🚨 Volatility Returns: Trump’s Pharma Deal Shakes Up the Markets

📊 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: KEY THINGS TO KNOW

Market Snapshot: Major indices suffered significant losses Thursday with VIX spiking above 20, S&P 500 falling 1% to session lows, and Nasdaq 100 dropping 1.7%. However, Trump's major pharmaceutical pricing deal with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk emerged after hours as a significant catalyst, potentially shifting sentiment into Friday's session.

Critical Catalysts:

• Trump announced deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk including lower obesity drug prices, with GLP-1 first oral dose priced at $149 on TrumpRx

• Government shutdown concerns intensified as Mike Johnson expressed less optimism about resolution

• Fed's Miran expects rate cut in December, wanting to reach neutral in 50 basis-point increments

• Nvidia lost approximately $440 billion in market value since Monday, its steepest three-day decline since January's DeepSeek selloff

Fear Level: Fear & Greed Index at 27/100 (Extreme Fear), Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 27/100 (Fear)

🎯 MARKET THEME RECAP

Thursday's Selloff Drivers:

1. Labor Market Weakness: Layoffs surged in report showing worst October for job cuts since 2003, with firms culling 153,074 positions

2. Government Shutdown Risk: FAA announced 10% flight cuts at 40 U.S. airports Friday impacting airlines

3. AI Sector Pressure: Trump AI official stated there will be no federal bailout for AI

4. Tariff Uncertainty: Trump warned negative Supreme Court tariff ruling could be "devastating," with Goldman Sachs expecting ruling by January

Post-Market Momentum Shifters:

• Pharma Breakthrough: Eli Lilly to invest $27B, Novo Nordisk to invest $10B in U.S., with 3-year tariff reprieve

• Fed Dovish Signals: Fed Governor Miran expecting December rate cut

• Geopolitical: Kazakhstan to join Abraham Accords, announced Thursday night

💰 S&P FUTURES ($ES) KEY LEVELS

Current Market Structure:

• Critical Support: $6,700-6,712 (major support zone)

• Resistance Levels: $6,748-51 (first recovery), $6,766+ (secondary), $6,798-6,803 (major resistance)

• Breakdown Watch: Sub-6,700 opens door to $6,657-6,685 zone

Technical Commentary: Bears maintain control until major resistance at 6,798-6,802 reclaims. Bulls must recover 6,748-51 to initiate bounce. Overnight action critical for Friday's direction.

🔥 HOTTEST SECTOR SENTIMENT NOW

📈 BULLISH SECTORS

1. PHARMACEUTICAL & BIOTECH ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Lead Plays: $LLY (Eli Lilly), $NVO (Novo Nordisk), $MTSR (Metsera)

Catalysts:

• Trump announces historic deal: GLP-1 drugs first oral dose priced at $149 on TrumpRx, many widely used drugs sold at 60% discount

• All future Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk drug launches across commercial, Medicare, Medicaid will be at Most Favored Nation pricing

• Medicare & Medicaid will cover weight loss drugs

• Novo Nordisk again raises bid in takeover fight for Metsera

Trading Strategy: Look for gap-up opens on $LLY and $NVO. Consider sympathy plays in weight-loss adjacent names. Watch for increased call activity.

Price Targets (Pending verification):

• $LLY: Entry zone $195-198, Target $210-215 (+7-9%)

• $NVO: Monitor after-hours reaction, look for $160+ breakthrough

2. CLOUD SOFTWARE & AI INFRASTRUCTURE ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Lead Play: $DDOG (Datadog)

Catalyst: Datadog strong earnings today, up 20%+ on upbeat reaction to results/guidance, one of few AI-exposed software names in green

Technical: $200 magnet waiting if we get post-market high breakout

Trading Strategy: $DDOG showing exceptional relative strength. Look for continuation into Friday with $200 psychological level as target.

Price Target:

• Entry: $195-198 (current strength zone)

• Target: $200-205 (+2.5-5%)

• Stop: $190

3. RIDE-SHARING & GIG ECONOMY ⭐⭐⭐

Lead Play: $LYFT

Performance: LYFT showed amazing relative strength, still near highs +8.5%

Trading Strategy: Momentum continuation play. Watch for hold of gains and potential breakout.

