📈 BREAKING: FED CUTS RATES AS AI STOCK RALLY MEETS REALITY CHECK - ORACLE CRATERS 11%, LILLY SOARS ON OBESITY BREAKTHROUGH

🔥 Major Catalysts Collide: Rate Cuts, Earnings Shakeout & Sector Rotation Create Thursday Trading Opportunities | December 11, 2025 | DCG COMMAND CENTER TRADING NEWSLETTER

December 11, 2025

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⚡ KEY THINGS TO KNOW FOR THURSDAY'S SESSION

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT:

  • 📉 S&P 500 Futures: 6,868 (-0.34%) - Oracle earnings drag weighing on tech

  • 🟢 Bitcoin: $90,262 (-2.63% 24h) - Fed hangover continues, testing key support

  • 💰 Fed delivered 3rd rate cut of 2025, but "hawkish cut" dampens sentiment

  • 🚨 Oracle (ORCL) -11% premarket after revenue miss reignites AI spending fears

  • 🎯 Eli Lilly (LLY) +2.4% on blockbuster obesity drug trial results

  • ⚙️ Ciena (CIEN) reports TODAY before open - AI networking play

MARKET THEME: Post-Fed reality check meets earnings season volatility. Rotation from mega-cap tech into healthcare, industrials, and select AI infrastructure plays gaining momentum.

🎯 BREAKING CATALYSTS & IMMEDIATE TRADING OPPORTUNITIES

🏥 HEALTHCARE SECTOR EXPLOSION

ELI LILLY (LLY) ✅ STRONG BUY

  • Current Price: $993.64 (verified Dec 10 close)

  • Premarket: +$31 (+3.1%) to ~$1,025

  • Catalyst: Phase 3 obesity drug trial CRUSHES expectations

    • Retatrutide delivered avg 71.2 lbs weight loss (28.7% body weight)

    • First successful Phase 3 for triple agonist (GIP, GLP-1, glucagon)

    • Significant osteoarthritis pain relief included

  • Entry Zone: $990-$1,010 (consolidation zone)

  • Targets:

    • T1: $1,050 (+5.7%)

    • T2: $1,111 (52-week high retest, +11.8%)

  • Stop Loss: Below $970 (prior support)

  • Trade Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 9.5/10

  • Options Play: Jan 2026 $1,000 calls

SYMPATHY PLAYS:

  • NVO (Novo Nordisk): Watch for competitive response

  • BMY (Bristol-Myers): Diabetes/obesity pipeline beneficiary

  • TDOC (Teladoc): Telehealth obesity treatment platform

💻 TECH SECTOR SHAKEOUT - OPPORTUNITIES IN CHAOS

ORACLE (ORCL) ⚠️ AVOID/SHORT OPPORTUNITY

  • Last Close: $223.01

  • Premarket: $196-$198 (-11% to -12%)

  • Why It's Tanking:

    • Q2 revenue: $16.06B vs $16.21B expected (MISS)

    • Capex EXPLODES to $50B guidance (up from $35B)

    • Free cash flow: -$10B vs -$5.2B expected

    • AI spending concerns resurface across sector

  • Technical Damage: Breaking below $200 psychological support

  • Contagion Risk: Pulling down NVDA, AMD, AVGO in sympathy

  • Trade: Wait for $180-$185 support test before considering bounce

SYMPATHY PAIN:

  • NVIDIA (NVDA): -1% premarket on Oracle contagion

  • AMD: -1% on AI capex concerns

  • CoreWeave: -2.9% as cloud AI gets scrutinized

📡 AI INFRASTRUCTURE - THE REAL WINNERS

CIENA (CIEN) ✅ HIGH CONVICTION PLAY

  • Last Close: $214.35 (verified Dec 10)

  • Expected Report: TODAY before open (8:30 AM ET)

  • Consensus: EPS $0.67, Revenue $1.29B

  • Why It's Hot:

    • AI data center networking bottleneck solution

    • 68% cloud infrastructure revenue growth expected

    • Optical networking for hyperscalers (GOOGL, META, MSFT)

    • 153% gain YTD - momentum continuing

  • Entry Strategy:

    • On earnings beat: Buy breakout above $220

    • On any dip: Accumulate $210-$215

  • Targets:

    • T1: $235 (+9.6%)

    • T2: $250 (+16.5%)

  • Stop: Below $205

  • Trade Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 9.0/10

ROKU (ROKU) ✅ UPGRADE CATALYST

  • Last Close: ~$105

  • Premarket: +$3.30 (+3.1%)

