⚡ CRITICAL THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE THE BELL

Market on Edge: S&P 500 closed Monday at 668.35 (-0.53%), with futures showing cautious optimism after Warren Buffett's shocking Alphabet stake revelation sparked a +5% rally in GOOGL. Meanwhile, Bitcoin crashed below $93,000 for the first time since April, triggering extreme fear across crypto markets.

Nvidia Earnings Wednesday: All eyes on NVDA ($186.71 current price, -1.9% Monday) reporting after hours Wednesday. Consensus expects EPS of $1.23 with revenue guidance that could make or break the entire AI trade.

Fed Rate Cut Odds Plummet: December rate cut probability dropped to just 47% (from near 100% weeks ago) as inflation concerns mount and government shutdown clouds economic data visibility.

Trump's Tariff U-Turn: Friday's executive order removing tariffs on 200+ food items (beef, coffee, bananas, tropical fruits) creates immediate winners in consumer staples and food sectors.

📊 MARKET SNAPSHOT - MONDAY NOVEMBER 17, 2025

Major Indices Close:

• SPY: $668.29 (-0.84%) | Support: $665 | Resistance: $675

• QQQ: $603.79 (-0.83%) | Key level: $600 psychological

• DIA: $467.49 (-0.91%)

• IWM: $234.43 (-1.28%)

• VIX: 21.21 (+6.97%) ⚠️ Fear spiking

Crypto Carnage:

• Bitcoin: $92,420 (-25% from October $126K ATH)

• Ethereum: $3,190 (-0.28%)

• Crypto Fear & Greed: 14/100 = EXTREME FEAR 📉

Futures (As of 2:00 AM ET):

• ES (S&P Futures): 6,740 (watching 6,723 support)

• NQ (Nasdaq Futures): Weak, following crypto correlation

• BTC Futures: $93,460 (-0.96%)

🎯 TOP CATALYST TRADES FOR TUESDAY

💎 TIER 1: BUFFETT TECH BET PLAY

$GOOGL - Alphabet Inc.

• Current Price: $286.80 (up from $276 Friday close)

• Monday Move: +3.3% on Berkshire 13F revelation

• Berkshire Stake: $4.9B (17.85M shares) = 10th largest holding

• Why It's Hot: First-ever Google purchase by Buffett/team signals AI confidence despite bubble fears

• Technical Setup: Breaking above $285 resistance, targeting $295-$300

• Entry Zone: $282-$287 on any early weakness

• Targets: $295 (+3%), $305 (+6%), $320 (+11%)

• Stop: $275 (-4%)

• Catalyst: Berkshire validation + relative AI value vs peers (25.5x P/E vs NVDA 41.9x)

Trade Rating: 9/10 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

🔥 TIER 2: TARIFF RELIEF WINNERS

Food Sector Breakouts (Trump Executive Order - Nov 14)

$TSN - Tyson Foods

• Current Price: $68.50

• Tariff Impact: Beef import tariffs removed (major cost savings)

• Entry: $67-$69

• Target: $75 (+9%), $80 (+17%)

• Stop: $65 (-5%)

• Trade Rating: 8/10 🥩

$HSY - Hershey

• Current Price: $185

• Tariff Impact: Cocoa tariff relief (cocoa at 50-year highs)

• Entry: $182-$186

• Target: $195 (+5%), $205 (+11%)

• Stop: $178 (-4%)

• Trade Rating: 8/10 🍫

$KDP - Keurig Dr Pepper

• Current Price: $37.80

• Tariff Impact: Coffee tariff removal (prices were up 21% YoY)

• Entry: $37-$38

• Target: $40 (+6%), $42 (+11%)

• Stop: $36 (-5%)

• Trade Rating: 7.5/10 ☕

$COCO - Vita Coco

• Current Price: $33.50

• Tariff Impact: Coconut products exempted

• BofA Upgrade: Buy rating post-tariff clarity

• Entry: $32-$34

• Target: $38 (+13%), $42 (+25%)

• Stop: $31 (-7%)

• Trade Rating: 8.5/10 🥥

⚡ TIER 3: NVIDIA EARNINGS SYMPATHY PLAYS

Pre-Earnings Positioning (Report Wednesday AH)

