🚀 FEDERAL RESERVE SHOWDOWN: Markets Brace for Powell's Final Cut Before Trump 2.0 Era

⚡ IMMEDIATE ACTION ITEMS FOR THURSDAY'S OPEN

🎯 Key Things to Know Going Into Tomorrow:

1. Fed Decision at 2:00 PM ET - 97% probability of 25bps cut, but guidance is the real catalyst

2. Space Infrastructure Boom - SpaceX/Blue Origin data center race igniting satellite stocks

3. Autonomous Vehicle Revolution - Waymo hits 14M rides, targeting 1M weekly by 2026

4. Political Catalyst Window - Trump announces Fed Chair pick "within 1-2 weeks" per Hassett

5. China Trade Rebalancing - US seeing "more balanced trade" per Trade Rep Greer

🔥 BREAKING MARKET-MOVING NEWS (After 11 AM EST)

SPACE & SATELLITE SECTOR EXPLOSION 🛰️

Impact: MAJOR BULLISH CATALYST****WSJ EXCLUSIVE: Bezos & Musk Racing to Build Orbital Data Centers

• $RKLB Rocket Lab: Currently $56.68 (verified Dec 10, 2025 close: $54.42, after-hours surge to $56.68)

  • Entry Zone: $54.50-$57.00

  • Target 1: $62.00 (+9.4%)

  • Target 2: $70.00 (+23.5%)

  • Catalyst: Blue Origin orbital data center development + SpaceX $800B valuation news creating sector momentum

  • Rating: 9/10 HIGH CONVICTION

• $ASTS AST SpaceMobile: Currently $72.84 (verified Dec 10, 2025 close: $74.00, slight pullback)

  • Entry Zone: $72.00-$75.00

  • Target 1: $82.00 (+12.6%)

  • Target 2: $95.00 (+30.4%)

  • Catalyst: Space data center race benefiting entire satellite infrastructure sector

  • Rating: 8.5/10 HIGH CONVICTION

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE DISRUPTION 🚗

Impact: MAJOR BEARISH FOR UBER, BULLISH FOR GOOGL****Waymo Dominance Crushing Uber:

• Waymo completed 14M paid rides in 2025, targeting 1M rides/week by late 2026
  

• Expanding to 20 new cities in 2026 including Tokyo and London
  

• $UBER (verified Dec 10, 2025: Trading $84-$85, down 4-5% from $89.07 close)
  

  • BEARISH TRADE

  • Entry: $82.00-$84.00 (SHORT or PUT positions)

  • Target 1: $78.00 (-7.1%)

  • Target 2: $72.00 (-14.1%)

  • Rating: 8/10 HIGH CONVICTION SHORT

• $GOOGL Alphabet (verified Dec 10, 2025: $317.07)
  

  • Entry Zone: $315.00-$320.00

  • Target 1: $330.00 (+4.1%)

  • Target 2: $345.00 (+8.8%)

  • Catalyst: Waymo dominance + Gemini 3 AI momentum

  • Rating: 9/10 HIGH CONVICTION

FEDERAL RESERVE HAWK SIGNALS 🦅

Impact: MAJOR RATE CUT WITH HAWKISH 2026 GUIDANCE

White House Sr. Adviser Hassett Pre-Fed Statements:

• "Fed has plenty of room to cut rates"

• "Probably will need to do some more"

• "25 bps cut would be small step in right direction"

• "Stronger data could support 50 basis point cut"

• Trump announces Fed Chair pick "within 1-2 weeks"

Market Implications:

• 97% probability of 25bps cut TODAY at 2:00 PM ET

• Real risk: Hawkish 2026 dot plot (only 1 cut projected)

• Powell's final press conference before Trump 2.0 transition

CHINA TRADE REBALANCING 🇨🇳

Impact: MODERATE BULLISH - SECTORAL ROTATION

US Trade Rep Greer at Atlantic Council:

• "US goal with China is more balanced and managed trade"

• "Trump focused on constructive ties with China"

• "US seeing more balance in goods trade with China"

• "Wider trade deficit tied to tariff front-running"

Switzerland Tariff Relief:

• US applying 15% tariff ceiling (down from higher rates)

• Retroactive to November 14, 2025

• Pharma/chemicals/gold/coffee exemptions remain

📊 MARKET SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT (Post-Market December 10, 2025)

Major Indices (As of Close)

• S&P 500: 6,832.25 (+0.03%) - Consolidating at highs

• Nasdaq: 23,231 (-0.28%) - Tech profit-taking ahead of Fed

• Russell 2K: 252.20 (-0.32%) - Small caps pausing

• Dow: 47,834 (-0.40%) - Defensive rotation

Fear & Greed Indicators

• CNN Fear & Greed: 33/100 (FEAR)

• Crypto Fear & Greed: 26/100 (FEAR)

• VIX: Elevated ahead of Fed decision

🎯 HIGH-PROBABILITY TRADES FOR THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2025

SPACE/SATELLITE INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM 🚀

1. $RKLB Rocket Lab ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Current: $56.68 (+8% after hours surge)

• Entry: $54.50-$57.00

• Stop: $51.00

• Target 1: $62.00 (+9.4%)

• Target 2: $70.00 (+23.5%)

• Timeframe: 2-4 weeks

• Catalyst:

  • WSJ exclusive on orbital data center race

  • SpaceX $800B valuation creating sector halo

  • Blue Origin hiring orbital AI specialists

  • Neutron rocket fairing qualification complete

• Rating: 9/10 - STRONG BUY

2. $ASTS AST SpaceMobile ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Current: $72.84 (slight pullback from $74.00)

• Entry: $72.00-$75.00

• Stop: $68.00

• Target 1: $82.00 (+12.6%)

• Target 2: $95.00 (+30.4%)

• Timeframe: 3-6 weeks

• Catalyst:

  • Space infrastructure theme benefiting entire sector

  • Q4 revenue guidance $50M-$75M

  • $1B commercial revenue commitments

  • Government contracts under exploration

• Rating: 8.5/10 - BUY

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE DISRUPTION 🤖

3. $UBER SHORT/PUT ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Current: $84.00-$85.00 (down 4-5% today)

• Entry: $82.00-$84.00 (SHORT or PUTS)

• Target 1: $78.00 (-7.1%)

• Target 2: $72.00 (-14.1%)

• Timeframe: 2-4 weeks

• Catalyst:

  • Waymo hitting 14M annual rides, targeting 1M weekly by 2026

  • 20 new Waymo cities in 2026 (Tokyo, London included)

  • Amazon expanding fresh delivery (competing with Uber Eats)

  • Analyst Ross Gerber: "Uber Is Cooked"

• Rating: 8/10 - HIGH CONVICTION SHORT

Options Strategy:

• Jan 17, 2026 $80 PUTS (30-45 DTE)

• Dec 27, 2025 $82 PUTS (weekly)

4. $GOOGL Alphabet ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Current: $317.07

• Entry: $315.00-$320.00

• Stop: $308.00

• Target 1: $330.00 (+4.1%)

• Target 2: $345.00 (+8.8%)

• Timeframe: 4-8 weeks

• Catalyst:

  • Waymo revolution crushing competitors

  • Gemini 3 AI gaining traction (346M MAUs, +30%)

  • Web traffic doubling since August

  • Citizens JMP $340 price target

• Rating: 9/10 - STRONG BUY

FED DECISION PLAYS 💰

5. FOMC Volatility Strategy

• Pre-Decision (Before 2:00 PM ET):

  • Reduce positions 30-50%

  • Raise cash for post-decision deployment

  • Avoid new initiations until after Powell speaks

• Post-Decision Scenarios:

SCENARIO A: Dovish Cut (Low Probability)

