🚀 GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ENDS: Markets Rally as Political Gridlock Breaks — AI Stocks Under Pressure But Opportunity Emerges

⚡ KEY THINGS TO KNOW FOR WEDNESDAY'S SESSION

✅ SHUTDOWN BREAKTHROUGH: Senate passed funding bill 60-40, House vote scheduled Wednesday 4PM EST — BULLISH CATALYST

📉 AI STOCK ROTATION: SoftBank sold entire $5.8B NVDA stake | CoreWeave cuts guidance -14% | Valuation concerns mounting

💰 AMD BOMBSHELL: CEO Lisa Su announces $45 billion in custom chip design revenue beginning 2026 at Analyst Day

🔄 SECTOR ROTATION ACTIVE: Healthcare (+2.21%), Energy (+1.95%), Financials (+0.59%) LEADING | Tech (-0.78%) lagging

₿ CRYPTO RANGE-BOUND: Bitcoin trading $104K-$107K range, needs break above $111K to confirm bullish continuation

📈 FEAR & GREED INDEX: 29/100 (FEAR) — Contrarian buy signal as market consolidates

🎯 MARKET SENTIMENT OVERVIEW

Bullish Factors ✅

• Government Shutdown Resolution: 42-day impasse ending, removes major uncertainty

• Strong Breadth: RSP (equal-weight S&P) outperforming, showing healthy market internals

• Sector Rotation: Money flowing into Value, Healthcare, Energy — sign of healthy market

• Hassett Optimism: WH Sr. Adviser projects 3-4% GDP growth by early 2026, inflation "really good"

• Low VIX: Rejected at 18, suggesting dip-buying opportunities

Bearish Factors ⚠️

• AI Valuation Concerns: Wells Fargo downgrades AI sector, warns of "overly bullish sentiment"

• Softbank Exit: $5.8B NVDA stake sale signals potential AI bubble top

• Weak Labor Data: ADP shows -11,250 jobs/week in late October

• Bitcoin Outflows: $82.29M net outflow Nov 11, whale selling continues

• Fed Uncertainty: CPI data Thursday Nov 13 could trigger volatility

📈 YESTERDAY'S MARKET RECAP (November 11, 2025)

Indices Performance:

• SPY: $682.92 (+0.22% from prior close ~$681) ✅

• QQQ: $623.23 (+2.21% from $609.74) ✅

• DIA: $479.06 (+1.11%) ✅

• IWM: $244.48 (+0.18%) ✅

Index Futures (Current):

• ES_F: 6,857 (working toward 6,863, 6,877 targets)

• VIX: 17.51 (-0.51% / -2.15% from session highs)

Key Support/Resistance:

• SPY Support: $676 | Resistance: $685-$690

• QQQ Support: $610 | Resistance: $629-$637

• ES_F: Support 6,820-6,836 | Resistance 6,877-6,889

🔥 BREAKING NEWS & CATALYSTS

🏛️ WHITE HOUSE & POLITICAL IMPACT

Government Shutdown Resolution (MAJOR CATALYST) The Senate passed a funding bill in a 60-40 vote Monday evening to end the record 42-day government shutdown, with the House scheduled to vote Wednesday at 4PM EST. President Trump praised House Speaker Johnson and Senate leaders, calling it a "very big victory" during his Veterans Day speech at Arlington.

Economic Outlook:

• WH Sr. Adviser Hassett stated "we will be back at 3 to 4 percentage growth pace by early next year" and that "the trajectory for inflation is really good"

• Hassett noted some economic surveys were not completed due to shutdown

• Trump dismissed 50-year mortgages as "no big deal," saying they lower monthly payments but delay equity building

Regulatory Actions:

• Trump administration declares CFPB funding illegal according to Politico

• CFPB has sufficient funds for operations until at least December 31st

Infrastructure Impact:

• U.S. airlines canceled more than 1,000 flights Tuesday for the fifth day as government reductions remain in place

• Air traffic controllers missed their second full paycheck, with staffing shortages reported at 18 facilities

💻 TECH & AI SECTOR NEWS

NVIDIA (NVDA: $193.60, -3.0%) ⚠️ BEARISH PRESSURE SoftBank Group sold its entire 32.1 million share stake in Nvidia for $5.83 billion in October to help bankroll other AI investments. SoftBank CFO Yoshimitsu Goto said the stake sales were part of the firm's "asset monetization" strategy while maintaining they want to "provide investment opportunities for investors while maintaining financial strength".

