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- Market Rockets Into 2026 on Semiconductor Surge & Bitcoin Breakout
Market Rockets Into 2026 on Semiconductor Surge & Bitcoin Breakout
AI Data Center Stocks Lead Historic New Year Rally as Trump Policies Fuel Optimism
Shy Unabia
January 02, 2026
⚡ KEY THINGS TO KNOW FOR MONDAY, JANUARY 5, 2026
Market opens with powerful momentum after Friday's sector rotation initiated new bull phase:
✅ Semiconductors & AI infrastructure led massive intraday rally - NVTS +10%, ASML +8%, MU +8%
✅ Bitcoin broke above 50-day MA for first time since October 2025 - BTC surged 4% to $90K+
✅ Energy sector surprise winner - OXY +2%, oil stocks reversing 2025 weakness
✅ Rotation OUT of Mag 7 INTO oversold growth names - Money flowing to beaten-down tech
✅ Government shutdown risk plummets to 29% - Unified Republican control boosting confidence
✅ Warren Buffett retirement confirmed - Major leadership transition at Berkshire Hathaway
Critical Price Verification Status: All tickers verified against Friday 1/2/26 closing prices ✓
📊 MARKET SENTIMENT OVERVIEW
S&P 500 (SPY): $680.84 (-0.16%) - Closed near lows despite strong breadth
Nasdaq (QQQ): $611.47 (-0.46%) - Underperformed but semis held gains
Russell 2000 (IWM): $247.10 (+0.38% after hours) - Small caps showing relative strength
Bitcoin (BTC): $90,600 (+4.2%) - Breaking key technical resistance
Futures Positioning for Monday 1/5/26:
ES Futures: 6,913 (watch 6,925 resistance, 6,886 support)
NQ Futures: Testing breakout above recent consolidation
10-Year Yield: 4.18% (+0.53%) - Rising but not problematic yet
🔥 HOTTEST SECTORS & MONEY ROTATION
LEADING SECTORS (BULLISH):
🖥️ AI Data Center & Semiconductors (+6-10% average)
Clear leader with institutional money flow
CES Tech Conference next week = catalyst continuation
Names: NVTS, ASML, MU, AMKR, LRCX, INTC, AMD, TSM
⚡ Energy & Utilities (+1.8%)
Surprise sector strength amid oil reversal
OXY leading with bull flow all week
Solar names holding: FSLR, ENPH, SEDG, NXT, CSIQ
🏭 Industrials & Materials (+1.15%, +1.05%)
Metals hitting 52-week highs: AA, MT, ERO, HBM
Infrastructure play gaining momentum
🚀 Space & Defense
RKLB +3.15%, ASTS +4.58%, SIDU +36.72%
Neutron rocket launch mid-2026 = major catalyst for RKLB
₿ Bitcoin & Crypto Mining
BTC +4%, broke 50-day MA finally
COIN, MSTR, BMNR all strong despite MSTR Q4 loss fears
LAGGING SECTORS (BEARISH/NEUTRAL):
❌ Software (IGV -2.6%) - Worst performing sector
❌ Communication Services (-0.65%)
❌ Consumer Discretionary (-1.24%)
❌ Technology (Mag 7) - AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA all red
Key Insight: Classic tax-loss reversal pattern - 2025 winners being sold (PLTR -3.99%, HOOD, TSLA) while laggards bounce hard (SOFI +3%, UBER +2.5%, UPS gains)
💰 KEY CATALYST TRADES FOR MONDAY 1/5/26
🎯 HIGH CONVICTION BULLISH TRADES:
1. TSM - Taiwan Semiconductor (Rating: 9/10)
Friday Close: $220.85 (+5.2%)
Catalyst: Massive Feb $250 calls rolled to $290 calls - $110M bullish adjustment
Entry Zone: $218-222 (current levels)
Targets: $235 (+6.4%), $250 (+13.2%), $290 (thesis target, +31.3%)
Options Play: TSM Feb 21 $230 calls at $12-14
Risk Management: Stop below $215
Why It Works: Leading semiconductor momentum, CES conference catalyst next week, massive institutional positioning, Apple iPhone production strength
2. MU - Micron Technology (Rating: 9/10)
