📊 KEY MARKET SNAPSHOT - DECEMBER 1, 2025

S&P 500 (SPY): $680.24 (-0.36%)  

NASDAQ: $617.39 (-0.30%)  

Bitcoin (BTC): $85,800 (-5.9% / 24hrs)  

VIX (Fear Index): 17.06 (+4.34%)  

10-Year Treasury: 4.00% (1-month low)  

Oil (WTI): $59.32 (+1.32%)

🔥 BREAKING NEWS THAT'S MOVING MARKETS RIGHT NOW

Trump Fed Chair Announcement Imminent - Kevin Hassett at 79% Odds

The biggest story hitting markets today: President Trump confirmed he's made his Fed Chair pick and will announce "very soon" - possibly December 2-3. 

- Kevin Hassett now trading at 79% odds on Kalshi prediction markets (up from 40% last week)

- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says "very good chance" announcement comes before Christmas

- Hassett publicly stated he'd "be cutting rates right now" if he were Fed Chair

- Market reaction: 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 4.00% (lowest in a month) on dovish expectations

TRADING IMPACT: A Hassett Fed means faster rate cuts, weaker dollar, and potential rocket fuel for stocks and crypto in 2026. This is the most significant Fed policy shift since Powell's appointment.

Bitcoin Carnage: $86K Breakdown Triggers $600M in Liquidations

- BTC crashed from $91K to $85,800 (-32% from October ATH of $126K)

- $600-700 million in leveraged long positions liquidated in 24 hours

- Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index plummets to 24 (Extreme Fear)

- Total crypto market cap down 5% to $3.04 trillion

KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: Watch $80,400 (next major support) and $83K-$85K zone for potential bounce

White House Delivers Health Update - Trump MRI Shows "Excellent Health"

- President Trump's preventive cardiac MRI shows no arterial narrowing

- "Excellent overall health" confirmed by White House medical team

- Markets shrug off health concerns, focusing on policy agenda

- Tuesday cabinet meeting scheduled with Venezuela security team meeting

💰 TRADING OPPORTUNITIES FOR DECEMBER 2 OPEN

🔴 ENERGY SECTOR - THE CLEAR WINNER

Top Performer: Energy +1.13% leading all sectors

Key Plays:

- Oil (WTI): Entry $58.50-$59.50 | Target: $62.00 (+4.2%) | Stop: $57.00

- Natural Gas: Trading $4.921/MMBTU | December breakout setup

- $XLE (Energy ETF): Strong relative strength, watch for $95.00 breakout

Catalyst: OPEC+ production discipline + Trump energy independence policies + improving demand outlook

🟢 RETAIL & CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY - BLACK FRIDAY WINNERS

Mastercard Black Friday Data:

- Aggregate sales: +4.1% YoY

- Online: +10.4%

- In-store: +1.7%

Top Picks:

- COST (Costco): $Cost has been resilient, watch $900 support | Target: $935 (+3.9%)

- $AMZN: Cyber Monday leader, options flow bullish for weekly calls

- Consumer Discretionary +0.12% - defensive positioning into holidays

🔵 TECH - SELECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES

Apple (AAPL): $279.00 (+1.07%)  

- Trade Setup: Entry $277-$280 | Target: $298 (+6.8%) | Stop: $270

- Multiple intraday wins reported by traders (see masterminds below)

- Apple outperforming mega-caps, solid institutional buying

- Strong call flow at December $285 strikes

NVIDIA (NVDA): $179.00 (+1.36%)  

- Caution Zone: Down 14-15% from October peak near $212

- Synopsys deal ($2B investment) shows commitment to AI ecosystem

- Google TPU competition concerns overblown - Nvidia platform dominance intact

- Trade Setup: Watch $175 support | Bounce target: $195 (+8.9%) | Risk: $168

Intel (INTC): $38.50-$39.00 calls showing +119% gains for whales

- Unusual flow for half-day session

- December 5 expiry calls heavily accumulated

⚠️ BITCOIN & CRYPTO - EXTREME CAUTION

Bitcoin (BTC): $85,800  

- DO NOT CHASE - wait for confirmed support at $86K or $83K-$85K zone

- Fed liquidity tailwind (QT ending today) vs. ETF outflows battle

- December historically mixed for BTC (only 4.8% average gain)

- Trade: Only for experienced traders - tight stops essential

Key Crypto Levels:

- Support: $86,000 (critical), then $83,000-$85,000

- Resistance: $91,000-$93,000, then $97,100 (breakdown invalidation)