Entry Zone: $188-$192 (near 200-day EMA support)
Targets: $205 (+5.9%), $215 (+11.1%)
Stop Loss: $185 (-4.4%)
Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy | Avg PT: $237 (+22%)

AMD (AMD: $243.98, +4.47%) 🚀 BULLISH CATALYST AMD CEO Lisa Su announced at Analyst Day that AMD has $45 billion in custom chip design revenue that will begin in 2026. Su stated "customers not leveling off AI investments" and "demand insatiable for AI compute infrastructure".

Entry Zone: $240-$245 (current consolidation)
Targets: $260 (+6.6%), $280 (+14.8%), $300 (+23%)
Stop Loss: $235 (-3.7%)
Trade Rating: 8/10 — Strong technical setup with fundamental catalyst

CoreWeave (CRWV: Down -14%) ⚠️ AVOID CoreWeave tumbled 14% after the company lowered its forecast, marking a setback for the AI infrastructure company. Multiple traders noted shorting opportunities.

GOOGLE (GOOGL: Strong) ✅ BULLISH Google plans to invest €5.5 billion in cloud infrastructure in Germany, with plans to build a data center in Dietzenbach. Senior Google Official stated the investment will secure 9,000 jobs in Germany.

Entry Zone: $280-$285
Targets: $300 (+5.3%), $315 (+10.5%)
Stop Loss: $275 (-3.5%)

🏥 HEALTHCARE & BIOTECH SECTOR 🔥 HOTTEST SECTOR

Sector Performance: XLV +2.21% | XBI (Biotech) leading market

Eli Lilly (LLY: Approaching $1,000) 🚀 MOMENTUM PLAY Obesity stocks showed strength with LLY working toward the $1K magnet level. Multiple analysts cited LLY as best performing trade in recent weeks.

Entry Zone: $975-$985
Targets: $1,000 (+1.5%), $1,025 (+4.1%)
Stop Loss: $960 (-2.6%)
Trade Rating: 9/10 — Clear psychological level, strong fundamentals

Novo Nordisk (NVO: +5.5%) ✅ SWING SETUP NVO formed a "filthy double bottom" pattern and needs to capitalize with strength. NVO showed nice double bottom swing setup.

Entry Zone: Current levels after +5.5% pop
Targets: 10-15% upside from double bottom pattern
Stop Loss: Below double bottom support
Trade Rating: 7/10 — Technical pattern play

Vyriad (VKTX), Madrigal (MDGL): Also showing strength in obesity/GLP-1 theme

⚡ ENERGY SECTOR 🔥 STRONG MOMENTUM

Sector Performance: XLE +1.50% | XOM at 2025 highs +1.35%

Natural Gas (UNG: +4.55 to $4.55/MMBtu) 🚀 U.S. natural gas futures surged nearly 5% to $4.55 per MMBtu. Sector showing sustained momentum into year-end.

Antero Resources (AR: Strong) ✅ Multiple traders taking profits after strong November run. Nat gas stocks "humming nicely all month" per Discord analysis.

Energy Thesis:

• Underowned sector heading into winter

• Natural gas supply/demand improving

• Political support for domestic energy

XLE Trade:
 Entry: $92-$93
Targets: $96 (+3.2%), $100 (+7.5%)
Stop: $90 (-3.2%)
Trade Rating: 7/10

💰 FINANCIALS & REGIONAL BANKS

Sector Performance: XLF +0.59% showing relative strength

Shell (SHEL: Strong Put/Call Ratio 837/4,959) 📊 Heavy call buying suggests bullish positioning in energy majors.

Regional Banks (KRE: Leading) ✅
Showing strength as shutdown concerns ease and rate cut expectations moderate.

🔗 CRYPTO & DIGITAL ASSETS

Bitcoin (BTC: $105,000) 📊 RANGE-BOUND

Bitcoin is trading near $105,000 midday UTC, with today's intraday range roughly $104,733–$107,355. The U.S. Senate passed a funding bill to end the record shutdown, a risk-on tailwind that has helped steady crypto sentiment.