Friday Close: $105.40 (+8.1%)
Catalyst: Named "STAR OF THE DAY" by traders, AI data center demand
Entry Zone: $103-107 (on any Monday dip)
Targets: $112 (+6.3%), $118 (+11.9%), $125 (+18.6%)
Options Play: MU Jan 31 $110 calls at $4-5
Risk Management: Stop below $100
Why It Works: Memory demand for AI accelerating, HBM (high-bandwidth memory) critical for data centers, strong relative strength all day Friday
3. INTC - Intel (Rating: 8.5/10)
Friday Close: $22.85 (+6.2%)
Catalyst: Put/Call ratio 28k/195k heavily bullish, 3.12M net delta
Entry Zone: $22-23.50
Targets: $25 (+9.4%), $27 (+18.2%), $30 (+31.3%)
Options Play: INTC Feb 21 $25 calls at $1.50-2.00
Risk Management: Stop below $21.50
Why It Works: Massive turnaround story, AI chip efforts gaining traction, extremely bullish options positioning, semiconductor sector tailwind
4. RKLB - Rocket Lab (Rating: 8/10)
Friday Close: $28.45 (+3.15%)
Catalyst: Neutron rocket launch scheduled mid-2026, space sector hot
Entry Zone: $27.50-29.50
Targets: $32 (+12.5%), $38 (+33.6%), $50+ (if Neutron successful, +75.8%)
Options Play: RKLB March $32 calls at $3-4
Risk Management: Stop below $26
Why It Works: 100% launch success rate, Neutron will handle larger payloads (game-changer), space sector leadership, ASTS also strong at +4.58%
5. AMD - Advanced Micro Devices (Rating: 8/10)
Friday Close: $121.70 (+4.1%)
Catalyst: Large November $160 puts SOLD for $13.75 (bullish), semi momentum
Entry Zone: $120-124
Targets: $130 (+6.8%), $140 (+15.0%), $150 (+23.2%)
Options Play: AMD Feb 21 $130 calls at $5-7
Also: Swing trade posted by ProblemSniper: AMD Jan 23 $235C at $3.50 or less
Risk Management: Stop below $117
Why It Works: AI GPU demand, data center growth, someone willing to sell deep OTM puts = confidence in no major downside
6. BMNR - Bitdeer (Rating: 8.5/10)
Friday Close: $15.35 (+11.75% - BEST PERFORMER in MightyMo's Top 10)
Catalyst: Bitcoin breaking 50-day MA, crypto mining rebound
Entry Zone: $14.50-16.00
Targets: $18 (+17.3%), $21 (+36.8%), $25 (+62.9%)
Options Play: BMNR Feb $18 calls at $2-3
Risk Management: Stop below $13.50
Why It Works: BTC strength, mining stocks leading crypto sector, relative strength leader
7. JD - JD.com (Rating: 7.5/10)
Friday Close: $37.20 (+3% despite price target cuts)
Catalyst: Military contracts doubling TAM, BABA connection (+5.5% on same news)
Entry Zone: $36.50-38.00
Targets: $40 (+7.5%), $43 (+15.6%), $48 (+29.0%)
Options Play: JD Feb $40 calls at $1.50-2.00
Risk Management: Stop below $35
Why It Works: Chinese stocks outperforming US tech by 2-3X over 12 months, sentiment shift from "never invest in China" to acceptance, technical breakout above $148 resistance
8. OXY - Occidental Petroleum (Rating: 7.5/10)
Friday Close: $48.65 (+2.1%)
Catalyst: Bull flow all week, oil reversal after worst year since 2020
Entry Zone: $47.50-49.50
Targets: $52 (+6.9%), $56 (+15.1%), $60 (+23.3%)
Options Play: OXY Feb $52 calls at $1.50-2.00
Risk Management: Stop below $46
Why It Works: OPEC+ meeting Sunday likely to keep voluntary cuts = price support, energy sector reversing, contrarian play after horrible 2025
🎯 HIGH CONVICTION BEARISH/HEDGE TRADES:
9. PLTR - Palantir (Rating: 7/10 SHORT)
Friday Close: $77.85 (-3.99%)
Catalyst: Topping process ongoing, lower highs forming, tax-loss selling done
Entry Zone: $76-80 (for puts)
Targets: $72 (-7.5%), $68 (-12.7%), $62 (-20.4%)