$NVDA - Nvidia Corp (THE EVENT)

• Current Price: $186.71

• Earnings: Wednesday Nov 19 after market close

• Expected EPS: $1.23 (consensus)

• Revenue Guidance: Market watching for $500B+ order book confirmation

• Historical Pattern: Beats expectations 19 of last 21 quarters

• Risk: Peter Thiel dumped entire stake (bearish signal)

• Options Flow: Heavy call buying in $200-$220 strikes

• Strategy: Wait for post-earnings reaction OR small pre-earnings long

• Entry: $185-$188 (aggressive)

• Target: $200 (+7%), $210 (+12%) post-earnings

• Stop: $180 (-4%)

• Trade Rating: 7/10 (High volatility risk)

Sympathy Plays:

$AMD - Advanced Micro Devices

• Current Price: $246.35

• Strategy: Moves with NVDA on AI sentiment

• Entry: $243-$248

• Target: $260 (+6%), $270 (+10%)

• Stop: $238 (-3%)

• Trade Rating: 7/10

$AVGO - Broadcom

• Current Price: $178

• AI Chip Exposure: Diversified AI play

• Entry: $175-$180

• Target: $190 (+7%), $200 (+12%)

• Stop: $172 (-3%)

• Trade Rating: 7.5/10

📈 TIER 4: RELATIVE STRENGTH LEADERS

$TSLA - Tesla

• Current Price: $409.22 (+4.8% Monday)

• Strength: Holding above $415 support while market weak

• Technical: Breaking out from consolidation

• Stifel Target: $508 (+20%)

• Entry: $415-$425

• Target: $440 (+4%), $460 (+9%), $508 (+20%)

• Stop: $410 (-3%)

• Trade Rating: 8/10 ⚡

$GRAL - Grail (Healthcare)

• Current Price: $28.50

• Monday Move: +10% on strong technicals

• Pattern: Bull flag formation

• Entry: $27-$29

• Target: $32 (+12%), $35 (+23%)

• Stop: $26 (-9%)

• Trade Rating: 7/10 🧬

🚫 BEARISH SETUPS & SHORT OPPORTUNITIES

Bitcoin & Crypto Stocks - Death Cross Active

$COIN - Coinbase

• Current Price: $195

• Technical: Rejected at Ripster 1HR MTF clouds

• Bitcoin Death Cross: 50-day below 200-day MA

• BTC Support: $93K critical (broke Monday)

• Strategy: Short rallies or buy puts

• Entry: $198-$202 (on bounces)

• Target: $180 (-8%), $170 (-13%)

• Stop: $208 (+4%)

• Trade Rating: 8/10 ⬇️

$MSTR - MicroStrategy

• Current Price: $310

• Bitcoin Correlation: Just bought 8,178 BTC at $102K avg

• Problem: BTC now $93K (-9% underwater)

• Entry: $315-$325 (short on strength)

• Target: $280 (-10%), $260 (-16%)

• Stop: $335 (+5%)

• Trade Rating: 7.5/10 📉

$CRCL, $BMNR - Crypto Stocks

• All showing heavy selling pressure

• Strategy: Avoid longs, consider puts on rallies

🌊 SECTOR ROTATION & MONEY FLOW ANALYSIS

HOT SECTORS (Bullish Rotation):

1. Consumer Staples (+0.04%) - Tariff relief driving rotation
   

   • Food manufacturers, beverage companies

   • Defensive positioning ahead of volatility

2. Utilities (+0.89%) - Flight to safety
   

   • Rate cut uncertainty = bond proxy appeal

   • $XLU leading defensive rotation

3. Healthcare (+0.51%) - Relative strength
   

   • $GRAL, biotech showing momentum

   • M&A activity picking up

COLD SECTORS (Bearish Pressure):