Technical Setup:

• Support: $98,953 (critical), $100,288 (secondary)

• Resistance: $109,386 (23.6% Fib), $111,000 (key breakout level)

• The Bitcoin chart reveals a tightening range between $104,000 and $109,000, with the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $105,399 acting as immediate resistance

Market Dynamics:

• Bitcoin open interest reached $68.96 billion on November 11, highlighting persistent confidence among derivatives traders

• Bitcoin spot products recorded an $82.29 million net outflow on November 11, marking continuation of selling pressure since late October

Catalysts to Watch:

• U.S. CPI (Oct) due Thursday, Nov. 13 — potential volatility catalyst for BTC

• House vote on funding bill (reduces macro tail risk)

Trading Strategy:
 NEUTRAL - Wait for breakout confirmation

• Long Entry: Above $111K (confirmed breakout)

• Short Entry: Below $98K (breakdown)

• Current Action: Stay sidelined in $98K-$111K range
   Trade Rating: 5/10 until directional break

Crypto Infrastructure Plays:

• Robinhood says "crypto is becoming the infrastructure for the global financial system"

• AI crypto stocks (CRWV, IREN, WULF, MARA, RIOT, CIFR) under pressure with AI sector weakness

📊 KEY ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS

This Week's Calendar:

Wednesday, November 12:

• House vote on government funding bill (4PM EST) 🔴 MAJOR

• No economic data (shutdown delayed releases)

Thursday, November 13:

• CPI Report (October) 8:30AM EST 🔴 CRITICAL

• Expected: Will show inflation trajectory post-shutdown

• Impact: Could determine December Fed rate cut probability

Friday, November 14:

• Market digests CPI impact

• Weekly options expiration

🎯 HIGH-CONVICTION TRADE IDEAS

TRADE #1: AMD Long 🚀 STRONG BUY

Ticker: AMD
Entry: $240-$245
Targets: T1: $260 (+6.6%), T2: $280 (+14.8%), T3: $300 (+23%)
Stop Loss: $235 (-3.7%)
Position Size: 3-5% of portfolio
Timeframe: 2-4 weeks
Catalyst: $45B custom chip revenue announcement, AI demand acceleration
Risk/Reward: 1:4 (Excellent)
Conviction Rating: 9/10 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thesis: AMD announced $45 billion in custom chip design revenue beginning 2026, with CEO Lisa Su stating customers are not leveling off AI investments and demand is insatiable for AI compute infrastructure. Technical setup shows consolidation after earnings with strong institutional support.

Options Play:

• Dec 20 $260 Calls for momentum

• Jan 2026 $250 Calls for longer duration

TRADE #2: Healthcare Sector Rotation ✅ BUY

Tickers: XLV (ETF), LLY, NVO
Entry: Current levels
Targets: XLV: $160 (+3%), LLY: $1,000 (+1.5%), NVO: +10-15%
Stop Loss: Below Monday lows
Position Size: 2-3% each
Timeframe: 1-2 weeks
Catalyst: Sector leadership rotation, obesity drug momentum
Risk/Reward: 1:3
Conviction Rating: 8/10 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thesis: Healthcare leading market with strongest relative strength. Obesity stocks strong with LLY approaching $1K magnet and NVO showing double bottom technical pattern. Sector benefits from defensive rotation + growth story.

TRADE #3: Energy Momentum ⚡ BUY

Tickers: XLE, AR, XOM
Entry: XLE $92-$93
Targets: $96 (+3.2%), $100 (+7.5%)
Stop Loss: $90 (-3.2%)
Position Size: 2-3% of portfolio
Timeframe: 2-3 weeks
Catalyst: Natural gas +5%, winter demand, political tailwinds
Risk/Reward: 1:2.5
Conviction Rating: 7/10 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thesis: Natural gas futures up nearly 5% to $4.55 per MMBtu, with energy sector showing leadership. XOM quietly at 2025 highs while XLE Energy up 1.5% on the day. Underowned sector with seasonal tailwinds.

TRADE #4: SPY/QQQ Dip Buy on CPI 📊 CONDITIONAL

Tickers: SPY, QQQ
Entry: SPY $676-$678, QQQ $610-$615 (on CPI weakness)
Targets: SPY: $690 (+2%), QQQ: $635 (+3.3%)
Stop Loss: SPY $672 (-0.9%), QQQ $605 (-1.6%)
Position Size: 5% of portfolio
Timeframe: 3-5 days
Catalyst: Shutdown resolution + any CPI dip = buy opportunity
Risk/Reward: 1:2
Conviction Rating: 7/10 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thesis: Market breadth solid with RSP (equal-weight) strong and green, showing strength beyond mega-caps. Shutdown resolution removes overhang. Any CPI-driven weakness is buying opportunity given improving fundamentals.

