🚀 AI INFRASTRUCTURE MEGA-DEALS IGNITE TECH RALLY AS FED SIGNALS CAUTIOUS RATE PATH

🎯 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Market Sentiment: Bullish bias with AI infrastructure rotation
Leadership: Technology (AI/Cloud), Bitcoin Miners, Mega-Cap Tech
Key Catalyst: Amazon's $38B OpenAI partnership and Microsoft's multi-billion Lambda deal are driving enthusiasm in AI infrastructure plays
Fed Stance: Mixed signals with Goolsbee noting rates should settle "a fair bit below current levels" while expressing unease with frontloading cuts
Rotation Alert: Money flowing from crypto into AI-linked equities as $570M in crypto longs liquidated

📈 OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT

S&P 500 Futures: Trading near 6,893 - testing resistance after bouncing from 6,851 support
Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 6,900, 6,907

• Support: 6,877, 6,869, 6,851

Sector Performance:

• ✅ Leading: Technology (+0.68%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.95%)

• ❌ Lagging: Materials (-0.85%), Consumer Staples (-0.87%), Communications (-0.91%)

Volatility: VIX at 17.06 (-2.18%) - fear subsiding

🔥 HOTTEST SECTORS & MONEY ROTATION

AI INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM 🤖

The sector exploded after Amazon announced a $38B multi-year partnership with OpenAI, with AWS supplying EC2 UltraServers through 2026 and beyond, while Microsoft launched a multi-billion dollar AI infrastructure agreement with Lambda.

Top Performers Today:

• CIFR (Cipher Mining): +21.13% to $22.64

• IREN (Iris Energy): +10.02% to $66.86

• AREC (American Resources): +4.68% to $4.03

• THAR: +11.19% to $3.28

OpenAI has now signed $500B Stargate deal, $100B Nvidia deal, $100B AMD deal, $38B Amazon deal, $25B Intel deal, $20B TSMC deal, $13B Microsoft deal, $10B Oracle deal

MEGA-CAP STRENGTH 📱

Amazon received a Wedbush price target raise to $340 (from $330) following the OpenAI partnership, with analyst Dan Ives noting it strengthens Amazon's AI position

Current Verified Prices (Nov 3, 2025 Close):

• AMZN: $256.35 (+4.97%)

• NVDA: $210.52 (+3.97%)

• MSFT: $517.55 (-0.05%)

• GOOGL: $282.86 (+0.37%)

• TSLA: $469.50 (holding strong near $470)

💰 HIGH-CONVICTION TRADE IDEAS FOR TUESDAY

TRADE #1: AI INFRASTRUCTURE PLAYS ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Conviction: 95/100

IREN (Iris Energy)
Current Price: $66.86 (Verified Nov 3 close)
Entry Zone: $65.00-$67.50
Target 1: $73.50 (+10%)
Target 2: $80.00 (+20%)
Stop Loss: $62.00

Catalyst: Direct beneficiary of Amazon-OpenAI $38B deal and Microsoft-Lambda AI infrastructure agreements

CIFR (Cipher Mining)
Current Price: $22.64 (Verified Nov 3 close)
Entry Zone: $22.00-$23.50
Target 1: $25.00 (+10%)
Target 2: $28.00 (+24%)
Stop Loss: $20.50

Catalyst: Maintaining new highs, +33% with bull flows for months

TRADE #2: AMAZON BREAKOUT ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Conviction: 92/100

AMZN (Amazon)
Current Price: $256.35 (Verified Nov 3 close)
Entry Zone: $254.00-$258.00
Target 1: $270.00 (+5.3%)
Target 2: $295.00 (+15%)
Stop Loss: $248.00

Catalyst: $38B OpenAI partnership, Wedbush PT raise to $340, February $295 calls and April $310 calls being accumulated

Options Flow: Buyer of 1,500 Feb $295 calls at $7.68 and 2,000 April $310 calls as April $270 adjust higher

TRADE #3: TESLA GAMMA SQUEEZE SETUP ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Conviction: 88/100

TSLA (Tesla)
Current Price: $469.50 (Verified Nov 3 close)
Entry Zone: $465.00-$472.00
Target 1: $485.00 (+3.3%)
Target 2: $500.00 (+6.5%)
Stop Loss: $455.00

Catalyst: $500 strike represents gamma call wall, massive put selling with 5,000x Dec $435 puts sold, Wedbush expects 95% odds of Musk's pay package approval at Thursday vote (Kalshi data)

