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- 🚀 GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS SURGE AS TECH GIANTS RALLY: Iran Standoff, Fed Policy Hold, and Crypto Capitulation Set Stage for Volatile Wednesday Session
🚀 GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS SURGE AS TECH GIANTS RALLY: Iran Standoff, Fed Policy Hold, and Crypto Capitulation Set Stage for Volatile Wednesday Session
🚨 DCG COMMAND CENTER TRADING NEWSLETTER 🚨I Wednesday, February 11, 2026 | Pre-Market Intelligence Report
📊 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW
🎯 GEOPOLITICAL ESCALATION: Trump threatens second carrier deployment to Middle East if Iran talks fail - major defense sector catalyst brewing
💹 TECH SECTOR RESURGENCE: Software names explode higher - DDOG +16.3%, SPOT +17%, Oracle rallies as AI panic subsides
🏦 FED HOLDS FIRM: Multiple Fed officials signal extended pause, inflation concerns persist, rates staying "higher for longer"
💎 CRYPTO EXTREME FEAR: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index hits 9/100 - historically strong contrarian buy signal as BTC tests $69K support
📈 MARKET BREADTH SURGE: Record $1 trillion daily trading volume, homebuilders leading with 13/13 stocks positive
🔥 BREAKING: TUESDAY'S MARKET CLOSE (Feb 10, 2026)
Major Indices - Last Close:
SPY: $693.68 (Range: $688.00 - $695.87) | +0.48% recovery bounce
QQQ: $614.32 | +0.77% tech rebound
DIA: $502.10 | +0.18% Dow strength
IWM: Russell 2000 holding support at key levels
Key Individual Movers:
DDOG (Datadog): +16.3% 🚀 (Earnings beat - $953M revenue vs $917M est)
SPOT (Spotify): +17.0% 🎵 (751M users, beat 745M estimate)
ORCL (Oracle): +7.0% (Recovering from AI selloff)
NVDA (Nvidia): +2.5% (H200 chip license news)
TSLA (Tesla): +1.51% (Semi pricing at $290K announced)
FISV (Fiserv): +4.91%
MU (Micron): +2.84% (Presentation tomorrow - watch closely)
💼 WHITE HOUSE & POLITICAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
Trump Administration Market Movers (Feb 10, 2026):
🔴 IRAN CRISIS ESCALATION:
Trump considering second aircraft carrier deployment to Middle East
Direct quote: "Either we reach a deal or we'll have to do something very tough"
Second round of US-Iran talks expected next week
DEFENSE TRADE: Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman on watch
💵 TREASURY POLICY:
Bessent calls for crypto market structure legislation - Major institutional catalyst
Treasury Secretary optimistic on Russia-Ukraine situation
US-China relationship described as "in a very comfortable place"
📊 COMMERCE SECRETARY LUTNICK KEY STATEMENTS:
Q4 GDP growth projected "over 5%"
Q1 2026 could see "over 6% growth"
"American demand for AI chips is vast - won't stand in their way"
Nvidia and China must adhere to H200 chip license terms
Dollar manipulation comments: "Dollar was manipulated higher over many years"
🏛️ GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN RISK:
67.7% odds of shutdown starting Feb 14 (Kalshi prediction markets)
TSA, FEMA, ICE, Border Patrol operations at risk
ICE Director warns terrorism task forces would be "hit hardest"
📈 SECTOR ROTATION & MONEY FLOW ANALYSIS
🟢 BULLISH SECTORS (Tuesday Leaders):
1. SOFTWARE & APPLICATION PLATFORMS ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
