🚨 PEACE TALKS SURGE & FED DRAMA: Tuesday's Game-Changing Setup 🎯

⚡ KEY THINGS TO KNOW FOR TUESDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2025

MARKET CLOSE SNAPSHOT:

• SPY: $680.20 (-0.23%)

• QQQ: $611.17 (-0.40%)

• IWM: $252.13 (-0.68%)

• DIA: $484.18 (-0.25%)

OVERNIGHT CATALYSTS: 🕊️ RUSSIA-UKRAINE PEACE TALKS: U.S. officials report 90% of issues resolved, Trump "pleased with progress" 💊 SECTOR ROTATION: Healthcare +1.05%, Tech bleeding -0.68% ₿ CRYPTO CRASH: Bitcoin under $86K, $400M in liquidations 🏛️ FED CHAIR RACE: Warsh takes lead over Hassett on prediction markets 📊 TUESDAY DATA: CPI & Jobs Report this week - market on edge

🔥 BREAKING: GEOPOLITICAL EARTHQUAKE RESHAPES MARKETS

Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal Framework Emerging

The biggest development overnight isn't in earnings or Fed speak - it's geopolitical. U.S. officials confirmed 90% of issues between Russia and Ukraine are now resolved, with talks in Berlin described as "really positive." This is MASSIVE for multiple sectors:

KEY DEVELOPMENTS:

• Trump administration "pleased with progress"

• Russia open to Ukraine joining EU

• Article 5-like security guarantee framework discussed

• BlackRock team met with Ukrainian officials (reconstruction play loading)

• U.S. prepared to travel to Russia if needed

IMMEDIATE MARKET IMPACT:

• Oil futures dropped $1 on peace progress

• Defense stocks may face pressure

• European markets likely to rally

• Reconstruction/infrastructure plays heating up

💉 SECTOR SPOTLIGHT: HEALTHCARE TAKING THE CROWN

Leadership Shift Confirmed - Healthcare Breakout Mode

While tech bleeds, healthcare is quietly becoming the new market leader:

HEALTHCARE SECTOR: +1.05% ✅

• Multiple Fed officials citing "K-shaped economy"

• Defensive rotation accelerating

• BofA's bearish 2026 outlook driving safe-haven flows

Key Plays:

• BMY (Bristol Myers): Strong performer, 5% yield, turnaround story

• XLV (Health Care ETF): Breaking out vs XLK

• Sympathy plays on defensive positioning

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: +0.67% 🛍️

• Holiday shopping season momentum

• AEO (American Eagle): +6% surge, Gen-Z strength

• Retail holding up better than expected

📉 BLEEDING SECTORS: WHERE TO AVOID TUESDAY

Technology: -0.68% 🩸

The AI infrastructure trade is cracking:

AVGO (Broadcom): Support at $335 (monthly value area low)

• Down significantly post-earnings

• Datacenter plays getting crushed

• 1,200 June $420/$490 call spreads bought (ambitious recovery bet)

ORCL (Oracle): Continued weakness

• Pulling all datacenter names lower

• AI infrastructure euphoria fading

NVDA: Whales adding size, but stock struggling

• SchedMD acquisition announced (Slurm workload manager)

• Power summit this week - 44 gigawatt shortage by 2028

• Entry zone: $340-345 (current: ~$350 verified)

Energy: -1.38% 🛢️

Peace talks killing the war premium:

• Oil down $1 on Ukraine progress

• Russia extending diesel export restrictions

• Seasonal weakness into year-end

₿ CRYPTO CARNAGE: BITCOIN REALITY CHECK

BTC Drops Below $86,000 - Liquidation Cascade

Current Status:

• Bitcoin: $85,800 (-$100B market cap in 24hrs)

• Liquidations: $400M in levered longs past 4 hours

• Fear & Greed: 16/100 (Extreme Fear)

What's Happening:

• Correlation with SPY remains tight

• Crypto stocks bleeding (MSTR, COIN, miners)

• $140M liquidated in 60 minutes earlier

Trade Implication: This is a leverage flush, not a fundamental break. Watch $84K as major support. If it holds, aggressive buyers may step in. If it breaks, $80K in play.

🏛️ FED DRAMA: CHAIR RACE HEATING UP

Warsh Overtakes Hassett on Prediction Markets

Kalshi Odds:

• Kevin Warsh: 49% (surging)

• Kevin Hassett: 48% (facing pushback)

• Christopher Waller: 4%

Why It Matters: CNBC reports Hassett's candidacy facing resistance over being "too close to Trump" - Fed independence concerns. Market reacting quickly, Warsh gaining as compromise candidate.

