🚀 MARKET RECOVERY RALLY: Crypto & Equities Surge Into Presidents' Day Weekend

📊 Market Close Summary - Friday, February 13, 2026:

• SPY: $685.61 (Last Close: $681.27)

• Bitcoin: $69,178 (recovering from $65,000 lows)

• COIN: $163.54 (+17.15% Friday bounce)

• Fear & Greed Index: 34/100 (Fear)

• Crypto Fear & Greed: 9/100 (Extreme Fear)

🔥 KEY THINGS TO KNOW MONDAY

✅ Inflation Cooler Than Expected - January CPI came in at 2.4% YoY vs 2.5% expected, giving markets relief 

✅ Supreme Court Tariff Decision - SCOTUS scheduled February 20 opinion day (28.8% chance of Trump tariff approval) 

✅ Bitcoin Reclaims $69K - Crypto markets showing signs of bottoming after 30% monthly decline

✅ Sector Rotation Accelerating - Utilities, Consumer Staples, Energy leading; Tech lagging 

✅ Venezuela Sanctions Eased - US authorizes CVX, BP, ENI, Shell to resume oil operations 

✅ Anthropic IPO Incoming - AI company preparing to go public as soon as 2026 

✅ Truth Social Crypto ETFs Filed - Trump Media files for BTC/ETH and CRO yield ETFs

💰 TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES & WHITE HOUSE IMPACT

🔷 Venezuela Energy Play - MAJOR CATALYST

Trump: "We have a very good relationship with the President of Venezuela. We have our big oil companies going in; they're going to be taking out the oil and selling the oil for a lot of money."

BULLISH TICKERS:

• CVX (Chevron) - Last Close: $~155

  • Direct Venezuela operations authorization

  • Target: $165 (+6.5%)

  • Entry Zone: $152-$156

• BP - Authorized operator

• ENI.MI - Italian oil major greenlit

• Shell - Full authorization granted

🔷 Steel & Aluminum - Trump Trade Adviser Navarro

Navarro: "There's NO basis in fact the administration is planning to reduce steel and aluminum tariffs. Steel and aluminum are SACRED to the Trump administration."

BULLISH MOMENTUM:

• X (US Steel) 

• NUE (Nucor)

• STLD (Steel Dynamics)

🔷 Trump Administration Highlights

• Inflation Praise: "Inflation numbers are way down, we have it back on track"

• Crime Numbers: "Best crime numbers in 125 years"

• Law Enforcement: Strong support for ICE, Border Patrol, Police

• Iran Negotiations: "If we have a deal, they'll be leaving soon"

• Greenland: "We're negotiating right now for Greenland"

🎯 HOT CATALYST TRADES FOR MONDAY

⚡ CRYPTO SECTOR - EXTREME FEAR = OPPORTUNITY

COIN - Coinbase

Friday High: $164.95

• Catalyst: Massive Q4 free cash flow ($3.07B), buyback program

• Sentiment: Bounced +17% Friday despite earnings miss

• Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ STRONG BUY on dips

Analysis: Market looking past weak Q4 results to focus on $3.07B FCF (172% margin). Extreme oversold conditions (13-day losing streak ended). Institutional buyers stepping in. White House crypto support with Patrick Witt saying "trillions of dollars in institutional capital on the sidelines."

BTC - Bitcoin

Friday Recovery to $69,000

• Support: $64,000-$65,000 (tested multiple times)

• Resistance: $67,000-$68,000

• Analysis: Down 30% from $97K highs, showing signs of capitulation bottom. K33 Research sees "strong case bitcoin has bottomed." JPMorgan bullish for rest of 2026.

ETH - Ethereum

• Down 1% but holding above $1,900

• Long Investor thesis: "When ETH hits ATH, will you regret not adding below 200 WMA?"

Truth Social Crypto ETFs

• Bitcoin & Ether ETF - Filed with SEC

• Cronos Yield Maximizer ETF - CRO staking rewards

• Crypto.com handling custody

• SEC approval required

🔥 AI & TECH SECTOR

MSFT - Microsoft ⚠️

Concerns: FTC ramping up probe on cloud and AI practices Price Action: Down after regulatory scrutiny Rating: ⭐⭐ HOLD - Wait for clarity

NVDA - Nvidia

Flow: Most bullish options flow Friday alongside MU Sentiment: Semiconductor demand remains strong Analysis: Despite market weakness, AI infrastructure build continues

MU - Micron

Flow: Massive bull flows, 5000 April $420 puts at $51.25 sold Catalyst: CFO addressing "inaccurate reporting" Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Memory sector strength

CRWD - CrowdStrike

News: HSBC upgrade to Buy Thesis: "Attractive valuation, accelerating AI-driven growth, leadership in high-growth cybersecurity" Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ BUY on upgrade

💊 GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS - BUBBLE WATCH

GLD - Gold ETF

Current: $~5,019/oz (+2% Friday)

• Capital Economics Warning: "Signs of a gold bubble are developing in China"

• Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ CAUTION - Parabolic move

NEM - Newmont Mining

Big Bull Flows: 5000 August $155 calls bought at $10 Price Action: +7% surge Friday Entry: $145-$150 Target: $165 Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ STRONG BUY