  • Catalyst: Jefferies upgrade to BUY, PT $115

  • Netflix/WBD Streaming News: Content partnership benefits

  • Entry: $103-$106 current zone

  • Targets:

    • T1: $115 (+9.5%)

    • T2: $125 (+19%)

  • Trade Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 8.5/10

🎮 TONIGHT'S MEGA-CAP EARNINGS

BROADCOM (AVGO) 🎯 WATCH & WAIT

  • Current Price: $404-$412 range

  • Market Cap: $1.95 TRILLION

  • Earnings: TONIGHT after close

  • Consensus: EPS $1.87, Revenue $17.5B (+24.5% YoY)

  • Catalyst Watch:

    • Microsoft custom chip deal rumors

    • AI networking demand explosion

    • $100B data center sales target

  • Price Targets: Analysts range $400-$440

  • Strategy: Wait for earnings reaction

    • Beat scenario: Enter on pullback to $415-$420

    • Miss scenario: Wait for $385-$395 support

  • Trade Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 8.0/10 (after earnings clarity)

🌍 GLOBAL MACRO & POLICY IMPACTS

FEDERAL RESERVE IMPACT

Powell's "Hawkish Cut" Creates Confusion:

  • ✅ Delivered 25 bps rate cut as expected (3rd of 2025)

  • ⚠️ 2026 guidance: Only 2 cuts vs 4 expected

  • 📊 Market reaction: Initial rally faded

  • 💵 Dollar weakening: DXY at 2-month lows (99.05)

  • 📉 10-Year Treasury: 4.2% (holding below 4.5% danger zone)

Trading Impact:

  • Rate-sensitive sectors (REITs, Utilities) underperforming

  • Growth stocks face valuation pressure

  • Rotation into value, healthcare, industrials accelerating

CHINA POLICY SHIFT 🇨🇳

  • Catalyst: Central Economic Work Conference signals

  • Actions: Rate cuts & reserve requirement cuts coming

  • **"Moderately loose" monetary stance announced

  • Impact: Could support commodity demand, emerging markets

  • Watch: $FXI, $KWEB for China exposure plays

WHITE HOUSE & POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

  • No major market-moving policy releases Dec 11

  • State Department: Diplomatic activity in India, Sri Lanka

  • Trump administration media relations dominating headlines

  • Trade Impact: Neutral for Thursday's session

💰 SECTOR ROTATION & MONEY FLOW ANALYSIS

🟢 BULLISH SECTORS (STRONGEST MOMENTUM)

1. HEALTHCARE 📊 +1.45%

  • Leaders: LLY, NVO, BMY

  • Catalyst: Obesity drug breakthroughs

  • Flow: Institutional accumulation evident

  • Plays: LLY calls, healthcare ETF $XLV

2. INDUSTRIALS 🏗️ +1.83%

  • Story: Infrastructure spending, AI buildouts

  • Leaders: Power equipment, construction

  • Trade: $XLI sector ETF

3. MATERIALS ⛏️ +1.96%

  • Driver: China stimulus hopes

  • Metals: Silver >$62/oz (new highs)

  • Plays: Precious metals miners

4. AI NETWORKING 🌐

  • Pure Plays: CIEN, ANET

  • Why: Data center bandwidth bottleneck solution

  • Risk: Oracle overhang creates buying opportunity

🔴 BEARISH/DECLINING SECTORS

1. MEGA-CAP TECH 📉 -0.8% to -1.2%

  • Why: Oracle earnings contagion, valuation concerns

  • Hit List: ORCL -11%, XLK -1.2%, QQQ -0.8%

  • Strategy: Selective buying on 3-5% dips only

2. SEMICONDUCTORS 💻 -1.4%

  • Driver: AI capex worry spreads

  • SMH ETF: Under pressure

  • Opportunity: Quality names like NVDA on -2% days

3. ENERGY 🛢️ -0.05%

  • WTI Crude: $57.77 (5-year lows)

  • Natural Gas: Weakening toward $4

  • Trade: Energy sector headwinds continue

🪙 CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET BREAKDOWN

BITCOIN & CRYPTO SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUS ⚠️

BITCOIN (BTC)

  • Current: $90,262 (verified)

  • 24h Change: -2.63%

  • 7-Day: -1.16%

  • Fed Impact: "Hawkish cut" dampened crypto enthusiasm

  • Key Levels:

    • Support: $88,000-$90,000 (critical)

    • Resistance: $96,000 (breakout needed)

    • Major support: $80,400 (must hold)

TECHNICAL SETUP:

  • Rejected at $94,000 after brief rally

  • Volume declining - weak hands shaking out

  • Whale ratio elevated (0.53) = distribution continues

  • Long-term holders still selling

CATALYSTS WATCH:

  • Twenty One Capital (XXI) NYSE debut: 43,500 BTC holdings

  • SpaceX on-chain movements: $95M transfer

  • Bank adoption: PNC Bank launches BTC trading

ALTCOIN MOVERS:

  • ETH: $3,191 (-0.16%)

  • SOL: $130.94 (-1.32%)

  • XRP: $2.06 (-2.42%)

  • Meme Sector: Cooling off from recent frenzy

CRYPTO TRADING STRATEGY:

  • Bulls: Wait for $96K breakout confirmation

  • Bears: Watch $88K breakdown

  • Neutral: Accumulate on dips below $90K for swing trades

  • DeFi Focus: Infrastructure tokens showing resilience

📊 S&P 500 FUTURES TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

KEY LEVELS FOR ES FUTURES

CURRENT: 6,868 (-23.75, -0.34%)

MAJOR RESISTANCE:

  • 🔴 6,920 - Recent highs, strong rejection zone

  • 🔴 6,905 - December high (must break for ATH run)

  • 🔴 6,890 - Intraday resistance

MAJOR SUPPORT:

  • 🟢 6,850 - Critical psychological support

  • 🟢 6,820 - 50-period MA support

  • 🟢 6,790-6,812 - Strong institutional buying zone

  • 🟢 6,617 - December low (major floor)

TECHNICAL PATTERN:

  • Inside day forming after Fed volatility

  • Volume declining = consolidation mode

  • RSI: 55 (neutral, room to move either way)

  • MACD: Slight bearish cross forming

TRADING STRATEGY:

  • Above 6,880: Resume bullish bias, target 6,920+

  • Below 6,850: Caution, test 6,820 support likely

  • Range: 6,850-6,890 most probable Thursday action

🎯 TODAY'S HIGH-CONVICTION TRADES

IMMEDIATE ACTIONABLE SETUPS

TRADE #1: ELI LILLY (LLY)

  • Direction: LONG

  • Entry: $990-$1,010 (any pullback from premarket)

  • Position Size: 3-5% portfolio

  • Targets: $1,050 (T1), $1,111 (T2)

  • Stop: $970

  • Risk/Reward: 1:3.5

  • Timeframe: 2-4 weeks

  • Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 9.5/10

TRADE #2: CIENA (CIEN)

  • Direction: LONG (on earnings beat)

  • Entry: Breakout above $220 OR dip to $210-$215

  • Position Size: 2-3% portfolio

  • Targets: $235 (T1), $250 (T2)

  • Stop: $205

  • Risk/Reward: 1:2.5

  • Timeframe: 1-3 weeks

  • Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 9.0/10

TRADE #3: ROKU (ROKU)

  • Direction: LONG

  • Entry: $103-$106 current zone

  • Position Size: 2% portfolio

  • Targets: $115 (T1), $125 (T2)

  • Stop: $98

  • Risk/Reward: 1:2.8

  • Timeframe: 2-4 weeks

  • Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 8.5/10

TRADE #4: BITCOIN (BTC)

  • Direction: Swing Long (aggressive only)

  • Entry: $88,000-$90,000 zone

  • Position Size: 1-2% portfolio (high risk)

  • Targets: $96,000 (T1), $100,000 (T2)

  • Stop: $85,000 (tight)

  • Risk/Reward: 1:2

  • Timeframe: 1-2 weeks

  • Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐ 6.5/10 (wait for setup)

TRADE #5: SPY CALLS (Post-consolidation)

  • Direction: LONG (when ES breaks 6,890)

  • Strike: ATM or slightly OTM

  • Expiration: 2-3 weeks out

  • Entry: On volume breakout above 6,890

  • Target: 6,920-6,950 zone

  • Stop: Close below 6,850

  • Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 7.5/10

⚠️ STOCKS TO AVOID / SHORT OPPORTUNITIES

ORACLE (ORCL) - AVOID

  • Broken technicals, more downside to $180-$185

  • Wait for stabilization before re-entry

TESLA (TSLA) - OVEREXTENDED

  • No fresh catalysts, valuation stretched

  • Watch for profit-taking

SMALL-CAP TECH - SELECTIVE

  • Many names overextended

  • Quality over quantity approach

📈 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - THURSDAY DEC 11

8:30 AM ET:

  • 📊 Jobless Claims (watch for labor market health)

  • 📦 Int'l Trade in Goods & Services

10:00 AM ET:

  • 🏢 Wholesale Inventories

  • 📋 Quarterly Services Survey

10:30 AM ET:

  • ⛽ EIA Natural Gas Report

11:00 AM ET:

  • 💰 Treasury Announcements (3M, 6M Bills, 5Yr TIPS)

🎓 MASTERMIND INSIGHTS & SOCIAL SENTIMENT

KEY TRADING COMMUNITY OBSERVATIONS:

From Twitter/X Feed Analysis:

  • Mike Zaccardi: "10-year Treasury holding below 4.5% = equity support continues"

  • Palmer: Multiple small-cap biotech plays showing momentum (AXIL, PL, CRBP)

  • Jungle Rock: Tech momentum slowing, but AI infrastructure thriving

  • ZoZoTrader: Focus on obesity drug sector sympathy plays

Dominant Themes:

  1. Healthcare rotation accelerating (obesity drugs central)

  2. AI infrastructure > AI compute narrative shift

  3. Mega-cap tech taking breather (healthy correction)

  4. Commodity strength (silver, materials) on China hopes

  5. Fed policy creating short-term uncertainty but long-term support

Risk Management Reminders:

  • Don't chase extended moves (ORCL crash = cautionary tale)

  • Position size appropriately (2-5% max per trade)

  • Use stops religiously (volatility elevated)

  • Let winners run, cut losers quick

🚀 TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES & POLITICAL EDGE

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION POLICY WATCH:

  • No major market-moving announcements Dec 11

  • Media relations dominating news cycle

  • Infrastructure spending plans remain supportive for:

    • Construction stocks

    • Industrial equipment

    • Power generation (AI data centers)

SECTORS WITH TRUMP POLICY TAILWINDS:

  • 🏗️ Infrastructure: Bipartisan support continuing

  • 🛡️ Defense: Budget increases expected

  • ⚡ Energy: Traditional & nuclear both favored

  • 🏥 Healthcare: Market-driven solutions focus

💼 OVERALL MARKET STRATEGY & POSITIONING

THURSDAY GAME PLAN:

MORNING (Pre-Market to 10 AM):

  1. Watch CIENA earnings reaction (8:30 AM)

  2. Monitor jobless claims data (8:30 AM)

  3. Assess overnight sentiment on ORCL damage

  4. LLY entry opportunity on any early weakness

MID-DAY (10 AM - 2 PM):

  1. ES futures: Watch 6,850 support hold

  2. Sector rotation: Healthcare leadership continues?

  3. Economic data digestion

  4. Position for AVGO earnings (after close)

AFTERNOON (2 PM - Close):

  1. Final positioning for overnight holds

  2. AVGO earnings setup (calls/puts or wait?)

  3. Trim any extended positions

  4. Prepare Friday follow-through strategy

🎯 TRADE HIGHLIGHTS BY ASSET CLASS

STOCKS:

✅ Bullish: LLY, CIEN, ROKU, healthcare sector ⚠️ Cautious: ORCL, mega-cap tech, semiconductors 🎯 Watch: AVGO earnings tonight

OPTIONS:

  • LLY Jan $1,000 calls (obesity momentum)

  • CIEN Dec $220 calls (earnings play)

  • SPY calls on ES breakout >6,890

  • AVGO straddle (earnings volatility)

FUTURES:

  • ES: Range-bound 6,850-6,890 most likely

  • NQ: Tech-heavy, watch for underperformance

  • /CL (Oil): Weak, avoid for now

  • /GC (Gold): Consolidating, watch for break

CRYPTO:

  • BTC: Wait for $88K-$90K entry or $96K breakout

  • ETH: Following BTC, no independent strength

  • ALTs: Selective momentum plays only

📊 ADVANCED MARKET INDICATORS

MARKET BREADTH:

  • NYSE Advance/Decline: Neutral (slightly negative)

  • New Highs/New Lows: Contracting range

  • VIX: 16.02 (+1.59%) - Modest fear increase

SENTIMENT GAUGES:

  • Put/Call Ratio: Elevated (defensive positioning)