DDOG: +16.3% to $132.59 (Q4 beat, guidance strong)
SPOT: +17.0% to $485.39 (Record user growth)
NOW: ServiceNow leading enterprise software
Application Software: 16/17 UP
Catalyst: AI panic subsiding, earnings beats restoring confidence
2. HOMEBUILDERS 🏠⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
13 of 13 HOMEBUILDERS UP
$XHB (Homebuilders ETF) breaking cup-and-handle pattern
$NAIL (3x Homebuilders) surging
TOL (Toll Brothers): Strong momentum
Rising March rate cut odds fueling sector
Catalyst: Fed pause narrative + rate cut speculation
3. FINTECH & LENDING 💳⭐⭐⭐⭐
9/10 Fintech Lenders UP
AFRM (Affirm): Leading the pack
FISV +4.91% to $63.09
Catalyst: Credit expansion cycle beginning
4. TRAVEL & HOSPITALITY ✈️⭐⭐⭐⭐
Airlines/Hotels: 12/14 UP
MAR (Marriott): +9%
Catalyst: Summer travel bookings accelerating
5. CYBERSECURITY 🔒⭐⭐⭐⭐
12/13 Cybersecurity stocks UP
MDB (MongoDB) leading
Catalyst: Ongoing threat landscape + enterprise spending
6. UTILITIES ⚡⭐⭐⭐⭐
+1.92% sector performance
Defensive rotation into stable dividend payers
AI data center power demand narrative
🔴 BEARISH SECTORS (Under Pressure):
1. FINANCIALS 📉
-1.25% sector decline
Regional banks under pressure
Interest rate sensitivity concerns
2. HEALTH CARE 💊📉
-0.06% slight decline
Sector consolidation ongoing
3. ENERGY ⛽📉
-0.07% marginal weakness
Oil prices mixed despite Iran tensions
4. TECHNOLOGY (Select Names) 💻📉
IRE (Ireland tech): -8.82%
AI-exposed names still digesting selloff
Exception: Cloud infrastructure recovering
🔥 KEY CATALYST TRADES FOR WEDNESDAY (FEB 11)
1. GEOPOLITICAL DEFENSE PLAY 🎖️
BULLISH SETUP: Iran Escalation / Carrier Deployment
Tickers: LMT, RTX, NOC, GD, BA (defense)
Entry Strategy: Scale into defense names on any pre-market dip
Catalyst: Second carrier deployment news could trigger 5-10% defense rally
Risk: Peace talks breakthrough would reverse trade
2. FED POLICY HOLD BENEFICIARIES 🏦
Rate-Sensitive Winners:
Homebuilders: XHB, TOL, DHI, LEN (March rate cut odds rising to ~35%)
REITs: VNQ, O, VICI (stable rates = dividend appeal)
Regional Banks: KRE (if shutdown avoided, relief rally possible)
Entry: Buy dips in homebuilders, rates staying accommodative longer
3. EARNINGS MOMENTUM CONTINUATION 📊
Post-Earnings Strength:
DDOG sympathy plays: ESTC (Elastic), SUMO, FROG (JFrog)
SPOT sympathy: RBLX (Roblox), PINS (Pinterest) - social/entertainment
Oracle recovery: AVGO, CRM, NOW (enterprise software rotation)
MU Presentation Play: Watch Tuesday 2/11 presentation - semi sector catalyst
4. CRYPTO CAPITULATION BOUNCE 🪙
Extreme Fear = Contrarian Setup:
BTC: $69,111 (9/100 Fear Index - historically strong buy signal)
Support Zone: $68K-$69K critical - hold = bounce to $72K-$75K
ETH: $2,016 (oversold, potential 10-15% relief rally)
SOL: $84.20 (brutal -16% week, but $80-90 support holding)
Equity Proxies: MSTR, COIN, RIOT, MARA (all compressed)
Strategy: Scale into BTC on $68K+ holds, tight stops below
Treasury Secretary Bessent Catalyst:
Calls for crypto market structure legislation
Major institutional unlock if passed
Stablecoin plays: USDC, PYUSD beneficiaries
Discord Trading Floor Chatter:
BEARISH SENTIMENT THEMES:
"Most signs still pointing lower" - Ryan Detrick watching 100-day MA breaks