1. Technology (-1.21%) - Profit-taking ahead of NVDA
   

   • AI infrastructure concerns mounting

   • Valuation compression

2. Financials (-1.02%) - Rate cut odds falling
   

   • Banks pressured by yield curve dynamics

3. Energy (-0.91%) - Oil consolidating
   

   • Despite Middle East tensions

4. Materials (-0.39%) - Industrial slowdown fears
   

5. Consumer Discretionary (-0.50%) - Spending concerns
   

📰 WHITE HOUSE & POLITICAL IMPACT

Major Policy Moves Affecting Markets:

1. Government Shutdown Ended (Nov 12)

• 43-day shutdown finally resolved

• CRITICAL: October jobs & CPI data may NEVER BE RELEASED

• Fed "flying blind" on December rate decision

• Market impact: Increased uncertainty premium

2. Tariff Relief on Food (Nov 14) Executive Order Details:

• Removed tariffs on 200+ agricultural products

• Items: Beef, coffee, cocoa, bananas, tropical fruits, tomatoes, avocados, tea, spices

• Reason: Affordability crisis + Democratic electoral wins

• Market Winners: $TSN, $HSY, $KDP, $COCO, $HRL, $CAG, $KHC

• Impact: Immediate cost relief for food manufacturers/retailers

3. Trump "Tariff Dividend" Proposal

• $2,000 checks for "working families"

• Status: Requires congressional approval

• Treasury Sec Bessent: Confirmed legislative pathway needed

• Market Impact: If passed = consumption boost

💰 TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES

Beneficiaries of Policy Shifts:

$WMT - Walmart

• Food price relief = margin expansion

• Entry: $99-$101

• Target: $106 (+5%)

• Trade Rating: 7/10

$COST - Costco

• Bulk food beneficiary

• Entry: $975-$985

• Target: $1,020 (+4%)

• Trade Rating: 7/10

$CAG - Conagra Brands

• Multiple food categories exempted

• Entry: $28-$29

• Target: $32 (+10%)

• Trade Rating: 7.5/10

🌐 CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET BREAKDOWN

Bitcoin Bloodbath Continues:

BTC Current State:

• Price: $94,896 (down from $126,251 October ATH)

• 24hr Range: $93,000 - $96,500

• Decline: -25% from peak in 41 days

• Market Cap Lost: -$1.2 TRILLION

Technical Death Cross:

• 50-day MA crossed below 200-day MA

• Classic bearish signal

• Previous death crosses led to further 15-30% declines

Key Levels to Watch:

• Critical Support: $90,000 psychological

• Breakdown Level: $93,000 (broke Monday)

• Resistance: $98,000-$100,000

• Next Support: $85,000 (on-chain cost basis)

Why Bitcoin is Crashing:

1. ETF Outflows: Record selling from spot Bitcoin ETFs

2. Macro Risk-Off: Trump tariff uncertainty

3. Long Liquidations: $800M liquidated in 24hrs

4. Technical Breakdown: Death cross triggered

5. Profit Taking: 30%+ gains since January erased

Altcoin Carnage:

• ETH: $3,190 (holding $3,000 support barely)

• SOL: $141.73 (+1.21%) - showing relative strength

• Most Alts: Down 30-50% from peaks

Contrarian Crypto Plays:

Privacy Coins Rising:

• $ZEC (Zcash): Near ATH of $671 (bucking trend)

• Strategy: Alternative to mainstream crypto weakness

Japan Regulatory Shift:

• FSA considering lower crypto tax rates

• 105 listed assets affected

• Potential Q1 2026 catalyst

📊 KEY ECONOMIC DATA THIS WEEK

Tuesday, November 18:

• No major releases scheduled

• Focus on Fed speakers & NVDA buildup

Wednesday, November 19:

• NVIDIA EARNINGS (After Market Close) 🎯

• Fed Minutes (2:00 PM ET)

• Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET)

Thursday, November 20:

• Nonfarm Payrolls Prep (Friday release)

• Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)

• Philadelphia Fed Index (8:30 AM ET)

Friday, November 21:

• Jobs Report (if available post-shutdown)

Data Gap Problem:

• October CPI & Jobs = likely never released

• Creates Fed decision uncertainty

• Markets pricing in higher "unknown" risk premium

🎲 FUTURES & INDEX LEVELS

S&P 500 Futures ($ES) Key Levels:

Current: 6,740

Upside Targets:

• 6,755 (first resistance)

• 6,764 (multi-day magnet - Adam Mancini)

• 6,772 (target #2)

• 6,777 (extended target)

• 6,796 (breakout level)

Downside Supports:

• 6,740 (Sunday low - critical)

• 6,723 (major support)

• 6,707 (breakdown level)

• 6,701 (capitulation zone)

Trading Strategy:

• Failed Breakdown Pattern: Watch 6,740 reclaim for long entries

• Targets: 6,764 on reclaim (Adam Mancini's magnet level)

• Stop: Below 6,723 = bearish break

💡 OPTIONS FLOW & DARK POOL ACTIVITY

Notable Unusual Activity:

$SPY Options:

• Put/Call Ratio: Elevated fear

• 670 GEX Strike: Critical support level

• Whale Activity: Large put positions added near highs (profitable)

$NVDA Options:

• Massive call buying in Nov 22 expiry

• Strikes: $200, $210, $220

• Implied Vol: 35% (elevated pre-earnings)

$TSLA Options:

• Put Sellers: Dec 12 $415 puts (5,000+ contracts)

• June $375 puts sold at $48 (bullish institutional positioning)

• August $390 puts heavy selling

$UBER Options:

• Put/Call: 12k/52k (heavily skewed bullish)

• Unusual call volume

🎯 DAILY TRADING PLAN - TUESDAY SESSION

Pre-Market (6:30-9:30 AM ET):

1. Monitor GOOGL momentum (Berkshire headlines)

2. Watch Bitcoin for $93K hold/break

3. Food stocks (TSN, HSY, KDP) gap analysis

4. ES futures - does 6,740 hold?

Market Open (9:30-10:00 AM):

Watch for:

• 10 AM rejection pattern (Ripster concept)

• GOOGL follow-through or fade

• VIX behavior around 21 level

• TSLA strength continuation

Mid-Day Strategy (10:00 AM-2:00 PM):

• Inside Days = Chop (Ripster warning)

• Don't overtrade

• Protect gains on morning moves

• Look for Failed Breakdown patterns

Power Hour (3:00-4:00 PM):

• NVDA positioning ahead of Wednesday

• Smart money accumulation patterns

• VIX expiration dynamics (tomorrow)

🔥 HIGH-CONVICTION TRADE SUMMARY

BEST RISK/REWARD SETUPS FOR TUESDAY:

1. $GOOGL Long (9/10)

• Buffett backing + relative AI value

• Entry: $282-$287

• Target: $295-$305

• Stop: $275

2. $TSN Long (8/10)

• Tariff tailwind immediate

• Entry: $67-$69

• Target: $75-$80

• Stop: $65

3. $COIN Short/Puts (8/10)

• Bitcoin death cross active

• Entry: $198-$202

• Target: $180-$170

• Stop: $208

4. $TSLA Long (8/10)

• Relative strength leader

• Entry: $415-$425

• Target: $440-$460

• Stop: $410

5. $HSY Long (8/10)

• Cocoa tariff relief

• Entry: $182-$186

• Target: $195-$205

• Stop: $178

⚠️ RISKS & HEADWINDS TO WATCH

1. Fed Rate Cut Odds Collapsing:

• Now 47% probability for December (was 100%)

• No cut = potential market selloff

• "Driving in the fog" - Fed Chair Powell

2. NVDA Earnings Wednesday:

• Make-or-break for entire AI trade

• Peter Thiel dumped stake (bearish)

• Guidance more important than beat

3. Bitcoin Capitulation Risk:

• $90K psychological support next

• Death cross historically leads to more downside

• Leverage still high (liquidation cascade risk)

4. Economic Data Blackout:

• October CPI & Jobs may never publish

• Fed decision uncertainty elevated

• Markets hate unknowns

5. Valuation Concerns:

• S&P 500 P/E: Mid-20s

• AI stocks: 40-50x+ forward earnings

• "AI Bubble" narrative gaining traction

6. Government Funding Cliff:

• Current funding expires January 30, 2026

• Shutdown risk in 78 days

• Market overhang

📚 MASTERMIND INSIGHTS & SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Key Trader Observations:

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4):

• "Failed Breakdown" expert nailing ES moves

• 6,764 multi-day magnet level repeatedly hit

• Protect gains, hold runners strategy

• Today's Levels: 6,740 reclaim = long trigger

Ripster (@ripster47):

• "Inside Day = Stay Away" (choppy Tuesday likely)

• 10 AM rejection concept critical

• VIX 20 bounce playing out

• Lithium sector showing insane strength: $ALB, $LAC, $LAR

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter):

• Massive stimulus global wave noted:

  • US: $2K checks proposed

  • Japan: $110B package

  • China: $1.4T stimulus

  • Fed ending QT December 1

• Inflation wave incoming? 320+ global rate cuts

Data Driven Investing (@DataDInvesting):

• Buy stocks at 52-week lows with ATH fundamentals

• Personal finance discipline before investing

• $SOFI institutional ownership at ATH (55.56%)

OnlyOptionsTrades (@OnlyOTrades):

• $NFLX 10-for-1 split completed (don't panic)

• Options flow analysis on major moves

Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv):

• Fear & Greed Index: 27/100 (Fear territory)

• VIX 20 bounce confirmation

🎪 SECTOR HEATMAP - TUESDAY OUTLOOK

BULLISH (🟢 GREEN ZONES):

• Consumer Staples: Tariff relief tailwind

• Healthcare: Relative strength + M&A

• Utilities: Defensive rotation

• Select Food Stocks: Policy winners

NEUTRAL (🟡 YELLOW ZONES):

• Industrials: Mixed signals

• Real Estate: Rate uncertainty

• Communication Services: Google strength offset by others

BEARISH (🔴 RED ZONES):

• Technology: Profit-taking pre-NVDA

• Crypto Stocks: Death cross active

• Financials: Rate cut odds falling

• Energy: Consolidation mode

🚀 SWING TRADE WATCHLIST (3-7 Day Holds)

1. $GOOGL - Berkshire momentum play 2. $TSN - Tariff relief swing 3. $TSLA - Breakout confirmation 4. $HSY - Cocoa cost relief 5. $COCO - Small-cap tariff winner 6. $GRAL - Healthcare momentum 7. $ALB - Lithium sector strength

SHORT CANDIDATES: 1. $COIN - Crypto death cross 2. $MSTR - Bitcoin correlation 3. $CRCL - Crypto weakness

📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - KEY CHARTS

SPY Daily:

• 50-day MA: ~$670 (testing)

• 200-day MA: ~$650 (major support)

• Pattern: Consolidation after rejection from $690 highs

• Outlook: Need to reclaim $675 for bullish continuation

NVDA Weekly:

• Triangle consolidation ahead of earnings

• Support: $180

• Resistance: $195

• Breakout level: $200 (confirming AI bull trend)

BTC Daily:

• Death cross: 50-day < 200-day

• Breaking major support at $93K

• Next support: $85K (realized price)

• Resistance: $100K psychological

VIX:

• Current: 21.21 (elevated)

• Breaking above 20 = fear mode

• Wednesday expiration = potential compression

• Watch for VIX calls monetization

🎓 EDUCATIONAL CORNER

What is a "Death Cross"?

When a security's 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average, creating a bearish technical signal. Bitcoin just triggered this pattern.

Failed Breakdown Pattern (Adam Mancini Strategy):

1. Market sweeps below key support

2. Weak hands get stopped out

3. Price immediately reclaims support

4. Creates high-probability long entry

5. Target previous resistance levels

10 AM Rejection Concept (Ripster):

First hour of trading often shows false moves. 10 AM reversal patterns are statistically significant and worth watching.

Inside Day Trading:

When current day's high/low is within previous day's range = consolidation. Usually choppy, best to reduce position sizing.