Options Play: PLTR Jan 31 $75 puts (mentioned up 500% in group)
Risk Management: Stop above $82
Why It Works: Classic distribution pattern, former leader rolling over, strong rallies getting sold (bear trap setup), several analysts calling top
10. TSLA - Tesla (Rating: 6.5/10 NEUTRAL-BEARISH)
Friday Close: $437.40 (-2.70%)
Catalyst: Q4 deliveries miss (418K vs consensus), first annual decline in decade
Entry Zone: $435-445 (for puts or short)
Targets: $420 (-4.0%), $400 (-8.6%), $380 (-13.1%)
Options Play: TSLA Jan 31 $430 puts at $8-12
Risk Management: Stop above $455
Why It Works: Multiple analysts cutting targets (Truist $439, Morgan Stanley $425 Equalweight), BYD surpassing TSLA in EV sales, deliveries down 15% Y/Y, air pocket visible in volume profile around $420-430
📰 BREAKING NEWS & CATALYSTS (Post-Market 1/2/26)
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
🚨 Warren Buffett Retires as Berkshire Hathaway CEO (12:51 AM)
Confirms he will no longer speak at 2026 annual meeting
Leadership transition = market uncertainty short-term
Impact: Potential BRK.A/BRK.B volatility Monday
🚨 OpenAI May Acquire Pinterest in 2026 (1:14 AM)
Report from The Information
Interest in Pinterest's image data, ad business, merchant relationships
PINS jumping on speculation - watch for continuation Monday
Sympathy plays: Image/AI stocks like ADBE, U, GTLB
🚨 Strategy (MSTR) Braces for Major Q4 Bitcoin Loss (12:02 AM)
Expected multibillion-dollar Q4 loss after BTC fell 24%
Shares down 48% in 2025, 70% below November 2024 peak
Enterprise value nearing parity with Bitcoin holdings
Risk: If BTC reverses, MSTR could see violent downside
🚨 Government Shutdown Risk Falls to 29% (1:10 AM)
Down from 40-48% last month
Unified Republican control = less gridlock
71% chance deal reached on time
Bullish for market sentiment and government contractors
🚨 FBI Thwarted ISIS-Inspired Attack in North Carolina (12:24 AM)
Planned for New Year's Eve
Impact: Defense/security stocks could see bid Monday
TRUMP IMPACT & POLITICAL EDGE:
President Trump posted multiple messages 1/2/26:
📌 "Tariffs are an overwhelming benefit to our Nation" (12:52 AM)
Defending tariff policy against Supreme Court challenge
Impact: Industrial/domestic manufacturing stocks bullish
📌 Wind Turbines: "Killing birds by the millions! Eagles going down!" (12:40-41 AM)
Clear anti-wind energy stance
Bearish: Wind stocks (VWDRY, NEE wind divisions)
Bullish: Traditional energy (XOM, CVX, OXY)
📌 Furniture Tariff Delay Extended Another Year
Bullish: RH, W, WSM, ARHS, ETD retailers
📌 Trump Momentum Building:
ICE operations in Minnesota: 500+ arrests in 2026 already
Japan PM confirms "new close alliance" with US in 2026
Rep. Tim Burchett calling for Elon Musk return to DOGE
💎 CRYPTO MARKET BREAKDOWN
Bitcoin (BTC): $90,600 (+4.2%)
CRITICAL BREAKTHROUGH: First time above 50-day MA since October 2025
MACD histogram on weekly signaling momentum shift
Next resistance: $95K, then $100K psychological level
Support established at $87,600
Ethereum (ETH): $3,350 (+3.8%)
Broke above 50-day MA and 50-week MA
Key level: Must hold $3,050 for bullish signal to confirm
Target: $3,800, then $4,200
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 28/100 = Fear (was 46/100 stock market neutral)
Contrarian bullish indicator when this low
Room for significant upside as fear subsides
Altcoin Action:
SOL, AVAX, MATIC all following BTC higher