Student loan delinquencies hit 16.3% (record high)
Consumer delinquencies at 4.8% (highest since 2017)
Credit card delinquencies: 12.7%
Auto loan delinquencies: 5.2%
BULLISH UNDERCURRENTS:
"Number of bankruptcies fell last quarter" - doesn't fit recession narrative
Foreclosures still below 2019 levels
Small-cap profits climbing and beating expectations
$SPX 8-hour consolidation = coiling for move
TICK breadth holding firm (+789 highs, only -314 lows)
KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS (Adam Mancini):
ES Futures: 7006 target hit, now watching 6970-6998 chop zone
Next resistance: 7011, 7014, 7017-7022
"As warned, there is nothing to do now...Just hold runner"
Wait for elevator-down volatility before re-engaging
OPTION FLOW HIGHLIGHTS:
NVDA: 6,750 June $310 calls bought at $0.95 (right tail bet on AI recovery)
TSM: Massive short puts in open interest (bullish positioning)
TSLA: Put/Call ratio 16K/108K (skewed bullish)
LULU: $450K put buyer, 2/27 expiry (bearish short-term)
SPY: Feb 20 expiry has 102K calls - potential pinning magnet at that strike
Sam Bankman-Fried News:
Filed for retrial in FTX fraud case
Claims new witness testimony undermines prosecution
Crypto sentiment slightly dampened by reminder of 2022 collapse
📰 EARNINGS & CORPORATE NEWS ROUNDUP
Tuesday After-Hours Beats:
DATADOG (DDOG) - MONSTER BEAT 🚀
EPS: $0.59 vs $0.56 est (Beat)
Revenue: $953.19M vs $916.58M est (Beat)
Stock: +16.3% to $132.59
Guidance: Q1 sales above estimates
Sympathy Plays: ESTC, SUMO, FROG, DDOG competitors under pressure from OpenAI shift narrative reversed
SPOTIFY (SPOT) - RECORD USER GROWTH 🎵
Users: 751M vs 745.2M est (Beat by 5.8M)
Added: 38M users in Q4 (record quarter)
Stock: +17.0% to $485.39
Guidance: Strong Q1 outlook
Sympathy: RBLX, WBD (Warner Bros Discovery), entertainment tech
TESLA (TSLA) - SEMI PRICING
Semi Long Range priced at $290,000 (up 60% from original $180K promise)
Standard Range: $260,000
Still undercuts Class 8 electric truck average ($435K) by $145K
Volume production expected THIS YEAR
California HVIP vouchers reducing effective costs
4-year payback vs diesel for local distribution
Upcoming Catalysts:
WEDNESDAY (Feb 11):
MU (Micron): Presentation at 2:30pm EST - HIGH WATCH
Recent news headwinds on AI chip concerns
Could be positive catalyst if they address concerns
Semi sector sympathy: NVDA, AMD, TSM, AVGO
ECONOMIC DATA (This Week):
Jobs report upcoming (market-moving)
Inflation data pending
Business inventories +0.1% (below +0.2% consensus - mild concern)
FED SPEAKERS (Recent):
Hammack: "Policy could stay on hold for quite some time"
Logan: "Near neutral, cuts may not be needed"
Both: Concerned about inflation staying stubbornly high
Risk: Inflation could stick at 3% this year
🌍 GLOBAL MACRO & GEOPOLITICAL UPDATE
Iran Situation (CRITICAL):
Trump: "Might send second carrier to strike Iran if talks fail"
Second round of talks expected next week
Israeli PM Netanyahu visiting Washington
Iran insists talks limited to nuclear program only
US wants broader terms
Market Impact: Defense stocks bid, oil volatility, safe-haven flows
US-China Relations:
Bessent: "US-China relationship in very comfortable place"
Lutnick: "Complex and nuanced, Trump leading it"