- Ethereum (ETH): $2,830 (-6%), watching $2,600 support

Strategy: Sideline cash until Fear & Greed improves or clear bottom forms

📈 SECTOR ROTATION & MONEY FLOW ANALYSIS

BULLISH SECTORS (Leading into December):

1. Energy: +1.13% - Clear leadership, oil recovery narrative

2. Materials: +0.14% - Commodity bounce, inflation hedge

3. Consumer Discretionary: +0.12% - Holiday spending resilience

4. Consumer Staples: +0.06% - Defensive positioning

BEARISH SECTORS (Avoid/Fade):

1. Utilities: -2.02% - Rate cut uncertainty weighs heavily

2. Real Estate: -0.97% - REIT weakness on Fed policy

3. Industrials: -1.04% - Tariff concerns persist

4. Healthcare: -1.21% - Sector rotation out continues

5. Financials: -0.62% - Bank stocks under pressure

6. Communication Services: -0.41% - Big tech drag

Money Rotation Insight:

- From: Growth/Tech → Defensives

- Into: Energy, selective cyclicals, quality large-caps

- Watch: If Hassett confirmed as Fed Chair, expect rotation BACK into risk assets Q1 2026

🎯 HIGH-CONVICTION TRADES FOR DECEMBER 2

Trade #1: Energy Sector Momentum Play ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  

Rating: 9/10

- Play: $XLE Energy ETF calls, December 20 expiry

- Entry: $92.00-$93.00

- Target: $97.00 (+4.3%)

- Stop Loss: $89.50 (-3.8%)

- Catalyst: Oil at $59.32, winter demand, OPEC discipline

- Conviction: Highest - Energy is THE sector to own right now

Trade #2: Apple Call Spread ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rating: 8/10

- Ticker: AAPL

- Entry: $279.00 (current)

- Structure: Buy Dec 13 $285 calls / Sell $295 calls

- Target: $290 (+3.9%) by Dec 10

- Stop: $272 (-2.5%)

- Catalyst: iPhone 17 cycle building, AI services momentum, Buffett stake irrelevant

Trade #3: S&P 500 Santa Rally Setup ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rating: 7.5/10

- Ticker: SPY

- Entry: $678-$682 (scale in on dips)

- Target: $6,877 ES futures / SPY $700 (+2.6%)

- Stop: Below $6,805 ES / SPY $670

- Timeframe: December 9-20 (FOMC to Christmas)

- Catalyst: December is 3rd best month historically, Fed cut likely

Trade #4: Nvidia Bounce Play (AGGRESSIVE) ⭐⭐⭐

Rating: 6/10 - High Risk/Reward

- Ticker: NVDA

- Entry: $177-$180 (current zone)

- Target: $195 (+9.2%)

- Stop: $172 (-4%)

- Catalyst: Synopsys $2B partnership, Google TPU fears overdone

- Warning: Only for traders with tight risk management

Trade #5: Short Bitcoin (Hedge Position) ⭐⭐⭐

Rating: 6.5/10 - Hedge/Protection

- Ticker: Bitcoin or MSTR puts

- Setup: BTC fails to hold $86K = target $80,400

- Entry: Short if BTC closes below $85,500

- Target: $80,400 (-6%)

- Stop: Above $88,000

- Purpose: Portfolio hedge if crypto contagion spreads

📊 ECONOMIC CALENDAR - DECEMBER 2-6

Monday, December 2:

- No major releases - Cyber Monday retail data watch

### Tuesday, December 3:

- Trump Cabinet Meeting

- Trump "Accounts Announcement" (potentially Fed Chair reveal)

- JOLTs Job Openings (November)

Wednesday, December 4:

- ADP Employment Report

- ISM Services PMI

- Fed Beige Book (2:00 PM ET)

Thursday, December 5:

- Initial Jobless Claims

- Productivity & Costs

Friday, December 6:

- JOBS REPORT (8:30 AM ET) - Biggest event of week

- Nonfarm Payrolls

- Unemployment Rate

- Average Hourly Earnings

CRITICAL: Fed decision December 9-10 FOMC meeting - 87.6% odds of 25 bps cut

🔍 MASTERMIND INSIGHTS - WHAT TOP TRADERS ARE SAYING

From MIGHTYMO (@ROBTHEMARKET):

> "While others were having fun last Saturday, I was working hard studying the market. Has paid off today with 4-figure gains on a down day! $GME $PLTR $AAPL $RETL $SPY calls - not luck, hard work!"

Trades closed today:

- SPY calls (679 & 683 strikes) - BIG GAINS

- AAPL multiple rounds - ALL WINNERS

- SOXL, TQQQ - profitable

- PLTR, GME - wins

Key Takeaway: Even on choppy low-volume days, skilled traders finding setups. AAPL showing repeated intraday opportunities.

From Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) - ES Futures:

> "6805 support held EXACT. 6825 reclaim triggered long with targets 6834, 6841, 6847 - ALL HIT. Building new flag after 300-point rally. Don't overtrade, hold runners."

ES_F Key Levels:

- Support: 6,805

- Resistance: 6,847 (hit), 6,858, 6,877 next

- Pattern: Consolidation/flag after massive 5-day rally

From Jason (@3PeaksTrading):

> "$AAPL going zoom zoom to highs after giant bull flows this morning... $RIVN staying a beast lately, 8000 Dec $18 calls buying"

Options Flow Highlights:

- AAPL seeing consistent call sweeps

- RIVN momentum continuing

- SPY put flow picking up (Powell fears)

From Longbow (@myLongbow) - Sector Commentary:

> "Black Friday sales up y/y per Mastercard. Online retailers hopeful for Cyber Monday continuation. Retailers catering to teens/20-somethings did really well on traffic."

Retail Insight: K-shaped economy continues - affluent consumers spending, value-seekers cautious

From The Kobeissi Letter:

> "Global equity market has gone 159 trading days without a -5% pullback - longest since 2016-2018. MSCI ACWI up +28.6% during this streak. Global risk appetite exceptionally robust."

Takeaway: Pullback risk building, but trend remains up. Use dips as buying opportunities.

🏛️ WHITE HOUSE & POLICY IMPACT

December 1 Press Conference Highlights:

1. Trump to hold cabinet meeting Tuesday

2. Announcement on "Trump accounts" coming Tuesday

3. Venezuela National Security Team meeting scheduled

4. Ukraine delegation talks in Florida described as "very good"

5. Afghanistan immigrants being reexamined - mass deportation operation continues

Market Impact Assessment:

Neutral-to-Positive:

- Health confirmation removes uncertainty

- Fed Chair clarity coming (biggest impact)

- No major policy shocks announced

Watch For:

- Supreme Court decision on tariff legality (weeks away)

- Income tax cut proposals (tariff revenue-funded)

- Brazil tariff adjustments (selective relief)

🎄 DECEMBER SEASONALITY & SANTA RALLY SETUP

Historical December Performance:

- S&P 500: +1.2% average, 72% win rate since 1950

- 3rd best month for both Dow and S&P 500

- Post-Thanksgiving 2 weeks historically strongest period

2025 Setup Factors:

BULLISH:

✅ Fed QT officially ENDS today (December 1) - liquidity supportive  

✅ Rate cut likely Dec 9-10 (87.6% probability)  

✅ Strong corporate earnings outlook for Q4  

✅ Zweig Thrust still in play (5-day rally sets up continuation)  

✅ Low volume consolidation = fuel for next leg up  

BEARISH:

⚠️ November closed negative (when Nov red, December 100% red historically)  

⚠️ Valuation stretched (S&P 500 near 6,850)  

⚠️ Crypto contagion risk if BTC breaks $80K  

⚠️ Fed "shadow chair" uncertainty until announcement  

NET ASSESSMENT: 60/40 bullish bias for December, but volatility expected. Best strategy: Buy dips, don't chase, respect support levels.

💎 TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES

Prediction Markets Explosion:

Robinhood ($HOOD):

- November: 3 BILLION contracts traded (+20% from October)

- 9.5 billion contracts all-time

- New event "YES/NO" livestream December 16

- This is becoming a $1B+ business for HOOD

Kalshi:

- Launching tokenized event contracts on Solana

- Fed Chair odds: Hassett 79%, Warsh 13%, Waller 8%

Trade Setup: HOOD call spreads for prediction market growth story

Strategy Stock (MSTR) - BLOOD IN STREETS:

Current Situation:

- Down -57% from October highs

- Trading $165.92 (52-week low)

- Market cap $10B LESS than Bitcoin holdings

- Company holds 650,000 BTC (3.1% of total supply)

Updated Guidance:

- BTC price assumption lowered: $85K-$110K (from $150K)

- FY2025 EPS: ($17) to $19 (down from $80)

- Established $1.44B cash reserve

Trade: ONLY for risk-tolerant traders

- Entry: $160-$170 (current)

- Target: $220 (+29%) on BTC recovery

- Stop: $145 (-12%)

- Benchmark maintains $705 price target

🚀 OPTIONS FLOW & UNUSUAL ACTIVITY

Today's Standout Flow:

1. INTC (Intel):

   - Dec 5 $38.5 & $39 calls up +119%

   - Whales still holding positions

   - Unusual activity for half-day session

2. TSLA (Tesla):

   - $100M gamma exposure at $450 strike

   - "Can bulls run it back like last time?"