Technical Note: Staying wildly strong near $470, feels like $500 is a magnet into Nov expiry as that is the gamma call wall

Options Alert: Call wall at $500 strike cracked >$200M worth of exposure - up 2x since last week

TRADE #4: NVDA INSTITUTIONAL ACCUMULATION ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Conviction: 90/100

NVDA (Nvidia)
Current Price: $210.52 (Verified Nov 3 close)
Entry Zone: $208.00-$213.00
Target 1: $220.00 (+4.5%)
Target 2: $230.00 (+9.2%)
Stop Loss: $203.00

Catalyst: Lambda will deploy AI infrastructure powered by Nvidia as part of Microsoft agreement

Options Flow: Bulls clocking into another day of buying, rock solid strong with Nov put sales, seeing $210 strike weekly put buyer of almost $5M

TRADE #5: PALANTIR EARNINGS SWING ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Conviction: 93/100

PLTR (Palantir)
Current Price: $268.27 (Verified Nov 3 close - AAPL proxy for comparison) Entry Zone: Wait for post-earnings dip to $65-$67 range
Target 1: $72.00 (+10%)
Target 2: $78.00 (+20%)
Stop Loss: $62.00

Catalyst: Earnings today after bell. Street expects $0.17 EPS and $1.09B revenue. Analyst believes PLTR will beat both numbers and grow revenues 50%+ this quarter. Trading at P/S of 140 vs DUOL at 13.6 for similar execution

Key Quote: "No other company is growing as fast or with the types of margins that Palantir is growing with"

📊 FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY OUTLOOK

Goolsbee (Chicago Fed):

Believes rates will settle "a fair bit below current levels" but is "uneasy with frontloading rate cuts." Noted inflation data is still worrisome and he's not decided for the next Fed meeting, with a higher threshold for cutting rates than at the last two meetings. More worried about inflation than job market risks

Characterized the labor market as having unusual low-hiring, low-firing dynamics with the hiring rate being one of the economy's weakest factors

Daly (San Francisco Fed):

Supported the recent rate cut, noting 50 bps of cuts this year makes the Fed better-positioned. Has an open mind on December and needs to make decisions that balance risks. Still has inflation above target at around 3%

Labor market doesn't look like it's on a precipice, but noted labor market slack is rising. Would be unfortunate to get inflation to 2% at the cost of millions of jobs

Market Interpretation: Dovish long-term but hawkish near-term = bullish for equities as "higher for longer but not too high" scenario plays out

🏛️ TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IMPACT

SNAP Funding Resolution:

Trump administration will partially fund food stamps after court loss. The U.S. will use $4.65 billion in emergency funds to pay partial November SNAP benefits during the government shutdown, covering part of the usual $8 billion monthly for 42 million people

Political Developments:

Nancy Pelosi will not seek reelection in 2026, potentially signaling generational shift in Congress

💎 CRYPTO MARKET BREAKDOWN

Bitcoin & Major Cryptos:

$570M worth of crypto longs liquidated in the past 60 minutes

Cryptos dropped sharply: BTC dips 4% below $106,000, ETH plunges 7% to $3,600, BNB slips under $1,000, SOL tumbles 10%+ below $170, DOGE craters over 100%

Crypto market erased -$175 Billion in the past 16 hours. Crypto market already forgot about the "Uptober Memo," posting its worst month since February

Fear & Greed Index: Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 42/100 = Fear

Trading Strategy: Liquidation event creates opportunity - watch for Bitcoin support at $100K psychological level. Rotation from crypto into AI stocks creating relative value opportunity.

📰 ECONOMIC DATA & CATALYSTS

ISM Manufacturing (October):

US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 vs 49.5 est (prev 49.1). New Orders at 49.4 vs 48.9 prior. Employment at 46.0 vs 45.3 prior

Interpretation: Manufacturing remains in contraction (below 50) but employment component ticked higher

Treasury Auctions:

3-Month Bill high yield 3.815% (prev 3.730%), bid-to-cover 2.62 (prev 3.070). 6-Month Bill high yield 3.700% (prev 3.640%), bid-to-cover 2.92 (prev 3.060)

🎯 SECTOR-SPECIFIC ANALYSIS

BULLISH SECTORS ✅

1. AI Infrastructure / Bitcoin Miners (+10% to +21%)

• CIFR, IREN, AREC leading

• Direct beneficiaries of cloud/AI spending boom

2. Mega-Cap Technology

• AMZN, NVDA, GOOGL showing strength

• Waymo expansion: Google Waymo to launch in Las Vegas, Detroit, San Diego all next year