TRADE #5: NVDA Contrarian Long ⚠️ SPECULATIVE

Ticker: NVDA
Entry: $188-$192 (on further weakness)
Targets: $205 (+7.4%), $220 (+15.2%)
Stop Loss: $182 (-4.3%)
Position Size: 2% of portfolio (smaller due to headwinds)
Timeframe: 2-3 weeks
Catalyst: Oversold on SoftBank news, earnings Nov 19
Risk/Reward: 1:3
Conviction Rating: 6/10 ⭐⭐⭐

Thesis: SoftBank sold entire 32.1M share stake for $5.83B, creating short-term pressure but removing overhang. Nvidia jumped nearly 3.5% on Monday's shutdown optimism. Earnings Nov 19 could be catalyst for reversal. Wait for $188-$192 entry for better risk/reward.

🚫 STOCKS TO AVOID

CoreWeave (CRWV) ❌

• Down -14% on lowered guidance

• AI infrastructure concerns mounting

• Multiple traders successfully shorting
   Rating: AVOID / POTENTIAL SHORT

Palantir (PLTR) ⚠️

• Extreme valuation concerns despite solid earnings

• Down -11% last week on AI sector rotation

• Wait for better entry
   Rating: AVOID SHORT-TERM

AI Infrastructure Basket ❌

• CRWV, NBIS, LEU, OKLO, CIFR, WULF, IREN under pressure

• Sector rotation away from speculative AI plays

• Wait for stabilization
   Rating: AVOID / REDUCE EXPOSURE

📊 S&P FUTURES (ES_F) KEY LEVELS

Current Price: 6,857

ES_F levels respecting well with 6836-38 support holding exact as predicted, with targets of 6851 (hit 3x), 6857 (hit), 6863 (hit), and 6877 (hit). Bull flag breakout confirmed with bonus targets at 6889, 6897, and 6918.

Support Levels:

• 6,836-6,838: Primary support (held multiple times Monday)

• 6,820: Secondary support

• 6,807: Major support on breakdown

Resistance Levels:

• 6,877: Next target (hit Monday)

• 6,889: Bonus target #1

• 6,897: Bonus target #2

• 6,918: Extended target

Trading Strategy:

• Low volatility environment with bond market closed — don't overtrade

• Look for 6,841 reclaim to trigger moves higher

• Any dip to 6,836 is potential long entry

💎 SECTOR ANALYSIS

🔥 BULLISH SECTORS (Money Rotation Targets)

1. Healthcare (XLV: +2.21%) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
   

   • Leading sector with obesity drug momentum

   • Defensive characteristics + growth story

   • Top Plays: LLY, NVO, VKTX, MDGL

2. Energy (XLE: +1.95%) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
   

   • Natural gas surge driving sector

   • Seasonal tailwinds into winter

   • Top Plays: XOM, AR, Natural gas producers

3. Financials (XLF: +0.59%) ⭐⭐⭐
   

   • Shutdown resolution positive for banks

   • Regional banks (KRE) showing strength

   • Top Plays: Large caps + select regionals

4. Consumer Staples (XLP: +1.35%) ⭐⭐⭐
   

   • Target lowering prices on 3,000 items during holiday season

   • Defensive rotation theme

⚠️ BEARISH SECTORS (Reduce Exposure)

1. Technology (XLK: -0.78%) ⚠️⚠️
   

   • AI valuation concerns mounting

   • SoftBank NVDA exit psychological impact

   • Caution: Mega-cap tech, AI infrastructure

2. AI Infrastructure ❌❌
   

   • CoreWeave guidance cut major red flag

   • Sector-wide multiple compression

   • Avoid: CRWV, speculative AI plays

🎪 MONEY ROTATION ANALYSIS

Current Flow: Tech → Healthcare, Energy, Financials

RSP (equal-weight S&P) hitting fresh highs of day showing breadth winning out, with NYSE volume ratios at highs. This indicates healthy market breadth beyond mega-caps.

Rotation Indicators:

• Value > Growth: First time in weeks

• Equal-Weight > Market-Cap Weight: Positive breadth signal

• Small Caps (IWM) holding $244: Key resistance test

Trading Implication:
Focus on sector leaders (Healthcare, Energy) rather than chasing mega-cap tech. Market rewarding fundamentals over momentum.

🏆 TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES

Energy Independence Theme ⚡

Trump considering opening California to offshore drilling according to reports, with Governor Newsom saying Trump offshore oil plan is "dead on arrival" in California. Political battle supports energy sector thesis.

Plays: XLE, oil service stocks (HAL, SLB)

Rare Earth/ Domestic Production 🇺🇸

German Economy Ministry stated new Chinese export controls on rare earths do not comply with international standards. U.S. domestic rare earth plays could benefit.

Plays: MP Materials (mentioned by Trump regarding rare earth threats)

Government Efficiency 📊

Shutdown resolution shows political will to govern. Market likes reduced uncertainty.