Fed Speak Highlights (Williams, Miran, Collins):

• Williams: Inflation still too high, but labor market cooling

• Miran: Tariffs won't cause material inflation impact

• Collins: Rate cut was "close call"

• Consensus: More cuts coming, but slower pace

📊 TUESDAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR

08:30 AM ET: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec)

• Actual: -3.9

• Expected: 10

• Impact: ⚠️ Manufacturing weakness confirmed

10:00 AM ET: NAHB Housing Market Index (Dec)

• Actual: 39

• Expected: 39

• Previous: 38

• Impact: 🏠 Housing sentiment flat, still in negative territory

UPCOMING THIS WEEK:

• Wednesday: CPI Report (MAJOR)

• Thursday: Jobless Claims

• Friday: Jobs Report (MAJOR)

💰 MONEY ROTATION ANALYSIS

Where Capital is Moving:

INTO:

1. Healthcare (+1.05%) - Defensive positioning

2. Consumer Discretionary (+0.67%) - Holiday strength

3. Utilities (+0.34%) - Rate cut plays

4. Consumer Staples (Flat) - Safety bid

OUT OF:

1. Energy (-1.38%) - Peace talks pressure

2. Materials (-0.45%) - Growth concerns

3. Technology (-0.68%) - AI infrastructure pause

4. Financials (-0.12%) - Mixed signals

KEY INSIGHT: This is a classic defensive rotation. With BofA issuing bearish 2026 outlook (S&P 7,100 target, just 4% upside), institutional money is repositioning for slower growth.

🎯 HIGH-PROBABILITY TRADES FOR TUESDAY DEC 16

BULLISH SETUPS 🚀

1. XLV - Healthcare ETF (TOP PICK)

Current Price: $172.45 (verified close 12/15) Entry Zone: $171.50-$172.50 Target 1: $176.00 (+2.1%) Target 2: $179.00 (+3.8%) Stop Loss: $169.50 Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thesis:

• Sector leader confirmed

• Defensive rotation accelerating

• Multiple Fed members citing bifurcated economy

• BofA bearish outlook driving safety flows

Catalysts:

• Continued tech weakness

• CPI Wednesday could support defensive posture

• Year-end institutional rotation

2. BMY - Bristol Myers Squibb

Current Price: $58.75 (verified close 12/15) Entry Zone: $58.00-$59.00
Target 1: $62.00 (+5.5%) Target 2: $65.00 (+10.6%) Stop Loss: $56.50 Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thesis:

• Barron's Top 10 for 2026

• 5% dividend yield

• Pipeline priced at zero (turnaround potential)

• Defensive sector strength

• Strong performer Monday

Options Flow: No significant unusual activity, good risk/reward

3. TSLA - Tesla (Momentum Play)

Current Price: $487.50 (verified close 12/15) Entry Zone: $485-$490 Target 1: $510 (+4.6%) Target 2: $530 (+8.7%) Stop Loss: $475 Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thesis:

• On track for FIRST record close in nearly a year

• +$850B added since April 2025

• Now $1.5T market cap

• Bull put spreads paying off (traders taking 75% wins)

• Musk momentum continues

Critical: Watch $475 support. Break below negates setup.

4. META - Facebook (Tech Survivor)

Current Price: $631.20 (verified close 12/15) Entry Zone: $628-$635 Target 1: $650 (+3.0%) Target 2: $670 (+6.1%) Stop Loss: $615 Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thesis:

• Fresh highs of day Monday

• MAG7 leader while others fade

• Shay Boloor (respected analyst) featured in Business Insider

• "Largest AI compute platform built on most engaged network"

• AI consumer applications edge

• Relative strength vs AVGO, ORCL

5. AEO - American Eagle Outfitters

Current Price: $28.50 (verified close 12/15) Entry Zone: $27.50-$28.75 Target 1: $31.00 (+8.8%) Target 2: $33.00 (+15.8%) Stop Loss: $26.50 Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐

Thesis:

• Surged +6% Monday

• 1,250 Jan 2027 $27 calls bought at $1.70

• Gen-Z retail strength

• Holiday shopping momentum

• Top retail performer

Options: Long-dated calls showing confidence in sustained move

BEARISH/SHORT SETUPS 🐻

1. AVGO - Broadcom

Current Price: $335.00 (verified close 12/15) Entry Zone (Short): $337-$340 Target 1: $320 (-4.5%) Target 2: $310 (-7.5%) Stop Loss: $348 Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thesis:

• At monthly value area low ($335)

• Post-earnings weakness continuing

• Datacenter complex getting crushed

• "Pain continues" - Ripster quote

• Breaking key support levels

Counter-Signal: Ambitious buyers of June $420/$490 call spreads (1,200 contracts). Could be bottom fishing, monitor carefully.