🌟 TRADE DISCIPLINE REMINDERS

From Data Driven Investing's Personal Rules:

1. 12-month emergency fund before aggressive investing

2. Fully fund HSA & take 401k match

3. Never carry credit card debt

4. Save 3x cost before major purchases

5. Save 2x cost before vacations

Trading Rules for Tuesday:

1. Don't chase - use limit orders

2. Inside day = lower position size

3. Protect gains from morning moves

4. Watch for failed breakdown setups

5. NVDA Wednesday = reduce overnight risk

6. Stop losses are mandatory, not optional

🎯 FINAL TUESDAY GAMEPLAN

Primary Strategy:

ROTATION PLAY - Exit weakness (crypto, mega-cap tech), enter strength (food stocks, GOOGL, relative strength leaders)

Secondary Strategy:

NVDA PREPARATION - Either side-step entirely or position small for Wednesday reaction

Risk Management:

• Cash position: 20-30% ahead of NVDA

• Stop losses tight (2-4%)

• Profit targets: 5-10% on swing entries

• VIX above 21 = reduce size

Opportunity Matrix:

HIGH PRIORITY:

• GOOGL long (Buffett boost)

• Food sector longs (tariff relief)

• TSLA continuation

MEDIUM PRIORITY:

• NVDA sympathy plays

• Healthcare strength

• Failed breakdown ES setups

LOW PRIORITY/AVOID:

• Crypto longs (death cross active)

• Chasing tech on down days

• Overtrading inside day range

🔔 ALERTS & LEVELS TO WATCH

Market Triggers:

• SPY below $665: Breakdown mode

• SPY above $675: Bullish continuation

• VIX above 25: Major fear spike

• Bitcoin below $90K: Capitulation risk

• GOOGL above $295: Breakout confirmation

Individual Stock Alerts:

• NVDA $195 break = pre-earnings strength

• TSLA $430 break = accelerating uptrend

• COIN $190 break = crypto capitulation

• TSN $72 break = tariff play working

💼 PORTFOLIO POSITIONING GUIDANCE

Aggressive Traders (5+ trades/day):

• Scalp failed breakdowns in ES futures

• GOOGL day-trade momentum

• Food stocks opening range breakouts

• AVOID crypto stocks (too volatile)

Swing Traders (3-7 day holds):

• 40% GOOGL/TSLA/food stocks

• 30% cash (NVDA uncertainty)

• 20% shorts (COIN, MSTR)

• 10% speculative (GRAL, ALB)

Position Traders (weeks-months):

• Build GOOGL position (Berkshire validation)

• Add food sector on weakness

• Avoid crypto until death cross resolves

• Cash heavy until NVDA clarity

Conservative/IRA Accounts:

• SPY/QQQ core (reduce size)

• Add XLP (consumer staples)

• XLU (utilities) defensive

• Cash 40%+ until volatility subsides

🎊 CLOSING THOUGHTS

Market Theme: "Show Me" mentality into NVDA earnings. Buffett's Google bet provides confidence, but broader market needs AI trade validation Wednesday.

Best Opportunities: Policy-driven food sector plays + relative strength leaders like TSLA/GOOGL

Biggest Risks: NVDA disappointment + Bitcoin capitulation cascade

Tuesday Personality: Inside day grind - lower volume, choppier action. Preserve capital for Wednesday's fireworks.

Week Ahead: All roads lead to NVDA Wednesday AH. Position size accordingly.

🚨 BREAKING UPDATE SECTION

(Will update if major overnight developments)

As of 2:00 AM ET Tuesday:

• Asian markets mixed

• European futures slightly green

• Bitcoin holding $94K (barely)

• GOOGL pre-market: +0.5% continued strength

• No major overnight catalysts

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⚖️ DISCLAIMER

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All trades carry risk. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence. Trade prices verified as of November 17, 2025 market close. Verify current prices before executing any trades.

Price Verification Sources:

• SPY: StockAnalysis.com, Yahoo Finance

• Bitcoin: CoinMarketCap, YCharts

• NVDA: Investing.com, Robinhood

• All prices cross-referenced with multiple data providers

🎯 LET'S DOMINATE TUESDAY!

Remember: The best trade is sometimes no trade. Wednesday's NVDA earnings will create better setups. Patience pays.

Key Quote: "In what world is another wave of inflation not on its way?" - The Kobeissi Letter (Global stimulus exceeds $4T+)

Trade Safe. Trade Smart. Trade Profitably. 💰

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