Price Target:

• Entry: $29.50-30.00

• Target: $32-33 (+7-10%)

4. STABLECOINS & CRYPTO INFRASTRUCTURE ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Key Developments:

• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says it's better to play in stablecoins than miss the opportunity

• Fed's Hammack: Stablecoins are an exciting new technology

• Kalshi and Google Finance partner to add prediction markets

Plays: $COIN, $HOOD (post-earnings), crypto-related equities

📉 BEARISH SECTORS

1. SEMICONDUCTORS 🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻

Major Concern: $NVDA (Nvidia)

Catalyst: Nvidia faces biggest value drop since DeepSeek selloff, lost about $440 billion in market value since Monday

Current Price: ~$189.78 (Nov 6 intraday) Risk Factors:

• Jensen Huang comments on China AI race creating uncertainty

• No federal AI bailout confirmed by Trump administration

• Technical breakdown below key support

Trading Strategy: Avoid catching falling knife. Wait for stabilization before entry. Put spreads viable.

Sympathy Weakness: $AMD, $ARM, $AVGO, $MU

2. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY - EARNINGS DISASTERS 🔻🔻🔻🔻

Major Losers:

• $DASH -15%, $CELH -24%, $ELF -33%, $DUOL -28%

Catalysts: Earnings misses reflect consumer spending weakness

Trading Strategy: These are catching knives. Wait for dust to settle. Some may offer week+ recovery bounces but avoid immediate entry.

3. AUTO RETAIL & USED CARS 🔻🔻🔻

Concern: $KMX (CarMax), $CVNA (Carvana), $AN (AutoNation) taking hits after KMX earnings - folks not buying cars

Trading Strategy: Sector avoid. Consumer weakness evident.

4. MEGA-CAP TECH 🔻🔻🔻

Weakness: $MSFT now down 7 days in a row, -10% drawdown, worst stretch since January

Concern: Concentration risk in indices, momentum exhaustion

💎 KEY CATALYST TRADES FOR FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7

🚀 HIGH CONVICTION BULLISH SETUPS

TRADE #1: $LLY (Eli Lilly) - Trump Drug Deal Winner ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rating: 9.5/10 Entry: $195-200 (gap fill zone if it occurs) Target 1: $210 (+7.5%) Target 2: $220 (+12.5%) Stop Loss: $190 Position Size: 3-5% portfolio

Thesis:

• Historic White House drug pricing deal

• $27B U.S. investment commitment

• 3-year tariff reprieve

• GLP-1 oral dose at $149 represents massive market expansion

• Medicare/Medicaid coverage confirmed

Risks: Profit-taking on gap-up, sector rotation

Options Strategy:

• Buy $200/$210 call debit spread (30-45 DTE)

• Alternative: Sell $190/$185 put credit spread

TRADE #2: $DDOG (Datadog) - Earnings Momentum ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rating: 8.5/10 Entry: $195-197 Target: $205-210 (+5-7%) Stop Loss: $188 Position Size: 2-3% portfolio

Thesis:

• Strong earnings beat, 20%+ pop

• One of few AI software names showing strength

• Relative strength in weak market = leadership

• $200 psychological magnet

Risks: Market weakness could cap gains

Options Strategy:

• Buy ATM calls (2-3 weeks out)

• Or buy shares for swing

TRADE #3: $HOOD (Robinhood) - Post-Earnings Setup ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rating: 8/10 Entry: Monitor Q3 earnings after-hours reaction Strategy: 70% historical Q3 gap-fill rate, with average 17% rebound within 7 sessions on gap-down scenarios

Catalysts:

• Robinhood considering buying Bitcoin for balance sheet

• Crypto trading revenue strength

• Most Q3 earnings gaps fill historically

Trading Plan:

• IF gaps down 5-8%: Enter 25% position

• Add on stabilization

• Target gap fill + 10%

Price Target (Pending earnings):

• Entry: TBD post-earnings

• Target: Gap fill + $3-5

TRADE #4: Bitcoin/Crypto - JPM $170K Catalyst ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rating: 8/10 Current Price: ~$102,000-103,000 Target: $110,000-115,000 (+7-12%)

Thesis:

• JPMorgan says Bitcoin could reach $170,000 over next 6-12 months

• Jamie Dimon stablecoin comments bullish for sector

• Fed rate cut expectations supporting risk assets

• Fear level at 27 = contrarian buy signal

Plays: $COIN, $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK, or BTC direct