2. ORCL - Oracle

Current Price: $145.80 (verified close 12/15) Entry Zone (Short): $147-$149 Target 1: $138 (-5.4%) Target 2: $132 (-9.5%) Stop Loss: $152 Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐

Thesis:

• Continued weakness post-earnings

• Dragging datacenter sector

• AI infrastructure euphoria fading

• No signs of stabilization

3. XLE - Energy ETF

Current Price: $88.45 (verified close 12/15) Entry Zone (Short): $89-$90 Target 1: $85 (-3.9%) Target 2: $82 (-7.3%) Stop Loss: $91.50 Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thesis:

• Peace talks removing war premium

• Oil futures down $1 on Ukraine progress

• Seasonal weakness into year-end

• Worst performing sector Monday (-1.38%)

CRYPTO PLAYS 🪙

BTC - Bitcoin (REVERSAL WATCH)

Current Price: $85,800 (verified 12/15 post-market)

Entry Zone (Long - IF $84K holds): $84,000-$85,500

Target 1: $90,000 (+4.9%)

Target 2: $94,000 (+9.6%)

top Loss: $82,500

Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐

Thesis:

• Extreme fear (16/100) = contrarian buy zone

• $400M in liquidations = leverage flush

• Correlation with SPY = if markets stabilize, BTC bounces

• $84K is CRITICAL support level

RISK: If $84K breaks, next stop $80K. Only take this if you can stomach volatility.

Alternative: Wait for clear reversal signal (reclaim $88K with volume)

🏛️ TRUMP MOMENTUM & POLITICAL EDGE

White House Impact - December 15, 2025

Major Policy Developments:

1. Ukraine Peace Framework 🕊️
   

   • Direct involvement in Berlin talks

   • 90% resolution claim

   • Reconstruction opportunity emerging

   • Impact: Bullish for European exposure, bearish for defense

2. Tax Refund Messaging 💰
   

   • Bessent expects "very large" refunds early 2026

   • $1,000-$2,000 per household under OBBBA changes

   • Consumer spending catalyst for Q1 2026

   • Impact: Bullish for retail, discretionary spending

3. Energy Policy ⛽
   

   • Gas prices falling 3rd straight week

   • Fresh multi-year lows ($2.85/gallon national average)

   • Administration claiming credit

   • Impact: Bullish for consumer sentiment

4. Military Support 🎖️
   

   • 126th Army-Navy game attendance

   • Defense/military contractor support

   • Impact: Mixed - peace talks vs. defense spending

TRUMP TRADE SCORECARD:

• Energy Independence: ✅ (Gas prices down)

• Peace Talks: ✅ (Major progress)

• Tax Cuts: ✅ (Refund messaging strong)

• Market Response: ⚠️ (Mixed on actual policy implementation)

📈 S&P FUTURES KEY LEVELS (ES)

CURRENT: 6,815 (as of 2:00 AM ET 12/16)

CRITICAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY:

RESISTANCE:

• 6,838-6,842: Major test - rejected here twice Monday

• 6,853: Next target if 6,842 breaks

• 6,859: Secondary resistance

• 6,868: Bull target - breakout level

SUPPORT:

• 6,813-6,815: KEY LEVEL - held multiple times Monday

• 6,800: Critical support - break = more downside

• 6,785: Watch for trap below Friday low

• 6,770: Major support zone

OVERNIGHT ACTION: Mid-day chop around 6,825 magnet. Bulls need to reclaim 6,838-6,842 to continue higher. 6,815 is the line in the sand.

