+) until PPI clarity

• ✅ Set alerts: ES 7,011 breakout, BTC $69,000

🎯 POST-DATA (08:30 AM - 10:00 AM):

• ✅ If Bullish (PPI cool): Aggressive QQQ/Tech longs, target +1.5% day

• ✅ If Bearish (PPI hot): Defensive, scalp only, revisit at 6,960 ES

• ✅ Execute with conviction, manage risk ruthlessly

🔥 SWING POSITIONS (Hold Multi-Day):

• ✅ FSLY: Upgrade momentum, 5-day target $11.50

• ✅ ETH: Crypto breakout play, target $2,150

• ✅ QQQ: Tech sector beta, add on weakness

⛔ AVOID TODAY:

• ❌ Financials (XLF, BAC, JPM) - headwinds mounting

• ❌ REITs - rate sensitivity

• ❌ Low-volume penny stocks - focus on liquidity

🎯 CONVICTION METER

Today's Top 3 Highest-Conviction Trades:

1. FSLY Long - 9/10 conviction

   • Earnings beat, guidance raise, upgrade

   • Entry: $9.10-$9.40 | Target: $11.50 (+23%)

2. QQQ Long (Post-PPI) - 8/10 conviction

   • If inflation data cooperates

   • Entry: $615+ breakout | Target: $625 (+1.6%)

3. ETH Long - 8/10 conviction

   • Crypto market strength, technical breakout

   • Entry: $1,950-$2,000 | Target: $2,150 (+7.8%)

🚀 DCG COMMAND CENTER CLOSING THOUGHTS

Thursday, February 12, 2026, sets up as a critical inflection point for markets. The Trump-China trade détente rumors provide a significant bullish tailwind for risk assets, but today's PPI data will determine if we break out or fade.

Key Themes:

• 🇨🇳 Geopolitical relief = Tech sector tailwind

• 📊 Inflation data = Rate path clarity

• 💻 AI infrastructure = Long-term secular trend (META, NVDA)

• 🏦 Fed independence = Political risk rising

Our Base Case: Mild PPI print allows markets to grind higher toward 7,040-7,080 on ES. Tech leadership continues. Pullbacks are buyable until proven otherwise.

Risk Management: Stay disciplined. Don't FOMO into rips. Best trades come to patient traders. If something feels off, step aside - there's always tomorrow.

📊 Market Conditions: BULLISH (Conditional on PPI)

🎯 Trading Difficulty: MODERATE

💰 Opportunity Score: 8/10

Trade smart. Trade safe. Let's make Thursday a winner. 📈

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management.

DCG COMMAND CENTER | Where Traders Become Champions 📧 Newsletter | 🌐 aitradingskool.com

Published: Thursday, February 12, 2026 | 06:38 AM ET

#StockMarket #DayTrading #TradingStrategy #SPX #Bitcoin #Ethereum #TechStocks #OptionsTrading #TrumpTrades #MarketNews #PPI #Inflation #FSLY #META #NVDA #CryptoTrading #ForexTrading #FuturesTrading

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