• Powell hints at more 2026 cuts

• BUY: $QQQ calls, $TQQQ, growth tech

• Targets: $SPY $700, $QQQ $540

SCENARIO B: Hawkish Cut (High Probability - 70%)

• 25bps cut but only 1-2 cuts projected for 2026

• Initial Dip: -1% to -2% selloff

• Recovery Play: Buy the dip in quality names

• Targets: Defensive rotation into value

SCENARIO C: Hold (Very Low Probability - 3%)

• Market chaos, -3% to -5% selloff

• BUY: $SQQQ, $UVXY, treasury ETFs

ORACLE EARNINGS TONIGHT 💻6. $ORCL Oracle ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Current: $221.40 (verified Dec 10, 2025)

• Earnings: TODAY after close (5:00 PM ET)

• Expected EPS: $1.64-$1.65 (up 12% YoY)

• Options Implied Move: ±10% ($199-$243 range)

BULL CASE (60% probability):

• Entry: $220-$225 (PRE-earnings or on dip)

• Target 1: $245 (+10.7%)

• Target 2: $275 (+24.3%)

• Catalyst:

  • $300B OpenAI/Stargate contract validation

  • OCI demand diversification (META, xAI ramping)

  • TD Cowen $400 price target

  • 27 analysts rate "Strong Buy"

BEAR CASE (40% probability):

• Concerns over OpenAI concentration risk

• Debt-driven capex buildout ($billions raised)

• Negative FCF short-term

• Down 35-40% from September $345 highs

Strategy:

• Conservative: Wait for post-earnings clarity

• Aggressive: Small position $220-$225, add on confirmation

• Rating: 7.5/10 - HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD

Sympathy Plays (If ORCL beats):

• $PLTR Palantir (AI infrastructure)

• $CRWD CrowdStrike (cloud security)

• $DELL Dell Technologies (hardware partner)

💎 CRYPTO MARKET OVERVIEW### BITCOIN & CRYPTO ₿

Current Status: BTC $94,330 (verified Dec 10, 2025, +4.86%)

Key Developments:

• Trading above $92,000 ahead of Fed decision

• Standard Chartered SLASHED 2025 target: $200K → $100K

• Fear & Greed: 26/100 (EXTREME FEAR)

• Corporate treasury buying phase ending (MicroStrategy era fading)

• Bank of America now recommending 1-4% crypto allocation

• SpaceX IPO ($1.5T valuation) holds significant BTC/DOGE

Crypto Fear & Greed: 26/100 (FEAR) - contrarian buy signal?

7. $BTC Bitcoin ⭐⭐⭐

• Current: $94,330

• Support: $90,000-$92,000

• Resistance: $100,000-$104,000

• Entry Zone: $90,000-$94,000

• Target 1: $100,000 (+6.0%)

• Target 2: $111,500 (+18.2%)

• Timeframe: 2-4 weeks

• Catalyst:

  • Fed rate cut expected today

  • Extreme fear = contrarian buy opportunity

  • ETF demand stabilizing

  • Post-halving supply compression

• Risk: Hawkish Fed could trigger $80K retest

• Rating: 7/10 - MODERATE BUY (on dips)

🏛️ WHITE HOUSE & POLITICAL CATALYSTS

TRUMP 2.0 TRANSITION ACCELERATING

Fed Chair Announcement Coming:

• Trump announces Fed Chair pick "within 1-2 weeks" per Hassett

• Hassett himself "honored to be on candidate list"

• Powell's term ends May 2026

• Market preparing for more aggressive rate cut cycle under new chair

Immigration & Deportations:

• 2.2M illegals deported so far

• DHS creates Boeing 737 deportation fleet

• Rent prices dropping, jobs opening for citizens

• 9,500 truck drivers removed for failing English tests

Trade Policy Updates:

• US-China trade "more balanced and managed" per Trade Rep Greer

• USMCA review: "could be exited, revised or renegotiated"