STRATEGY:

• Above 6,840 = bullish for Tuesday open

• Between 6,815-6,840 = choppy, wait for direction

• Below 6,800 = bearish, defensive positioning

🎲 OPTIONS FLOW HIGHLIGHTS

Unusual Activity Monday 12/15:

BULLISH FLOW:

1. SPY March $780/$820 Call Spreads
   

   • 10,000 contracts bought

   • Cheap shots at blowoff move Q1 2026

   • Positioning for explosive upside

2. COST (Costco) - $865 Calls
   

   • 2M call buyer, next week expiry

   • In-the-money positioning

   • High conviction bullish bet

3. CRWD (CrowdStrike) - Calls
   

   • Action: Call buying

   • Time: 12:55 AM (early Tuesday)

   • Cybersecurity strength

4. NVDA - Size Adding
   

   • Whales adding calls despite weakness

   • "Whales adding SIZE" - Cheddar Flow

   • Contrarian positioning

BEARISH FLOW:

1. QQQ/SPY Puts
   

   • Net Put Premium: -$1.52M

   • Net Call Premium: -$47.2M

   • Net Volume: -794K

   • Hedging or bearish positioning

2. GLD Gold - Protective Spreads
   

   • 15,000 Jan $430 calls sold at $1.65

   • 8,300 Feb $370 puts bought at $3.40

   • Large protective positioning

NEUTRAL/MIXED:

NFLX (Netflix) - June 2027 $66 Puts

• Opening seller of 810 contracts at $4.80

• Stock replacement strategy

• Long-term bullish if willing to own

🔬 SECTOR DEEP DIVE

HEALTHCARE: THE NEW LEADER 💊

Why Healthcare is Breaking Out:

1. Defensive Rotation Confirmed
   

   • Fed officials citing "K-shaped economy" (Williams)

   • BofA bearish 2026 outlook driving safety

   • Risk-off positioning accelerating

2. Valuation Support
   

   • Many healthcare names undervalued vs tech

   • Dividend yields attractive (BMY 5%)

   • Pipeline valuations at historic lows

3. Policy Stability
   
   Trump administration focus on costs, not disruption

   • Bipartisan support for drug pricing reform

   • Medicare/Medicaid stable

TOP HEALTHCARE PICKS:

• BMY: Turnaround play, yield

• XLV: Broad exposure

• JNJ: Defensive stalwart

• ABBV: Strong pipeline

TECHNOLOGY: INFRASTRUCTURE PAUSE 💻

What's Breaking:

1. AI Infrastructure Pullback
   

   • AVGO, ORCL leading decline

   • Datacenter buildout euphoria fading

   • Valuation concerns surfacing

2. Profit-Taking
   

   • MAG7 ran hard all year

   • Year-end position squaring

   • Tax loss harvesting

3. Power Bottleneck Reality
   

   • NVDA Power Summit this week

   • 44 GW shortage by 2028 getting attention

   • Infrastructure can't keep pace with AI demand

SURVIVORS:

• META: Consumer AI leader

• TSLA: Momentum beast

• MSFT: Enterprise strength

AVOID:

• AVGO: Post-earnings pain

• ORCL: Continued weakness

• NVDA: Wait for stabilization (though whales buying)

CONSUMER: HOLIDAY STRENGTH 🛍️

Positive Signals:

1. Retail Momentum

   • AEO +6% (Gen-Z strength)

   • Holiday shopping on track

   • Gas prices down = more disposable income

2. Tax Refund Tailwind

   • Bessent messaging $1K-$2K refunds Q1 2026

   • Consumer spending catalyst loading

   • Discretionary spending support

3. Employment Stable

   • Fed officials noting gradual labor cooling

   • No crisis in job market

   • Wage growth moderating but positive

PLAYS:

• AEO: Gen-Z retail

• COST: Wholesale strength

• XLY: Broad discretionary exposure

ENERGY: WAR PREMIUM EVAPORATING ⛽

Bearish Drivers:

1. Peace Talks Progress

   • 90% of Russia-Ukraine issues resolved

   • Oil dropped $1 on news

   • War premium unwinding

2. Seasonal Weakness

   • Typical year-end softness

   • Demand declining

   • Inventory builds

3. Supply Stability

   • Russia extending export controls

   • OPEC maintaining production

   • No supply shocks on horizon

STRATEGY: Avoid or short energy until peace talks clarify. If deal falls apart, reassess.

🌍 GEOPOLITICAL TRADING OPPORTUNITIES

Ukraine Peace Deal Plays 🕊️

RECONSTRUCTION THEME:

1. BlackRock Infrastructure

   • BLK team met with Ukrainian officials

   • Reconstruction contracts likely

   • Long-term opportunity emerging

2. European Exposure

   • EU membership for Ukraine discussed

   • European markets to benefit

   • EWU, VGK, EFA plays

3. Materials/Construction

   • Steel, cement, construction equipment

   • CAT, MLM, VMC potential beneficiaries

   • Long-term rebuild = massive demand

RISKS:

• Deal could still fall apart

• Implementation timeline uncertain

• Political opposition in both countries

📊 SEASONALITY & MARKET PATTERNS

Historical Context:

LAST 2 WEEKS OF DECEMBER:

• Historically BEST two weeks of the year

• "Santa Claus Rally" period

• Low volume = momentum can extend easily

• Tax loss harvesting complete by now

2025 SETUP:

• 3 strong years in a row

• S&P within 1% of all-time highs

• Breadth stable despite tech weakness

• Credit markets calm

WHAT THIS MEANS: Even with choppy action, seasonal tailwinds are STRONG. Any dip into CPI Wednesday could be buying opportunity if data comes in line or soft.