   - Michael Burry called TSLA "ridiculously overvalued" (fade Burry)

3. RIVN (Rivian):

   - 8,000 Dec $18 calls buying at $0.86

   - Momentum beast continues

4. MSTR (Strategy):

   - 1,300 May $305 calls SOLD at $8.65 (IV spike)

   - Reversal candle forming off lows

5. SPY (S&P 500):

   - Heavy put flow coming in

   - Weeklies and monthlies

   - "Powell fears" positioning

📉 STOCKS TO AVOID / SHORT CANDIDATES

MicroStrategy (MSTR): 

- Down -12% today, -57% from highs

- $10B below NAV of BTC holdings

- High risk until BTC stabilizes

Utilities Sector (XLU):

- Worst performer -2.02%

- Rate cut uncertainty killing dividend appeal

- Avoid until Fed clarity

Real Estate (XLRE):

- Down -0.97%

- REITs struggling with rate environment

- Wait for confirmed Fed easing cycle

Crypto Miners:

- Follow BTC lower

- High leverage = high risk in this environment

🎯 KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR TOMORROW

S&P 500 Futures (ES):

- Support: 6,805 (held today), 6,780, 6,740

- Resistance: 6,847 (tested), 6,858, 6,877, 6,900

- Trend: Consolidation after 5-day rally - respect the range

S&P 500 ETF (SPY):

- Support: $678 (today's low), $675, $670 (critical)

- Resistance: $683 (today's high), $685, $690 (psychological)

- Pattern: Narrow range, low volume - coiling for breakout

NASDAQ (QQQ):

- Support: $615, $612, $608

- Resistance: $620, $625, $630

- Status: Flipped green from red today - bullish sign

### Bitcoin (BTC/USD):

- Critical Support: $86,000 (MUST HOLD)

- Major Support: $83,000-$85,000 (liquidation zone)

- Resistance: $91,000-$93,000, $97,100 (breakdown invalidation)

- 200-Day MA: Around $90,000

🧠 TRADING PSYCHOLOGY & RISK MANAGEMENT

Rules for This Environment:

1. Don't Overtrade: Low volume = choppy price action. Quality over quantity.

2. Respect Support/Resistance: Levels working with precision (see ES 6,805 exact hold)

3. Size Down in Crypto: Extreme volatility = smaller position sizes

4. Use Stops: Even day traders getting stopped out (see MIGHTYMO selling RETL at -1%)

5. Scale Entries: Don't go all-in at once. Dollar-cost average positions.

6. Take Profits: Lock in gains when you have them. Multiple traders booking 3-figure and 4-figure days.

7. Stay Flexible: "While others were having fun, I was studying" - preparation pays off

📚 EDUCATION OPPORTUNITY

Want to learn how top traders like MIGHTYMO, Jason, and Adam Mancini consistently profit?

Join aitradingskool.com for:

- Live market analysis daily

- Real-time trade alerts

- Options flow education

- Technical analysis masterclasses

- Community of active traders

No hype, no fake results - just real traders, real education, real community.

🎬 TRADE RECAP - WHAT WORKED TODAY

Winners:

✅ Energy stocks (sector +1.13%)  

✅ AAPL multiple intraday scalps  

✅ SPY call scalps on morning bounce  

✅ Short SQQQ hedge positions  

✅ Oil/gas commodities  

Losers:

❌ Bitcoin and all crypto (-5% to -12%)  

❌ Utilities stocks (-2.02%)  

❌ MicroStrategy (MSTR) -12%  

❌ Small-cap growth (worst performing)  

❌ Chasing momentum without stops  

📊 OVERNIGHT & PRE-MARKET WATCH

What to Monitor Before Open:

1. Fed Chair News: Any Trump announcement = major volatility

2. Bitcoin Price: If BTC breaks $85K, expect ripple effects

3. Asian Markets: China/Japan open in hours - watch risk sentiment

4. Futures Action: ES holding 6,805? QQQ holding 615?

5. Oil Prices: Momentum continuation or profit-taking?

Pre-Market Movers (Monday AM):

- Tech stocks if crypto stabilizes

- Energy if oil holds gains

- Retail if Cyber Monday data strong

- Fed Chair beneficiaries if announcement comes

🎯 DECEMBER 2 TRADING PLAN

Primary Strategy: SELECTIVE LONG BIAS

Morning (9:30-11:00 AM):