🌍 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

Europe 🇪🇺

• Italy's FTSE MIB surpasses 2007 peak, hits highest since 2001

• $EFA (Europe ETF) record high, $VGK (Europe ETF) gunning for record close

• Implication: European equities showing strength, consider EFA/VGK exposure

Germany 🇩🇪

Bundesbank suggests three-stage plan to stabilize German debt and ensure return to sound finances. Fiscal responsibility theme supporting European assets.

Asia 🌏

JD reports surge in Singles' Day orders and overseas sales. China consumption showing resilience.

📅 EARNINGS CALENDAR

This Week (Notable):

• AMD Analyst Day completed — $45B revenue catalyst ✅

• Multiple companies reporting this week

• Focus on guidance given shutdown disruptions

Upcoming:

• NVDA Earnings: November 19 (Next major catalyst)

🎓 MASTERMIND INSIGHTS & SOCIAL CHATTER

Key Trader Themes:

1. Adam Mancini (Futures):
   Emphasizes low volatility environment with bond market closed, warns against overtrading, highlights levels respecting perfectly with multiple profit targets hit
   

2. Market Breadth Bulls:
   Traders noting RSP (equal-weight) strength, emphasizing breadth over mega-cap performance
   

3. AI Trade Skeptics:
   Multiple analysts warning about AI valuations. Quote: "It's over. Pushback on Orcl and Meta was the start. Msft badly lagging for 3 months. CRWV now"
   

4. Contrarians:
   Sentiment collapse in quality names like DUOL creating "incredible opportunities" per Data Driven Investing
   

Options Flow Highlights:

• NVDA: $108M flow in first 90 minutes Monday

• SPY: $1B gamma exposure pinning at $680 level

• Heavy call buying in energy names

🎯 FINAL STRATEGY & GAME PLAN

Wednesday's Trading Plan:

Morning (Pre-Market to 11AM):

1. Monitor House funding bill developments

2. Watch ES_F levels — 6,877 key resistance

3. Look for AMD consolidation entry $240-$245

Midday (11AM-2PM):

1. Assess sector rotation continuation

2. Healthcare/Energy strength = add exposure

3. Tech weakness = wait for better entries

Afternoon (2PM-Close):

1. House vote at 4PM — expect volatility

2. Protect gains if funding bill passes (bullish)

3. Hedge if vote fails (bearish)

Overnight:

1. Hold core long positions (AMD, Healthcare)

2. Small hedge via VIX calls or QQQ puts

3. Prepare for CPI Thursday morning

📊 POSITION MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES

Current Market Regime: ROTATION / LOW VOLATILITY

Recommended Allocation:

• 40% Core Longs (AMD, Healthcare, Energy)

• 30% Tactical Swings (sector rotation plays)

• 20% Cash (dry powder for CPI volatility)

• 10% Hedges (VIX calls, QQQ puts)

Risk Management:

• Use 2-3% stop losses on all positions

• Take 50% profits at first target

• Trail stops on runners

• Don't overtrade low volatility environment

🚨 KEY RISKS TO MONITOR

1. CPI Thursday: Could trigger 2-3% move in indices

2. House Vote Failure: Would reverse Monday's rally

3. AI Sector Contagion: More guidance cuts possible

4. Fed Pivot: December rate cut odds shifting

5. Bitcoin Breakdown: Below $98K triggers cascade

💡 KEY TAKEAWAYS

✅ Government shutdown ending = major overhang removed
 ✅ Sector rotation favors Healthcare, Energy, Financials
 ✅ AMD $45B AI revenue catalyst = best tech setup
⚠️ AI infrastructure under pressure — be selective
⚠️ CPI Thursday = major volatility catalyst
 ✅ Market breadth healthy — bull market intact
💰 VIX at 17.51 = dip-buying opportunity

🎓 EDUCATIONAL CORNER: AI TRADING SKOOL

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📌 DISCLAIMER

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. All trade ideas include inherent risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Position sizing and risk management are critical to long-term success.

🎯 Bottom Line for Wednesday, November 12, 2025:

The market is in healthy rotation mode with the government shutdown ending removing a major overhang. Focus on sector leaders (Healthcare, Energy) while being selective in Tech. AMD's $45B AI revenue announcement provides the best risk/reward in semiconductors. Watch for CPI Thursday — any weakness is a buying opportunity given improving fundamentals and strong market breadth.

Trade with discipline. Manage risk. Stay patient for your setups.

Newsletter compiled by DCG Command Center

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