Nvidia/China H200 chip license terms enforcement ongoing
No major new tariff escalation
Government Shutdown:
67.7% probability of Feb 14 shutdown (up 4.8%)
Democrats seeking ICE operation limits in funding talks
Homeland Security warns of security risks
TSA, FEMA, Border Patrol, ICE all affected
International:
Venezuela: First crude cargo to Israel after Maduro ouster
UK: PM Starmer confirms he'll lead Labour into next election
Google/Alphabet: Secured unconditional EU approval for $32B Wiz acquisition
💰 CRYPTO MARKET DEEP DIVE
Bitcoin Analysis:
Price: $69,111 | Fear Index: 9/100 (Extreme Fear)
Support/Resistance:
Critical Support: $68,000-$69,000 zone (MUST HOLD)
Resistance: $72,000 then $75,000
52-Week Range: $60,187 - $126,186
On-Chain Metrics:
Liquidations: $2B+ in positions liquidated since Thursday
Selling Pressure: Forced liquidations creating cascading effect
Volume: $25.87B (24h) - elevated liquidation volume
Bullish Case:
Extreme Fear (9/100) historically marks bottoms
Treasury Secretary calling for crypto legislation
Interactive Brokers expanding crypto futures (Coinbase partnership)
Holding above $68K would confirm support
Target: $72K-$75K relief rally (5-8% upside)
Bearish Case:
Break below $68K opens $65K-$60K downside
Macro risk-off sentiment
Correlation with tech stocks still elevated
Some analysts calling for $40K (John Blank, Zacks)
Ethereum (ETH):
Price: $2,016 | Down 4.72%
Technical Setup:
Former support now resistance
Short-term bullish structure forming
Upside Cap: $2,500-$2,600 unless stronger buying
Critical Support: $1,500-$1,600 range
Oversold on multiple timeframes
Solana (SOL):
Price: $84.20 | Down 16.2% (7-day)
Current State:
Clear downtrend, recently broke descending channel
Support Zone: $80-$90 (currently holding)
Next Downside: $70-$65 if support breaks
Resistance: $100 (bulls must reclaim)
Down 37.4% in last 30 days
Institutional Note:
Spot Solana ETFs now >$1B AUM (Bitwise BSOL, Fidelity FSOL)
Morgan Stanley filed for Solana Trust
Forward Industries holding 6.9M SOL (~$1B)
Stablecoin News:
Fed's Hammack: "Hard time seeing domestic benefit of stablecoins"
Fed's Hammack: "Optimistic stablecoins won't compete with deposits"
Regulatory clarity needed - Bessent legislation call positive
Market Structure:
Interactive Brokers + Coinbase: Nano Bitcoin & Ether futures launching
Expanding institutional access
CME Single Stock Futures coming this summer (24/5 trading)
📊 SECTOR PERFORMANCE SCORECARD
Top Performers (Tuesday):
Utilities: +1.92%
Real Estate: +1.30%
Materials: +1.24%
Consumer Discretionary: +0.99%
Communication Services: +0.78%
Bottom Performers:
Financials: -1.25%
Technology: -0.14%
Energy: -0.07%
Health Care: -0.06%
Breadth Indicators:
DJIA: 18 Up / 12 Down (Leaders: DIS, HD)
Nasdaq 100: 60 Up / 40 Down (Leaders: DDOG, MAR, SHOP)
S&P 100: 51 Up / 49 Down (Leaders: NOW, ORCL)
Volume: Record $1.03 trillion/day in January (+50% YoY)
Shares Traded: 19 billion daily average
🎯 S&P 500 FUTURES KEY LEVELS (ES_F)
Current: ~7,000 area
Support Zones:
6,998-6,970: Chop/consolidation range (Adam Mancini)
6,958-6,960: Next support if 6,970 fails
6,945: Major support
6,672: AVWAP from August lows (tested and held)
Resistance Levels:
7,006: Backtests last Tuesday's breakdown (hit!)