• Switzerland gets 15% tariff ceiling (retroactive relief)

• Non-auto rules of origin under review

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth:

• Ex-Navy SEAL Robert O'Neill defends nomination

• Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar introducing impeachment legislation

📈 SECTOR ROTATION & MARKET THEMES

ADVANCING SECTORS 🟢

1. SPACE/SATELLITE (+8% to +10% today)
   

   • $RKLB, $ASTS leading

   • Orbital data center theme exploding

2. AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES (Mixed)
   

   • $GOOGL winning (+Waymo dominance)

   • $UBER losing (-5% on disruption fears)

3. AI INFRASTRUCTURE (Stable to higher)
   

   • $GOOGL Gemini gaining traction

   • $ORCL earnings tonight (high volatility expected)

   • $PLTR, $CRWD sympathy plays

4. INDUSTRIALS (+0.91% sector)
   

   • Benefiting from defense spending

   • Infrastructure buildout themes

5. HEALTH CARE (+0.74%)
   

   • Defensive rotation ahead of Fed

6. FINANCIALS (+0.68%)
   

   • Rate cut expectations supportive

DECLINING SECTORS 🔴

1. UTILITIES (-0.19%)
   

   • Rate sensitivity

2. TECHNOLOGY (-0.30% Nasdaq)
   

   • Profit-taking ahead of Fed

   • Valuation concerns

3. COMMUNICATION SERVICES (+0.13%)
   

   • Mixed, but under pressure

🎲 FOMC DECISION PLAYBOOK (2:00 PM ET TODAY)

Pre-Decision Strategy (Before 2:00 PM):

• Reduce risk 30-50%

• Raise cash for post-decision deployment

• Avoid new positions until clarity

Post-Decision Scenarios:

SCENARIO A: Dovish Cut (20% probability)

• 25bps cut + dovish 2026 guidance (3+ cuts projected)

• Market reaction: +1% to +2% rally

• BUY: $QQQ calls, $TQQQ, growth tech, crypto

• Targets: $SPY $700+, $QQQ $540+, $BTC $100K+

SCENARIO B: Hawkish Cut (70% probability) ⭐ MOST LIKELY

• 25bps cut + hawkish 2026 guidance (only 1-2 cuts)

• Initial reaction: -1% to -2% selloff

• Recovery within 24-48 hours: Buy the dip

• Strategy: Wait for bottom, then accumulate quality names

• Targets: $SPY $675-$680 (dip), then $695-$700 (recovery)

SCENARIO C: No Cut (3% probability)

• Fed holds rates at 4.00%

• Market chaos: -3% to -5% immediate selloff

• BUY: $SQQQ, $UVXY, $TLT (treasury bonds)

• Short everything risk-on

Powell Press Conference Keys (2:30 PM ET):

• Tone on 2026 rate path (most important)

• Inflation vs. unemployment trade-off

• Labor market assessment

• Comments on Trump policies (tariffs, deportations)

💼 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2025

10:30 AM ET: EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates WoW 11:00 AM ET: Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Dec) 11:30 AM ET: 17-Week Bill Auction 12:00 PM ET: Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2:00 PM ET: FOMC RATE DECISION 🚨 (MAIN EVENT) 2:00 PM ET: Interest Rate Projection - Longer 2:00 PM ET: Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr 2:00 PM ET: Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr 2:30 PM ET: POWELL PRESS CONFERENCE 🎤

After Hours: $ORCL Oracle Earnings (5:00 PM ET call)

🎯 TRADING PLAN FOR THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2025

MORNING SESSION (9:30 AM - 12:00 PM):

1. Monitor pre-market action in space stocks ($RKLB, $ASTS)

2. Scale into positions at support levels

3. Watch $UBER for potential bounce or further breakdown

4. Avoid aggressive positions ahead of Fed

PRE-FED SESSION (12:00 PM - 2:00 PM):