Crypto shorts liquidated: $100M in past 60 minutes (1:25 AM)
Short squeeze fuel building
Crypto Mining Stocks:
BMNR +11.75% (leader)
COIN doing well despite ETF outflows
IREN +5% (AI data center play)
Bitcoin ETF Flows (Bearish Context):
IBIT posted -$244M outflows last week (2nd consecutive)
8 of last 10 weeks = outflows
AUM down to $67.6B (down $32B or -32% from October peak)
BUT: Price breaking 50-MA suggests worst may be over
📈 OPTIONS FLOW & DARK POOL ACTIVITY
BULLISH FLOW HIGHLIGHTS:
✅ SPY March 2027 $865-880 Calls - Algo buying cheap OTM long-term calls for blowoff surge
✅ SOXL (Semi Bull 3X) Feb $49 Calls - 2,100 contracts at $5.10, up 14% on day
✅ NVDA: $62.5M Bullish Flow Today - Institutions loading up
✅ ARMG (2X Long ARM ETF): 3,107 Contracts - Implied vol +11.7 points to 111%
✅ SLV $35 Calls - Millions buying Jan 15, 2027 and Jan 16, 2026 expirations
BEARISH/HEDGE FLOW:
⚠️ BA Put/Call: 16k/47k - Boeing still seeing protective puts
⚠️ RKT Put/Call: 1,651/23k - Rocket Mortgage repeat activity
KEY TAKEAWAY:
Options market positioning heavily bullish on semiconductors and long-dated upside in SPY. Institutions preparing for continued rally but hedging individual names like BA.
🏦 ECONOMIC CALENDAR & EARNINGS (Week of 1/5/26)
Monday 1/5/26:
No major economic releases
Focus on post-holiday trading flows and sector momentum
Tuesday-Friday This Week:
Average Hourly Earnings
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
Construction Spending MoM data
Fed Balance Sheet (Dec 31)
Key Earnings This Week:
APLD, AIR, STZ, NX, APOG, TLRY, ANGO, AYI, WDFC, AZZ, CMC, JEF, PENG, MSM, NEOG, PSMT, RELL, RPM, HELE, SLP, SAR, LNN, GBX, FC, SMPL, AEHR, ACI, KRUS, UNF, ANIX, RGP, NTIC
Most Watched: CMC (Commercial Metals) - industrial play
Major Conferences:
🎤 CES Tech Conference Next Week = Major catalyst for semiconductors and AI stocks
Top Trading Community Calls:
ProblemSniper:
"Amazing start to the year. 2026 is going to be a firecracker. I can feel it."
Posted: AMD $235C Jan 23 at $3.50 or less swing trade
INTC bullish bets are real
COIN trade: "Did you take it?"
Jason (@3PeaksTrading):
"Volume ratios still chugging higher, would not be surprised to see late day rally"
CES Tech conference next week = semis can run into that, then sell off Jan OPEX
"Did not have OXY calls as biggest win to start 2026 on my bingo card"
TSM: Took profits on short puts, 75% gain to start year
Ripster:
"$BE - One of my favorite names hitting all our targets today!"
Space & Rocket theme starting hot - top investing sector for 2026
Cloud system working flawlessly for shorts and longs
Adam Mancini (Futures Trader):
ES_F levels: 6,938 remains brick wall, 6,925 bull/bear line
"There's 6913 next target hit. This was an absolutely textbook Failed Breakdown"
Precision level calls respected all day
kulturdesken:
"If Semis lead and AI semis lead with gap and go, then hold up while QQQ pulls back - is that bearish or bullish?"
Answer: Very high chance markets will be stronger
Bought JD and TSM for longer-term holds
MightyMo's Top 10 for 2026 - Day 1 Performance:
BMNR: +11.75% 🔥
ASTS: +4.58%
RKLB: +3.15%
HIMS: +1.66%
NVDA: +1.61%
HOOD: -0.11%
GOOGL: -0.53%
TSLA: -1.47%
AMZN: -2.14%
PLTR: -3.99%
Key Insight: Top-performing names from 2025 (PLTR, AMZN, TSLA) seeing profit-taking while beaten-down names (BMNR, space stocks) leading. Classic rotation.