7,011: First resistance
7,014: Second resistance
7,017-7,022: Bonus targets
Technical Notes:
8 straight hourly candles within 15 points (extreme compression)
Coiling action suggests volatility expansion coming
Volume increasing on up days (bullish)
TICK breadth holding firm
🔮 OVERNIGHT & PRE-MARKET CATALYSTS
Watch for Wednesday Morning:
Economic Data:
No major releases Wednesday
Jobs data later this week (major market mover)
Fed Speakers:
Monitor for any additional commentary on policy stance
Inflation concerns vs growth optimism tension
Geopolitical:
Iran news flow (carrier deployment decision)
Government shutdown negotiations
Any China/Taiwan developments
Earnings:
MU presentation (2:30pm EST) - CRITICAL for semi sector
Any pre-market earnings surprises
Crypto:
BTC holding $68K+ = bullish continuation
Break below $68K = risk-off into equities
💡 TRADING STRATEGIES FOR WEDNESDAY
BULLISH PLAYS:
1. Software Recovery Continuation
Ride DDOG, SPOT momentum
Sympathy plays: ESTC, SUMO, FROG, RBLX
Enterprise software recovery: NOW, CRM, ORCL
Stop: Below yesterday's lows
2. Homebuilder Breakout
XHB, DHI, LEN, TOL on cup-and-handle completion
March rate cut odds rising
Entry: Pullbacks to VWAP
Target: 5-8% extension
3. Defense Geopolitical Premium
LMT, RTX, NOC on Iran escalation
Scale into any pre-market weakness
Catalyst: Carrier deployment announcement
Stop: 3-5% below entry
4. Crypto Bounce Trade
BTC above $69K for $72K-$75K target
MSTR, COIN equity proxies
Tight stops: $68K break invalidates
BEARISH/HEDGES:
1. Put Protection
SPY Feb 20 expiry puts (102K OI at key strike)
QQQ hedges if tech fails to follow through
VIX: Currently 17.36 - still elevated
2. Short High-Flyers Post-Earnings
Names that gapped but failed to hold (check intraday action)
Fade parabolic moves in low-quality names
3. Sector Rotation Shorts
Financials weakness continuation
Energy if oil doesn't follow Iran tensions
🚨 RISK MANAGEMENT NOTES
Major Risks for Wednesday:
⚠️ Geopolitical:
Iran situation escalation = immediate risk-off
Government shutdown = volatility spike
Unexpected China/Taiwan news
⚠️ Technical:
ES breaking below 6,970 triggers next leg down
BTC breaking $68K = crypto contagion risk
Volume expansion on sell-off = acceleration
⚠️ Macro:
Fed speakers turning more hawkish
Inflation data coming hotter than expected
Jobs data miss later this week
⚠️ Sentiment:
Extreme Fear in crypto could spread to equities
Consumer delinquencies rising (recession signal)
Student loan crisis intensifying
Position Sizing:
Standard: 25-30% per position max
High-Risk Setups: 15-20% max (crypto, geopolitical plays)
Core Holdings: 30-40% (quality software, homebuilders)
Cash: Keep 20-30% dry powder for volatility
📈 BULLISH MARKET SENTIMENT SUMMARY
Why Bulls Are In Control:
Earnings beats crushing estimates (DDOG, SPOT examples)
Fed staying on hold = stability
Sector rotation healthy (homebuilders, utilities leading)
Record trading volume = strong liquidity
Breadth improving (60/40 Nasdaq, 18/12 Dow)
Bankruptcies declining despite recession fears
Small-cap profits accelerating
Technical: Key support levels holding
🐻 BEARISH MARKET SENTIMENT SUMMARY
Why Bears Have Case:
Consumer debt delinquencies at decade highs
Student loans 16.3% delinquent (record)
Credit cards 12.7% delinquent
American optimism at record low (59.2%, lowest in 20 years)
Government shutdown 67.7% odds
Crypto extreme fear spreading
Iran war risk premium rising
Fed worried inflation stuck at 3%
Unsustainable fiscal path (Fed officials warning)
🎓 EDUCATION: UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT MARKET
What Is Driving Markets Right Now?
1. AI Narrative Stabilization: After panic selling on fears AI agents would commoditize software, earnings from DDOG and others prove specialized platforms still essential. The "AI will replace everything" fear is morphing into "AI enhances everything" reality.
2. Rate Cut Expectations Shift: Market initially priced 5-6 cuts in 2024. Now at 0-1 cuts. But "higher for longer" is getting priced more accurately, which helps rate-sensitive sectors (homebuilders, REITs) find bottoms.
3. Geopolitical Risk Premium: Iran situation adding defense sector bid. If tensions ease = remove premium. If escalates = further upside in defense.
4. Crypto Capitulation: When Fear & Greed hits single digits (9/100), historically marks strong 1-3 month buying opportunity. Question is whether this time is different given macro headwinds.
5. Government Dysfunction: Shutdown risk, debt ceiling debates, political gridlock = uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty. Resolution typically = relief rally.