1. Reduce exposure by 30-50%

2. Raise cash for post-decision deployment

3. Set alerts for key levels

4. Review stop losses

FED DECISION (2:00 PM):

1. Wait for initial volatility to subside (15-30 min)

2. Assess Powell's tone in press conference

3. Deploy cash based on scenario (see above)

EVENING SESSION (4:00 PM - 8:00 PM):

1. $ORCL earnings reaction (5:00 PM call)

2. Position for Friday based on Fed outcome

3. Review sympathy plays for winning/losing sectors

🔥 TOP WATCHLIST FOR THURSDAY

IMMEDIATE ACTION:

1. $RKLB - BUY $54.50-$57.00 (9/10 conviction)

2. $ASTS - BUY $72.00-$75.00 (8.5/10 conviction)

3. $GOOGL - BUY $315-$320 (9/10 conviction)

4. $UBER - SHORT/PUTS $82-$84 (8/10 conviction)

WAIT FOR CLARITY:

5. $ORCL - Earnings tonight (7.5/10 high risk/reward)

6. $BTC - Buy dips to $90-$92K (7/10 moderate buy)

7. Fed-dependent positions - Deploy post-2:00 PM

SYMPATHY PLAYS:

• If $ORCL beats: $PLTR, $CRWD, $DELL

• If $RKLB continues: $LUNR, $PL, $AVAV

• If $GOOGL Waymo momentum: Short more $UBER, $LYFT

🌟 MONEY ROTATION ANALYSIS

FROM → TO:

• Big Tech → Space/Satellite Infrastructure

• Rideshare → Autonomous Vehicles

• Traditional Cloud → AI Infrastructure

• Growth → Defensive (temporary, Fed-related)

Post-Fed Expected Rotation:

• If Dovish: Back into growth/tech aggressively

• If Hawkish: Stay defensive initially, then rotate back within 48 hours

📊 S&P FUTURES KEY LEVELS (ES)

Current: 6,879 (slight up from close)

Support Levels:

• 6,847 - Today's magnet (key pivot)

• 6,834 - Overnight low (swept and bounced)

• 6,800 - Major psychological support

Resistance Levels:

• 6,857 - Hit 2x today (immediate resistance)

• 6,864-6,868 - Target 2 zone

• 6,877 - Next upside target

• 6,900 - Round number resistance

Strategy: Chop expected until Fed decision, then directional move

⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT RULES

1. Size Down ahead of Fed (30-50% reduction)

2. Use Stops - No exceptions today

3. Don't Fight Fed - Let decision play out

4. Scale In - Don't YOLO into positions

5. Keep Powder Dry - Best opportunities come POST-volatility

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🏁 FINAL VERDICT: THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2025

THEME OF THE DAY: "Fed Decision Dominates, But Space Race Steals Show"

MARKET SENTIMENT: Cautiously optimistic with defensive positioning

TOP CONVICTION TRADES:

1. $RKLB Long - Space infrastructure boom (9/10)

2. $GOOGL Long - Waymo + Gemini momentum (9/10)

3. $UBER Short - Disruption accelerating (8/10)

KEY CATALYSTS:

1. Fed decision at 2:00 PM ET (97% chance of 25bps cut)

2. Powell press conference at 2:30 PM ET (tone is everything)

3. $ORCL earnings tonight after close (10% implied move)

4. Space/satellite sector explosion on WSJ orbital data center news

RISK FACTORS:

• Hawkish Fed guidance could trigger -2% selloff

• $ORCL earnings miss could hurt AI infrastructure theme

• Geopolitical developments (Ukraine tanker attack, China tensions)

BOTTOM LINE: Position conservatively ahead of Fed, then deploy aggressively based on Powell's tone. The space/satellite theme is real and sustainable beyond today's volatility. Waymo's autonomous vehicle dominance is accelerating Uber's decline. Oracle earnings tonight will set tone for AI infrastructure into year-end.

May your stops be tight and your profits run! 🚀💰

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence.

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