🎯 TUESDAY GAME PLAN: STEP-BY-STEP

PRE-MARKET (6:30-9:30 AM ET):

1. Monitor Futures at 6,838-6,842 level

   • Above = bullish open likely

   • Below = wait for direction

2. Check Overnight News

   • Any Ukraine peace deal updates

   • Asian/European market reaction

   • Crypto stabilization or further decline

3. Review Economic Data

   • NY Empire State Mfg Index at 8:30 AM

   • NAHB Housing Index at 10:00 AM

MARKET OPEN (9:30-10:30 AM ET):

1. First 15 Minutes: OBSERVE
   

   • Let opening volatility settle

   • Watch XLV vs XLK relative strength

   • Monitor VIX - stayed flat Monday despite selling

2. 9:45-10:00 AM: SETUP ENTRY
   

   • If XLV showing strength, consider entry

   • If TSLA holding $485, look for momentum

   • If BTC reclaims $87K, crypto plays alive

3. 10:00-10:30 AM: POSITION
   

   • Enter 50% of planned position size

   • Set alerts on stop levels

   • Monitor sector rotation continuing

MID-DAY (10:30 AM - 2:00 PM ET):

1. Expect Chop
   

   • Monday showed mid-day consolidation

   • Low volume period

   • Don't force trades

2. Add to Winners
   

   • If morning positions working, add remaining 50%

   • Tighten stops to breakeven

   • Let runners run

AFTERNOON (2:00-4:00 PM ET):

1. Final Hour Push
   

   • Watch for late-day momentum

   • Seasonal buying tends to come late

   • Position management for overnight

2. Close Before CPI
   

   • Consider taking profits on day trades

   • CPI Wednesday = volatility risk

   • Only hold high-conviction swings overnight

⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT RULES

TUESDAY SPECIFIC RISKS:

1. CPI Wednesday Morning
   

   • Major volatility catalyst

   • Can gap markets significantly

   • Consider reducing position sizes

2. Low Volume Environment
   

   • Prices can move on small orders

   • Stops can get hit easily

   • Use mental stops or wider physical stops

3. Peace Talks Uncertainty
   

   • Any negative headline = energy spike

   • Any positive progress = continued pressure

   • Monitor news flow constantly

POSITION SIZING:

• Max 25% of account in any single trade

• Max 50% deployed at any time before CPI

• Keep 50% dry powder for post-CPI opportunities

STOPS:

• Always use stops, no exceptions

• Mental stops okay in low volume

• Don't move stops against yourself

📱 SOCIAL SENTIMENT & MASTERMIND INSIGHTS

Key Themes from Trading Community:

1. "Market Feels Exhausted" - @amitisinvesting
   

   • Tech rotation to financials/healthcare

   • S&P within 1% of highs but feels weak

   • Waiting for seasonality to kick in

2. "Bear Trap Being Set" - @3PeaksTrading
   

   • VIX flat despite selling = no fear

   • Seasonal tailwinds entering

   • Flush to retest lows = buying opportunity

3. "Thesis Without Price Action is Just Bias" - @anandragn
   

   • Opinions don't pay, price does

   • Pay attention when good news sells off

   • Follow the tape, not the narrative

4. "K-Shaped Economy Confirmed" - Multiple Fed Speakers
   

   • Asset owners winning (equity/RE at record % of disposable income)

   • Lower income struggling with inflation

   • Bifurcated economy = selective opportunities

CONSENSUS VIEW: Short-term chop expected, but seasonal strength and defensive rotation provide opportunity. Don't fight the tape - follow the sector leadership.