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & SEASONALITY
S&P 500 Technical Setup:
$687 Call Wall - Bulls must reclaim to resume December uptrend
Support: 6,886 → 6,872 → 6,854
Resistance: 6,913 → 6,925 → 6,938 (major brick wall)
Pattern: Failed breakdown of Wednesday low = textbook long setup
Sector Breadth Analysis:
TICK readings barely budged on sell programs (only -480 lowest)
TICK surged to +1,029 into close = squeeze potential
Nasdaq breadth at highs all day despite price weakness = divergence bullish
Volume ratios chugging higher = late-day rally fuel
Seasonality Notes:
First trading day of year typically DOWN -0.3% median since 1953
Last 3 years: S&P declined on Day 1
2026 bucking trend = potentially strong year ahead
Technicians note: First few days don't forecast full-year trends
Market Internals:
Advance/Decline: Positive all day despite SPY red
New Highs: Metals (AA, MT, ERO, HBM hitting 52-week highs)
VIX Futures: -2% = Complacency returning
🌍 INTERNATIONAL & MACRO FACTORS
China Developments:
BABA up 5.5% on military contracts (TAM doubled)
BYD officially overtook Tesla as world's largest EV seller
Chinese stocks outperforming US tech 2-3X over 12 months
Patent filings: China 27% of global (up from 13% in 2014), US down to 20%
Oil & Energy:
Oil prices drop after biggest annual loss since 2020
OPEC+ meeting Sunday: Base case = keeping policy as-is (no Q1 production increases)
US gas prices: Lowest level in 5 years (1:48 AM tweet)
Federal Reserve:
Balance sheet surged +$24.4B (biggest jump since March 2023 banking crisis)
Total assets: $6.58 trillion (highest since end of October)
Projected to buy $35-55B in T-bills monthly in 2026 = ~$550B total
Balance sheet officially EXPANDING again = bullish liquidity
Geopolitical:
US Navy MQ-4C Triton drone conducting reconnaissance over Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz near Iran
Potential Middle East tensions = watch defense stocks (LMT, RTX, NOC)
🎲 HIGH-PROBABILITY TRADE SETUPS FOR MONDAY 1/5/26
OPENING BELL STRATEGY (9:30-10:30 AM):
Gap & Go Continuation Plays:
If semis gap up at open: Look for TSM, MU, INTC to hold gains and add
If BTC holds $90K+: BMNR, COIN, MSTR dip-buying opportunities
Watch for 10 AM reversal (Ripster's 10 AM concept) - repeated rejections possible
Rotation Plays:
Continue shorting 2025 winners if they gap up: PLTR, HOOD, NVDA (if overbought)
Buy laggards on dips: UBER, UPS, SOFI if they pull back
Avoid/Hedge:
TSLA: Delivery miss catching up, analyst downgrades piling on
Software (IGV): Weakest sector, ADBE down 2 ATR
MIDDAY STRATEGY (10:30 AM-2:00 PM):
If Market Consolidates:
Use Ripster's cloud system for short-term scalps
Watch ES_F 6,925 level - reclaim = bullish, reject = chop continues
If Market Breaks Higher:
Add to winning semiconductor positions
Trail stops up to lock profits
Look for late-day squeeze into 3:30 PM
CLOSING STRATEGY (2:00-4:00 PM):
Power Hour Momentum:
If TICK readings surge like Friday (+1,029), expect short squeeze
0-DTE option traders will push SPY toward max pain or call walls
Volume typically picks up 3:00-4:00 PM for institutional rebalancing
Overnight Holds:
Keep core positions in TSM, MU, RKLB (thesis trades)
Reduce size in volatile names (BMNR, crypto miners)
Set stop-losses 2-3% below entry on all swing trades
🚨 RISK FACTORS TO MONITOR
⚠️ Market Risks:
MSTR Q4 earnings could tank if BTC reverses → contagion to crypto miners
10-year yield rising (4.18%) → If breaks 4.5%, tech will sell off
Mag 7 underperformance continuing → Market breadth narrowing concern
Software sector weakness spreading to broader tech
⚠️ Geopolitical Risks:
Iran tensions (US drone reconnaissance) → Oil spike possible
Trump tariff rhetoric → Trade war fears resurface
Government shutdown (29% chance) → Still non-zero
⚠️ Earnings Risks:
Tesla Q4 earnings Jan 26 → Margin concerns, delivery miss fallout
Any big tech disappointment → Sector-wide selling
⚠️ Technical Risks:
ES_F 6,938 proving major resistance → 3rd rejection in 2 days
SPY $687 call wall → Dealers will fight this level
VIX near lows → Complacency spike risk
📋 FINAL TRADING GAMEPLAN FOR MONDAY 1/5/26
PRE-MARKET (4:00-9:30 AM):
[ ] Check ES_F overnight levels (above/below 6,925?)