🌟 FINAL TRADE PLAN FOR WEDNESDAY
Pre-Market (8:00 AM - 9:30 AM):
Monitor futures reaction to overnight news
Watch BTC $69K level closely
Check for any Fed speaker headlines
MU presentation prep and positioning
Market Open (9:30 AM - 10:30 AM):
First 30 min: Let volatility settle
Watch DDOG, SPOT follow-through or fade
Monitor defense stocks for geopolitical premium
Track homebuilder strength into opening hour
Mid-Day (10:30 AM - 2:00 PM):
Execute swing entries on confirmed trends
Scale into crypto if BTC holds $69K
Prepare for MU presentation (2:30pm)
Afternoon (2:00 PM - 4:00 PM):
2:30 PM: MU presentation - key catalyst
Monitor for late-day institutional flows
Prepare overnight positions
Review Iran news headlines
After-Hours:
Check for any Wednesday evening earnings
Monitor crypto overnight action
Set alerts for BTC $68K/$72K levels
🎯 TOP 5 HIGH-CONVICTION TRADES
1. DATADOG (DDOG) Momentum Continuation ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Catalyst: Earnings beat, guidance raise, AI narrative shift
Risk/Reward: 1.5:1
2. Homebuilder ETF (XHB) Cup-and-Handle ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Catalyst: March rate cut speculation, Fed pause
Risk/Reward: 2:1
3. Bitcoin (BTC) Extreme Fear Bounce ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Catalyst: 9/100 Fear Index, Bessent crypto legislation
Risk/Reward: 3:1
Warning: High volatility, size accordingly
4. Defense Sector (LMT, RTX) Iran Premium ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Catalyst: Trump second carrier decision
Risk/Reward: 2:1
5. Micron (MU) Presentation Recovery ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Catalyst: Addressing AI chip concerns
Risk/Reward: 1.5:1
High Risk: Could go either way
🔔 KEY ALERTS TO SET
BTC: Alert at $68,000 (break = sell signal) and $72,000 (target hit)
ES Futures: 6,970 (support test) and 7,011 (resistance)
VIX: Above 20 = risk-off acceleration
DXY: Dollar strength = headwind for risk assets
MU: Set alert for 2:30pm presentation start
News: Iran carrier deployment announcement
News: Government shutdown deadline developments
💬 COMMUNITY MESSAGE
To Our DCG Trading Family:
This market is offering incredible opportunities for those who stay disciplined. The extreme fear in crypto at 9/100 doesn't happen often - historically these are the setups that define yearly P&L.
The geopolitical situation demands respect - don't chase defense stocks into news, let them come to you. The homebuilder setup is textbook - cup-and-handle with fundamental tailwinds.
And remember what Adam Mancini said: "As warned, there is nothing to do now. Just hold runner." Don't overtrade the chop. Wait for your pitch.
We're traders, not gamblers. Every position needs a stop. Every trade needs a catalyst. Every risk needs sizing.
Wednesday could be volatile with the Iran situation developing. Protect your capital first, opportunities second.
Let's execute with precision.
Join the conversation and daily trading insights at aitradingskool.com 🎓
📊 QUICK REFERENCE: WEDNESDAY WATCH LIST
Longs:
DDOG, SPOT, ESTC, SUMO (software bounce)
XHB, DHI, LEN, TOL (homebuilders)
LMT, RTX, NOC (defense)
BTC, MSTR, COIN (crypto bounce)
MU (presentation play)
MAR, airlines (travel)
Shorts/Hedges:
SPY/QQQ puts for protection
Financials (KRE weakness)
Parabolic faders post-earnings
Watch Only:
NVDA (awaiting earnings 2/25)
TSLA (Semi news digesting)
ORCL (recovery continuation?
⚡ FINAL WORD
Market Character: Choppy consolidation with explosive sector rotations. Software finding legs again. Homebuilders breaking out. Crypto in capitulation. Geopolitics heating up. Fed on pause. Earnings beats matter.
Trading Edge: Focus on momentum continuation in proven winners (DDOG, SPOT sympathy), contrarian setups in extreme fear (BTC), and catalyst-driven plays (defense on Iran, homebuilders on rate cuts).
Risk: Don't let FOMO override discipline. The best trades come to you - don't chase.
Wednesday Tone: Cautiously optimistic with selective aggression. 60% bullish, 40% defensive.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management and position sizing.
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