- Watch opening range 9:30-10:00 AM

- If SPY holds $678, look for long entries

- If breaks down, wait for retest of support

- Don't chase breakouts without confirmation

Midday (11:00 AM-2:00 PM):

- Lowest volume period - avoid overtrading

- Use for planning, not execution

- Watch energy sector for continuation

Power Hour (2:00-3:00 PM):

- Institutions show their hands

- Volume picks up - follow smart money

- SPY often makes its move here

Final Hour (3:00-4:00 PM):

- High risk/high reward

- Use tight stops

- Don't hold risky overnight positions

💼 PORTFOLIO POSITIONING GUIDANCE

Recommended Allocation (December 2025):

Aggressive Trader:

- 40% Cash (dry powder for dips)

- 30% Long equities (AAPL, Energy, selective tech)

- 20% Options (directional plays, spreads)

- 10% Hedges (VIX calls, puts, inverse ETFs)

- 0% Crypto (sideline until $86K holds)

Conservative Investor:

- 50% Cash / Money Market

- 30% S&P 500 / Mega-cap tech

- 15% Dividend stocks / Defensive sectors

- 5% Gold (hedge against volatility)

- 0% Speculative plays

Crypto Trader:

- 70% Cash (WAIT for setup)

- 20% Bitcoin IF holds $86K (tight stop $83K)

- 10% Ethereum / Major alts

- NO leveraged positions

- NO meme coins / low caps

🔔 ALERTS TO SET

Price Alerts:

- SPY: $675 (support break), $690 (breakout)

- BTC: $86,000 (critical hold), $83,000 (major support)

- ES Futures: 6,805 (support), 6,877 (resistance)

- AAPL: $285 (target), $270 (stop consideration)

- NVDA: $175 (support), $195 (bounce target)

News Alerts:

- Trump Fed Chair announcement

- December 6 Jobs Report release

- Bitcoin breaking $85K or $90K

- Fed official speeches this week

- Supreme Court tariff decision (watch for)

🎯 FINAL THOUGHTS & STRATEGY

The Big Picture:

We're at a critical inflection point:

1. Fed Chair Transition: Biggest monetary policy shift in years coming. Hassett = dovish pivot = bullish for risk assets 2026.

2. Bitcoin Capitulation: $86K is the line in the sand. Break = $80K target. Hold = $93K bounce. Stay disciplined.

3. December Seasonality: History says rally. 2025 setup says cautious. Respect both.

4. Sector Leadership Clear: Energy is THE sector. Tech is selective (AAPL works, NVDA risky). Utilities/REITs avoid.

5. Volume Matters: Today's low volume = chop. Wait for Dec 6 Jobs Report for real direction.

Winning Trader Mindset:

- "I posted several times during Sunday futures that the market was wrong. It should be UP not Down. Me vs the crowd. I WON!" - MIGHTYMO

The lesson: Do your homework. Trust your analysis. Don't follow the herd. Take profits when you have them.

This Week's Game Plan:

Monday-Tuesday: Cyber Monday data, await Fed Chair news  

Wednesday: Fed Beige Book, position for Jobs Report  

Thursday: Jobless Claims, final setup  

Friday: JOBS REPORT - biggest volatility day  

Risk Management Rule:

Never risk more than 2% of your account on any single trade. Period. No exceptions.

📞 STAY CONNECTED

Follow our traders for real-time alerts:

- @ROBTHEMARKET (MIGHTYMO) - Intraday scalps

- @AdamMancini4 - ES Futures precision

- @3PeaksTrading (Jason) - Options flow

- @TheKobeissiLetter - Macro analysis

- @DeItaone (Walter Bloomberg) - Breaking news

Join our community at aitradingskool.com for live trading education, real-time analysis, and a group of serious traders executing every day.

⚖️ DISCLAIMER

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. The trades and opinions shared represent the views of individual traders and do not constitute professional investment advice.

Price data verified as of December 1, 2025 market close. Cryptocurrency prices are volatile and may differ from quoted levels. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

DCG COMMAND CENTER traders are real people making real trades every day. Results will vary based on skill, risk tolerance, and market conditions. There are no guarantees in trading.

🎯 TOMORROW'S FOCUS

1. Watch Fed Chair news

2. Bitcoin $86K test

3. Cyber Monday retail data

4. Energy sector continuation

5. ES 6,805 support hold

Stay sharp. Stay disciplined. See you at the open. 🚀

Newsletter compiled by:* DCG Command Center Analysis Team  

Date: December 1, 2025  

Next Edition: December 8, 2025 (Post-Jobs Report / FOMC Preview)

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