🛒 CONSUMER DEFENSIVE - SECTOR ROTATION LEADERS

COST - Costco

Unique Pattern: "Market goes down $COST goes up, Market goes up $COST goes up" YTD: Massive outperformance Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CORE HOLDING

XLP - Consumer Staples ETF

Move: +17% in last 26 trading days Analysis: Nothing like this outside April 2020 and dot-com bust Breakout: Clean break to new highs Composition: WMT, PG, KO, PEP leading Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Momentum play

⚡ UTILITIES - 40% AT ALL-TIME HIGHS

Sector Performance: +16.84% (Leading all sectors)

• Real Estate: +1.69%

• Health Care: +1.56%

• Materials: +1.51%

Key Names:

• NEE - NextEra Energy

• DUK - Duke Energy

• SO - Southern Company

Analysis: 40% of Dow Utilities at ATH. Clean energy + defensive rotation driving sector.

📉 BEARISH SECTORS & WARNINGS

💻 BIG TECH - UNDER PRESSURE

AMZN - Amazon ⚠️⚠️

Last Close: $~180 (estimated)

• Longest losing streak since 2006 (9 days straight)

• Down 18%, -$470B market cap erased

• Concerns: $200B 2026 capex for AI/data centers

• Ameriprise: "Negative cash flow at this scale is a major red flag"

• Rating: ⭐ AVOID - Wait for stabilization

META, GOOGL, MSFT ⚠️

All facing similar AI spending concerns. Big tech's $650B AI spend creating uncertainty.

🚗 DETROIT AUTOMAKERS - EV CRISIS

Massive Losses: $50B+ in EV write-downs

• GM - Scaled-back EV production

• F (Ford) - Pivoting to single low-cost EV pickup by 2027

• STLA (Stellantis) - Offloaded battery stake

Catalyst: Q4 EV sales fell 30% after $7,500 federal tax credit expiration China Domination: BYD delivered 1M+ vehicles internationally, surpassing TSLA

EXCEPTION:

RIVN - Rivian

Sideways consolidation - Wait for breakout above $17.78 for re-entry Rating: ⭐⭐ WAIT for setup

📊 S&P 500 FUTURES KEY LEVELS (ES)

Current Trading Range: 6850-6893

Support Levels:

• 6850 - Immediate support

• 6822-6824 - Failed breakdown zone

• 6808 - Friday low (swept and recovered)

Resistance Levels:

• 6893 - Current magnet (hit Friday)

• 6907 - Next target

• 6926 - Secondary target

• 6935-6938 - Bonus targets

• 6954 - Big magnet

Analysis (Adam Mancini): Textbook "Failed Breakdown" Friday. Swept 6822-24 shelf to 6808, then reversed. All targets hit: 6850 ✓, 6860 ✓, 6893 ✓.

Monday Game Plan: Hold above 6850 = bullish. Break 6893 = run to 6907-6926.

🎲 OPTIONS FLOW HIGHLIGHTS

Biggest Bull Flows Friday:

1. $MU & $NVDA - Most bullish flow by far

2. $NEM - 5000 August $155 calls @ $10 (gold miner strength)

3. $HOOD - 4000 April $65 puts SOLD TO OPEN @ $3.55 (bullish)

Notable Activity:

• VIX Futures: Staying soft at lows -5.2% (supports weekend hold)

• Notional Options Volume: 10-day avg $530B (highest in 2 years)

• Risk Appetite: At record levels despite market weakness

📰 BREAKING NEWS & CATALYSTS

🏛️ POLITICAL & REGULATORY

✅ Supreme Court Tariff Decision

• February 20 first opinion day

• February 24-25 additional opinion days

• Kalshi traders: 28.8% chance court rules in favor of Trump tariffs

• Market Impact: High uncertainty heading into ruling

✅ Voter ID Act - 1 Senator Away

• 3 GOP holdouts: Murkowski, Collins, McConnell

• Fetterman (D) supports voter ID

• Senate vote imminent

✅ DHS Terminates Yemen TPS

• Immigration enforcement continuing

🤖 AI & TECHNOLOGY

OpenAI Drone Contract

• Tapped for voice control tech in US drone swarm contest

• Military AI applications expanding

Anthropic IPO Preparation

• Former Microsoft/GM exec Chris Liddell joins board

• Liddell served in first Trump Administration

• Preparing to go public as soon as 2026

• Major AI liquidity event incoming

📈 EARNINGS & CORPORATE

Coinbase (COIN):

• Missed revenue ($1.78B vs $1.83B est) and EPS ($0.66 vs $0.96 est)

• BUT: $3.07B free cash flow shocked market (172% margin)

• Buyback program signals management confidence

• Stock +17% on "bad" earnings (low expectations)

Timken: $0.35 quarterly dividend (1.3% yield)

Barclays on Medtronic: Sees strong heart device growth

🌍 GLOBAL & MACRO

⚡ Energy Markets:

• Oil: Heading for weekly loss despite Iran/OPEC+ outlooks

• Venezuela: US eases sanctions, major oil companies resuming operations

🇪🇺 Europe:

• Germany: Mulls debt brake exemption to boost raw material fund

• Secretary Rubio: Skips Ukraine meeting with European leaders in Munich

☮️ Geopolitics:

• Russia-Ukraine: Trump envoy Witkoff says "Zelenskiy's going to have to get moving"

• Iran: Trump says talks will be successful, warns "bad day for Iran" if unsuccessful

• Russia: Dmitriev to hold discussions with US in Geneva

💹 MARKET SENTIMENT & POSITIONING

Fear & Greed Indicators:

• Stocks: 34/100 (Fear) - Opportunity zone

• Crypto: 9/100 (Extreme Fear) - Historic buying opportunity

Market Internals:

• All sectors green Friday - SMIDs leading

• Transports ($TRAN): +1.7% Friday snap back

• Average US stock: +1.4%

• Net Market Sentiment: -7.7% bearish early, reversed to bullish close

Positioning:

• Still below 20 and 50-day moving averages

• Only covered half of Thursday's down candle

• Utilities leading = Defensive rotation

🎯 MONDAY TRADING PLAN

BULLISH BIAS SECTORS:

1. Energy - Venezuela catalyst (CVX, BP, ENI, Shell)

2. Metals - Steel/aluminum tariff support (X, NUE, STLD) + Gold (NEM)

3. Utilities - Defensive rotation continuation (XLU)

4. Consumer Staples - Momentum (XLP, COST)

5. Crypto - Extreme oversold bounce (COIN, MSTR, RIOT, MARA)

6. Cybersecurity - CRWD upgrade momentum

BEARISH/AVOID:

1. Big Tech - AI spending concerns (AMZN 9-day losing streak)

2. EV Makers - Demand destruction (GM, F, STLA)

3. Regulatory Risk - MSFT (FTC probe), BABA (Pentagon list)

📅 WEEK AHEAD ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday 2/16: Presidents' Day - MARKETS OPEN Tuesday 2/17: Retail Sales, Industrial Production Wednesday 2/18: FOMC Minutes, Housing Starts Thursday 2/19: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, Existing Home Sales Friday 2/20: Supreme Court Opinion Day (tariff decision possible)

CPI Takeaway: Cooler-than-expected inflation (2.4% vs 2.5% est) gives Fed flexibility. Goldman estimates 0.40% Core PCE for January.

🧠 MASTERMIND GUIDANCE & TRADE TIPS

Key Patterns to Watch:

1. Failed Breakdown Pattern (Friday's Winner)

• Watch for sweeps below support levels

• Reversal = high-probability long setup

• ES_F perfect example: swept 6808, reversed to 6893

2. Sideways Consolidation Exit Rule

• If trending stock goes sideways = SELL (becomes "crapshoot")

• Re-buy only on breakout above consolidation range

• Example: RIVN - wait for break above $17.78

3. TQQQ Tactical Entry

• Trending up but don't buy unless back above $49.68

• Wait for proper entry setup, don't chase

4. Friday Recovery Pattern

• "Dump us Thursday, pump us Friday" becoming routine

• Position accordingly for weekend holds

Risk Management:

• VIX soft = supportive of weekend holds

• 3-day weekend = Consider profit-taking into close

• Tariff ruling risk (Feb 20) = Hedge accordingly

• Crypto extreme fear = Size positions carefully despite opportunity

🎨 SEASONALITY & MARKET PATTERNS

February 2026 Pattern:

• Historically: Mid-February can be volatile pre-FOMC

• Current: Failed breakdown suggests bounce continuation

• Presidents' Day Weekend: Historically quiet, but geopolitical risk elevated

Bullish Factors:

• Cooler CPI print

• Failed breakdown Friday

• Extreme bearish sentiment (contrarian indicator)

• Sector rotation broadening (healthy)

Bearish Factors:

• Still below key moving averages

• Big Tech spending concerns

• Supreme Court tariff uncertainty

• EV sector collapse

💡 FINAL TAKE: OVERALL MARKET STRATEGY

🎯 Monday Game Plan:

PRIMARY SCENARIO (60% probability): Market continues Friday's recovery rally into shortened week. ES targets 6907-6926. Sector rotation persists with Utilities/Staples/Energy leading. Crypto continues bounce from extreme oversold.

TRADE:

• LONG: CVX, NEM, COST, XLP, XLU, COIN on dips

• SHORT/AVOID: AMZN, EV sector

• WAIT: Big Tech until spending concerns clarify

RISK MANAGEMENT:

• Take profits into Friday ahead of 3-day weekend

• Supreme Court ruling (2/20) could cause volatility

• Size smaller in crypto despite opportunity (extreme volatility)

🚨 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH MONDAY:

SPY:

• Support: $681 (hold = bullish)

• Resistance: $685, then $690

• Pivot: $682.50

Bitcoin:

• Support: $65,000 (must hold)

• Resistance: $67,000 breakout = $70K+ targets

• Pivot: $66,000

COIN:

• Support: $160

• Resistance: $170, then $180

• Pivot: $165

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⚠️ DISCLAIMER

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Markets are volatile - do your own research before investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade at your own risk.

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