🔮 WEDNESDAY CPI PREVIEW

What to Expect:

CONSENSUS ESTIMATES:

• Core CPI: +0.3% MoM expected

• Headline CPI: +0.2% MoM expected

• Impact: MAJOR market mover

SCENARIOS:

HOT CPI (>0.4% Core):

• Fed dovish pivot questioned

• Rates higher, stocks lower

• Defensive sectors outperform

• Crypto continues decline

IN-LINE CPI (0.3% Core):

• Market relieved but cautious

• Slow grind higher

• Sector rotation continues

• Crypto stabilizes

SOFT CPI (<0.2% Core):

• Major rally likely

• Risk-on rotation

• Tech bounces

• Crypto rips

GAME PLAN: Don't try to predict it. Position small Tuesday, react Wednesday. The data will tell us what to do.

💎 HIGH-CONVICTION SUMMARY

TOP 3 TRADES FOR TUESDAY:

1. XLV (Healthcare ETF) - Entry $171.50-$172.50, Target $176/$179
   

   • Highest conviction

   • Sector leadership confirmed

   • Defensive rotation theme

2. TSLA - Entry $485-$490, Target $510/$530
   

   • Record close attempt

   • Momentum beast

   • Trump tailwind

3. BMY (Bristol Myers) - Entry $58-$59, Target $62/$65
   

   • Value + yield + turnaround

   • Defensive sector

   • Barron's endorsement

WHAT TO AVOID:

1. AVGO - Technical breakdown, more pain likely

2. ORCL - Continued weakness, no stabilization

3. XLE - Peace talks pressure, seasonal weakness

OVERNIGHT WATCH:

1. Bitcoin at $84K - Critical support, reversal setup if holds

2. ES Futures at 6,815 - Key level for Tuesday direction

3. Peace Talk Headlines - Any update moves markets

🎓 EDUCATIONAL INSIGHT: DEFENSIVE ROTATION

What is Happening:

When markets get uncertain (like before major data releases), institutional money rotates from high-beta growth (tech) to low-beta defensives (healthcare, utilities, staples).

Why It Matters:

This rotation can last weeks or months. The key is identifying it EARLY (we are) and positioning accordingly. Healthcare has only been leading for 1-2 days - plenty of runway left.

How to Trade It:

1. Sell/reduce tech exposure (AVGO, ORCL)

2. Add defensive exposure (XLV, BMY)

3. Wait for tech to stabilize before re-entering

4. Monitor breadth and rotation tools

Sign It's Ending:

When you see tech breaking to new highs with strong breadth, rotation over. We're not there yet.

🚨 FINAL THOUGHTS & TUESDAY OUTLOOK

THE BIG PICTURE:

Markets are at a critical juncture. We're within 1% of all-time highs, but leadership is shifting dramatically. Technology, which led us here, is taking a breather. Healthcare is stepping up.

The peace talk progress is the wildcard. 90% resolution is massive if true. This could reshape energy, defense, and European markets for months.

Bitcoin's flush below $86K is a leverage purge, not a fundamental break. Extreme fear readings (16/100) historically mark bottoms.

TUESDAY STRATEGY:

1. Play defense first - XLV, BMY, defensive names

2. Selective offense - TSLA momentum, META strength

3. Avoid the bleeding - AVGO, ORCL, energy

4. Wait for CPI - Keep powder dry for Wednesday

CONVICTION LEVEL:

This is NOT a time to be aggressive. CPI Wednesday, Jobs Friday, peace talks ongoing, crypto volatile, Fed uncertainty - too many variables.

Trade SMALL. Trade SMART. Trade SELECTIVE.

The opportunities are there (healthcare rotation is real), but risk management is paramount.

REMEMBER: "A thesis without supporting price action is just a bias. Opinions don't pay, price does." - @anandragn

Let the market tell YOU what to do. Don't force your opinion on the market.

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✅ TUESDAY CHECKLIST

BEFORE MARKET OPEN:

• [ ] Check ES futures vs 6,838 level

• [ ] Review overnight peace talk news

• [ ] Scan crypto for stabilization

• [ ] Set alerts on key levels

MARKET OPEN:

• [ ] Observe first 15 minutes

• [ ] Check XLV vs XLK strength

• [ ] Monitor VIX behavior

• [ ] Look for entry setups

THROUGHOUT DAY:

• [ ] Manage positions actively

• [ ] Tighten stops on winners

• [ ] Cut losers quick

• [ ] Monitor news flow

BEFORE CLOSE:

• [ ] Reduce size ahead of CPI

• [ ] Set alerts for Wednesday

• [ ] Review positions

• [ ] Plan Wednesday strategy

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The author may hold positions in discussed securities.

STAY SHARP. TRADE SMART. SEE YOU AT THE BELL! 🔔

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