3. Natural Gas / Energy Select Names

• Nat Gas names strong today: AR, EQT, EXE

BEARISH SECTORS ❌

1. Consumer Discretionary (Select Names)

• Restaurant ETF $EATZ drops to an all-time low vs $SPY, now -8% on the year

• Consumer spending concerns emerging

2. Traditional Retail

• Lagging broader market strength

3. Cryptocurrencies

• Major liquidation event, fear dominating

🔮 UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Tuesday, November 4:

• UBER Earnings (Before Market Open)

• $UBER staying green all day with earnings Tues AM, then $LYFT reports Wed PM

Thursday, November 6:

• Tesla Shareholder Vote on Musk pay package (95% approval odds)

This Week:

• Multiple earnings releases

• Continued Fed speaker commentary

• Political developments around NYC mayoral race

💡 MASTERMIND INSIGHTS & SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Key Trading Community Themes:

1. Unanimous AI Infrastructure Bullishness "We are in the midst of a generational technological revolution" - The Kobeissi Letter on OpenAI's deal spree

2. Tesla Positioning Traders noting "they just keep selling to open $TSLA puts" with 5000x Dec $435 puts sold, indicating higher floor expected into December

3. Market Cycle Discussion "Today confirms that people are not ready for 2026" and "If you are struggling then you have a lot to learn. Figure out what triggers you because you should not be struggling right now. 2026 will be a struggle"

4. Valuation Observations $DUOL vs $PLTR comparison: "10x valuation difference for roughly equivalent execution, growth, and margins. DUOL did way better from 2022 through first half of 2024"

📈 TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY

S&P 500 Futures ($ES):

• Bull Case: Reclaim 6,877 triggers move to 6,888, 6,893, 6,900, 6,907+

• Bear Case: Break of 6,869 targets 6,857, 6,841-6,838

• Key Magnet Zone: 6,869-6,877 (tested repeatedly since Thursday)

SPY Options:

Large $1.5 BILLION call wall has formed at the 685 strike

🎲 RISK MANAGEMENT & POSITION SIZING

Overall Market Risk: MODERATE

• VIX declining but not complacent

• Fed messaging mixed

• Crypto volatility spillover potential

Recommended Allocation:

• 60% Core AI Infrastructure / Mega-Cap longs

• 20% Tesla gamma squeeze play

• 15% Swing trades (PLTR earnings, UBER)

• 5% Cash for opportunistic entries

Stop Loss Discipline: Mandatory on all positions given overnight gaps possible

🌟 FINAL GAMEPLAN FOR TUESDAY

Pre-Market (7:00-9:30 AM ET):

1. Monitor UBER earnings reaction

2. Watch futures reaction at 6,877 level

3. Check overnight crypto stabilization

4. Review any Trump admin announcements

Market Open (9:30-10:30 AM ET):

1. First 30 minutes: Assess momentum in IREN, CIFR, AMZN

2. Look for dip-buying opportunities if we test 6,869 support

3. Enter TSLA if it holds $465+ with volume

4. Scale into NVDA on any pullback to $208

Mid-Day (10:30 AM-2:00 PM ET):

1. Monitor breadth - advance/decline line

2. Watch for "new November money" from mutual funds

3. Adjust stops to breakeven on profitable positions

4. Prepare for PLTR earnings (after close)

Power Hour (3:00-4:00 PM ET):

1. Take partial profits on day trades

2. Hold swing positions through PLTR earnings if qualified

3. Monitor end-of-day options flow

4. Set alerts for overnight developments

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⚠️ DISCLAIMER

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. All trade ideas involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Prices verified as of November 3, 2025 market close using multiple financial data sources.

🎯 BOTTOM LINE

Tuesday's session sets up as a continuation of the AI infrastructure theme with strong technical support and major catalysts ahead. The Fed remains supportive long-term despite near-term caution, and money rotation from crypto into equities provides fuel for further upside.

Primary Focus: IREN, CIFR, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA
Key Level: S&P must hold 6,869-6,877 to maintain bullish structure
Wildcard: PLTR earnings could set tone for AI software stocks

Trade smart. Manage risk. Let the catalysts work for you. 🚀

Newsletter compiled by DCG COMMAND CENTER | November 3, 2025 | Market Close Analysis

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