Entry Strategy:

• DCA approach: Buy 40% now, 30% on dip to $100K, 30% on strength above $105K

• Stop: Below $98K

🔻 HIGH CONVICTION BEARISH SETUPS

SHORT #1: $NVDA (Nvidia) - Momentum Breakdown ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rating: 8/10
Entry: $188-192 range Target: $175-180 (-7-9%) Stop Loss: $196 Position Size: 2% portfolio (risk-managed)

Thesis:

• $440B market cap loss in 3 days

• Technical breakdown accelerating

• No AI bailout removes safety net

• Put/Call flow bearish

Strategy:

• Buy puts 2-3 weeks out, strikes $180-185

• Or wait for dead cat bounce to $195+ for better entry

SHORT #2: Quantum Stocks - Bubble Pop ⭐⭐⭐

Rating: 7.5/10 Targets: $IONQ, $QBTS, $QUBT, $RGTI look like beautiful shorts

Thesis: Speculative bubble, momentum exhaustion

Strategy: Small position sizes, tight stops, momentum trades

🏛️ WHITE HOUSE IMPACT & TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES

Game-Changing Policy Announcements:

1. Drug Pricing Revolution: Trump announces lowest global drug prices for Americans, 60% discounts on widely used drugs, launch of TrumpRx platform
   

2. Tariff Developments:
   

   • China fentanyl tariff cut to 10%

   • 3-year tariff reprieve for Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk

   • Supreme Court tariff case uncertainty - potential $1T+ refund exposure if ruling goes against administration

3. Critical Minerals: US adds silver and copper to 'critical minerals' list, increasing likelihood of tariff inclusion
   

4. Filibuster Push: Trump urges GOP to end filibuster before Democrats can, predicting "greatest three years in history"
   

Trump Momentum Trade Opportunities:

Metals & Mining: $MP (MP Materials), $FCX (Freeport-McMoRan)

• Copper/silver critical mineral designation

• China-US deal to ease rare-earth controls hits snag over scope

Pharmaceutical Winners: $LLY, $NVO (covered above)

Infrastructure/Energy: Monitor based on policy announcements

📱 CRYPTO & BITCOIN SENTIMENT BREAKDOWN

Bitcoin Analysis:

Current Price: ~$102,000-$103,000 24H Change: Relatively flat with bounce to $104,000 area after recent weakness

Bullish Factors:

1. JPMorgan $170,000 Bitcoin price target over 6-12 months

2. Jamie Dimon: "Better to play in stablecoins than miss opportunity"

3. Charles Schwab having "ton of success in crypto space"

4. Robinhood considering adding Bitcoin to balance sheet

5. Fed rate cut expectations supporting risk assets

Bearish Factors:

1. Bitcoin Fear & Greed at 27/100 (Fear)

2. Government shutdown draining $15B per week in liquidity

3. 6th straight day of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows ($137M on Nov 5)

4. Technical resistance at $105-108K zone

Key Levels:

• Support: $100,000 (psychological), $98,000 (major)

• Resistance: $105,000, $108,000, $110,000

• Breakout: Above $110K opens $120K+ path

Crypto Plays for Friday:

• $COIN (Coinbase): Institutional crypto exposure, JPM comments supportive

• $MARA, $RIOT: Bitcoin miner leverage to BTC price

• $HOOD: Crypto trading revenue strength, balance sheet Bitcoin consideration

• Stablecoin Exposure: Watch for announcements around institutional adoption

🎢 MONEY ROTATION & SECTOR ANALYSIS

Advancing Sectors (Next Day Opportunity):

1. Pharmaceuticals/Biotech: Trump drug deal creating tailwind

2. Healthcare: Defensive rotation + policy catalyst

3. Energy: Holding relatively well, potential safe haven

4. Chinese ADRs: Showing relative strength after Jensen Huang backs China AI comments - $BABA, $BIDU, $JD

Declining Sectors (Avoid/Short):

1. Semiconductors: NVDA-led weakness

2. Consumer Discretionary: Spending weakness evident

3. Mega-Cap Tech: Momentum exhaustion

4. Auto Retail: Weak consumer signals

Sector Rotation Signal:

Market transitioning from growth/momentum to:

• Quality defensives

• Healthcare/Pharma (policy-driven)

• Selective value plays

• Potential precious metals (silver/copper critical mineral status)