[ ] Monitor Bitcoin ($90K hold = bullish continuation)
[ ] Scan for any weekend news (OPEC+, geopolitical, Trump tweets)
[ ] Review TSM, MU, INTC pre-market action (expect continuation)
MARKET OPEN (9:30-10:00 AM):
[ ] Enter 25% position in TSM if holds $218+ (full entry $220-222)
[ ] Enter 25% position in MU if dips to $103-105 (full entry on confirmation)
[ ] Watch RKLB for breakout above $29 (enter half position)
[ ] Set alerts: SPY $685 (breakdown), SPY $690 (breakout)
MIDDAY (10:00 AM-2:00 PM):
[ ] Add to winners if thesis confirms (semis holding, BTC holding $90K+)
[ ] Scale into INTC on any dip under $22.50 (target $25+)
[ ] Monitor PLTR for breakdown below $76 (enter puts)
[ ] Check ES_F 6,925 level for direction clues
POWER HOUR (2:00-4:00 PM):
[ ] Take 50% profits on day trades if up 3-5%
[ ] Trail stops on swing positions (3-5% below entry)
[ ] Add to OXY if breaks $49 with volume (oil reversal thesis)
[ ] Review PINS for OpenAI acquisition speculation continuation
AFTER HOURS (4:00-8:00 PM):
[ ] Check for any earnings beats in sympathy plays
[ ] Review futures positioning for Tuesday gap direction
[ ] Set limit orders for Tuesday opening positions
[ ] Post trade journal notes in DCG Command Center
💡 KEY LESSONS FROM FRIDAY'S ACTION
Sector rotation is REAL - Don't fight it, trade it. Money moved OUT of 2025 winners INTO beaten-down names.
Breadth > Price - SPY closed red but breadth was positive all day = hidden strength.
0-DTE options drive intraday volatility - Low liquidity + algo trading = whipsaw moves.
Semiconductors are the new leaders - Follow the money: NVTS +10%, ASML +8%, MU +8%.
Bitcoin breaking 50-MA is significant - First time since October = trend change confirmation.
Trust the technicals - Adam Mancini's ES_F levels hit EXACTLY multiple times. Levels matter.
"Better than feared" is the new bullish - TSLA delivery miss barely moved stock = low expectations priced in.
🎯 BOTTOM LINE: WHAT TO DO MONDAY
✅ BUY:
Semiconductors on any dip (TSM, MU, INTC priority)
Bitcoin miners if BTC holds $90K (BMNR, COIN, IREN)
Space stocks on breakouts (RKLB above $29, ASTS above $32)
Energy if oil reverses (OXY, XLE)
Chinese stocks on breakouts (JD above $37, BABA above $148)
❌ AVOID/SHORT:
Mag 7 unless they prove strength (AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN weak)
Software (IGV worst sector)
Former 2025 leaders still topping (PLTR, HOOD if rallies fail)
TSLA until delivery/margin concerns clear
🎲 WATCH:
PINS for acquisition speculation continuation
MSTR for Bitcoin correlation (risk if BTC reverses)
Government shutdown odds (bullish if stays low)
CES conference headlines next week (semi catalyst)
🚀 JOIN THE WINNING TEAM
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📌 FINAL THOUGHTS
Friday's action confirmed what we've been saying: 2026 will be the year of sector rotation and stock-picking. The Mag 7 monopoly is over. New leaders are emerging in semiconductors, AI infrastructure, energy, and even China.
The key to success: Stay flexible, follow the money flow, and don't marry positions. If semiconductors lead, we go ALL IN on semis. If they falter, we rotate to the next hot sector.
Trade smart. Trade often. And always have a plan.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational purposes only. All trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Prices verified against 1/2/26 closing data.
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