  • Fear & Greed Index: 39 (Fear zone)

  • Crypto Fear & Greed: 26 (Extreme Fear)

VOLUME ANALYSIS:

  • Above average on Oracle selling

  • Below average on indices (indecision)

  • Healthcare volume surging (LLY leading)

INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS:

  • Rotation OUT of mega-cap tech

  • Rotation INTO healthcare, industrials

  • Bond buying (yields falling) = risk-off tone

🔮 FRIDAY PREVIEW & WEEK-AHEAD OUTLOOK

FRIDAY CATALYSTS:

  • AVGO earnings digest

  • Weekly options expiration positioning

  • Continuation or reversal of Thursday trends

  • Final positioning before weekend

NEXT WEEK WATCH LIST:

  • Monday 12/16: More earnings, sector follow-through

  • Tuesday-Wednesday: FOMC rhetoric digestion continues

  • Thursday 12/19: Major options expiration week

  • Santa Rally?: Historically bullish period begins

🎯 FINAL CONVICTION SUMMARY

HIGHEST PROBABILITY TRADES TODAY:

🏆 TOP TIER (9.0-10.0 Rating):

  1. LLY Long - Obesity breakthrough, institutional accumulation

  2. CIEN Long - AI infrastructure bottleneck solution, earnings catalyst

💎 STRONG (8.0-8.9 Rating): 3. ROKU Long - Upgrade catalyst, streaming momentum 4. SPY Calls - On breakout above 6,890 with volume

⚡ AGGRESSIVE (7.0-7.9 Rating): 5. AVGO Calls/Straddle - Post-earnings volatility play

RISK MANAGEMENT RULES:

  • ✅ Max 5% position size on any single trade

  • ✅ Always use stop losses (no exceptions)

  • ✅ Take partial profits at T1 targets

  • ✅ Let winners run with trailing stops

  • ✅ Cut losers ruthlessly at stop levels

📢 COMMUNITY CALL TO ACTION

Join the DCG COMMAND CENTER Winning Community!

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Visit aitradingskool.com for:

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Our traders don't chase pumps - we identify setups BEFORE they move.

⚖️ DISCLAIMERS & RISK WARNINGS

IMPORTANT TRADING DISCLOSURES:

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT financial advice. All trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Key Risk Factors:

  • Volatility can result in rapid losses exceeding your position size

  • Options can expire worthless (100% loss)

  • Leverage amplifies both gains AND losses

  • Market conditions can change instantly based on unforeseen events

Due Diligence Required:

  • Verify all prices and data independently before trading

  • Assess your own risk tolerance and financial situation

  • Consult a licensed financial advisor for personalized guidance

  • Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose

Data Sources: All stock prices verified via Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, and official company reports as of market close December 10, 2025 or premarket December 11, 2025. Market data delayed 15 minutes unless otherwise noted.

Remember:

  • 📊 Markets reward patience and discipline

  • 🎯 Quality setups beat quantity every time

  • 🧠 Psychology is 80% of trading success

  • 💰 Protect capital first, profits second

  • 🚀 The best trades feel uncomfortable at entry

🎬 CLOSING THOUGHTS

Thursday December 11, 2025 presents a classic post-Fed, mid-earnings-season setup with clear winners and losers emerging. The Oracle crash reminds us that even "AI darlings" aren't immune to reality checks, while Eli Lilly shows us that genuine scientific breakthroughs still move markets massively.

The playbook is straightforward:

  1. Focus on proven catalysts (LLY obesity data, CIEN AI networking)

  2. Avoid the carnage (ORCL and sympathy sellers)

  3. Wait for quality setups (AVGO after earnings clarity)

  4. Respect the macro (Fed hawkishness = near-term chop)

  5. Position for rotation (Healthcare IN, mega-cap tech OUT)

Most importantly, don't let FOMO or panic dictate your decisions. The best trades come to patient hunters who wait for their pitch.

See you in the markets,
The DCG Command Center Team 📈💰

"Trade What You See, Not What You Think"

Newsletter Published: Thursday, December 11, 2025 - 6:00 AM EST
Next Edition: Friday, December 12, 2025
Markets Never Sleep. Neither Should Your Edge. 🚀

#Trading #StockMarket #Options #Crypto #Bitcoin #EliLilly #Oracle #Broadcom #Ciena #Healthcare #AI #MacroEconomics #FederalReserve #TechnicalAnalysis #DayTrading #SwingTrading #DCGCommandCenter

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