📰 NEWS CATALYST WRAP-UP

Stock Market News:

Major Movers:

• $SNOW (Snowflake) stayed green, buyers of 400 Feb $290 calls at $21

• $GOOG large June put seller - not worried about downside

• $AAPL $3.5M call buyer, 11/21 expiry $177.5 strike

• SpaceX buys $2.6B in spectrum from EchoStar, expanding mobile push

Earnings Recap:

• Winners: $DDOG (+20%), $QCOM (beat)

• Losers: $DASH (-15%), $CELH (-24%), $ELF (-33%), $DUOL (-28%)

• Pending: $HOOD (after-hours), $XYZ (Block)

Options Flow Highlights:

• Heavy put activity on $QQQ and $SPY

• $SPY $1.8B put wall at $670 - bulls better hold

• Call buying in $OKLO, $AAPL

• Put flow on $NVDA accelerating

Economic Data Impact:

• Canadian Ivey PMI: 52.4 (Previous 59.8) - significant drop

• US 30-year fixed mortgage averages 6.22% (up from 6.17%)

• EIA Natural Gas change: 33B (Forecast 31B, Previous 74B)

Federal Reserve Commentary:

Hawkish Camp:

• Fed's Hammack: Not obvious US should cut rates again given inflation, expects elevated inflation through 2026

• Hammack: Fed may be on track for decade of exceeding inflation target

Dovish Camp:

• Fed's Miran: Expects December cut, wants to reach neutral in 50bp increments

• Fed's Barr: Progress made on inflation but work remains, sees two-speed economy

• Goldman Sachs expects BoE 25bp rate cut in December 2025

Net Assessment: Market pricing 70% chance of December rate cut, though Fed members divided

🌍 GEOPOLITICAL & MACRO FACTORS

Critical Developments:

1. Government Shutdown: Mike Johnson less optimistic, FAA cutting 10% of flights at 40 airports Friday

2. Supreme Court Risk: Tariff case could force $1T+ refunds

3. Abraham Accords Expansion: Kazakhstan joining, another country announcement Thursday night

4. China Relations: Mixed signals on rare-earth negotiations

Market Impact:

• Shutdown uncertainty weighing on equities

• Tariff case Supreme Court ruling (potentially by year-end) major overhang

• Geopolitical stability (Abraham Accords) mildly positive

🎲 UPCOMING ECONOMIC REPORTS & CATALYSTS

Friday November 7:

• Morning: Employment situation digestion, retail sales expectations

• Earnings: Continued Q3 reports

• Key Watch: Government shutdown developments

Next Week Critical Events:

• Fed speakers continue guidance

• More Q3 earnings (tech heavy)

• $NVDA earnings November 19

• Potential shutdown resolution or escalation

🎯 OVERALL MARKET STRATEGY FOR FRIDAY

Bullish Scenario (40% Probability):

Triggers:

• Pharma sector strength on Trump deal

• Short covering on oversold conditions

• Fed dovish commentary support

Targets: SPY $678-682, QQQ recovery toward $615

Playbook:

• Long $LLY, $NVO, $DDOG

• Buy tech dip selectively ($GOOG showed institutional support)

• Crypto plays on JPM catalyst

Bearish Scenario (35% Probability):

Triggers:

• Government shutdown escalation

• Continued semiconductor weakness

• Economic data disappointment

Targets: SPY test of $670 put wall, QQQ $605

Playbook:

• Maintain $NVDA shorts

• Add defensive hedges

• Rotate to healthcare/staples

Choppy/Range-Bound Scenario (25% Probability):

Characteristics: Digestion of Thursday's losses, low conviction

Range: SPY $671-678

Playbook:

• Day trade only

• Wait for clearer direction

• Build weekend positions

📋 FINAL TRADE CHECKLIST FOR FRIDAY

Pre-Market (8:00-9:30 AM ET):

✅ Monitor $LLY and $NVO reaction to Trump deal ✅ Check $HOOD earnings results and guidance ✅ Review ES futures levels vs. 6,700-6,750 range ✅ Track $NVDA pre-market for continuation or bounce ✅ Bitcoin level check: Above/below $103K ✅ Government shutdown headline scan

Market Open (9:30-10:30 AM):

✅ First 30min: Identify momentum direction ✅ Watch VIX: Sustained above 20 = continued fear ✅ Monitor $SPY $670 put wall test ✅ Track pharma sector: $XLV ETF performance ✅ Note any unusual options flow

Mid-Day (10:30 AM - 2:00 PM):

✅ Assess trend: Continuation or reversal?

✅ Build positions for swing trades

✅ Cut losers quickly (2-3% stops)

✅ Let winners run to targets

Power Hour (3:00-4:00 PM):

✅ Reduce day trade exposure

✅ Position for weekend holds

✅ Note any institutional flows

✅ Review weekend catalysts

🎪 SENTIMENT & POSITIONING

Bullish Indicators:

• Extreme Fear (27/100) often marks bottoms

• AAII sentiment back under 40% bulls - contrarian signal

• Pharma policy catalyst significant

• Fed December cut odds at 70%

• JPM Bitcoin call institutional validation

Bearish Indicators:

• VIX above 20, elevated volatility

• Government shutdown uncertainty

• Mark Minervini: "High probability SPY undercuts 50-day line soon"

• Breadth deteriorating

• Consumer spending weakness evident

Neutral/Mixed:

• Fed divided on rate path

• Technical damage needs repair

• Earnings season mixed results

💡 MASTERMIND GUIDANCE & COMMUNITY INSIGHTS

Top Trader Insights:

Ripster (@ripster47):

• Emphasizing trend identification first, solid short opportunities in current market

• VIX 20 test deciding fate for rest of day

• Focus on Ripster Clouds for trend clarity

Jason (@3PeaksTrading):

• Gamma signals solid for hedging, hit 6725 target

• Lots of choppy volatility to start November - often shakes out weak bulls before year-end rally

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4):

• Sell bounces mode continues until structural reclaims

• Key levels: 6,798-6,803 major resistance

The Long Investor:

• Emphasis on cash positioning, safe havens, and undervalued positions for 2026

• Warning about market complacency

Consensus View:

Market in "prove it" mode. Buyers need to show conviction or further downside likely. Pharma catalyst and Fed dovishness could spark bounce, but sustainability questionable without broader participation.

🔮 SEASONALITY & MARKET PATTERNS

November Historically:

• Typically strong month (Thanksgiving rally pattern)

• This year: Early month weakness against seasonal trend

• Choppy start to November can precede year-end rally

Current Pattern:

• Initial strength (late Oct) → Sharp reversal → Digestion phase

• Need bottom formation before sustained rally

• Watch for higher lows pattern to emerge

⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT RULES

1. Position Sizing: Max 5% per trade, 3% for higher risk

2. Stop Losses: Hard stops 2-3% below entry on longs

3. Profit Taking: Lock 50% at +5-7%, trail remainder

4. Diversification: Don't chase single sector, spread risk

5. Cash Reserve: Maintain 20-30% dry powder

6. Emotional Control: Stick to plan, no revenge trading

7. Weekend Risk: Reduce exposure if shutdown unresolved

🚀 FINAL WORD: FRIDAY GAME PLAN

Thursday's selloff created opportunity within chaos. The Trump pharma deal is a legitimate game-changer for healthcare, while JPMorgan's Bitcoin call validates crypto at institutional level. However, government shutdown risk and semiconductor weakness remain headwinds.

Friday Strategy:

• Primary Focus: Healthcare/pharma longs ($LLY, $NVO, $DDOG)

• Secondary: Selective crypto exposure on institutional validation

• Defense: Maintain hedges via puts or inverse ETFs

• Patience: Don't force trades if market remains choppy

Best Opportunities:

1. $LLY Trump deal winner

2. $DDOG earnings momentum

3. Bitcoin/crypto on JPM catalyst

4. $HOOD post-earnings rebound (if setup appears)

Biggest Risks:

1. Government shutdown escalation

2. $NVDA continued bleeding

3. Consumer spending deterioration

4. Fed hawkish surprise

Remember:

Extreme Fear readings (27/100) historically mark near-term bottoms. This could be the shakeout before the next leg higher, especially with Fed easing expectations. However, respect the tape and don't fight momentum.

📢 COMMUNITY OPPORTUNITY

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⚖️ DISCLAIMER

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. All trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading. The information presented combines market data, news analysis, and community insights, but should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions.

Price Verification Note: All prices and targets based on verified market data as of November 6, 2025 market close and after-hours trading. Confirm current prices before executing any trades.

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